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Conversion Hotel 2018 Keynote: Michael Aagaard

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Conversion Hotel 2018 Keynote: Michael Aagaard

  1. 1. Next Speaker: Michael aagaard (dk) Confirmation Bias Next Speaker:
  2. 2. Your Brain is Lying to You! Become a Better Marketer by Overcoming Confirmation Bias @CONTENTVERVE#CH2018
  3. 3. @CONTENTVERVE#CH2018
  4. 4. @CONTENTVERVE#CH2018
  5. 5. #CH2018
  6. 6. @CONTENTVERVE#CH2018
  7. 7. INFORMATION @CONTENTVERVE#CH2018
  8. 8. CONFIRMATION @CONTENTVERVE#CH2018
  9. 9. CONFIRMATION bias @CONTENTVERVE#CH2018
  10. 10. Dismiss information we don’t agree with - unless the evidence is overwhelming Accept evidence we agree with at face value search for & recall information in ways that confirm our existing beliefs, hypotheses & expectations @CONTENTVERVE#CH2018
  11. 11. Dismiss information we don’t agree with - unless the evidence is overwhelming Accept evidence we agree with at face value search for & recall information in ways that confirm our existing beliefs, hypotheses & expectations @CONTENTVERVE#CH2018
  12. 12. Dismiss information we don’t agree with - unless the evidence is overwhelming Accept evidence we agree with at face value search for & recall information in ways that confirm our existing beliefs, hypotheses & expectations @CONTENTVERVE#CH2018
  13. 13. What the human being is best at doing, is interpreting all new information so that their prior conclusions remain intact. - Warren Buffet “ ” #CH2018
  14. 14. What the human being is best at doing, is interpreting all new information so that their prior conclusions remain intact. - Warren Buffet “ ” #CH2018
  15. 15. limits our capacity for objective analysis @CONTENTVERVE#CH2018
  16. 16. Serious threat to any discipline that seeks to uncover the truth @CONTENTVERVE#CH2018
  17. 17. 2 Confirmation Bias @CONTENTVERVE#CH2018
  18. 18. how to overcome confirmation bias @CONTENTVERVE#CH2018
  19. 19. torturing data @CONTENTVERVE#CH2018
  20. 20. If you torture the data long enough, it will confess to anything. - Ronald Coase - @CONTENTVERVE#CH2018
  21. 21. 93%Correlation http://tylervigen.com/spurious-correlations @CONTENTVERVE
  22. 22. Per Capita Consumption of Mozzarella Cheese Correlates With 93%Correlation http://tylervigen.com/spurious-correlations @CONTENTVERVE
  23. 23. Per Capita Consumption of Mozzarella Cheese Number of people who died by becoming tangled in their bedsheets Correlates With 93%Correlation http://tylervigen.com/spurious-correlations @CONTENTVERVE
  24. 24. People Who Died By Falling Down the Stairs Per Capita Consumption of Mozzarella Cheese Correlates With 95%Correlation http://tylervigen.com/spurious-correlations @CONTENTVERVE
  25. 25. Number of people who died by drowning while in natural water. Per Capita Consumption of Mozzarella Cheese Correlates With 90%Correlation http://tylervigen.com/spurious-correlations @CONTENTVERVE
  26. 26. Per Capita Consumption of Swiss Cheese Number of people who died by drowning while in natural water Correlates With 40%Correlation http://tylervigen.com/spurious-correlations @CONTENTVERVE
  27. 27. CORRELATION DOES NOT EQUAL CAUSATION @CONTENTVERVE#CH2018
  28. 28. Device Users Conversions Conversion Rate All 139,254 4,099 2.94% Mobile 132,420 3,745 2.83% Tablet 3,457 122 3.53% Desktop 3,377 223 6.60% IMPORTANT CAMPAIGN @CONTENTVERVE#CH2018
  29. 29. Device Users Conversions Conversion Rate All 139,254 4,099 2.94% Mobile 132,420 3,745 2.83% Tablet 3,457 122 3.53% Desktop 3,377 223 6.60% IMPORTANT CAMPAIGN @CONTENTVERVE#CH2018
  30. 30. Device Users Conversions Conversion Rate All 139,254 4,099 2.94% Mobile 132,420 3,745 2.83% Tablet 3,457 122 3.53% Desktop 3,377 223 6.60% IMPORTANT CAMPAIGN @CONTENTVERVE#CH2018
  31. 31. Device Users Conversions Conversion Rate All 139,254 4,099 2.94% Mobile 132,420 3,745 2.83% Tablet 3,457 122 3.53% Desktop 3,377 223 6.60% IMPORTANT CAMPAIGN @CONTENTVERVE#CH2018
  32. 32. Device Users Conversions Conversion Rate All 139,254 4,099 2.94% Mobile 132,420 3,745 2.83% Tablet 3,457 122 3.53% Desktop 3,377 223 6.60% IMPORTANT CAMPAIGN @CONTENTVERVE#CH2018
  33. 33. Device Users Conversions Conversion Rate All 139,254 4,099 2.94% Mobile 132,420 3,745 2.83% Tablet 3,457 122 3.53% Desktop 3,377 223 6.60% IMPORTANT CAMPAIGN @CONTENTVERVE#CH2018
  34. 34. Device Users Conversions Conversion Rate All 139,254 4,099 2.94% Mobile 132,420 3,745 2.83% Tablet 3,457 122 3.53% Desktop 3,377 223 6.60% IMPORTANT CAMPAIGN Only 2.43% of traffic… @CONTENTVERVE#CH2018
  35. 35. Step 1: Read the research. Step 2: Get new insight. @CONTENTVERVE#CH2018
  36. 36. THE CONFIRMATION BIAS CYCLE X X @CONTENTVERVE#CH2018
  37. 37. 1. Read the research. http://davidwees.com/content/confirmation-bias-cycle/ 2. Keep my worldview.Ignore any flaws in the research. No Do I agree with the findings of the research? Yes Find a reason the research is flawed. Ignore the research. @CONTENTVERVE
  38. 38. 1. Read the research. http://davidwees.com/content/confirmation-bias-cycle/ 2. Keep my worldview.Ignore any flaws in the research. No Do I agree with the findings of the research? Yes Find a reason the research is flawed. Ignore the research. @CONTENTVERVE
  39. 39. 1. Read the research. http://davidwees.com/content/confirmation-bias-cycle/ 2. Keep my worldview.Ignore any flaws in the research. No Do I agree with the findings of the research? Yes Find a reason the research is flawed. Ignore the research. @CONTENTVERVE
  40. 40. 1. Read the research. http://davidwees.com/content/confirmation-bias-cycle/ 2. Keep my worldview.Ignore any flaws in the research. No Do I agree with the findings of the research? Yes Find a reason the research is flawed. Ignore the research. @CONTENTVERVE
  41. 41. 1. Read the research. http://davidwees.com/content/confirmation-bias-cycle/ 2. Keep my worldview.Ignore any flaws in the research. No Do I agree with the findings of the research? Yes Find a reason the research is flawed. Ignore the research. @CONTENTVERVE
  42. 42. 1. Read the research. http://davidwees.com/content/confirmation-bias-cycle/ 2. Keep my worldview.Ignore any flaws in the research. No Do I agree with the findings of the research? Yes Find a reason the research is flawed. Ignore the research. @CONTENTVERVE
  43. 43. http://davidwees.com/content/confirmation-bias-cycle/ 2. Keep my worldview. 1. Read the research. Ignore any flaws in the research. No Do I agree with the findings of the research? Yes Find a reason the research is flawed. Ignore the research. @CONTENTVERVE
  44. 44. 1. Read the research. http://davidwees.com/content/confirmation-bias-cycle/ 2. Keep my worldview.Ignore any flaws in the research. No Do I agree with the findings of the research? Yes Find a reason the research is flawed. Ignore the research. @CONTENTVERVE
  45. 45. 1. Read the research. http://davidwees.com/content/confirmation-bias-cycle/ 2. Keep my worldview.Ignore any flaws in the research. No Do I agree with the findings of the research? Yes Find a reason the research is flawed. Ignore the research. @CONTENTVERVE
  46. 46. 1. Read the research. http://davidwees.com/content/confirmation-bias-cycle/ 2. Keep my worldview.Ignore any flaws in the research. No Do I agree with the findings of the research? Yes Find a reason the research is flawed. Ignore the research. @CONTENTVERVE
  47. 47. 1. Read the research. http://davidwees.com/content/confirmation-bias-cycle/ 2. Keep my worldview.Ignore any flaws in the research. No Do I agree with the findings of the research? Yes Find a reason the research is flawed. Ignore the research. @CONTENTVERVE
  48. 48. 1. Read the research. http://davidwees.com/content/confirmation-bias-cycle/ 2. Keep my worldview.Ignore any flaws in the research. No Do I agree with the findings of the research? Yes Find a reason the research is flawed. Ignore the research. @CONTENTVERVE
  49. 49. 1. Read the research. http://davidwees.com/content/confirmation-bias-cycle/ 2. Keep my worldview.Ignore any flaws in the research. No Do I agree with the findings of the research? Yes Find a reason the research is flawed. Ignore the research. @CONTENTVERVE
  50. 50. http://davidwees.com/content/confirmation-bias-cycle/ 2. Keep my worldview. 1. Read the research. Ignore any flaws in the research. No Do I agree with the findings of the research? Yes Find a reason the research is flawed. Ignore the research. @CONTENTVERVE
  51. 51. @CONTENTVERVE#CH2018
  52. 52. @CONTENTVERVE#CH2018
  53. 53. @CONTENTVERVE#CH2018 https://abtestguide.com/
  54. 54. can you torture qualitative data? @CONTENTVERVE#CH2018
  55. 55. wouldn’t you agree that this is a useful feature? @CONTENTVERVE#CH2018
  56. 56. can you tell us why you love our product? @CONTENTVERVE#CH2018
  57. 57. using marketer’s logic @CONTENTVERVE#CH2018
  58. 58. myside bias @CONTENTVERVE#CH2018
  59. 59. @CONTENTVERVE
  60. 60. @CONTENTVERVE
  61. 61. @CONTENTVERVE
  62. 62. @CONTENTVERVE
  63. 63. @CONTENTVERVE
  64. 64. @CONTENTVERVE
  65. 65. @CONTENTVERVE
  66. 66. @CONTENTVERVE
  67. 67. @CONTENTVERVE
  68. 68. @CONTENTVERVE
  69. 69. @CONTENTVERVE
  70. 70. @CONTENTVERVE
  71. 71. What do you think this page was about? Did the landing page seem trustworthy?
  72. 72. What do you think this page was about? Did the landing page seem trustworthy? 88% 80%
  73. 73. which university landing page is most credible? @CONTENTVERVE#CH2018
  74. 74. which university landing page is most credible? 36% 64% @CONTENTVERVE#CH2018
  75. 75. I’M RIGHT & YOU’RE WRONG @CONTENTVERVE#CH2018
  76. 76. I’M SMART & YOU’RE STUPID @CONTENTVERVE#CH2018
  77. 77. how to overcome confirmation bias @CONTENTVERVE#CH2018
  78. 78. step 1 @CONTENTVERVE#CH2018
  79. 79. you could be wrong accept the fact that @CONTENTVERVE#CH2018
  80. 80. The road to wisdom? — Well, it's plain and simple to express: @CONTENTVERVE#CH2018
  81. 81. Err and err and err again but less and less and less.  Piet Hein @CONTENTVERVE#CH2018
  82. 82. step 2 @CONTENTVERVE#CH2018
  83. 83. Seek out a different perspective @CONTENTVERVE#CH2018
  84. 84. customer success @CONTENTVERVE#CH2018
  85. 85. @CONTENTVERVE#CH2018
  86. 86. @CONTENTVERVE#CH2018
  87. 87. @CONTENTVERVE#CH2018
  88. 88. @CONTENTVERVE#CH2018
  89. 89. nope… @CONTENTVERVE#CH2018
  90. 90. will i be billed during the trial? Can i cancel during my trial? can i change plans? @CONTENTVERVE#CH2018
  91. 91. will i be billed during the trial? Can i cancel during my trial? can i change plans? nope! you will only be billed after your 30-day trial if you choose not to cancel. we’ll send an e-mail reminder near the end of the trial. certainly! you can cancel at any time, just go to your account dashboard and click “manage account”. of course! you can change plans or switch between monthly/annual billing via your account dashboard. @CONTENTVERVE#CH2018
  92. 92. #CH2018
  93. 93. @CONTENTVERVE#CH2018
  94. 94. A: Bullets based on marketer’s logic B: Bullets based on customer insight 11% increase in sign ups ✓ 2 full business cycles ✓ 867 account signups ✓ 95% significance level @CONTENTVERVE#CH2018
  95. 95. challenge your beliefs @CONTENTVERVE#CH2018
  96. 96. step 3 @CONTENTVERVE#CH2018
  97. 97. break the confirmation Bias cycle @CONTENTVERVE#CH2018
  98. 98. 1. Read the research. http://davidwees.com/content/confirmation-bias-cycle/ 2. Keep my worldview.Ignore any flaws in the research. No Do I agree with the findings of the research? Yes Find a reason the research is flawed. Ignore the research. @CONTENTVERVE
  99. 99. the power of habit - charles duhigg @CONTENTVERVE#CH2018
  100. 100. ROUTINE REWARDCUE the habit loop @CONTENTVERVE#CH2018
  101. 101. the habit loop @CONTENTVERVE#CH2018
  102. 102. CUE the habit loop @CONTENTVERVE#CH2018
  103. 103. ROUTINE CUE the habit loop @CONTENTVERVE#CH2018
  104. 104. ROUTINE REWARDCUE the habit loop @CONTENTVERVE#CH2018
  105. 105. ROUTINE REWARDCUE the habit loop @CONTENTVERVE#CH2018
  106. 106. ROUTINE REWARDCUE Reenforcement of the habit The action triggered by the cue The trigger that sets off the habit the habit loop @CONTENTVERVE#CH2018
  107. 107. FEEL AWAKEFEEL TIRED RED BULL the habit loop @CONTENTVERVE#CH2018
  108. 108. FEEL AWAKEFEEL TIRED RED BULL the habit loop @CONTENTVERVE#CH2018
  109. 109. FEEL AWAKEFEEL TIRED RED BULL the habit loop @CONTENTVERVE#CH2018
  110. 110. FEEL AWAKEFEEL TIRED RED BULL the habit loop @CONTENTVERVE#CH2018
  111. 111. FEEL AWAKEFEEL TIRED RED BULL the habit loop 1 2 3 @CONTENTVERVE#CH2018
  112. 112. FEEL AWAKEFEEL TIRED GREEN TEA the habit loop 1 2 3 @CONTENTVERVE#CH2018
  113. 113. REJECT INFO MAINTAIN WORLDVIEW INFO I DON’T AGREE WITH the habit loop @CONTENTVERVE#CH2018
  114. 114. REJECT INFO MAINTAIN WORLDVIEW INFO I DON’T AGREE WITH the habit loop @CONTENTVERVE#CH2018
  115. 115. REJECT INFO MAINTAIN WORLDVIEW INFO I DON’T AGREE WITH the habit loop @CONTENTVERVE#CH2018
  116. 116. ACCEPT INFO AT FACE VALUE MAINTAIN WORLDVIEW INFO I AGREE WITH the habit loop @CONTENTVERVE#CH2018
  117. 117. ACCEPT INFO AT FACE VALUE MAINTAIN WORLDVIEW INFO I AGREE WITH the habit loop @CONTENTVERVE#CH2018
  118. 118. ACCEPT INFO AT FACE VALUE MAINTAIN WORLDVIEW INFO I AGREE WITH the habit loop @CONTENTVERVE#CH2018
  119. 119. I COULD BE WRONG/ DO RESEARCH MAINTAIN WORLDVIEW INFO I AGREE WITH the habit loop NEW INSIGHT @CONTENTVERVE#CH2018
  120. 120. I COULD BE WRONG/ DO RESEARCH MAINTAIN WORLDVIEW INFO I AGREE WITH the habit loop NEW INSIGHT @CONTENTVERVE#CH2018
  121. 121. I COULD BE WRONG/ DO RESEARCH MAINTAIN WORLDVIEW INFO I AGREE WITH the habit loop NEW INSIGHT @CONTENTVERVE#CH2018
  122. 122. accept the fact that you could be wrong er, and er and er again - but less and less and less seek out a different perspective & challenge your beliefs break the confirmation bias cycle @CONTENTVERVE#CH2018
  123. 123. i suffer from confirmation bias - no one can convince me otherwise… @CONTENTVERVE#CH2018
  124. 124. thank you!!! Feel free to reach out aagaardviking@gmail.com @CONTENTVERVE#CH2018

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