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Future of Healthcare

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At Modern Health Talk, we see the future of mHealth as less about Mobile health and more about MODERN healthcare that includes all sorts of solutions for addressing demographic shift of retiring baby boomers and the resulting doctor shortage.

These solutions include mobile technologies (smartphones & tablets) and big broadband support of high-def video calls with medical imaging, as well as new delivery options such as retail clinics and insurance-funded home care (and home modifications), remote sensor monitoring, healthcare robots, Watson-like cloud services, new laws & regulations, support of family caregivers, and more.

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Future of Healthcare

  1. 1. By Wayne Caswell The FUTURE of Health Care © Modern Health Talk
  2. 2. WHICH Future? © Modern Health Talk
  3. 3. 1. My Background, Perspective & Bias 2. Why Our Healthcare is So Expensive 3. Exponential Pace of Tech Innovation 4. Tech moves Down-Market with Telehealth 5. Smartphone as Health Gateway 6. Sensors, Sensors Everywhere 7. An Ounce of Prevention 8. Personalized Wellness & Treatment 9. AI in the Cloud and Phone 10. Healthcare Robots 11. Blending Man & Machine 12. Singularity and the Brain-Computer Interface TOPICS © Modern Health Talk
  4. 4. >150 articles
  5. 5. Eas y Acces s ib le Wireles s I n tern et UNIVERSAL, not “Senior” Design An iPad for All Ages https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=htLswR9BUD4 (15:08 min)
  6. 6. Accessible entry © Modern Health Talk UNIVERSAL, not “Senior” Design Zero-Step Entry for: • Rolling Suitcases, • Baby Strollers, • Dollies, • AND Wheelchairs
  7. 7. Unpaid Family Caregivers toll is already $480 Billion/yr. As 11,000 Boomers turn 65/day, 90,000 Doctor Shortfall. Governments, Cities & Homes aren’t ready. 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 1909 1919 1929 1939 1949 1959 1969 1979 1989 Live Births per Year (Millions) Baby Bust (41 Million) Baby Boom (76 Million) Echo Boom (64 Million) World Population more than doubled in 65 years. Average Lifespan up 30 years over last century. Living for 1,000 years is possible, futurists say. Costs increase with age © Modern Health Talk
  8. 8. 1. My Background, Perspective & Bias 2. Why Our Healthcare is SO Expensive 3. Exponential Pace of Tech Innovation 4. Tech moves Down-Market with Telehealth 5. Smartphone as Health Gateway 6. Sensors, Sensors Everywhere 7. An Ounce of Prevention 8. Personalized Wellness & Treatment 9. AI in the Cloud and Phone 10. Healthcare Robots 11. Blending Man & Machine 12. Singularity and the Brain-Computer Interface TOPICS © Modern Health Talk
  9. 9. http://www.mhealthtalk.com/expensive/ (5:41 min) Why Our Healthcare is SO Expensive © Modern Health Talk
  10. 10. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=89nnsWZhkI4 (4:00 min)
  11. 11. http://www.mhealthtalk.com/expensive/ CONTRIBUTING FACTORS: 1. Aging Populations (11,000 Boomers retiring every day) 2. There’s No Easy Fix 3. Market Forces Don’t Work in Health Care 4. Health is seen as Political Weapon, not a Policy Objective 5. A Medical Cartel Influences Public Policy 6. Direct to Consumer Ads Influences Attitudes & Behavior 7. Profit Incentives are Misaligned with Goals 8. Fee-for-Service Business Models Need Disruption 9. Medical Schools teach Diagnosis & Treatment, not Prevention 10. Inequality affects Health, Opportunity & Influence 11. Public Health Programs are Effective but Not Priority 12. Single-Payer, even if enacted, is Not Enough 13. Tech Solutions Will Help Define the Future of Healthcare WHY Our Healthcare is So Expensive © Modern Health Talk
  12. 12. 1. My Background, Perspective & Bias 2. Why Our Healthcare is So Expensive 3. Exponential Pace of Tech Innovation 4. Tech moves Down-Market with Telehealth 5. Smartphone as Health Gateway 6. Sensors, Sensors Everywhere 7. An Ounce of Prevention 8. Personalized Wellness & Treatment 9. AI in the Cloud and Phone 10. Healthcare Robots 11. Blending Man & Machine 12. Singularity and the Brain-Computer Interface TOPICS © Modern Health Talk
  13. 13. Linear vs. Exponential Growth 32768 16384 8192 4096 2048 1024 512 256 128 64 32 16 8 4 2 1 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 The Impact of Moore’s Law (chip density doubling every 2 years) The exponentially accelerating pace of tech innovation is enabling smaller, cheaper, more accurate, and easier to use medical devices and will cause medical functions done today by doctors in clinics and hospitals to move down-market to consumers at hone. © Modern Health Talk
  14. 14. Take 30 LINEAR steps… 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 Linear vs. Exponential Growth … 30 yards © Modern Health Talk
  15. 15. Linear vs. Exponential Growth Take 30 EXPONENTIAL steps… 01 02 04 08 16 32 64 128 256 © Modern Health Talk
  16. 16. IBM Mainframe computer, circa 1972 (System/370 Model 158-3) Apple iPhone X, Christmas 2017 COST: $3.5 million (~$21M in 2017 dollars) COST: ~$1,000 PERFORMANCE: 1 MIPS (million instructions per second) PERFORMANCE: ~100,000 MIPS (64-bit 2.4 GHz 6-core processor) MEMORY: 4 MB max STORAGE: typical 1.6 GB (8*200 MB/drive) STORAGE: 64-256 GB© Modern Health Talk
  17. 17. IBM Mainframe computer, circa 1972 (System/370 Model 158-3) My Toothbrush (Philips Sonicare) COST: $3.5 million (~$21M in 2017 dollars) COST: $69.99 PERFORMANCE: 1 MIPS (million instructions per second) PERFORMANCE: 10 MIPS (8-bit Zilog Z8 microprocessor) MEMORY: 4 MB max STORAGE: typical 1.6 GB (8*200 MB/drive) © Modern Health Talk
  18. 18. 1. My Background, Perspective & Bias 2. Why Our Healthcare is So Expensive 3. Exponential Pace of Tech Innovation 4. Tech moves Down-Market with Telehealth 5. Smartphone as Health Gateway 6. Sensors, Sensors Everywhere 7. An Ounce of Prevention 8. Personalized Wellness & Treatment 9. AI in the Cloud and Phone 10. Healthcare Robots 11. Blending Man & Machine 12. Singularity and the Brain-Computer Interface TOPICS © Modern Health Talk
  19. 19. TeleHEALTH & TeleMEDICINE Moving Down-Market to Kiosk, at Office, at Home, on the Go © Modern Health Talk
  20. 20. TeleHEALTH & TeleMEDICINE © Modern Health Talk
  21. 21. Broadband Access & Privacy issues Patient, Family, Physician(s) TeleHEALTH & TeleMEDICINE Video images from multiple cameras simultaneously © Modern Health Talk
  22. 22. 1. My Background, Perspective & Bias 2. Why Our Healthcare is So Expensive 3. Exponential Pace of Tech Innovation 4. Tech moves Down-Market with Telehealth 5. Smartphone as Health Gateway 6. Sensors, Sensors Everywhere 7. An Ounce of Prevention 8. Personalized Wellness & Treatment 9. AI in the Cloud and Phone 10. Healthcare Robots 11. Blending Man & Machine 12. Singularity and the Brain-Computer Interface TOPICS © Modern Health Talk
  23. 23. A Medical Tricorder? 5 Vital Signs Body Temperature Blood Pressure Heart Rate/Variability Respiratory Rate Blood Oxygen 10 Health Conditions Diabetes Pneumonia Pulmonary Disease Atrial Fibrillation Chronic Obstructive Urinary Tract Infection Leukocytosis Sleep Apnea Anemia © Modern Health Talk
  24. 24. Phone as Tricorder © Modern Health Talk
  25. 25. Phone as Health Gateway © Modern Health Talk And Home Gateway Too Apple HealthKit in iOS8 An iTunes for Health data? “Hay Siri”
  26. 26. Other Drivers? Most & Fastest Connections? Most Capital & Profit? Most Need? 2014: More Mobile Devices than World Population Phone as Health Gateway © Modern Health Talk
  27. 27. 1. My Background, Perspective & Bias 2. Why Our Healthcare is So Expensive 3. Exponential Pace of Tech Innovation 4. Tech moves Down-Market with Telehealth 5. Smartphone as Health Gateway 6. Sensors, Sensors Everywhere 7. An Ounce of Prevention 8. Personalized Wellness & Treatment 9. AI in the Cloud and Phone 10. Healthcare Robots 11. Blending Man & Machine 12. Singularity and the Brain-Computer Interface TOPICS © Modern Health Talk
  28. 28. Remotely monitor SENSORS that already measure all sorts of things: Tech Disappearing into Things • Light, • Motion, • Contact, • Moisture, • Temperature, • Acceleration, • Chemicals (CO2, off-gassing), • Pressure (pulse, blood pressure) © Modern Health Talk
  29. 29. Ingestible Disposable capsule with video camera can examine parts of the small intestine that standard scopes can’t reach. Video images are received by a recorder work on a belt and then downloaded to a computer for analysis. © Modern Health Talk Capsule Endoscopy
  30. 30. Digestible © Modern Health Talk
  31. 31. © Modern Health Talk Continuous Monitoring Guardian Glucose Monitor Minimally Invasive Avoid Lows & Highs Understand Context
  32. 32. © Modern Health Talk
  33. 33. around the Belly Sense4Baby – remote fetal monitoring © Modern Health Talk
  34. 34. on the Ankle Owlet Baby Monitor worn on ankle to monitor vitals © Modern Health Talk
  35. 35. on the Skin Biostamp – applied like temporary tattoo © Modern Health Talk
  36. 36. © Modern Health Talk on the Skin Biostamp or electronic tattoos University of Illinois – MC10 Flexible patch can pick up heartbeats when stuck on the chest, skeletal muscle activity when on the leg, and brainwaves when on the forehead.
  37. 37. in your Clothing © Modern Health Talk
  38. 38. in your Cars © Modern Health Talk
  39. 39. Evolution of MankindIn your Glasses Looking Down at Electronics Looking UpLooking Down © Modern Health Talk
  40. 40. Evolution of MankindIn your Glasses Apple Glass could replace iPhone, add AR © Modern Health Talk
  41. 41. Google is developing contacts with continuous monitoring. on your Eyes Glucose sensing Contacts © Modern Health Talk
  42. 42. • Sense other Biomarkers • Augmented Reality • Night Vision • Telephoto Zoom • See other frequencies (UV, IR & Radio) on your Eyes © Modern Health Talk
  43. 43. in the Mail At-Home Blood Test © Modern Health Talk
  44. 44. under the Skin “Lab on a Chip” analyzes blood, transmits wirelessly. Self-powered Implantables © Modern Health Talk
  45. 45. 1. My Background, Perspective & Bias 2. Why Our Healthcare is So Expensive 3. Exponential Pace of Tech Innovation 4. Tech moves Down-Market with Telehealth 5. Smartphone as Health Gateway 6. Sensors, Sensors Everywhere 7. An Ounce of Prevention 8. Personalized Wellness & Treatment 9. AI in the Cloud and Phone 10. Healthcare Robots 11. Blending Man & Machine 12. Singularity and the Brain-Computer Interface TOPICS © Modern Health Talk
  46. 46. Manage Meds Below Threshold P A I N E V E RY 8 HO URS Measure Drug Absorption in Blood Avoid Delivering Too Much © Modern Health Talk
  47. 47. Manage Meds Below Threshold Measure Drug Absorption in Blood LESS PAIN with lower dose & higher frequency E V E RY 4 HO URS Adjust Dosage For Most Benefit & Least Harmful Effect Automatically © Modern Health Talk
  48. 48. “An Ounce of Prevention” SYMPTOMS APPEAR HEALTHY Diagnosis-Prognosis Drug/Device Intervention Post Treatment Testing Alternative to Disease-Treatment © Modern Health Talk
  49. 49. AVOID SYMPTOMS HEALTHYPredisposition Testing Screening “An Ounce of Prevention” Early Screening to Stay Below the Symptom Line © Modern Health Talk
  50. 50. Medical School 2.0 PILLARS of Health • Nutrition • Exercise • Sleep © Modern Health Talk Medical School 1.0 Doctors taught only to Diagnose & Cure. “You have a rare condition called ‘Good Health.” Frankly, I’m not sure how to treat it.” “An Ounce of Prevention”
  51. 51. 1. My Background, Perspective & Bias 2. Why Our Healthcare is So Expensive 3. Exponential Pace of Tech Innovation 4. Tech moves Down-Market with Telehealth 5. Smartphone as Health Gateway 6. Sensors, Sensors Everywhere 7. An Ounce of Prevention 8. Personalized Wellness & Treatment 9. AI in the Cloud and Phone 10. Healthcare Robots 11. Blending Man & Machine 12. Singularity and the Brain-Computer Interface TOPICS © Modern Health Talk
  52. 52. Personalized Wellness & The Right Procedure for the Right Patient The Right Drug & Dose at the Right Time Treatment © Modern Health Talk
  53. 53. May help us detect cancer DNA and deadly infections in real-time As pieces of genome pass through the nanopores, they produce minute fluctuations in an electrical current. Scientists used this pocket-sized DNA- scanner to sequence the most complete human genome ever assembled with a single device. (99.88% accuracy) MinION – $1,000 DNA Sequencer by Oxford Nanopore Technologies Personal DNA © Modern Health Talk
  54. 54. Heal Organs with a Touch Tissue Nanotransfection can generate any cell type of interest for treatment within the patient’s own body. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tMQ51Kj2tS0 (2:16 min)
  55. 55. 1. My Background, Perspective & Bias 2. Why Our Healthcare is So Expensive 3. Exponential Pace of Tech Innovation 4. Tech moves Down-Market with Telehealth 5. Smartphone as Health Gateway 6. Sensors, Sensors Everywhere 7. An Ounce of Prevention 8. Personalized Wellness & Treatment 9. AI in the Cloud and Phone 10. Healthcare Robots 11. Blending Man & Machine 12. Singularity and the Brain-Computer Interface TOPICS © Modern Health Talk
  56. 56. WATSON Watson famously beat the top players in the world. It can parse & analyze 300 M books in 3 seconds. Artificial Intelligence © Modern Health Talk
  57. 57. AI in the Cloud © Modern Health Talk WATSON Now being applied to Health Care & Medical Research. The newest systems are 250x faster and 8x smaller. Medical Knowledge Doubles every 5 Years.
  58. 58. AI on Smartphones too © Modern Health Talk IBM & Apple want to bring Watson to the iPhone, putting A Doctor in your Pocket. Siri WATSON
  59. 59. 1. My Background, Perspective & Bias 2. Why Our Healthcare is So Expensive 3. Exponential Pace of Tech Innovation 4. Tech moves Down-Market with Telehealth 5. Smartphone as Health Gateway 6. Sensors, Sensors Everywhere 7. An Ounce of Prevention 8. Personalized Wellness & Treatment 9. AI in the Cloud and Phone 10. Healthcare Robots 11. Blending Man & Machine 12. Singularity and the Brain-Computer Interface TOPICS © Modern Health Talk
  60. 60. © Modern Health Talk Healthcare Robots
  61. 61. Xiaoyi is a Chinese robot doctor that just made history as the first machine to pass a medical licensing exam. Would you go to a Robot MD? © Modern Health Talkhttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L96CUJapsbo (1:49 min )
  62. 62. Our Cars will be Robots too. Would you ride in a Robot Car? © Modern Health Talk
  63. 63. 1. My Background, Perspective & Bias 2. Why Our Healthcare is So Expensive 3. Exponential Pace of Tech Innovation 4. Tech moves Down-Market with Telehealth 5. Smartphone as Health Gateway 6. Sensors, Sensors Everywhere 7. An Ounce of Prevention 8. Personalized Wellness & Treatment 9. AI in the Cloud and Phone 10. Healthcare Robots 11. Blending Man & Machine 12. Singularity and the Brain-Computer Interface TOPICS © Modern Health Talk
  64. 64. Would you Enhance Yourself? © Modern Health Talk
  65. 65. ” © Modern Health Talk
  66. 66. Blending Man & Machine Mechanical Prosthetics © Modern Health Talk
  67. 67. Electronic Prosthetics Blending Man & Machine © Modern Health Talk
  68. 68. Blending Man & Machine 3D-printed Prosthetics © Modern Health Talk
  69. 69. Blending Man & Machine 3D-printed prosthetics are Great for Growing Kids © Modern Health Talk
  70. 70. Evan, Troop 774, Encinitas, CA printed and assembled dozens of custom prosthetics Blending Man & Machine © Modern Health Talk
  71. 71. Easton LaChappelle gives TED Talk At age 14, Easton used the Internet to learn about electronics, sensor technologies, programming & modeling software, 3D printing & industrial design, and wireless networking. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CfmNXPMjChs (10:40 min)
  72. 72. 3D Printed Body Parts LIVER EARS BONES Also: • bladder, • trachea, • cartilage, • urine tubes, • spinal cords Still Researching 3D printer can now print cells that can multiply into tissues used in medical research … and to create organs. © Modern Health Talk
  73. 73. © Modern Health Talk Transhumanism Average Lifespan nearly Doubled in 200 years. What will the next 200 bring? Who Influences that Future? You or Them? How Long do you WANT to Live? Can you afford it? Hacking Human Evolution Genetic Engineering StemCell Research INFO+NANO+BIO+NEURO
  74. 74. 1. My Background, Perspective & Bias 2. Why Our Healthcare is So Expensive 3. Exponential Pace of Tech Innovation 4. Tech moves Down-Market with Telehealth 5. Smartphone as Health Gateway 6. Sensors, Sensors Everywhere 7. An Ounce of Prevention 8. Personalized Wellness & Treatment 9. AI in the Cloud and Phone 10. Healthcare Robots 11. Blending Man & Machine 12. Singularity and the Brain-Computer Interface TOPICS © Modern Health Talk
  75. 75. Brain-Computer Interface Command a Robot or Fly a Helicopter with your thoughts. © Modern Health Talk
  76. 76. © Modern Health Talk Bulky sensors no loner needed. Brain-Computer Interface Command a Robot or Fly a Helicopter with your thoughts.
  77. 77. Brain-Computer Interface Neural Implants will Need Convergent Technologies Metin Akay, MD © Modern Health Talk INFO NANO BIO NEURO
  78. 78. By 2013, a Supercomputer will exceed the computational & analytical power of the Human Brain. (Ray Kurzweil) By 2023, a $1,000 computer will; and by 2037, a $0.01 computer will. By 2049, a $1,000 computer will exceed the computational & analytical power of the Human Race. And by 2059 a $0.01 computer will. What IMPLICATIONS: Health, Career, Social, Political? © Modern Health Talk Singularity is Near
  79. 79. “… right now is one of those moments that YOU are influencing the future.” Steve Jobs © Modern Health Talk
  80. 80. WayneCaswell@mHealthTalk.com 512-507-6011 The FUTURE of Health Care © Modern Health Talk

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