“ As Time Goes By… An Oil History Overview ” Author: Rick Watters BP Finance Americas Trust Investments
The Hydrocarbon <ul><li>A chemical compound containing carbon and hydrogen atoms only </li></ul><ul><li>CH3 </li></ul><ul><li>CH4 is natural gas (simple hydrocarbon methane) which is odorless & lighter than air </li></ul>
What is Oil? - Together with natural gas, it makes up petroleum, which is Latin for "rock oil". -Petroleum is basically a mix of naturally occurring organic compounds from within the earth that contain primarily hydrogen, carbon and oxygen. -When petroleum comes straight out of the ground as a liquid it is called crude oil if dark and viscous, and condensate if clear and volatile…when solid it is asphalt, and when semi-solid it is tar. -There is also natural gas, which can be associated with oil or found alone.
Where did Oil come from? <ul><li>Two theories on the origin of petroleum developed during the Renaissance. The more popular was proposed by Agricola , a German physician who agreed with Aristotle and wrote in 1546, in a textbook on mining and minerals, that bitumen formed from exhalations of sulfur deep within the earth. </li></ul><ul><li>By contrast, Libavius , another German physician, theorized in 1599, in a chemistry textbook, that bitumen might form from the resins of ancient trees. </li></ul><ul><li>Lesqueroux , the father of paleobotany, decided in 1866 that petroleum in Pennsylvania formed from marine algae in Devonian shales much the same way that coal forms from land plants. </li></ul><ul><li>Later, Anderson and Arnold convincingly argued in a 1907 bulletin of the U.S. Geological Survey that the only possible source for oils from Santa Maria field in California was microscopic fossil plants, called diatoms, found in organic-rich shales of the Miocene Monterey Formation. Another bulletin by Clarke in 1916 demonstrated that the Santa Maria oils were chemically similar to, and therefore undoubtedly derived from, the organic remains of Monterey diatoms. </li></ul><ul><li>Most geologists today agree that crude oil forms over millions of years from the remains of tiny aquatic plants and animals that are exposed to the combined effects of time and temperature. In other words, oil forms from organic matter that is either "cooked" deep within the earth for long periods of time at low temperatures, or "cooked" for short periods of time at high temperatures. </li></ul>
The Heretic & The Origin of Oil <ul><li>Vienna-born astrophysicist and cosmologist Dr. Thomas Gold published a book in 1999 entitled “The Deep Hot Biosphere”. </li></ul><ul><li>Gold’s latest theory challenges the belief that oil and gas come from the fossilized remains of dinosaurs and plants. Gold presents his theory in the book that petroleum has been present since the formation of the earth, is bubbling up continuously from great depth, and supports a biosphere of archaebacteria-like organisms potentially larger in collective mass than all surface life. </li></ul><ul><li>Believes gas and oil formed in planets after the Big Bang that created the universe. </li></ul><ul><li>He says an enormous quantity of oil and gas exists 200 miles down in the earth. Says Gold, “The drilling we do is only 4 or 5 miles, but it seeps up.” </li></ul><ul><li>Gold believes pressure is constantly pushing this vast reservoir of oil and gas up through Earth’s crust to where we tap into it. Even when the wells run dry, Gold says wait a few years and they’ll fill back up again…and again. In other words there’s enough oil and gas to last. “It’s not infinite,” says Gold, “but we’re talking thousands of years.” </li></ul>
(% by volume) 44% gasoline 21% fuel oil 9% jet fuel 5% residual fuel oil 5% LPG 5% still gas 4% coke 3% asphalt 2% feedstocks 1% lubricants 1% kerosene & other -Physical barrel or drum is 55 gallons in size. -One barrel contains 42 gallons of crude oil. -The total volume of products made is 44.2 GALLONS (2.2 gallons greater than the original 42 gallons of crude oil.) This represents "processing gain," where other chemicals are added to the refining process to create the final products. Source: American Petroleum Institute (www.api.org). Figures are based on 1995 average yields for U.S. refineries. What’s in a Barrel of Oil?
To Begin, here are a few dates… Whoops…the author didn’t mean HIS dates!
3200 B.C. to 1859 3200 (BC)-Egyptians use pitch in embalming and to seal sarcophagi. 2000 (BC)-Egyptians use coring device to evaluate quarry rock. 1000 (BC)-Mesopotamians used bitumen for construction and vessels. 800 (BC)-Chinese first to use natural gas. 600 (BC)-Chinese use bamboo/stone drilling system for brine search. 330-------Oil/gas fuel eternal fires of Persian Zoroastrian temples. 200-------Chinese first to drill for oil,using brine drilling methods. 1300-------American Indians use oil for medicinal purposes/Marco Polo reports wells dug Caspian Sea Shores to extract oil. 1500-------Leonardo da Vinci sketches machine for boring wells. 1760-------US settlers begin drilling wells for salt water. 1806-------Spring pole cable drilling developed in US. 1807-------Cored trees used for casing in recovery of salt brine. 1814-------First well that produced oil - 475 ft 1822-------Rudimentary art of drilling wells established/ Hand-dug pits provide oil in Baku. 1844-------Fluid circulating rotary well drilling patented (England - Robert Beart) 1845-------Circulated fluid used to remove drill cuttings for first time. 1855-------First seismograph developed for Earth Quake sensing.First steam- powered drilling rig developed. 1859-------Drake well completed for sole purpose of producing oil.
1860 to 1869 1860- Kerosene replacing whale oil and candles for illumination / US leading producer of petroleum / Fluid circulation rotary diamond coring drill developed (France) / Use of diamonds in core drill. 1861- First recovered well blowout (Rouseville, Pennsylvania). 1863- Screwed casing joints developed. 1866- First wooden pipelines developed. 1867- First oil recession (price drops to $2.40/bbl). 1869- Suez Canal completed / Self-elevating drilling platform patended (Rowand, Lewis).
1870 to 1879 1870-John D. Rockefeller enters the oil refining business; forms Standard Oil (Cleveland, OH) to produce kerosene, for lighting purposes / Bolted derrick patented / First cable tool rig developed. 1871- First oil well in Baku. 1872- First Persian (Iran) concessions let for oil exploration. 1873- The Nobel family (minus Alfred, the dynamite inventor, who established the famous Nobel Prizes) drills for oil in the Baku area in Russia (today's Azerbaijan) / Acid bottle inclinometer and compass used for surveying wells 1876- Nobel Co. shipping oil from Baku. 1877- Incandescent bulb invented. 1878- First bulk oil tanker begins operation (Caspian Sea - Nobel).
1880 to 1889 1880- Rigs sold with full suite of surface, downhole tools / Drag-type bit developed - Standardization of casing begins. 1882-Thomas Edison invents the electric light bulb, endangering future petroleum markets / Straddle rubber wall packer developed. 1883- First city illuminated with natural gas (Pittsburgh). 1885- The Rothschilds develop petroleum in Russia / Royal Dutch develops petroleum in Sumatra with the First successfull well drilled in (Indonesia). 1892-Marcus Samuel forms Shell, to transport petroleum through Suez Canal. 1896-Invention of the automobile (Daimler and Benz, Germany) resurrects the market for petroleum.
1900 to 1909 1900- Second major recession in petroleum industry. - Russia begins drilling on stone islands off Baku. 1901- Spindletop discovered (Beaumont, Texas at 1,100ft) / Petroleum discovered in Persia (Iran) / Petroleum boom in Texas (Sun, Texaco, Gulf). 1902- Shoes developed for casing installation. 1903- First airplane flight (gasoline engines-Wright Brothers) / Petroleum boom in California (Unocal). 1904- Steel cables replaces rope for cable tool drilling. 1905- Internal combustion engine boosting gasoline consumption / Casing cemented in for the first time / Petroleum discovered in Oklahoma. 1907-Merger of Shell and Royal Dutch 1908- Oil discovered in Persia (D'Arcy/Burmah/BP). 1909- Rolling cutter bit developed (Howard Hughes) / Thermal cracking double gasoline yield from bbl of oil.
1910 to 1919 1910- Gasoline sales exceed kerosene sales / Oil discovered in Mexico near Tampico / Petroleum boom in Mexico / Two- speed draw works developed / Drill pipe tool joints introduced / Tube mills begin turning out "drill pipe“ /. 1911- Standard Oil conglomerate ordered to dissolve / Dissolution of Rockefeller's Standard Oil cartel to form smaller oil companies, which eventually became Exxon, Mobil, Amoco, Sohio, Chevron, Socony, Esso) / Platform drilling began on Louisiana's Caddo Lake / Lead-seal type blowout preventer developed / First Gas lift devices 1912- 900,000 gasoline powered cars in operation in the US / Torsion balance gravity measurement developed / Forged drill collars used to attach drill bit. 1913- First dual completed well. 1914- British, German navies switch new ship from coal to oil burning / World War I begins / Kelly and drive bushing introduced. 1917- Serious shortage of oil develops. 1919- First diamond drill used.
1920 to 1929 1920- Mexico becomes second largest producer in the world / Heavy portable drilling machine introduced (Emsco, Joy) / Weight materials added to drilling fluid. 1922- Oil discovered in Venezuela's Lake Maracaibo, petroleum boom results / Acreage offshore Baku drained to accommodate drilling / Multi-valve christmas tree developed / Primitive hole survey instruments developed / Cylindrical-ram blowout preventer developed (Cameron/Abercrombie) / Patent filed for cement jet mixer (Halliburton). 1924- First platform erected on Venezuela's Lake Maracaibo / First in-line crown block. 1925- Production begins on artificial island in Llyich Bay (Caspian Sea) / API addresses standardization of tool and pipe joint threads / Drilling control instrumentation developed (Martin-Decker). 1926- First electric submersible pump used / Gyroscopic well survey device (Sperry-Sun). 1927- First electric log run in well (Schlumberger) / Concrete pillings used under platform (Lake Mracaibo-Raymond) / Oil discovered in Iraq (Turkish Petroleum), petroleum boom results. 1928- Electric logging wellbore begins (Schlumberger) / Mud shaker screens borrowed from mining industry / Patent awarded for submersible barge drilling unit (Giliasco) / Electric welding of pipeline joints. 1929- The Great Depression begins, curtailling oil consumption / Viscosity control agents introduced to mud systems / Mud weight hydrometer developed
1930 to 1939 1930- Trestlles built into Caspian Sea for oil drilling / Well depths surpass 10,000 ft. / Rotary rigs surpass cable tool rigs in number / Bentonite introduced for drilling fluids. 1932- Iran's government expropriates oil industry / Oil discovered in Barhain / First gravel pack job (Layne) / Drilling rigs mounted on barges (McBride-Texas Co.) / First independant piled platform (Rincon-California). 1933- Schools address education of drilling personel / First gun perforation job (Layne Wells) / Second independant piled platform (Creole-Louisiana) / First planned directional wells with whipstock device (Eastman) / First submersible platform begins well (Lake Pelto-Texaco) / Standard Oil of California (Chevron) gets heavily involved in drilling for oil in Saudi Arabia. 1934- Drilling engineers begin serious exchanges of technology / First standard steel platform developed (Lake Maracaibo-Raymond) / First US field found with geophysical methods (Old Ocean, Texas) / First tender-supported platform (Lake Maracaibo) / Tool joints welded to drill pipe / Sand content measurement device developed (Baker). 1935- Oil based drilling fluid used. 1937- First successful well in the Gulf of Mexico (Creole-Superior/Pure) / First horizontal well drilled (Yarega, USSR) / First caliper log (Kinley) / First gamma ray log (Humble Oil) / On-site mud logging begins. 1938- Petroleum boom in Kuwait and Saudi Arabia / First well drilled offshore Texas (Galveston Bay-Standard Oil) / Mexico's government expropriates oil industry / Portable drilling mast developed. 1939- World War II begins in Europe / First well drilled on concrete base offshore Brazil.
1940 to 1949 1940- First barge mounted drilling rigs developed / Steel-concrete caisson used to support rig (Lake Maracaibo) / Aviation Fuel. 1941- United States enters World War II after attack at Pearl Harbor. 1943- First subsea completion (Lake Erie, USA). 1945- First offshore US lease sale / World War II ends / Power tongs and slips introduced. - Piston corer for ocean bottom developed (Kullenberg). 1946- First use of steel platform pillings (Eugene Island- Magnolia). 1947- First tender supported platform (Ship Shoal-Kerr McGee). United Nations-US dispute over continental shelf ownership settled / US government, states dispute offshore water bottom ownership / Humble Oil buys 19 Navy LSTs for tender conversion. 1949- First offshore heavy lift barge (150 tons-McDermott). - First modern submersible barge built ( Breton Sound 20 - Hayward) / 11 fields found in the Gulf of Mexico with 44 exploratory wells.
1950- First application of wave force studies (Morrison). 1953- State of Texas holds first offshore lease sale / US federal-states tidelands dispute resolved / US federal-states tideland dispute resolved. 1954- Brazil's Petrobas begins offshore exploration / First hydraulic rotary rig developed / First platform for 100 ft water depths (McDermott) / First jackup drilling unit built (Barge No.1 - Delong design) / First mat supported jackup driller ( Mr.Gus - Bethlehem design) / First offshore pipeline laid (Gulf of Mexico - Brown & Root) / First directional control bottom- hole assembly / First purpose-built submersible ( Mr.Charlie - Odeco). 1955- Saudi Arabia's Safaniya offshore field discovered / George Bush becomes president of Zapata Oil / First three-leg jackup driller ( Scorpion - LeTourneau design) / Analog computers used to study ocean wave data / Modern supply vessel designated (Laborde - Tidewater). 1956- Oil discovered in Nigeria and Algeria, petroleum boom results / First deep water bottle submersible ( Rig 46 – Kerr McGee) / First drillship launched ( CUSS 1 - California). 1957- First oil discovery off Texas (High Island/Stanolind) / First US Gulf gas flow ashore (Shell). 1958- Subsea completions proposed (McEvoy) / Through tubing workovers begin offshore / Last year that production depth equalled drilling depth (135 ft) / North Sea territorial boundaries delineated / First commercial helicopter service (US Gulf - PHI) / First purpose built pipelayer ( BAR 207 - Brown & Root) / First wireline retrievable subsurface safety valve (Camco). 1959- Operators plan 100 wells in Lake Erie / High temperature cement developed (Halliburton) / Flexible flowline installed (US Gulf - Shell) / Offshore rotating hoist lift 800 tons / Sealed bearing drill bit developed / First gas compression platform (US Gulf - Shell) / Petroleum boom in Libya. 1950 to 1959
1960- OPEC founded / Towed fish locates underwater pipelines (Shell) / First offshore sulphur mine completed (Freeport) / Cement bond log developed (Schlumberger). 1961- First subsea well completed in the Gulf of Mexico (Shell) / Dynamically positioned CUSS I drills first MOHO well of La Jolla / First use of dynamic positioning (Eureka - Shatto) / Spool pipelaying method developed (Aquatic Contractors) / Seafloor blowout preventor developed / First remote control unmanned production platforms (Gulf Oil) / First single boat moving seismic collection method (Socony Mobil) / First underwater pipeline trencher (Orinoco/Phillips) / First computer program for fracture/Acidizing (Dowell). 1962- Fixed platform depth reaches 200 ft (US Gulf/Gulf Oil) / Divers reach 285 ft. water depth (US Gulf/Ketchman) / Robotic forerunner of ROV begins operation (Shell) / Largest submersible built for 175 ft depth ( Rig54 - Kerr McGee) / Second generation drillship built ( C.P Baker - Reading & Bates) / First converted semi-submersible ( Blue Water No. 1 - Collipp) / First commercial reel pipelay vessel launched ( U-303 ). 1963- Drilling begins off Libyan coastline / Oil strike in Cook Inlet, Alaska (Shell) / Pipelay water depth reaches 264 ft. (California/Shell) / First newbuilt semi-submersible ( Ocean Driller - Laborde/Graham) / Custom built drilling fluid transport vessel developed (Baroid). 1964- First strike offshore Nigeria (Gulf Oil) / Phillips Petroleum begins drilling off Norway / Twin derricks mounted on platform (US Gulf/Humble) / Microwave data transmission beginsin US Gulf (Shell) / Second generation semi-submersible ( Blue Water No. 2 ). 1965- First wildcat offshore Australia (Bass Stait - Esso) / JOIDES coring program begins off Florida (Glomar Challenger) / Mobil drilling fleet reaches 75 units / Offshore Company becomes largest rig owner (16 units) / Single buoy mooring system tested (Qatar/Shell) / Low temperature tough steels introduced / First triangular semi-submersible (Sedco135 - Southeastern). 1966- First wildcat drilled off France (Esso) / USSR's first jackup goes to work (Aspheron - Baku) / Gas source seismic profilling introduced ( Shell) / Britain has four offshore gas strikes / First well drilled off Turkey (Conoco) / First well drilled off Malaysia (Sarawak) / USSR, Brazil order jackups / Three jackup drilling units sink (US Gulf, Adriatic) / Second generation pipelay barge (North Sea Brown&Root) / Twin pipelines laid in 8 knots cross current (McDermott - Cook Inlet) / First US Gulf subsea completions (Sinclair). 1967- First Australian offshore discovery (Bass Stait - Exxon) / First well in Mexico's bay of Campeche (Atun) / Oil struck at Prudhoe Bay, Alaska / One mile offset wellbore achieved (Whitley Bay - Safari) / Diving depth reach 600ft / Pipeline hot-tapdeveloped (Ocean Systems - Union Carbide) / Netherlands IHC builds Gusto-design jackup for the USSR (Chazar) / Tension and curved pontoon used to lay deepwater pipe (Gulf of Mexico) / Computerized well data monitoring developed (Humble) / Diverless subsea completion (Brown Oil Tools). 1968- First offshore Technology Conference held / First major oil strike in the North Sea (Ekofisk - Phillips) / US satellite transit navigation system set up / First oil transshipment takes place (Shell) / Petroleum discovered in Alaska’s Prudhoe Bay, not exploited until 1977. 1969- Brazil's Petrobas begins exploration offshore Sergipe / Santa Barbara, (California) blowout and pipeline leak / Doppler sonar improves marine seismic accuracy / First coiled tubing rig job (Bowen- Itco) / First center-ramp pipelay vessel launched ( LB 22 - McDermott) / First semi-submersible pipelay vessel ( Choctaw I - Santa Fe) / Petroleum discovered in the North Sea, not exploited until 1975. 1960 to 1969
1970- Deep ocean mining operations underway (Deepsea Venture) / US requires enviromental impact statements / Second major oil strike in the North Sea (Forties - BP) / First deepwater re-entry ( Glomar Challenger - 13,000 ft) / Offshore survival capsules deployed / Tanker transits Northwest Passage in winter (Manhatten). 1971- PDC bits tested (Christensen/Shell). 1972- 20 fields found in the Persian/Arabian Gulf. - Venezuela begins expropriation of oil industry / First use of automatic welding on pipelay barge (North Sea) / Bright spot seismic technology developed / Landsat becomes available for remote sensing. 1973- Investment in the US Gulf rises to $16 billion / Scale tension-leg platform concept tested (California) / Gravity/magnetics data added to seismic picture / First surface diving support vessel deployed (North Sea) / First "energy crisis": Arab oil embargo against the U.S. in retaliation for U.S. support of Israel in the Yom Kippur war. 1974- Glomar Explorer lifts Soviet submarine from 11,000 ft depth / First strike in Canadian Artic (Adgo/Imperial) / US Gulf's Destin Dome found to be dry (Exxon) / 800 platforms installed to date in US Gulf 1974- First pipeline laid by surface tow (Lake Geneva) / Pipelay exceeds 1,000 ft water depth ( Castoro V - Saipem) / First one atmosphere diving suit used (North Sea- Oceaneering) / Drilling water depth hits 2,150 ft (Gabon/Shell). 1975- First Condeep platform installed at Brent (460 ft - Shell/Esso) / First Campeche Bay strike off Mexico (Chac). Reel pipelay exceeds 1,000 ft water depth (Chickasaw) / First floating production sytem begins work ( Argy II - Hamilton). 1976- OPEC producing two-thirds of free world's oil. 1976- Seismic data streamer tracking introduced / Pipelay barges with 1,000 ft capability ( Viiking Piper - ETP1601 ) / First subsea alignment/welding frame developed / First guyed tower platform (Lena/Exxon). 1977- COMEX simulates dives to 2,000 ft. - First tanker production system installed (Castellon - Shell) / Shell's three-piece Cognac platform installed (1,030 ft - US Gulf). 1978- 140 subsea completions installed worldwide / First measurement-while-drilling system introduced (Teleco) / Deepwater welding (300 meters) certified / First bottom-towed pipeline (Statfjord) / Concrete gravity platform exceeds 500,000 tons (Ninian) / Pipeline exceeds 200 miles in length (Frigg to St. Fergus) / Computer convert velocity data into geological information. 1979- Second "energy crisis": Iranian revolution causes major disruptions in oil supplies from the Persian Gulf . / Three Mile Island nuclear accident / Ixtoc I well blows out off Mexico / Pipelaying exceeds 2,000 ft water depth ( Castoro VI - Sicily) / First semi-submersible construction vessel deployed ( Uncle John ) 1970 to 1979
1980- Kielland semi accommodation unit capsizes (Ekofisk Edda) / Iraq invades Iran, OPEC troubles begin / World economic recession reduces demand for oil / Louisiana Offshore Oil Port completed / First significant UK tax hike ($2.2 billion/year). 1981- Largest water injection program launched (Ecofisk - Phillips) / First offshore horizontal well drilled (Rospo Mare - Elf). 1982- Ocean Ranger semi drilling unit sinks (Hibernia - Odeco) / 108 mobile drilling units delivered (total 574) / OPEC establishes production quotas (and has occasional difficulties in having the member countries abide by them). 1983- NYMEX oil trading begins / Demand for oil continues decline, inventories rising / Transworld Rig 46 completes 18 year contract (Gulf - Nigeria) / First tension-leg platform operational (Hutton/Conoco) / First guyed tower installed (Lena/US Gulf/Exxon). 1984- Offshore production surpasses 14 million b/d (26% of total world) / Saudia Arabia reduces large oil output to support prices / Buyouts and takeovers of US oil companies escalate / Mobil drilling unit fleet peaks at 603 units / First tension-leg platform in operation (Hutton - Conoco). 1985- Support vessel fleet peaks at 5,000 worldwide / Demand for mobil drilling unit drops to 530 / Oil prices drop to $10.00 per bbl / First floater installed in US Gulf (1,400ft - Placid Oil). 1986- Chernobyl disaster / Deepest US offshore well drilled (25,000ft - Apache). 1987- Demand for mobil drilling unit drops to 275 / Alaska's first artic offshore field onstream (Endicott) / Jolliet TLWP installed in US Gulf (Conoco). 1988- Oil prices remain below $18.00/bbl / Piper A platform destroyed (UK - North Sea) / Drilling water depth reaches 7,500ft (Shell - Gulf of Mexico) / Deepest fixed platform installation (1,353ft - Bullwinkle/Shell) / First minimal platform emerge in US Gulf / Emergency shutdown valves mandated in UK North Sea. 1989- Exxon Valdez tanker accident (Valdez, Alaska) / Platform removals outpace installations in US Gulf / First US tension leg platform (1,760ft - Jolliet/Conoco) / 3D seismic imaging developed. 1980 to 1989
1990 to 1994 1990- Iraq invades Kuwait (3 rd Energy crisis) sending oil prices to $35.00 per bbl 1991- Oil prices begin slide as Iraq/Kuwait conflict ends / Collapse of Soviet System, opening of Eastern Europe. 1992- US major's international budgets exceed US allocations / Russia/CIS countries provide new investment opportunities. 1993- Oil prices weaken to $13.00-15.00/bbl / Higher gas prices push up US Gulf of Mexico activity / Low oil prices, UK tax policies reduce North Sea drilling activity / Operators begin partnering, integrated services. 1991- First offshore sand control fracture-packing job / Petrobas installs subsea tree in 2,360ft water depths / 670 mile long Zeepipe installation underway (Brown&Root) / Supercomputer workstation processes 3D seismic model / Zero discharge drilling units mandated for some areas. 1992- Saga's Snorre TLP installed / $5 billion Barents Sea development proposed (Stockmanovskoye) / Sleipner A Condeep sinks in Norwegian fjord. 1993- Second tension leg platform installed in US Gulf (Auger/Shell) / Layaway subsea tree for 6,000ft water depths (Petrobas) / First J-lay pipelaying operation (McDermott - Shell) / First threaded flowline installed (BP) / Shearable completion riser joint (Petrobas) / First successful subsalt imaging and discovery. 1994- Spoolable gas lift completion developed (Camco) / Shell Auger TLP installed.
1995 to 2002 1998- The Baku region (and the Caspian Sea in general) again becomes the focus of interest of oil companies; may turn out to be the "Persian Gulf of the 21st century," but the key issue is how to transport all this oil to the open seas and the world markets / British Petroleum announces $48 bn acquisition of Amoco and then $27bn for Arco / Exxon responds by acquiring Mobil / Era of oil “Super-Majors” begins. 1999-Petroleum is again as inexpensive as bottled water, and as cheap as it was before the energy crises of the 1970s / Shell does an “internal merger” (restructuring) and as a result sees a share price gain of about 30% / BP also sees a 30% increase in share price. 2000-BP shares plunge 20% due to investors skepticism of the company’s aggressive growth targets and its refusal to raise its dividends in line with competitors / Exxon shares gained 8% and Shell’s remained flat. 2001-World Trade Center and the Pentagon are attacked by terrorists on 9.11.01 / Italian tanker leaves the Russian Black Sea port of Novorossiysk in October with the first load of oil to flow through a new 990-mile pipeline linking Tengiz field in Kazakhstan to the open seas. / Russian oil terminal opens at Primorsk on the Gulf of Finland to bring more crude from western Siberia, Russia’s booming oil zone, to Europe via the Baltic / the last great oil rush begins. 2002-U.S. goes to war with Iraq, oil production ceases there / Experts do not always agree how much oil is still in the ground. Many factors such as new technology may change our ability to find and get oil over the coming years. However one estimate for the world’s remaining oil supply that many scientists believe is correct is 2.3 trillion barrels (that’s 2,300,000,000,000 barrels!). The world is now using 80 million (80,000,000) barrels of oil A DAY !
2003 to 2033 2003 -the world looks to Russia for alternative oil supply / the BPTNK joint- venture is formed making BP first of the “super majors” in Russia . Natural gas prices are increased along with oil prices because the two products are close competitors. The coal price has been adjusted upwards to account for the transport cost element. A higher view of oil reserves would assume an ultimate stock of recoverable conventional oil of 3 trillion barrels, compared with the lower assumption of 2.3 trillion barrels. This view postpones the production peak of conventional oil and the associated rise in world oil price to 2020. The effect of the lower oil price on world oil demand is estimated to be small.
2003 to 2033 <ul><li>One of the problems is that we are always increasing our need for oil. </li></ul><ul><li>By the year 2010 our oil usage is expected to rise to 95 million barrels of oil a day . </li></ul><ul><li>By 2020 our usage is expected to rise to 110 million barrels of oil a day . </li></ul><ul><li>Based on currently known oil fields & reserves estimates there is only about 78 years of world oil supply remaining for consumption (assuming these rates of use.) </li></ul>
Preview of “The Prize” PBS series (a seminal study of oil politics) <ul><li>Author Daniel Yergin states: “Access to large sources of Oil has long constituted a strategic prize…it enables nations to accumulate wealth, to fuel their economies, to produce and to sell goods and services, to build, to buy, to move, to acquire and manufacture weapons, to win wars.” </li></ul>