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Keynote Cloud Jw

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Talk given to the Silicon Valley Cloud Computing group on September 24th 2011.

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Keynote Cloud Jw

  1. 1. A Brief History Of Cloud (..and a brief future of PaaS) James Watters
  2. 2. • James Watters: @wattersjames• Last 10 years: strategy, business development, technology partnership roles at Sun and VMware• Projects: Cloud Foundry, vCloud, Sun volume systems, Solaris• Today is my personal take only....
  3. 3. • Agenda • What were the ‘Cloud’ marketing claims? • How are we doing against them? • So what’s next?
  4. 4. On the phone with AWS in 2007...
  5. 5. Goal: Get Solaris onEC2 with payments back to Sun.
  6. 6. Amazon: Daily payouts, small-large amounts,tiny % costs (DevPay)
  7. 7. Sun: ~$1200 cost for P.O., 45 day cycle
  8. 8. How’d we get there?
  9. 9. • Big $ transaction, for big transactions • RAS • Highly specialized IO• Small transaction, for small(er) systems • Ease of +1 system scaling • Commodity IO
  10. 10. Cloud is not a mainframe
  11. 11. The ‘Cloud’ marketing claims: #1 Easy provisioning #2 ‘Commodity’ pricing # 3 ‘Elasticity and scaling’
  12. 12. Easy provisioning
  13. 13. “$1,279-per-hour, 30,000-core cluster built onEC2 cloud”
  14. 14. Now estimated at ~80k/day
  15. 15. ~2.4M x86 servers sold in 2q11• In same period over ~5M virtual machines and cloud servers created.• New tool chains being born to manage new provisioning and server lifecycle philosophy...
  16. 16. #2 Commodity pricing
  17. 17. DRAM is a near commodity
  18. 18. -25%/yr last three years
  19. 19. “Is there a site that offers price history for variousAmazon Web Services such as EC2, Cloudfront,etc?I would like to be able to forecast that if somethinglike a small on demand EC2 instance costs $0.085per hour today that it will likely half in cost to $0.043per hour a year from now. Similarly if I have 10GB offiles in S3 storage how will the cost be affected overa similar span of time? I can only imagine, that likeall technology, the cost will go down.”
  20. 20. “There hasnt really been a need for anyone tomake such a site since prices have only changed acouple times in the many years EC2 has beenaround. Less than once every other year! TheCPU-hour price of a small instance has onlychanged once in the past 5 years -- from itsoriginal $0.10 to $0.085.”
  21. 21. • RDS launch October 2009 • 2009 XL DB Instance: .88/hr • Today: $.88/hr • Aligned to RAM pricing declines = $.49/hr
  22. 22. EC2 does cut prices,strategically...you are at their mercy.
  23. 23. The great escape
  24. 24. Z-Cloud
  25. 25. Maybe Google is big enough?
  26. 26. or...not...2x-10x
  27. 27. Even at scale you still need EM4J!
  28. 28. Cloud myth debunked:Scale is more important than software.
  29. 29. # 3 ‘Elastic’ Scalability
  30. 30. Follow The Alpha Geeks
  31. 31. Story of Urban Airship• August 2009: Sent over one million production notifications• August 2011: Sent over five billion production notifications• Tracking over 300 million installations• Started on EC2..
  32. 32. “What is the magicbullet? Real hardware. know, I know...”--Adam Lowry, Urban Airship
  33. 33. Cloud Abstraction: Meet Network Oversubscription...
  34. 34. Not Clear?
  35. 35. “EC2 hates your database”--Adam Lowry, Urban Airship
  36. 36. But...
  37. 37. “I miss EC2’s ease of use”
  38. 38. Insiders hate the ‘cloud’ term because it promises too much
  39. 39. Five years in, what’s next?
  40. 40. Moores Law is for Hardware Only• Does not apply to software• Productivity gains not keeping up with hardware and bandwidth• Writing software is hard, painful, and still very much a craft Credit: @chanezon
  41. 41. Moores Law is for Hardware Only Credit @chanezon
  42. 42. Ease of use as software
  43. 43. github.com/cloudfoundry
  44. 44. instances +10 (in 5 seconds)
  45. 45. Appfog
  46. 46. “VMC needs to be our new developerinterface, I’m sick of VMClouds.”--SVP of top 5 Bank
  47. 47. Code push without VM complexity is the rightful evolution...
  48. 48. The PaaS layer must be portable and multi- cloud for #2, #3 to progress
  49. 49. @wattersjames

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