CIRED laboratory

HYPATIA NASSOPOULOS, PATRICE DUMAS, STEPHANE HALLEGATTE


 CLIMATE CHANGE, PRECIPITATIONS AND WATER MANA...
Mediterranean r.+ CC + Water = ?

                 7% world’s population

                 3% world’s water resources,
   ...
Climate change and Hydraulic infrastructures
  Present: stationary climate without taking into consideration climate chang...
Simulation of dam operation


  Simulate inflows under different constant precipitation and temperature
changes by using l...
Inflow and demand under climate change

  IPCC models output under A2 scenario       linear trends of
precipitation change...
Investment decision, Cost Benefit Analysis
Cost: Rock fill dam, trapezoidal section, local height/volume geometry
Benefits...
Results




          7
Results




          8
Results




          9
Results




          10
Conclusions

Optimal storage capacity increases with increasing
precipitations

Optimal storage capacity increases with in...
obrigada!




            12
Upcoming SlideShare
Loading in …5
×

Hypatia Nassopoulos Ppt

1,118 views

Published on

0 Comments
0 Likes
Statistics
Notes
  • Be the first to comment

  • Be the first to like this

No Downloads
Views
Total views
1,118
On SlideShare
0
From Embeds
0
Number of Embeds
11
Actions
Shares
0
Downloads
7
Comments
0
Likes
0
Embeds 0
No embeds

No notes for slide

Hypatia Nassopoulos Ppt

  1. 1. CIRED laboratory HYPATIA NASSOPOULOS, PATRICE DUMAS, STEPHANE HALLEGATTE CLIMATE CHANGE, PRECIPITATIONS AND WATER MANAGEMENT INFRASTRUCTURES Water in Africa: Hydro-Pessimism or Hydro-Optimism? CEAUP, 2-3 October, Porto Portugal 1
  2. 2. Mediterranean r.+ CC + Water = ? 7% world’s population 3% world’s water resources, temporal and spatial variability Climate change: change in precipitation patterns, decrease 2
  3. 3. Climate change and Hydraulic infrastructures Present: stationary climate without taking into consideration climate change When variability increases, increasing dam and reservoir dimensions allows to capture more inter-annual variability until all is captured How to keep a satisfactory level of reliability by optimizing the available resources? Small mountainous catchments in Algeria and Greece Sensitivity analysis of climate model choice on the hydraulic infrastructure’s Optimal Dimension Cost Benefit Analysis of different dam heights under climate change optimal storage capacity 3
  4. 4. Simulation of dam operation Simulate inflows under different constant precipitation and temperature changes by using local run-off monthly coefficients Simulate dam operations (monthly) using simple rules: Serve fixed demand Overflow when inflow exceeds storage capacity If available water less than demand, consider that demand can not be reliably satisfied Compute demand at 95% reliability for different inflow changes 4
  5. 5. Inflow and demand under climate change IPCC models output under A2 scenario linear trends of precipitation change Hypothesis of demand adapting to the available resources Each year the annual demand at 95% reliability for this inflow change is used 5
  6. 6. Investment decision, Cost Benefit Analysis Cost: Rock fill dam, trapezoidal section, local height/volume geometry Benefits: Dt Demand at 95% reliability with climate change as computed previously Water price per m3 p Discount rate ρ NPV= (∑(1/(1+ρ))t p Dt 0.95)-Cost For each IPCC model, demand at a fixed level of reliability,water price and discount rate, we find the storage capacity which maximises the NPV 6
  7. 7. Results 7
  8. 8. Results 8
  9. 9. Results 9
  10. 10. Results 10
  11. 11. Conclusions Optimal storage capacity increases with increasing precipitations Optimal storage capacity increases with increasing variability For the 12 models precipitation and variability are correlated Wide range of optimal storage capacity 11
  12. 12. obrigada! 12

×