{Ca} the future of video


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Presentation made at the inaugural meeting of the Mobile Video Alliance in London.

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{Ca} the future of video

  1. 1. {Core Analysis} BREAK THE SURFACE THE FUTURE OF MOBILE VIDEO Patrick Lopez {Core Analysis} Mobile Video Alliance {Core Analysis} All rights reserved © 2013 – Public 1
  2. 2. COMPANY BACKGROUND Company History Founder and CEO of {Core Analysis}, I provide advisory services to technology vendors, board of directors, carriers and venture capital firms on OTT video. As an analyst, I present at influential industry forums and conferences and publish an acclaimed blog, industry articles and reports. In 2013, {Core Analysis} was exclusive advisor to Opera Software in its acquisition of Skyfire for $150m. Prior to {Core Analysis}, I have 15 years of international progressive experience in marketing, strategy and product management in the United States, Canada, Switzerland, Ireland and France. {Core Analysis} Specialities Expertise: • Technical and strategic due diligence • Market Analysis • Companies evaluation and selection • Value proposition creation • Market category creation • Business case and forecast • New product introduction • Competitive analysis and market share protection / increase strategies • Product positioning and pricing • Board, investors, press and industry analysts relations t Publications and Interviews Over 100 interviews with The Wall Street Journal, Wireless Week, CNNmoney, Washington Times, In-Stat Group, Telephony, Fast Track Wireless, Wireless Week, Wireless News, NetsEdge Research, Telecom Trends, RCR Wireless News , CNN, Wireless developer network, Total Telecoms, La tribune, Global Wireless, Telecommunications International Edition, Global Mobile, CNBC Europe, Broadcast News Analyst Reports: Various analyst reports I have collaborated to or written include Deutsche Bank, JP Morgan, Morgan Stanley Credit Suisse First Boston, IDC, Frost & Sullivan, Mobilestream, Stylus Communications, Yankee group, Ovum, Visiongain, Informa, Forrester Research... I hold a MBA in Corporate Management and a Bachelor Degree in Marketing Strategy. {Core Analysis} All rights reserved © 2013 – Public 2
  3. 3. MISSION AND EXPERIENCE {Core Analysis} {Core Analysis} provides consultancy services on OTT video. EXPERTISE EXPERIENCE Technical and strategic due diligence RFx support Market Analysis Vendor evaluation and selection Technology evaluation Business cases and forecasts Product strategy Pricing strategy Competitive attack plan Due Diligence Acquisitions Turn around Financing Product, technology design & launches World's first dedicated video optimization engine World's first commercial MMSC Sent world's first MMS on CDMA World's first content, service and subscriber management for mobile TV World's first messaging tiered architecture Philips first WAP phone {Core Analysis} All rights reserved © 2013 – Public 3
  4. 4. MORE BANDWIDTH, MORE VIDEO {Core Analysis} Source: Mobidia SK Telecom, LTE Asia 2013 2013 3G vs. 4G data consumption patterns Users exposed to more bandwidth consume more. Video and multimedia drive the growth. {Core Analysis} All rights reserved © 2013 – Public 4
  5. 5. VIDEO QOE IS THE RESULT OF MISALIGNMENT {Core Analysis} All rights reserved © 2013 – Public {Core Analysis} 5
  6. 6. VIDEO IS BIG IN MOBILE {Core Analysis} But mobile is small in video (although growing fast) Mobile networks Video Video delivery Other Fixed 6% WiFi Cellular 4% 45% 55% Source: Ooyala 2013 Video Index 90% {Core Analysis} All rights reserved © 2013 – Public 6
  7. 7. CHALLENGES {Core Analysis} User experience Wireless networks spectrum is a finite resource Mobile video delivery QoE is mediocre even in LTE networks Video is new for most network operators Resolution from SD, to HD and now 4K stretch the limits of the networks Adaptive bit rate can create race conditions between clients that further deteriorate experience Network load and user experience becomes unpredictable Network Network operators want to prioritize and optimize traffic Deep packet inspection Parental control Policy control Transparent caching Video lossless optimization (pacing, manifest manipulation…) Video Lossy optimization (transrating, transcoding, frame dropping…) Content Premium content providers want to control user experience Encrypt video (SPDY…) Adaptive bit rate New codecs (HEVC H265, vp9, Daala…) Edge packaging and ad insertion Edge caching {Core Analysis} All rights reserved © 2013 – Public 7
  8. 8. THE MOBILE VIDEO SCENARIOS {Core Analysis} All rights reserved © 2013 – Public {Core Analysis} 8
  9. 9. OPPORTUNITIES {Core Analysis} Operators Content Is it video (vs. browsing a video site)? What are the available resolutions? Is it device-appropriate (format)? Is it premium? Is it WiFi or Cellular? Is it Edge, UMTS, HSPA, LTE, LTE A… Is the subscription prepaid / postpaid? Is speed or volume capped? What is the user’s class of service (bronze, silver, gold…) Is the cell congested? Is the connection bad because: Subscription or transactional? Is it an Ad? The device can’t render the video The network is congested (payload or signalling) The subscriber is far from the antenna The data rate is capped … What is the delivery QoE? {Core Analysis} All rights reserved © 2013 – Public 9
  10. 10. ADVERTISING IS UNDER-EXPLOITED IN MOBILE {Core Analysis} All rights reserved © 2013 – Public {Core Analysis} 10
  11. 11. {Core Analysis} Source: Interactive Advertizing Bureau 2013 ADVERTISING IS UNDER-EXPLOITED IN MOBILE {Core Analysis} All rights reserved © 2013 – Public 11
  12. 12. FROM PRICING TO SERVICE DIFFERENTIATION {Core Analysis} Opportunities in video management More efficient codecs, adaptive streaming for premium content, and new bandwidth hungry formats (4K, super HD…) increase opportunities to offer differentiated video services. Actively managing subscribers’ video experience is key: Setting expectations baseline in term of speed, price, quality Create quality/speed/encoding based class of service Actively upsell classes based on location, time of day, congestion Manage and enforce SLAs with premium content providers Manage quality / speed / cost with free content providers Formats, codecs Devices h.265 HEVC LTE Content providers Apple Smartphones 4K Adaptive streaming Tablets 3D DASH Best effort Fablets Super HD 8K Guaranteed fair quality Guaranteed highest quality TVs {Core Analysis} All rights reserved © 2013 – Public 12 Guaranteed SD high quality
  13. 13. FROM PRICING TO SERVICE DIFFERENTIATION {Core Analysis} Video necessitates management of speed, volume and quality Fair usage Unlimited Volume class QoE class Volume throttling Tariffs Speed cap Soft cap + throttling Location Congestion Hard cap Soft cap Content / App Service class Metered Time DPI (conditional access, volume, service type…) + PCRF (delivery speed, rating, application) Technology + optimization (encoding) + smart optimization (QoE) Video class of service management with: Gold, silver, bronze Enterprise Congestion… scenarios Differentiated by QoE tiers {Core Analysis} All rights reserved © 2013 – Public 13
  14. 14. POSSIBLE AREAS OF COLLABORATION Encoding best practice {Core Analysis} Business Api Encryption (type, level, transport, key sharing,…) Bit rate Resolution Buffer size Adaptive bit rate implementation Do not transcode flag Advertising flag Priority Minimum quality (encoding rate) accepted Sender pays, recipient pays, … Postpaid / prepaid Volume / sped cap Roaming Advice of quality Advice of charge Acceleration button… {Core Analysis} All rights reserved © 2013 – Public 14
  15. 15. NEW BUSINESS MODELS START TO APPEAR C Spire (USA) video duration charging {Core Analysis} Vodafone 2 sided model {Core Analysis} All rights reserved © 2013 – Public 15
  16. 16. CONTACTS {Core Analysis} Patrick Lopez CEO +1 514 823 0314 {Core Analysis} Blog: coreanalysis1.blogspot.com Web: coreanalysis.ca News: scoop.it/t/mobile-videoott-and-paytv Twitter: @coreanalysis patrick.lopez@coreanalysis.ca {Core Analysis} All rights reserved © 2013 – Public 16
  17. 17. {Core Analysis} BREAK THE SURFACE VIDEO OPTIMIZATION MARKET OVERVIEW Patrick Lopez {Core Analysis} Q4 2013 {Core Analysis} All rights reserved © 2013 – Public 17