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Presentation Causes of War

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Presentation Causes of War

  1. 1. History teaches us that war begins when governments believe the price of aggression is cheap. <ul><li>Ronald Reagan </li></ul>
  2. 2. Why did Georgia do it? 2008 South Ossetia War Causes of War Prof. Leng Jan. 2011
  3. 3. <ul><li>Background </li></ul><ul><li>Research Design </li></ul><ul><li>Analysis </li></ul><ul><li>Research Gaps </li></ul><ul><li>Conclusion </li></ul>Outline:
  4. 4. <ul><li>Pre-Soviet </li></ul><ul><li>Soviet Times </li></ul><ul><li>1990’s </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Ossetia/ Georgia </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Georgia/Russia </li></ul></ul>Background
  5. 5. 2008 South Ossetia War
  6. 6. Research Design: Hypotheses
  7. 7. When war is declared, Truth is the first casualty. <ul><li>Arthur Ponsonby </li></ul>
  8. 8. Analysis: Optimism and Opportunity <ul><li>Internal Factors </li></ul><ul><li>(Russia vs. Georgia) </li></ul><ul><li>External Factors </li></ul><ul><li>(Possible Reactions) </li></ul>Lack of Information? Georgia Russia Military Power $1 bn 6% of GDP $40 bn Increased 20% Public Discord Relatively high Relatively high Economic Strength 12% GDP growth $10.3 bn 8.1% GDP growth $2.331 trillion Nationalism High High
  9. 9. Analysis: “weak state” <ul><li>Vertical (Medium/Low) </li></ul><ul><li>Warring factions </li></ul><ul><li>War on corruption </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Medium and lower levels </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Lack of Judicial reforms </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Still linked to executive branch </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Horizontal (Medium) </li></ul><ul><li>Lowered Freedom Rating </li></ul><ul><li>Mikheil Saakashvili </li></ul><ul><li>Use of force against protestors </li></ul><ul><li>Democratic elections </li></ul>
  10. 10. Analysis: clash of civilizations <ul><li>Micro </li></ul><ul><li>Previous Autonomy of Ossetia </li></ul><ul><li>Orthodox Christian mainly </li></ul><ul><li>67% Ethnic Ossetian </li></ul><ul><li>Macro </li></ul>
  11. 11. Research gaps <ul><li>Statistics to determine “War” </li></ul><ul><li>Hypo 4: Transitioning Democracy? </li></ul><ul><li>Why was Russia involved? </li></ul><ul><li>Mechanisms were lacking in the theories </li></ul>
  12. 12. <ul><li>Everyone lost </li></ul><ul><li>All hypotheses provide some incite </li></ul><ul><li>Manly due to sphere of influence politics, when the timing was right </li></ul>Conclusion
  13. 13. War may sometimes be a necessary evil. But no matter how necessary, it is always an evil, never a good. We will not learn how to live together in peace by killing each other's children. <ul><li>Jimmy Carter </li></ul>

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