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Negotiation as Poker Game

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"Win" your next negotiation AND your next session of Texas Holdem. Notes on this presentation will be on my blog soon. http://negotiationlawblog.com

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Negotiation as Poker Game

  1. 1. 04/03/10 (c) Victoria Pynchon, ADR Services, Inc.
  2. 2. <ul><ul><li>bargaining chips </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>poker face </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>bluff </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>play cards &quot;close to the vest” </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>read cues </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>tells </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>holding/raising </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>folding </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>cards on the table </li></ul></ul>04/03/10 (c) Victoria Pynchon, ADR Services, Inc. Negotiation, like poker, involves tactical decision-making based on incomplete information, in the face of uncertainty. Prof Steven Lubet, Northwestern University Law School
  3. 3. 04/03/10 (c) Victoria Pynchon, ADR Services, Inc.
  4. 4. <ul><li>Men initiate negotiations 4x more than women. </li></ul><ul><li>Negotiation Metaphors </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Men: &quot;winning ballgame”; &quot;wrestling match&quot; </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Women: &quot;going to the dentist.” </li></ul></ul>04/03/10 (c) Victoria Pynchon, ADR Services, Inc.
  5. 5. <ul><ul><li>Men negotiate first salary 4 times more than women </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Negotiating MBA starting salary = 7.4 % increase </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Women who negotiate salaries earn $1 million more than those who don’t </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Women own 40 % US biz but receive 2.3% of available equity capital </li></ul></ul>04/03/10 (c) Victoria Pynchon, ADR Services, Inc.
  6. 6. Rules 04/03/10 (c) Victoria Pynchon, ADR Services, Inc. Folkways Cognitive Biases
  7. 7. 04/03/10 (c) Victoria Pynchon, ADR Services, Inc.
  8. 8. 04/03/10 (c) Victoria Pynchon, ADR Services, Inc.
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  10. 10. 04/03/10 (c) Victoria Pynchon, ADR Services, Inc.
  11. 11. What You Need to Know Influential parties outside the dispute/deal External Market Forces “ Relevant” Facts Business Plans for All Parties Business Realities for All Parties Story and Emotion 04/03/10 (c) Victoria Pynchon, ADR Services, Inc.
  12. 12. <ul><li>“ The Most Important Factor in Negotiating International Diplomatic Agreements is Being Inside the Other Guy’s Decision Cycle” </li></ul><ul><li>General Colin Powell </li></ul><ul><li>Former US Secretary of State </li></ul>04/03/10 (c) Victoria Pynchon, ADR Services, Inc.
  13. 13. 04/03/10 (c) Victoria Pynchon, ADR Services, Inc.
  14. 14. 04/03/10 (c) Victoria Pynchon, ADR Services, Inc. <ul><li>make high initial demands </li></ul><ul><li>maintain them </li></ul><ul><li>make few (and small) concessions </li></ul><ul><li>adhere to a high level of aspiration </li></ul><ul><li>obtain as much information as possible </li></ul><ul><li>Give away little information </li></ul><ul><li>bluff </li></ul><ul><li>Mislead </li></ul><ul><li>threaten retaliation to gain compliance </li></ul>
  15. 15. <ul><li>Reciprocation </li></ul><ul><li>Commitment & consistency </li></ul><ul><li>Social proof </li></ul><ul><li>Liking </li></ul><ul><li>Authority </li></ul><ul><li>Scarcity </li></ul>04/03/10 (c) Victoria Pynchon, ADR Services, Inc.
  16. 16. 04/03/10 (c) Victoria Pynchon, ADR Services, Inc. The Heart and Mind of the Negotiator, Professor Leigh Thompson at the Kellogg School of Management , Northwestern University In controlled experiments, only seven percent of negotiators sought information from their bargaining partner that would have revealed his/her true goals when it would have been dramatically helpful to do so.
  17. 17. 04/03/10 (c) Victoria Pynchon, ADR Services, Inc. Changing the Other Guy’s Mind
  18. 18. 04/03/10 (c) Victoria Pynchon, ADR Services, Inc.
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  21. 21. 04/03/10 (c) Victoria Pynchon, ADR Services, Inc. ANCHORING The party making the first reasonable offer should prevail over his bargaining partner who must respond in the range set by that party.
  22. 22. 04/03/10 (c) Victoria Pynchon, ADR Services, Inc. Framing <ul><li>Present Losses as Gains </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Strong tendency to prefer avoiding losses over acquiring gains </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Use language that emphasizes your position & frames information in your favor </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>fewer rather than greater </li></ul></ul>
  23. 23. 04/03/10 (c) Victoria Pynchon, ADR Services, Inc.
  24. 24. 04/03/10 (c) Victoria Pynchon, ADR Services, Inc. Women’s economic performance in negotiations hinges on their ability to harness gender stereotypes in a self-serving direction . Professor Leigh Thompson, Kellogg School of Management Northwestern University
  25. 25. 04/03/10 (c) Victoria Pynchon, ADR Services, Inc. Widen bargaining range by sowing doubt
  26. 26. 04/03/10 (c) Victoria Pynchon, ADR Services, Inc.
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  28. 28. 04/03/10 (c) Victoria Pynchon, ADR Services, Inc.
  29. 29. 04/03/10 (c) Victoria Pynchon, ADR Services, Inc. <ul><li>Step One </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Ascertain own interests and reservation point (bottom line)   </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Ascertain identity of people necessary to obtain best overall deal </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Step Two </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Ascertain Other’s interests and reservation point </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>belief about the other side's bottom line powerful effect </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Know BATNA </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Anchor </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Plan # of bargaining moves </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>BE ALERT TO NEW DATA DURING NEGOTIATION </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>   </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Step Three :  Manipulate Zone of Possible Agreement </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Set high aspirations </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Make the first offer </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Frame your GAIN and their LOSS </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Widen bargaining range by &quot;sowing doubt”   </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Put more interests on the table </li></ul></ul>RECAP

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