Population: A boon or a bane

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Population: A boon or a bane

  1. 1. PHILIPPINEPOPULATION SIZE ANDGROWTH RATE:A BOON OR A BANE? Raymond Vincent A. Adriano Edwina M. Arceo Vivian T. Dabu Irish G. Sanchez Mary Grace T. Santos Ateneo Graduate School of Business, Clark
  2. 2. World Population• 2010 - 6.8 billion• 2025 - 8.1 billion• 2050 - 9.3 billion• 48% of the population worldwide lives on less than $2 a day
  3. 3. Barriers to Economic Growth• Insufficient capital formation• Shortage of human resources and entrepreneurial ability• Lack of social overhead capital• Constraints imposed by dependency on the already developed nations• Inefficient and corrupt bureaucracies
  4. 4. “….mass starvation would bean eventual result of“overpopulation.” This would beso because population increasesgeometrically, while foodproduction increases onlyarithmetically.” - Rev. Thomas Malthus author of the 1798 work An Essay on the Principle of Population
  5. 5. Economic and Political implications• Environmental degradation • Carbon dioxide emissions • Climate change• Migration• Urbanization• Nutrition• Sanitation• Aging population
  6. 6. The ASEAN
  7. 7. Chart Title 1980 1990250,000 1995200,000 1996 1997150,000 1998100,000 1999 2000 50,000 0
  8. 8. 2000-2009 ASEAN Population Country 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 BruneiDarussalam 336 343 350 358 365 372 379 374 381 388Cambodia 12,212 12,491 12,775 13,124 13,363 13,607 13,881 13,995 14,241 14,494Indonesia 224,784 228,437 231,328 234,893 238,452 241,973 245,452 234,693 237,512 240,271 Lao PDR 5,497 5,635 5,777 5,921 6,068 6,217 6,368 6,521 6,677 6,834 Malaysia 21,793 22,229 22,662 23,092 23,522 23,953 24,385 24,821 25,274 25,715Myanmar 41,734 41,994 42,238 42,510 42,720 42,909 47,382 47,373 47,758 48,137Philippines 81,159 82,841 84,525 84,619 86,241 87,857 89,468 91,077 96,061 97,976Singapore 4,151 4,300 4,452 4,608 4,353 4,425 4,492 4,553 4,608 4,657 Thailand 61,230 61,797 62,354 64,265 64,865 65,444 64,631 65,068 65,493 65,905 Viet Nam 78,773 79,939 81,098 81,624 82,689 83,535 84,402 85,262 86,116 86,967
  9. 9. 2000-2009 ASEAN Population
  10. 10. 2000-2009 ASEAN Growth Rate Country 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009Brunei Darussalam 2.17 2.11 2.06 2 1.95 1.9 1.87 1.81 1.785 1.759 Cambodia 2.27 2.25 2.24 1.8 1.8 1.81 1.78 1.729 1.752 1.765 Indonesia 1.63 1.6 1.54 1.52 1.49 1.45 1.41 1.213 1.175 1.136 Lao PDR 2.5 2.48 2.47 2.45 2.44 2.42 2.39 2.3 2.344 2.316 Malaysia 2.01 1.96 1.91 1.85 1.83 1.8 1.78 1.759 1.742 1.723 Myanmar 0.64 0.6 0.56 0.52 0.47 0.42 0.81 0.815 0.8 0.783 Philippines 2.07 2.03 1.99 1.92 1.88 1.84 1.8 1.764 1.991 1.957 Singapore 3.54 3.5 3.46 3.42 1.71 1.56 1.42 1.275 1.135 0.998 Thailand 0.93 0.91 0.88 0.95 0.91 0.87 0.68 0.663 0.64 0.615 Viet Nam 1.49 1.45 1.43 1.29 1.3 1.04 1.02 1.004 0.99 0.977
  11. 11. 2000-2009 ASEAN Growth Rate
  12. 12. Growing Population:an Asset or a Liability
  13. 13. Pres. BSC Aquino on Populationand Reproductive Health
  14. 14. Proponents of RH Bills
  15. 15. Lagman bill• The present population of the country of 88.7 million has galloped from 60.7 million 17 years ago. This makes the Philippines the 12th most populous nation in the world today. The Filipino women’s fertility rate of 3.05% is at the upper bracket of 206 countries. With four babies born every minute, the population is expected to balloon to an alarming 160 million in 2038.• It is worth noting, however, that available studies, data and statistics show that the Filipinos are responsive to having smaller-sized families through free choice of family planning methods:
  16. 16. Lagman Billa. The desired fertility rate of Filipino women is 2.5 children per woman. However, the actual total fertility rate is 3.5 or a difference of one child because of the lack of information and absence of access to family planning. The current unmet need for contraceptives for example is 23.15% for poor women and 13.6% for women who are not poor (2003 National Demographic and Health Survey)
  17. 17. Lagman Billb. 61% of currently married women do not wantadditional children (2003 National Demographicand Health Survey)c. 50.6% of the youth want to have only two children(2002 Young Adult Fertility and Sexuality Survey)d. 97% of all Filipinos believe it is important to have the ability to control one’s fertility or to plan one’s family. It is significant to note that 87% of the total respondents are Roman Catholic (February 2004 Pulse Asia Survey)
  18. 18. Lagman Bill• In July 1991, the Social Weather Stations conducted a survey that revealed that 97% of Filipinos want to have the ability to control their fertility and plan their families.• Notwithstanding these findings that favor smaller-sized families, this bill is not a population control measure with the sole objective of limiting population growth. It provides for population development that aims to: a) help couples/parents achieve their desired fertility size in the context of responsible parenthood;
  19. 19. Lagman Bill b. improve reproductive health of individuals and contribute to decreased maternal mortality rate, infant mortality and early child mortality; c. reduce incidence of teenage pregnancy and other reproductive health problems; and d. contribute to policies that will assist government to achieve a favorable balance between population and distribution, economic activities and the environment.
  20. 20. Lagman Bill• According to the UN Population Fund 2002 Report, “lower birth rates and slower population growth over the last three decades have contributed to faster economic progress in a number of developing countries.”• Moreover, the same Report disclosed that fertility declines accounted for 1/5th of the economic growth in East Asia between 1960 and 1995. Additionally, it showed that countries that invest in health, including reproductive health and family planning, and in education and women’s development register slower population growth and faster economic growth.• A consistent and coherent national population policy along with sound monetary and fiscal policies and good governance could propel our people toward sustainable human development.
  21. 21. The elements of reproductivehealth care include:1. Maternal, infant and child health and nutrition;2. Promotion of breastfeeding;3. Family planning information and services;4. Prevention of abortion and management of post-abortion complications;5. Adolescent and youth health;6. Prevention and management of reproductive tract infections (RTIs), HIV/AIDS and other sexually transmittable infections (STIs);
  22. 22. The elements of reproductivehealth care include:7. Elimination of violence against women;8. Education and counseling on sexuality and sexual and reproductive health;9. Treatment of breast and reproductive tract cancers and other gynecological conditions;10. Male involvement and participation in reproductive health;11. Prevention and treatment of infertility and sexual dysfunction; and12. Reproductive health education for the youth.
  23. 23. “There are two sides to the oft-used titleof this column. The positive side: the size ofthe population is a tremendous asset, bothas a source of manpower and as a base fora domestic market on which the economicgrowth of a country can be sustained,despite periodic ups and downs in the globalmarket. Without a large population, manyof whom have been sufficiently educatedthrough the decades, the Philippineswould not be attracting such high-growthsectors as electronic and semiconductormanufacturing and business processoutsourcing.
  24. 24. It would not have been able to send abroadmillions of Filipinos to earn billions ofdollars that they remit back to thePhilippines. Without a large population, thePhilippines would not have been able to avoida recession in 2009, when most of ourneighbors with smaller populations sufferednegative growth rates in their GDP. The othertwo countries in Southeast Asia that avoided arecession are Indonesia and Vietnam, twopopulous countries with large domesticmarkets. Indeed, population matters.” - Dr. Bernardo M. Villegas, PhD Manila Bulletin, July 25, 2010
  25. 25. References:• Case, Karl E; Fair, Ray C; Oster, Sharon: Principles of Economics, 9th edition, published by Pearson Education, Inc., publishing as Prentice Hall, Copyright © 2009 by Pearson Education, Inc., Chapter 36, Economic Growth in Developing and Transitional Economies, pp. 745-764.• Population Reference Bureau, 2010 World Population Data Sheet, http://www.prb.org/• http://www.eoearth.org/article/Population_growth_rate• http://www.unfpa.org/public/site/global/lang/en/pid/3856• http://www.brookings.edu/opinions/2010/0924_wgi_kaufmann/fig-1.aspx• www.aseansec.org/macroeconomic/Population.xls• CIA World Factbook- Unless otherwise noted, information in this page is accurate as of February 19, 2010• http://www.indexmundi.com/• http://www.theodora.com/wfbcurrent/indonesia/indonesia_people.html• http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_Indonesia#Population_growth_rate• http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_Thailand#Population_growth_rate• http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_Malaysia#Population_growth_rate• Villegas, Bernardo M., Population Matters, July 25, 2010, Manila Bulletin• Rep. Edcel C. Lagman, 14th Congress, HB No. 17, Explanatory Note, and Sec. 4.g, HB No. 5043

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