Newspaper extinction timeline


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Newspaper extinction timeline

  1. 1. Newspaper extinction timelineWhen newspapers in their current form will become insignificant* USA 2017 UK, Iceland 2019 Canada, Norway 2020 Finland, Singapore, Greenland 2021 Australia, Hong Kong 2022 Denmark 2023 New Zealand, Spain, Czech, Taiwan 2024 Poland, Sweden, Switzerland 2025 South Korea, Metro Russia, Belgium 2026 Netherlands, Ireland, Metro Brazil, Italy 2027 Austria, Slovakia, Greece, Portugal, U.A.E. 2028 France, Israel, Malaysia, Croatia 2029 Germany, Estonia 2030 Japan, Metro China 2031 Hungary, Lithuania 2032 Latvia, Metro Mexico 2033 Serbia, Saudi Arabia 2034 Bulgaria, Chile, Uruguay 2035 Russia, Turkey 2036 Metro South Africa, Thailand 2037 Mongolia 2038 Argentina 2039 — stripes indicate that newspapers will be extinct in metropolitan areas before regional areas Rest of the world 2040+ • Media strategy Created by Ross Dawson • Thought leadership content • Scenario planning Published under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 2.5 licence
  2. 2. Newspaper extinction timeline: key factors Technology uptake Economic Industry structure Increased cost Fixed bandwidth development Financial position of performance availability and costs Economic growth rate leading newspapers of mobile Mobile bandwidth Wealth inequality Balance of advertising phones availability and costs and print sales revenue Increased cost Development Urban/ regional wealth Smartphone and e-reader disparity Newspaper distribution performance of high penetration structures of tablets/ performance e-readers digital paper Changes in GLOBAL Uptake of NATIONAL newsprint digital news and print monetization production mechanisms costs Demographics Government Consumer behaviors Age structure, birth rates, Degree of regulation Media channel preferences Trends in and immigration Development Government financial Willingness to pay for news advertising Degree of urbanization support for media of open Relative interest in local spend and platforms Increase in literacy Censorship and and global news allocation obstruction* Notes to the timeline Services include: fen@futureexploration.netThis schedule for newspaper Newspapers in their Ways that newspaper publishers of • Media Strategy USA: (415) 315 9566extinction shows best current form becoming today will succeed in the transition • Scenario Planningestimates given current trends. insignificant is not the beyond “newspapers in their Australia: +61-2 9994 8011 Future Exploration Network helps • Future of Media WorkshopsThe timeline is intended to same as the death of current form” include transitioninghighlight the diversity of global news-on-paper, which to other channels, providing media organizations to engage with • Thought Leadership Contentmedia markets and stimulate will continue in a personalized news-on-paper, and the future, build effective strategies, • Executive Briefings anduseful strategic conversations. variety of forms. tapping niche markets. innovate, and achieve results. Keynotes