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Experiment Your Way Out of Recession

  1. Experiment your way out of recession 21st of March 2023
  2. Introduction to Conversionista! and ARC Data driven way of work and CRO Recession is not a new black Follow your user’s behavior 1 2 3 4 Agenda
  3. © Curamando 2019 © ARC 3 The ARC family
  4. +90 +1000 #1 in Growth & Experimentation Conversionistas! Oslo, Stockholm, Gothenburg & Malmö Clients 2010 Established We believe in the power of data as a driver for change. Using scientific methods, we reveal our client´s growth potential and improve the user experience. That's how we help companies achieve their business goals.
  6. Experience & Behavior Advisory Experimentation 6 Where to optimize your CRO journey Current state vs Goals Your teams have different capabilities and maturity levels. Understanding of your current strengths and weaknesses in the area of Conversion Optimization is the key to decide what actions need to be taken to optimize your CRO journey. When you have enough data and reports, but need insight and results. When you have many ideas but do not know which one is the best When you don’t know where you should start your CRO journey and how to manage your CRO for a great results When you truly want to understand why your users do what they do, and work with data-driven redesign and interaction concepts Examples why Area of expertise Data quality Analytics When data your gathering is not accurate, you need help with trackings or choosing the right tool and get technical part done INTRODUCTION TO CONVERSIONISTA! AND ARC
  7. Recession is not a new black! 7
  8. Recession Significant decline in economic activity, last for months or even years Rising level of unemployment (number of layoffs) Negative gross domestic product (GDP) 1 2 3 Falling retail sales, and contracting measures of income and manufacturing for an extended period of time 4 Unavoidable part of the business cycle 5
  9. Recession is a part of the normal economic cycle E x p a n s i o n Peak R e c e s s i o n D e p r e s s i o n Trough Recovery E x p a n s i o n Peak R e c e s s i o n RECESSION IS NOT A NEW BLACK!
  10. “If you can’t measure it, you can’t manage it.” Peter Drucker, management consultant, educator and author
  11. STANNA PÅ SAJTEN / DATA DRIVEN WAY OF WORK AND CRO Business tends to cut off the growth program? But what do you really cut off in this case? Marketing and growth Market shares ROI
  12. When you stop experimentation program you cut off DATA and Insights A/B/n-testing randomly assigns users to different variations of a page or website component. The experiment is performed on your live website on your real visitors, and they are not aware that they are part of an experiment. DATA DRIVEN WAY OF WORK AND CRO
  13. STANNA PÅ SAJTEN / DATA is POWER in high uncertainty times Data is your valuable resource and power in decision making. It allows to: • Predict further changes in users’ behavior • Tailored your strategy better and mitigate risks • React faster • Support creativity • Support decision making and eliminate guesswork • Evaluate result afterwards DATA DRIVEN WAY OF WORK AND CRO
  14. DATA DRIVEN WAY OF WORK AND CRO Users’ behavior is on the front line to change in recession context… But how can you understand what is this change about?
  15. DATA DRIVEN WAY OF WORK AND CRO DATA = POWER. And you should be as close as possible to your real users The old way We ask people what they think motivates them and build our services on that information The new way We conduct experiments to measure behavioural changes. That data informs us on how we should build our services
  16. “Conversion happens when your and your visitors goals meet” John Ekman, founder of Conversionista First law of conversion
  17. Why is it important to base website improvements on data?
  18. What is the one thing that all organizations have? Ideas DATA DRIVEN WAY OF WORK AND CRO
  19. And what is thought to be the best source of ideas? The Creative Genius DATA DRIVEN WAY OF WORK AND CRO
  20. So - this is your process Creativity Ideas H.I.P.P.O BIG launch DATA DRIVEN WAY OF WORK AND CRO
  21. What is the risks with this process? Not data-driven Unknown origin and what it’s supposed to solve “Hit or miss” Not a repeatable process DATA DRIVEN WAY OF WORK AND CRO
  22. This is “Hit or miss” Launch = +/-0 Time Value
  23. Some launches have positive effect, some negative = +/-0 Should this one have been launched? Time Value
  24. By optimizing, we can remove the negative launches Time Value
  25. = $ And focus our efforts on positive launches Time Value
  26. How to reach it?
  27. STANNA PÅ SAJTEN / 27 Optimization wheel: our way of working Data Behaviour analysis Hypotheses Tools & Research Prioritization Experiments DATA DRIVEN WAY OF WORK AND CRO
  28. Recession is not a new black! 28
  29. Recession is a part of the normal economic cycle E x p a n s i o n Peak R e c e s s i o n D e p r e s s i o n Trough Recovery E x p a n s i o n Peak R e c e s s i o n we are here should be ready time to act RECESSION IS NOT A NEW BLACK!
  30. Take that as a opportunity! - Recession is a perfect opportunity to build for the future Grow your business and strengthen it Focus on the long term Invest now, to “skim the cream” later Do what you are good at, just differently RECESSION IS NOT A NEW BLACK!
  31. Follow your users’ behavior 31
  32. FOLLOW YOUR USER’S BEHAVIOR Why it is important to hear your users? Align brand with customers’ values Loyalty to the brand Increase customer retention Decrease churn = $
  33. Loyal customers 9x more likely to convert then the first time ones Convert Convert 9x Adobe Digital Index report “The ROI from Marketing to Existing Online Customers” FOLLOW YOUR USER’S BEHAVIOR
  34. Getting existing customers back is more valuable and cost-effective than acquisition the new ones. A small increase in your retention rate by 5% might have a big impact on profitability, boosting it by + 25% +5% retention +25% profitability Harvard Business School “The Economics of E-Loyalty” = $ + FOLLOW YOUR USER’S BEHAVIOR
  35. C A S E CASE - KIWI Norwegian grocery chain Empathy towards the customers = unprecedented customer growth Twice a year – on 1 February and 1 July – prices are adjusted from the suppliers to the grocery chains. While its competitors raised their prices, Kiwi declined to do the same and prices reminded the same. The store chain had 600,000 more customers in the first week after the turn of the month. The market share of Kiwi in January increased by one percentage point from the same month the previous year. They now have 23.6 percent of the market. FOLLOW YOUR USER’S BEHAVIOR - CASE KIWI: Lavpriskjeden tjener godt på å hoppe bukk over prisøkningen 1. februar. Foto: Mattis Sandblad / VG article Kiwi: − Tidenes kundevekst (Kiwi: − The customer growth of the times) Line Fausko for VG, 17.02.2023
  36. Users’ behavior will change The question is to what extent and to which direction?
  37. Gain valuable insights and adjust your strategy accordingly STRATEGY build for the future Insights Data analytics A/B/n testing Qualitative data FOLLOW YOUR USER’S BEHAVIOR
  38. C A S E CASE - NorgesEnergi Change in users’ behavior before and after the price increase Before 2021 - Power was seen as a hygiene factor, and users did not think much about power consumption. If the invoice was too high, they would blame the company. After 2021 - "My page" became more important, and users became more conscious about power. They'd spend more time checking hourly prices, and consumption. Now they are more demanding on features to get control over daily prices, and costs. “I'm on the site every day after 1.30pm to plan when the washing machine, and dishwasher should run, and when the car should be charged.” “I would have liked to have a forecast and prediction for how the electricity prices will be, an opportunity to see what it might look like” “I have never used apps from electricity suppliers before.” “The most interesting thing about “My page” is checking the invoice and whether you have the right agreement.” FOLLOW YOUR USER’S BEHAVIOR - CASE
  39. C A S E CASE - Norwegian Full refund within 24 hours Issue: High drop off rate was detached on a funnel checkout step Goal: To motivate users to continue by highlighting benefit of cancellation within 24h close to the decision point Result: The variation is showing a significant uplift of ≈ 3% in terms of conversion rate Original Variation FOLLOW YOUR USER’S BEHAVIOR - CASE
  40. In the time of uncertainty data is your power, experiments -way to get insights Data = power = insight from your real customers Data Experiment FOLLOW YOUR USER’S BEHAVIOR
  41. “Don’t copy your competitors. They also have no idea what they are doing” Peep Laja - Founder CXL
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