[INSERT	IMG]             SOUTH	CORRIDOR               DEVELOPMENT	                   SUMMARY                              ...
NCG OVERVIEW•       Noell Consulting Group    •     Real estate consultant based in Atlanta    •     Conduct market analys...
OVERVIEW OF THE       SOUTH LINE• Corridor opened in  November 2007    • First corridor in five      corridor system• Incl...
SOUTH LINE CONTEXT• Using existing rail line    • Bringing people to the                                        CORE      ...
SOUTH LINE CONTEXT                         S                     S                    S                S            S     ...
CONTEXT—TIMING WAS TOUGH Mecklenburg Employment Growth   30,000   20,000   10,000        0   -10,000   -20,000   -30,000  ...
SOUTH LINE SUCCESS TO DATE• In spite of challenges,  TOD has been quite  strong• Completed Projects  • $341M in tax value ...
TALE OF THREE SEGMENTS• South End   • Carson         • East-West   • Bland          • New Bern• Mid-Corridor Stations   • ...
SOUTH END       SEGMENT• Completed Projects  • $324M in tax value    added     • 95% of corridor total  • 1,976 MF units  ...
SOUTH END SUCCESS• Leasing agents & Realtors   • transit access important for 30% -     40% of residents• South End rental...
MID-CORRIDOR• Completed Projects  • $1.76M in tax value    added     • 1% of corridor total  • 0 MF units     • 0% of corr...
SOUTHERN      STATIONS• Completed Projects  • $15.6M in tax value    added     • 5% of corridor total  • 192 MF units     ...
TRANSIT IMPORTANT FACTOR,       BUT NOT MOST CRITICAL• “Transit doesn’t make a bad location  good, it makes a good locatio...
CASE STUDY COMPARISONBland Street Station   Tyvola Station       S                             S
CASE STUDY COMPARISON                                           Bland                      TyvolaPredominant Land Use     ...
WHERE ARE WE HEADING?• Next wave of apartment  construction starting up   • 1,535 new units in next two to     three years...
WHERE ARE WE HEADING?• Central and Southern sections  likely to remain relatively quiet• City/CATS will need to identify  ...
IN CLOSING• Development has been strong given  timing, market struggles, and attributes of  corridor   • Residential has b...
[INSERT	IMG]             SOUTH	CORRIDOR               DEVELOPMENT	                   SUMMARY                              ...
OTHER FACTORS WEIGH             HEAVILY                                   Center        SouthernFactor           South End...
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South Corridor Development Summary

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Todd noell, South Corridor Development Summary

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South Corridor Development Summary

  1. 1. [INSERT IMG] SOUTH CORRIDOR DEVELOPMENT SUMMARY URBAN LAND INSTITUTE112 KROG STREET NE SUITE 14 | ATLANTA, GA 30307 CONTACT | 404.681.0006
  2. 2. NCG OVERVIEW• Noell Consulting Group • Real estate consultant based in Atlanta • Conduct market analyses and consumer research for both public sector and private sector clients • Conduct numerous studies along transit corridors and locations • Studied South Corridor since 2002 • Three other planned corridors • Conducted numerous TOD analyses in Washington, DC, Los Angeles, San Francisco, Atlanta, Raleigh & Charlotte
  3. 3. OVERVIEW OF THE SOUTH LINE• Corridor opened in November 2007 • First corridor in five corridor system• Includes 11 stations outside of Center City• Follows existing rail line to the south
  4. 4. SOUTH LINE CONTEXT• Using existing rail line • Bringing people to the CORE corridor, not the corridor to people• Corridor does not traverse any major employment cores outside of Center CORE City CORE• Higher incomes largely to the east• Crosses/accesses freeway only at the ends of corridor CORE
  5. 5. SOUTH LINE CONTEXT S S S S S S S S S S S
  6. 6. CONTEXT—TIMING WAS TOUGH Mecklenburg Employment Growth 30,000 20,000 10,000 0 -10,000 -20,000 -30,000 -40,000 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Mecklenburg Office Absorption2,500,0002,000,0001,500,0001,000,000 500,000 0 -500,000-1,000,000 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
  7. 7. SOUTH LINE SUCCESS TO DATE• In spite of challenges, TOD has been quite strong• Completed Projects • $341M in tax value added • 2,168 MF units • 9.2% capture • 308,400 SF office • 1.9% capture • 252,000 SF retail • 2.5% capture
  8. 8. TALE OF THREE SEGMENTS• South End • Carson • East-West • Bland • New Bern• Mid-Corridor Stations • Scaleybark • Tyvola • Woodlawn • Archdale• Southern Stations • Arrowood • I-485 • Sharon West
  9. 9. SOUTH END SEGMENT• Completed Projects • $324M in tax value added • 95% of corridor total • 1,976 MF units • 91% of corridor total • 308,400 SF office • 100% of corridor total • 190,300 SF retail • 76% of corridor total
  10. 10. SOUTH END SUCCESS• Leasing agents & Realtors • transit access important for 30% - 40% of residents• South End rental apartments • 12.5% premium over inner ring, non- rail projects • Achieving rents that allow more urban product ($1.52/SF)• Office & retail • Growing design district, restaurants/ nightlife, urban Lowe’s • Commercial generally not achieving premiums over other intown cores
  11. 11. MID-CORRIDOR• Completed Projects • $1.76M in tax value added • 1% of corridor total • 0 MF units • 0% of corridor total • 0 SF office • 0% of corridor total • 7,150 SF retail • 3% of corridor total
  12. 12. SOUTHERN STATIONS• Completed Projects • $15.6M in tax value added • 5% of corridor total • 192 MF units • 9% of corridor total • 0 SF office • 0% of corridor total • 54,600 SF retail • 22% of corridor total
  13. 13. TRANSIT IMPORTANT FACTOR, BUT NOT MOST CRITICAL• “Transit doesn’t make a bad location good, it makes a good location better” • Portland TriMet interview• Transit is a key part of creating convenience and lifestyle, but must have other lifestyle or selling propositions • Employment proximity • Affluence of neighborhoods • Create price alternative hsg needs • Walkability • Unique character
  14. 14. CASE STUDY COMPARISONBland Street Station Tyvola Station S S
  15. 15. CASE STUDY COMPARISON Bland TyvolaPredominant Land Use Mix of Loft Commercial, Mix of Strip Retail, Bus. Residential, some Ind. ParkShortest Walk to Exist Res, 2005 .19 miles .31 milesWalk Score 82 68Avg Area Home Sales Price $291,000 $166,000Distance to Major Office Core .8 Miles 2.8 MilesStation Format Surface ElevatedRental Apt Lease Rates $1.50 $1.00 - $1.10 Parking Supported Decked SurfaceSupportable Densities 60 – 100+/Acre 25 – 30/AcreRetail Rents $22 - $26/SF $12 - $16/SF
  16. 16. WHERE ARE WE HEADING?• Next wave of apartment construction starting up • 1,535 new units in next two to three years • 3,700 new residential units in roughly a decade • Projects in South End, extending south to New Bern Station• Developers very tuned into value of transit—emphasize Blue Line access as a key selling feature• Commercial still a tougher challenge, but housing creates more potential
  17. 17. WHERE ARE WE HEADING?• Central and Southern sections likely to remain relatively quiet• City/CATS will need to identify strategies & investment to create value • Parks & Plazas • Greenways • Institutional units & anchors • Use of financial tools• Lack of land control around stations an issue
  18. 18. IN CLOSING• Development has been strong given timing, market struggles, and attributes of corridor • Residential has been much stronger than commercial• Transit undoubtedly “elevating” locations where lifestyle proposition/ convenience already exist • 3,700 units in 10 years• Stations lacking that proposition a much tougher development scenario • Other investments/steps may be needed to facilitate development • Lack of CATS property makes this more challenging
  19. 19. [INSERT IMG] SOUTH CORRIDOR DEVELOPMENT SUMMARY URBAN LAND INSTITUTE112 KROG STREET NE SUITE 14 | ATLANTA, GA 30307 CONTACT | 404.681.0006
  20. 20. OTHER FACTORS WEIGH HEAVILY Center SouthernFactor South End Stations StationsHousing $325,000 $128,000 $71,000ValueWalkability 76 60 44ScoreDistance to 1.3 4.5 6.75Center CityCharacter Med. To High Low LowStation High—one More Moderate—Visibility parcel deep removed— somewhat from S. Blvd generally low removedFeasibility of Redev. Redev—not Mixed—someDevelopment Feasible feasible greenfield

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