Urbanism in the age of climate change

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Peter calthorpe, Urbanism in the age of climate change

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Urbanism in the age of climate change

  1. 1. China’s Development Challenge
  2. 2. USA Development Challenge
  3. 3. Transportation Mode By Country Auto Walk/Bike Transit100%90% 86%80%70%60% 65%50% 52% 48%40% 42% 37%30%20% 22%10% 12% 11% 10% 11% 03%00% United States France Sweden China 美国 法国 瑞典 中国
  4. 4. PortlandMetro 2040
  5. 5. Portland Metro Region VMT Daily VMT in National Average the Portland region declined 11% from 1996 to 2002, compared to a 6% increase nationally Portland RegionSource: State Highway Performance Monitoring System (HPMS); Federal Highway Administration, USDOT
  6. 6. Vision California 29% - 53%29% - - % Population change, 2006-2035 65% % Jobs change, 2006-2035 - 60% 71% 49% 61% 26% 60% 24% 86% 40% 102% 28% 47% 16% 31% 27% 41% 30% 40%
  7. 7. Scenarios and MetricsTrend Blueprints
  8. 8. California Housing Demand 2035 New Units Needed by 2035 Four Largest MPOs Only – SCAG, SANDAG, MTC, SACOG 2,500 Thousands 2,000 2,076 1,500 Preliminary 1,629 Do Not 1,000 1,325 Duplicate 500 00 -500 -1,650 -1,000 Multifamily Townhouse Small Lot Large LotSource: AC Nelson. The Shape of Metropolitan California in the 21st Century: Outlook to 2020 and 2035
  9. 9. Two California Futures Urban Compact Standard 5% 10% 25% 35% 70% 55%Business As Usual Growing Smart
  10. 10. Urban Infill - Oakland Uptown
  11. 11. Same
  12. 12. Compact Development - Stapleton
  13. 13. same
  14. 14. Standard Suburban
  15. 15. Housing Product Mix 2050 Total 25% Multifamily 33% 10% Attached 14% 20%65% Small Lot 23% 53% 45% Large Lot 30% Business As Usual Growing Smart
  16. 16. A1 v C1/C2 Land Consumed For New Growth to 2050 (mi2) More land than Delaware and Rhode Island combined 5,600 3,750 square miles saved 1,850 Business As Usual Growing Smart
  17. 17. A1 v C1/C2 Infrastructure Cost for New Growth Capital Costs for New Growth to 2050 $4,000 Saved per New Housing Unit : $710 Million/Year Dollars Billions $165.4 $32 Billion Saved* $133.4 Flickr: sl-engineer *Includes local roads, waste water and sanitary sewer, water supply, and parks & recreation Business As Usual Growing Smart
  18. 18. A1 v C1/C2 O&M Costs for New Growth Engineering & Public Works Costs for New Growth to 2050 $15 Billion Saved : $334 Million Per Year Dollars Billions $84.9 $15 Billion Saved $69.9 Flickr: watchlooksee *Includes City General Fund engineering and public works functions Business As Usual Growing Smart
  19. 19. A1 v C1/C2 Revenues from New Growth City Tax and Fee Revenue from New Growth to 2050 $2.7 Billion/Year in Additional Revenue to Cities Dollars Billions $120 Billion $864.5 More * $744.2 www.livinginplainfield.com *Includes City revenues from Vehicle License Fees, Property Tax, and Sales Tax Business As Usual Growing Smart
  20. 20. A1 v C2 Building Energy Cumulative to 2050 Would Power ALL Homes in California for 20 Years BTU Quadrillion 74 Quad Btu 15 Quadrillion BTUs Saved 58 Quad Btu Flickr: arbyreed Business As Usual Growing Smart
  21. 21. A1 v C2 Residential Water Use Cumulative to 2050 Water Savings Could Fill the San Francisco Bay 15 Times Acre Feet Millions 328 78 Million Acre Feet Saved 250 Business As Usual Growing Smart
  22. 22. A1 v C1/C2 Vehicle Miles Traveled (VMT) Miles Per Household in 2050 10,500 Fewer Miles Per Household 27,557 17,041 Flickr: trash-photography Business As Usual Growing Smart
  23. 23. A1 v C2 Auto Fuel Consumed Cumulative to 2050 Equivalent to more than 3 years of oil imports to the US Gallons Billions 750 277 Billion Gallons Saved 473 Business As Usual Growing Smart
  24. 24. A1 v C2 Annual Household Costs Per Household Annual in 2050 $10,500 Savings Per Household in 2050 Home Energy & $ 21,000 Water Auto Fuel + Ownership $ 10,500 Flickr: Diablo_Solar Business As Usual Growing Smart
  25. 25. A1 v C1/C2 Respiratory Health Costs Total Annual in 2035 Saves $1.66 billion annually by 2035 Business As Usual Growing Smart $1.66 bil less than BAU Flickr: Lance Page Based on Analysis of Vision CA Results by TIAX, LLC
  26. 26. A1 v C2 Greenhouse Gas Emissions Annual in 2050 Emissions offset by 90,000 square miles of trees in a year. A forest covering more than1/2 of California. Passenger Vehicles Buildings www.exuberance.com 117 191 MMT Reduced/Year 156 55 New York Times 28 Business As Growing Smart Usual
  27. 27. China’s Development Challenge
  28. 28. Mode Split by Neighborhood Type
  29. 29. 建设步行优先的邻里社区1 Develop neighborhoods that promote walking Chongqing, China
  30. 30. 优先发展自行车网络2 Prioritize bicycle networks Bike-prioritized Intersection
  31. 31. 创建密集的街道网络 3 Create dense networks of streets and pathsRecommended: Dense networks of streets and paths Discouraged: Arterial-dominant street network建议:创建密集的街道网络 不提倡:宽马路为主的干道网络
  32. 32. 支持高质量的4 公共交通服务 Support high-quality transit Guangzhou
  33. 33. 建设多功能混合的 邻里社区5 Zone for mixed-use neighborhoods
  34. 34. 将土地开发强度和6 公共交通承载力相匹配 Match density to transit capacityIn Curitiba, Brazil, high-rise development is focused In Guangzhou, density is focused around the BRTwithin 200 meters of mass transit lines. 在巴西的库 corridor. The system’s capacity matches commute-里提巴, 高层建筑距离大众公交线路不会超过200米。 hour transit demand. 在广州, 捷运走廊附近的密度较集中。系统能力和通勤时 间的运输需求相匹配。
  35. 35. 确保紧凑型发7 展, 提倡短程通勤 Create compact regions with short commutes Kunming Regional Growth 昆明区域发展
  36. 36. 8 规范停车和道路使用, 增加出行便利性 Increase mobility by regulating parking and road useCities may choose to charge tolls for use of Singapore’s Electronic Road Pricing system has cutoverloaded roads. congestion and raised money for public transit and城市可对拥堵路段征收过路费。 other uses. 新加坡的电子道路收费系统可减轻拥堵情况
  37. 37. Study AreaChongqing
  38. 38. Circulation and StreetsDesign Challenge设计挑战 Add Local Streets 添加辅路 Add Car-Free Streets 添加非机动车线路 Disperse Traffic on One-Way Couplets 通过单向二分路分散交通流 Superblocks 超大街区
  39. 39. YUELAI ECOLOGICAL CITY 悦来生态城
  40. 40. Current and Proposed Plan Comparison 现有规划与新版规划对比Yuelai : Superblock Yuelai : Urban Network悦来生态城:超大街区 悦来生态城:城市格网
  41. 41. Work with the Site’s Natural Features结合场地自然特色
  42. 42. 意大利 圣吉米纳诺 San Gimignano, Italy
  43. 43. Open Space开放空间Yuelai Eco-City Phase 1悦来生态城市
  44. 44. Create a Walkable and Bikeable Community营造适宜步行与自行车的社区
  45. 45. Create Walkable 营造适宜步行的Street Networks 街道网络Auto‐free Street步行街/慢行道
  46. 46. Create WalkableStreet Networks营造适宜步行的街道网络Hillside PedestrianSystem坡地步行系统
  47. 47. Ellipse Gateway椭圆门户广场Yuelai Eco-City Phase 1悦来生态城市
  48. 48. Yuelai Urban Network ComparisonYuelai : Superblock Yuelai : Urban Network悦来生态城:超大街区 悦来生态城:城市格网

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