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Master Planned Communities 2020

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Master Planned Communities 2020

  1. 1. Master Planned Communities 2020 Thursday, October 14 3:15 p.m. – 4:30 p.m. John Martin, Moderator Randall Lewis Perry Reader Melinda Masson
  2. 2. 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 1940 1942 1944 1946 1948 1950 1952 1954 1956 1958 1960 1962 1964 1966 1968 1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 US Housing Starts and Recessions: Total Housing Units Started TotalUnits,(000s) Recession Source: US Census Bureau Martin & Associates, LLC. US Involvement In World War II
  3. 3. ULI FALL 2010 RCLCO FORECAST TO 2020 2 Sources: RCLCO; Census; Moody’s Economy.Com
  4. 4. U.S. HOUSEHOLD GROWTH BY AGE CATEGORY 2010-2020 (10 YEARS) Demography is Destiny and the New Consumer To Recover and Succeed in the Future We Must Understand AGE GROUP 2,223,706 6,521,246 3,701,714 -2,268,604 718,786 1,162,381 -257,079 -3,000,000 -2,000,000 -1,000,000 0 1,000,000 2,000,000 3,000,000 4,000,000 5,000,000 6,000,000 7,000,000 75+ 65-74 55-64 45-54 35-44 25-34 15-24 Source: Updated 2010-2020 Household and New Home Demand Projections, September 2010 Joint Center for Housing Studies Harvard University Martin & Associates
  5. 5. Age Group 2010 Change 2010-2020 % Chg. from 2010 under 25 6,540,049 -257,079 -3.9% 25-34 19,429,803 1,162,381 6.0% 35-44 21,729,364 718,786 3.3% 45-54 24,599,659 -2,268,604 -9.2% 55-64 21,129,717 3,701,714 17.5% 65-74 13,141,901 6,521,246 49.6% 75+ 11,965,405 2,223,706 18.6% 118,535,898 11,802,150 81.9% U.S. HOUSEHOLD GROWTH BY AGE CATEGORY 2010-2020 (10 YEARS) Demography is Destiny and the New Consumer To Recover and Succeed in the Future We Must Understand Source: Updated 2010-2020 Household and New Home Demand Projections, September 2010 Joint Center for Housing Studies Harvard University Martin & Associates 2,223,706 6,521,246 3,701,714 -2,268,604 718,786 1,162,381 -257,079
  6. 6. U.S. HOUSEHOLD GROWTH BY TYPE 2010-2020 (10 YEARS) Demography is Destiny and the New Consumer To Recover and Succeed in the Future We Must Understand HOUSEHOLD TYPE 71,659 117,416 81,968 249,400 1,456,034 547,106 4,278,764 4,999,803 0 1,000,000 2,000,000 3,000,000 4,000,000 5,000,000 6,000,000 Partnered w/ children Single Parent w/ other Partnered w/o child. Single Parent alone Other Married w/ children Single Person Married w/o children Source: Updated 2010-2020 Household and New Home Demand Projections, September 2010 Joint Center for Housing Studies Harvard University Martin & Associates
  7. 7. U.S. HOUSEHOLD GROWTH BY TYPE 2010-2020 (10 YEARS) Household Type 2010 Change 2010- 2020 % Chg. from 2010 % of Total 2020 1. Married w/o children 34,441,134 4,999,803 14.5% 30% 2. Single Person 32,384,585 4,278,764 13.2% 28% 3. Married w/ children 25,272,364 547,106 2.2% 20% 4. Other 12,191,372 1,456,034 11.9% 10% 5. Single Parent alone 6,351,725 249,400 3.9% 5% 6. Partnered w/o child. 3,712,225 81,968 2.2% 3% 7. Single Parent w/ other 2,265,438 117,416 5.2% 2% 8. Partnered w/ children 1,917,055 71,659 3.7% 2% 118,535,898 11,802,150 10.0% 100% Demography is Destiny and the New Consumer To Recover and Succeed in the Future We Must Understand 71,659 117,416 81,968 249,400 1,456,034 547,106 4,278,764 4,999,803 0 1,000,000 2,000,000 3,000,000 4,000,000 5,000,000 6,000,000 Source: Updated 2010-2020 Household and New Home Demand Projections, September 2010 Joint Center for Housing Studies Harvard University Martin & Associates
  8. 8. U.S. HOUSEHOLD GROWTH BY RACE/ETHNICITY 2010-2020 (10 YEARS) Demography is Destiny and the New Consumer To Recover and Succeed in the Future We Must Understand 2,191,783 1,744,617 4,469,479 3,396,271 0 500,000 1,000,000 1,500,000 2,000,000 2,500,000 3,000,000 3,500,000 4,000,000 4,500,000 5,000,000 Black Asian Hispanic White Source: Updated 2010-2020 Household and New Home Demand Projections, September 2010 Joint Center for Housing Studies Harvard University Martin & Associates
  9. 9. Race/ Ethnicity 2010 Change 2010- 2010 % Chg. from 2010 % of Total 2020 % of Chg. 2010- 2020 White 83,574,504 3,396,271 4% 67% 29% Hispanic 13,727,794 4,469,479 33% 14% 38% Asian/Other 6,768,017 1,744,617 26% 6% 15% Black 14,465,582 2,191,783 15% 13% 18% 118,535,897 11,802,150 10% 100% 100% Demography is Destiny and the New Consumer To Recover and Succeed in the Future We Must Understand U.S. HOUSEHOLD GROWTH BY RACE/ETHNICITY 2010-2020 (10 YEARS) 2,191,783 1,744,617 4,469,479 3,396,271 0 1,000,000 2,000,000 3,000,000 4,000,000 5,000,000 Source: Updated 2010-2020 Household and New Home Demand Projections, September 2010 Joint Center for Housing Studies Harvard University Martin & Associates
  10. 10. Projected Household Growth 11,802,000 72% Projected Net Removal 3,279,000 20% Projected Total Vacant Unit Demand 1,361,000 8% Projected Total Demand for New Units 16,442,000 100% Annual Average 1,644,000 Components of New Home Demand 2010-2020 Source: Updated 2010-2020 Household and New Home Demand Projections, September 2010 Joint Center for Housing Studies Harvard University Martin & Associates
  11. 11. COMMUNITY CORNERSTONES Master Planned Communities 2020 Urban Land Institute – Fall 2010 Meeting October 14, 2010 Perry J. Reader President, Community Development
  12. 12. Celebration’s Original Cornerstones
  13. 13. Place  Vision  A new model for Community Development  Conceived as a small southeastern town with pre- 1940s architecture  Maintain high planning and architectural standards  Create icon buildings within the community Developers Execution  Use of world renowned architects and planners  Created pattern books  Extensive modeling prior to execution  Controls on 3rd party builders/developers
  14. 14. Place  Today  Reuse of icon buildings  Critical mass continues to be a challenge  Icon buildings still significant  Developer still controls master architecture  Future Trends  On-going re-use of buildings  Change of ownership  Re-branding of old businesses  New business models  Challenges to meet new standards  Structured parking  Technology upgrades  Green Building and sustainable Initiatives
  15. 15. Education  Vision  New educational platform  School building to support new learning strategies  Inspire curriculum changes in public education  Comprehensive K -12 walkable school  Developers Execution  Build school upfront as a community amenity  Provided operating resources above local level  Created resource partners from major business for school
  16. 16. Education  Today  Two schools (K-8 and High School)  K-8 true community school  High School regional and traditional  No longer subsidized by 3rd parties  Private educational choices  Life long learning (Stetson University)  Future Trends  Public school community interaction  Ongoing sharing of facilities  Continually striving for achievement  Fund raising  Private educational venues grow
  17. 17. Health  Vision  Integrate health care component into master plan  Secure Long-Term Commitment from Major Stakeholders  Become a world class leader for health care delivery  Developers Execution  Made long term deal with local provider  Gave protected rights to mitigate providers risk  Provided architectural design framework  Promoted health care partners as community stakeholders
  18. 18. Health  Today  Hospital continues to expand  Leader in new technology  Provides community fitness and wellness  Home based health care never worked.  Beacon for success of community  Future Trends  Health care stakeholders continue to invest in leading edge solutions  Land plan makes expansion efficient  Source of pride for community  Non-stakeholder Health services complementary, not destructive
  19. 19. Technology  Vision  Community features designed by panel of experts  Leverage Industry leaders to be Stakeholders for execution  Give incentives to businesses for participation  Developers Execution  Created Alliance partnerships with competitive advantage  Subsidized initial capital improvements for public facilities  Coordinated technology implementation and framework  Maintained rights to access  Owned & operated backbone infrastructure
  20. 20. Technology  Today  No organized community-wide effort  Local providers sold to national companies  Initial stakeholders no longer visible  Local needs better solved by www. based solutions  Future Trends  Original infrastructure is now unsuitable for future  Technology will grow as any other suburban location  Homes contain technology investment that does not add value My.name@celebration.fl.us vs. My.name@gmail.com
  21. 21. Community  Vision  Promote a socially interactive community  Leave a legacy  Inspire the civic framework for the future  Developers Execution  Served as a catalyst to create community organizations  Provided initial start-up funding for many civic & service groups  Proactively brought residents into community governance roles  Supplied educational resources to support community design and controls.  Guided media & public affairs
  22. 22. Community  Today  Stable and active community governance  Numerous civic and social organizations  Foundation providing on-going legacy  Developer’s on-going controls not viewed as impediment for community’s growth  Community activities and events self funded  No developer influenced media hype  Future Trends  Directed by resident population  Importance of project’s legacy aligned between residents and developer.  Developer still has major interest in non- residential land
  23. 23. Case Study: Cornerstones Cornerstone Vision Today Future
  24. 24. Celebration, Florida
  25. 25. Master Planned Communities 2020
  26. 26. • Buyer confidence at all-time low • People are experiencing FUD • “Home” not defined by ownership
  27. 27. Strongest communities offer • Intact soft-programming • Safety • Networking • “Low cost” social environments
  28. 28. Flexible legal documents • Foreclosures • Self-help programs • Grant money • Green conversion • Social gatherings
  29. 29. “Hope is not a strategy.” Tony Trella, President, Meranth Company, Inc.
  30. 30. Readiness Planning • Lifestyle needs and desires • Local agencies/planners at the table • World awareness • Transition of amenities
  31. 31. Readiness Planning • Niche markets identified • Social media influencers • Are you open after 8:00 p.m.? • Private financing
  32. 32. Success will be defined again by out-of-the-box thinking.
  33. 33. Uniquely designed village amenities that are connected with other villages utilizing technology
  34. 34. Smaller “niche” villages will meet unique demographic profile needs, and urban in lifestyle.
  35. 35. Technology will create connection • Defines the master community • Creates a sustainable financial model
  36. 36. Community-based care will define and drive • Housing configuration • Design • Amenity planning • Soft-programming
  37. 37. Community Engagement • Community-based care design • Flexible governance models • Sustainable, strong soft-programming • Supporting financial management model • New model ensures engagement
  38. 38. Green will be Defined • Environmental management • Energy management • Government directives • Accredited Professionals (AP) • Renewable energy certificates
  39. 39. Change comes slowly ….then…. happens quickly!

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