VIET NAM BOND FUND (VFMVFB) Mar 2013September 2008
CONTENT 1. VIETFUND MANAGEMENT (VFM) 2. VIETNAM MACRO OVERVIEW 3.FIXED INCOME INVESTMENT OPPORTUNITY 4. VIETNAM BOND FUND (VFMVFB) 5. MANAGEMENT TEAM 6. TRADING GUIDELINE 7. CONTACTSeptember 2008
1. VFM INTRODUCTION “We are trusted and preferred by local and international investors.” September 2008
VIETFUND MANAGEMENT (VFM) VFM was established in July 2003, initially as a joint-venture company of the two leading financial institutions which are Dragon Capital – a British intergrated invesement firm centred around the emerging financial markets of Vietnam and Sacombank – one of the largest commercial banks in Vietnam. Since January 2009, the company has conversed to its legal status as Vietnam Investment Fund Management Joint Stock Company. With the initial raised capital of VND300 billion for VF1 in 2004, the total assets under VFM’s management at present has reached nearly USD200 millions which are from 9 years of the capital raising and establishment of new funds process. VFM continuously plans to mobilize new capitals through new financial products and services applying new updated legal framework. For more detail, please see the VFM’s pitch book
VIETNAM MACRO OVERVIEW 2012 Targets Stabilized Economy: No. Indicators Data 2013 1 GDP Growth 5,03% 5.5% After a period of macro economy unstability in 2 CPI(YoY) 6,81% 7%-8% 2010-2011, thanks to the serious adjustment in 3 Export Growth (YoY) 18,3% 10% monetary policy, Vietnam macro economy is more 4 Trade Surplus (% of export) 0,25% -8% stable in 2012. The agreesive moves of Government 5 Total Social Investment (% GDP) 34% 29.5% resulted in possitive condition of the economy. 6 FDI (USD Bil) 12,7 13-14 Macro economy has been stablized in 2H 2012. 7 FDI Disbursement (USD Bil) 10,5 11,5-12 Economy improvement has been noted since Q4 2012 8 Reserve(USD Bil) 24 30 with better indicators of reserver, export, trade 9 Retail Growth (Adjusted for inflation) (YoY) 6% 6.5%-7% balance, balance of payment, FDI, inflation control... 10 Industrial Production Growth (YoY) 4,8% n/a Vietnam enterred a deleveraging period for the 11 Credit Growth (Vs 31 December of prior year) 8,91% 12% whole economy in 2012. This will continue in 2013. 12 M2 Growth (Vs 31 December of prior year) 22,4% 14%-16% Slower Growth for a Stable Economy In 2013, the Government has prioritized inflation control and stablizing economy the first targets. In its 2013 plan, the Goverment selects a low growth option to enhance its capability to control the inflation. With the selection, the Goverment policies will help to improve performance of economy and looking foward to a long term growth. The moderate targeted GDP growth of 5.9% in 2013 is suitable to undergoing deleveraging. Source: GSO, SBV, VFM
VIETNAM MACRO OVERVIEW (cont.) Inflation CPI has been slowed down significantly in early months of 2012 and YoY CPI reached to a single digit since May 2012 . CPI for whole 2012 is only 6.81%. Inflation is targeted to be controlled under 6.8% in 2013. In the first months of 2013, introduced policies by Government are to control inflation. Interest rate Interest rates has been reduced significantly in 2012 and be stable in 4Q 2012. The rate is expected to hit the bottom in 2H 2013 and gradually increase affter a period of credit crunch. Export & Trade Surplus Trade surplus is USD400 million in 2012. Export growth is 18.3% and maintain in high level. The export growth surpassed other large export countries such as China, India, Thailan and Indonesia... and can be considerred as a plus in a situation of world economy slow down. Trade surplus is expected in 2013 together with positive balance of payment. Source: VFM, Dragon Capital
VIETNAM MACRO OVERVIEW (cont.) Reserve Reserved increased significantly in 2012 and equals to more than 12 weeks of import by December. In the first 2 months of 2013, reserve increased by USD 8 billion and reached to over USD 30 billion, equals to 14-16 weeks of import. Foreign Exchange Rate Exchange rate between VND and USD has been maintained stable for a long period since early 2012. The gap between official and black market exchange rates for VND/USD has virtually disappeared since February 2012. Thanks to good export growth, significant reduction of trade deficit and increasing of reserve, the VND/USD exchange rate is expected to be stable in 2013. Concensus forecasts show that the exchange rate will move within a range of 3% in 2013. In Mar 2013, State Bank of Vietnam sold USD to market in order to keep VND-USD exchange rate stable. Source: SBV, Dragon Capital
VIETNAM MACRO OVERVIEW (cont.) Deleveraging the Economy The deleveraging period started in early 2011 help to purify the economy. The loan to deposit ratio of banking system is now 95% in comparison to 106% in 2011. Liquidity of banking system improves significantlly considering the signals of lower interbank rates. One month interbank rate at the current is 3% to 7%. Non performing loans of banks have been identified and a solution for NPL may be reached in 1Q 2013. The establishement of Vietnam Asset Management Company 2500 000 tons trn VND 140 (VAMC) will be a push to NPL problem 1986 Economic Reform 1999 Economic Reform 2011 Economic Reform Focusing on Agriculture Enterprise Law SOEs, Financial Sector 120 2000 100 Potential of a New Development Cycle 1500 Get over the seen obstacles, Vietnam economy is Barely have enough food to 80 heading to a new development cycle in medium term. 1000 avoid famine Private Sector 60 The Vietnam ecomony is in the phase of slow growth Industrial ??? Rice Export for deleveraging. Vietnam economy is expected to come 500 (LHS) Production 40 to a new development cycle in 2014. Historical data shows large improvements of Vietnam economy after 0 20 restructurings are observed since 1986. 1982 1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015 Source: Dragon Capital
3.FIXED INCOME INVESTMENT OPPORTUNITYSeptember 2008
COMPARATIVE ADVANTAGES a) Comparative advantages: - Fixed income instruments generally should be the defensive parts for a diversified investment portfolio. - Fixed income instruments in Vietnam will remain attractive for the next few years for investors who desire relatively stable and decent returns. Equity Property Fixed income Gold/ FX/ Deposit Advantages -Liquidity -Big investment. -Liquidity (not -Liquidity -Flexible amount and -High return. immediately but doable -Flexible but not too timing -Long run investment in 1-2 weeks) big amount -High return. -Safe -Price defensive -Fast earnings. -Low lost instruments Weakness -High volatility, high -Liquidity -Big investment (solve -Storing problem risk. -Big loss in crisis by investing in fund) -Just work in special -Fast lost -Low return shocks, low carry. -Information driven Example (source: Dragon capital) Equity Property Fixed income FX Gold Deposit DC Government (port: o/n, Vn-index (estimation) bond index (estimation) (estimation) 1m,3m,6m,12m) 20-Jul-2011 to 142% 2008 and Hanoi: +35-55% Mar-08 to +20% 20-Aug-2011 +24% July-08 to +15.6%/Jul-06 to Mar-07 (8m) (282%pa.) 2009 HCMC: +25-30% 2008 -3% Jun-08 (3m) (105%pa.) (1m) (650%pa.) July-09 12m 22-Aug-2011 to -58% Hanoi: -30-50% Jun-08 to -10% 26-Sep-2011 -12% Jun-09 to +6.1%/Jan-07 to May-08 (8m) (-80%pa.) 2012 HCMC: -20-30% 2012 +18.5% Jul-08 (1m) (-75%pa.) (1m) (-74%pa.) Jun-10 12m 5yr return: 5yr return: 5yr return: 3.5yr return: 5yr return:5yr return: Feb-08 to -39.5% Jan-08 to Dec-07 to +61% Dec-07 to +30% Dec-07 to Dec- +102% Dec-07 toFeb-13 (-9.4%pa.) Jan-13 ~0%pa. Dec-12 (+9.9%pa.) Dec-12 (+5%pa.) 12 (22%pa.) Dec-12 +9.7% pa.
INVESTOR’S TASTES How can Fixed income investment match different investors’ tastes: Advantages Products Bankers -Returns: Higher carry compared to cash. -Government bonds -Credit : Government bonds are safe and not impact -Government guaranteed bonds. liquidity ratios. -Banks’ notes/interbank deposit -Liquidity: Can use as collaterals in OMO to get -Corporate bonds (but be counted as liquidity. More liquid than other investment asset. loans) -Derivatives; fund unit (FI) Insurers/ -Credit risk: Diversified fixed income portfolio is -Government bonds other safer than other investment instruments, even -Government guaranteed bonds. institutions banks’ deposit. -Banks’ notes/ deposit -Liquidity: higher than property, private equity. -Corporate bonds and commercial -Allocation issue: possible for storing big value. notes. -Derivatives; fund unit (FI) Individuals -More stable return and limited loss. -Banks’ deposits. -Safer than equity and property. Well regulated by -Fund units (FI) law.
BOND MARKET OVERVIEWb) The market Basis: BOND MARKET GROWTH ( 2001-2012) - Size: more than VND 500trillion (or USD 25 20% Oustanding bonds USD bn 16.8% 25bn), around 17%GDP. 17.3% 18% Outstanding bonds/GDP (RHS) 15.5% - Average daily trading volume: VND 400- 20 14.6% 16% 14.8% 1000bn (USD 20-50m) 14% 13.8% 15 12% - Institutional, professional investor base. 8.7% 10% - Centralized electronic platform in Hanoi 10 8% Stock Exchange. 5.2% 6% - Size of government is enlarged, easier to 5 3.5% 4% trade and create benchmark bonds. 2.3% 0.6%0.8% 2% USD - Primary dealer system has been being - billion 0% established. 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 Market’s products: Source: Dragon Capital - Straight bonds: • Government bonds 59% - Banks’ notes or corporate commercial notes (<1year). • Governmentguaranteed bonds 25% - Equity linked-notes: Convertible bonds, bonds with (VDB, VBS, VEC) warrants, exchangeable bonds. • Municipal bonds: 2% - Derivatives: FX swap has been used for hedging. Futures and options are not officially traded but are • Corporate bonds: 14% now discussed by SSC.
BOND MARKET OVERVIEW (cont.) Market status BOND MARKET BREAKDOWN- 90% of government bonds are less than 5 (as end of 2012) years and average life is 2.7 years. Municipal Corporate- 2 and 3 years have more favour as key buyers 2% 14% are banks with short-term finance.- Longer maturities beyond 5 years are primarily bought by life-insurance companies on buy- and-hold basis. Government Government bond- Corporate bonds are rarely traded. 59% guaranteed bond 25% Challenges: MATURITY PROFILE OF VND GOVERNMENT BOND - Big trading size: 50-100bn/normal trade (20- (updated Dec-2012) 30bn is doable) 4.0 - Very binary market based on narrow investor 3.0 base. - Affected directly by monetary policy and 2.0 macro condition. - There are spread btw Screen rates and 1.0 trading rates. 0.0 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 Source: Dragon Capital
WHY NOWMacro conditions: more stabilized 35% Inflation risk has reduced. 30% 1yr Gov Inflation (yoy) 25% FX change (yoy) FX/gold markets are regulated in narrow band. 20% 15% Restructuring has been processed in banking system and SOE. 10% Economicgrowth based more on capacity 5% than monetary eases. 0% -5%Interest rate / Yields: Sep-08 Sep-09 Oct-10 Nov-11 Nov-12 The normal range of the yields is 8 to 12.5% with quite long cycles. 5 yrs Screen rates vs Primary market The curve has backed to normal shape. 13% VGB yields were at 8.2-9.8% for 1 to 10yrs as 12% end of 2012. In Mar-2013, it’s around 7.6- 9.5%. Comparatively higher than other Asian Bloomberg rate 11% countries. Possible for foreign investors do Primary rate carry trade in short-term bonds. 10% Good outstanding corporate bonds are now 9% traded at 350-450 bps spread to government. Feb-11 May-11 Aug-11 Nov-11 Feb-12 May-12 Aug-12 Secondary market: more transactions and big traded volume. Daily transactions reached 2 Source: Dragon Capital trillion in Mar-2013.
MARKET MOVEMENTS NEED TO SCREEN - The shape of VGB yield curve is changing time to time. - The spread among different tenors reflect market’s risk attitude and psychology. - Corporate bonds is trading at 350-600bps spread over government . These spread used to be at 150- 300bps. In a fund with 30% corporate bonds, this will provide an additional return of approximately 1%. - Equity market in some period can provide attractive equity linked notes. Understanding and well following it help to find out trading / hedging/ arbitraging/ switching opportunities. VGB YIELD CURVES Spread btw different tenors14% 14%12% 12%10% 10%8% 8% 5year VGB 28-Dec-12 30-Dec-11 31-Dec-10 1year VGB 31-Dec-08 29-Dec-066% 6% 1 yr 2 yr 3 yr 5 yr 7 yr 10 yr 15 yr Dec-08 Dec-09 Dec-10 Jan-12 Jan-13 Source: Bloomberg
VDEF TRACK RECORD Vietnam Debt Fund SPC (VDeF) - Managed by Dragon Capital Debt Management - Created in Dec -2007. Listed on Irish Stock Exchange. Cayman Islands incorporated. - Dedicated fund for Vietnamese debt. - Monthly custodian valuations: Custodian is Standard Chartered Bank. However, internal reports can be produced at any time. - Segregated A and B portfolios targeting different risk levels. Class A-shares primarily for Government. Class B-shares broader mandate.VDeF performance: VND comparable return since inception- As end of Feb-2013, since inception (Dec 2007): 150% VDeF B Gross VDeF B Net• In VND, A-share up 65% and B-shares up 107% 120% VDeF A Gross VDeF A Net• In USD, A-share up 26% and B-share up 59%. 90% DC Vietnam Liquid Bond Index- As a foreign fund, VDeF has to pay coupon/ 60% transaction tax and high expenses (Costs > 2.5% pa) and not allowed to enter deposit in 30% Vietnam 0%- VDeF compares itself with VGB 1, 2 and 5 year indices and the DC Liquid Bond Index. -30% Dec-07 Oct-08 Aug-09 Jun-10 Apr-11 Feb-12 Jan-13- DC Government bond index: weights proportional to government debt outstanding. Source: Dragon Capital
VDEF TRACK RECORD (cont.)- This graph, which doesn’t make any prediction of future returns, suggests that it is possible to benefit from capital gains from active trading strategy and corporate bonds investment comparing to a pure investment on short-term government risk. 1-year VGB yoy returns compared with VDeF Gross yoy return (since Dec 2008) Amount weighted VDeF A and VDeF B 35% 1 yr Generic Vietnam Government bond 25% 15% 5% Sep-08 Jul-09 May-10 Feb-11 Dec-11 Oct-12 Source: Dragon Capital
SUMMARY OF ISSUING PLAN FOR THE INITIAL PUBLIC OFFERING OF VFMVFB• Fund name : Vietnam Bond Fund (VFMVFB)• Fund type : Open ended fund• Type of investor : Domestic and foreign individuals, institutions• Term of fund : Unlimited• Minimum capital mobilization : 50bio VND for the IPO• Par value : 10.000 dong/fund unit• Issuing price : 10.100 dong/fund unit• Minimum subscription : 20 mio dong• Fund Manager : Vietfund Management (VFM)• Technical advisor : Dragon Capital Debt Management Limited (DCDM)
SERVICE PROVIDER & DISTRIBUTORS• Transfer Agency : Deutsche Bank AG, Hochiminh Branch.• Custody/Supervision/ FA : Deutsche Bank AG, Hochiminh Branch.• Auditor : PWC, or KPMG or E&Y• Distributors : VietFund Management Address: 17th Floor, MeLinh Point Tower, HCMC, Vietnam Tel: (84.8) 3825 1488 Fax: (84.8) 3825 1489 Ho Chi Minh Securities Corporation– HSC Head office in Ho Chi Minh City Address: 5-6 Floor, A&B Tower, 76 Le Lai, Ben Thanh Ward, Dist 1, HCM Tel: (08) 3823 3299 Fax: (08) 3823 3301 Hanoi Branch Office Address: 4-5 Floor , 66A Tower, Tran Hung Dao St., Dist Hoan Kiem, Ha Noi Tel: (04) 3922 4693 Fax: (04) 3933 4822
TRADING TIMELINE & FEE• Fund raising for the IPO : From 25 Mar 2013 To 23 Apr 2013.• First transaction : End of May 2013 (est.)• Unit transaction interval : Bi-weekly• Trading day (T-day) : Second Friday and the fourth Friday of the month• Order placing time : Till 10:30am on T-1 day• Valuation period : Weekly• Redemption cut off : Limited at 10% NAV.• Subscription fee : 1% of subscription amount• Redemption fee : 0.5% - 2% of redemption price (depends on unit holding period)• Management fee : 0.9% NAV per year
INVESTMENT OBJECTIVE/ STRATEGY &ASSET ALLOCATIONInvestment Objective Investment Strategy Asset allocationTo achieve a profit from fixed Active management based on Mainly on Governmentincome investment: fundamental analysis of macro bond. conditions, as well asVietnamese government bond quantitative models, statistic or Bond portfolio structureGovernment guaranteed corporate analysis in making shall be maintained tobonds decision ensure the portfolio’sMunicipal bonds duration not over 8 years.Corporate bonds For Corporate bonds, theCommercial notes; and analysis shall base on at leastMoney market instruments. one of credit rating models that are developed by VFM and fund’s consultant - DCDM.
MANAGEMENT TEAM Investment Team Technical Advisory Team(*) • Tran Le Minh • Dan Svensson VFB Manager cum Economist Director and VDeF Manager Master in Financial Management Graduate degrees in Sciences/Economics/Finance • Hoa Le Thi Senior analyst, performance and risk MSc in actuarial sciences • Hong Nguyen Thi Tuyet Senior analyst, credit research and analysis MSc in actuarial sciences • Tuan Le Anh Head of research and Chief economist PhD Economics • Tuan Vo Nguyen Khoa Senior economist BSc computer sciences • Khang Diep Quoc Senior officer, execution MSc banking(*) Technical advisory team is currently managing VDeF A&B
ISSUING PROCESS FLOW FOR IPO INVESTOR How to BUY Research the Open account Place Subscription Transfer the Research the fund offering Docs fund offering trading for the order subscription money Trading documents open-ended fund During the raising During the raising Approach to Distributor confirmation and waiting for certificates fund period fund period Open A/C trading for fund & placefund certificates Subscription order in the account Transfer subscription money to DISTRIBUTION AGENTS Supervising bank, the details is: Beneficiary: QUY DAU TU TRAI Website PHIEU VIET NAM A/C No.: 1020155-05-5 Securities www.vinafund.com VFM office companies Bank name: Deutsche Bank HCMC Branch Content: [Investor’s full name] Consolidate all the trading [ID number/Business orders send to the Transfer License] [ Fund name] Agency at [Distributor name] TRANSFER AGENCY Trading confirmation Allotment trading units After closing Fund
PROCESS FLOW FOR NEXT SUBSEQUENT TRADING CYCLES INVESTOR Transfer subscription How to trading the fund money SUBCRIPTION Before 10:30am ,T-1 Research the fund offering Docs Trading Approach to Distributorconfirmation Research fund Place orders Check for fund Place Subscription order before T+3 offering Before 10:30am ,T-1 unit outstanding documents balance 10:30am T-1 REDEMPTION/Before 10:30am SWITCHING Transfer subscription amount to ,T-1 Supervising bank (for buying fund unit) DISTRIBUTORS Trading confirmation in T+3 Redemption payment shall be to investors’ bank A/C within 5 days (T+5) Consolidate all the trading orders send to the Transfer Agency TRANSFER AGENCY Allotment trading units T+3