Few facts about 2009 Elections
…fall of the 3rd front‟s Red flag
...rejection of one-man small parties
…rejection of small family „owned‟ parties
…a vote for national parties; a vote for stability
Tamil Nadu + Puducherry
• Left loss = 2
• Small parties loss = 9
• Cong losses two seats in
TN, Chidambaram wins
by a whisker but gains
Puducherry. Net gain = 1
• AIADMK gain = 9
• DMK gain = 2
• Oth gain = 1
Observation: Voter mood away from 3rd front and smaller state parties
• Left loss = 11
• Ind loss = 1
• JDS loss = 1
• IFDP loss = 1
• Cong gain = 13
• Muslim League gain = 1
Observation: Voter mood away from 3rd front and favouring Congress.
• TRS loss = 3
• Left loss = 2
• Cong gain = 4
• TDP gain = 1
Muslimeen = Retains 1
seat (No loss No gain)
Observation: Voter mood away from Left. TRS rejected. Benefit to Cong = 4
• Loss to Left = 20
• Cong party = No loss no
• Cong coalition with
Trinamool gain = 18
• Ind gain = 1
• BJP gain = 1
Observation: Rejection of the Left. Benefit to anti-Left forces Trinamool & BJP
• Small one person parties that had
held the last government ransom
with their single digit MPs have
• Paswan‟s LJP loss = 4 seats
LJP gets 0 seats
• Lalu‟s RJD loss = 18 seats
• Strong vote for BJP-JD(U) good
Observation: Rejection of one person or one family parties
• BJP = no gain no loss in UP
(retains same number of seats)
• BSP gain = 1 seat
• Cong gain = 12 seat
• SP loss = 12 seats
• Ajit Singh‟s RLD gain = 2 seats
(due to alliance with BJP)
• Small one man parties like
SJP(R) & NLP have dissolved /
• Muslim vote moving away from
SP & towards Cong
Observation: Rejection of small parties and voter swing towards main parties
3rd front rejected
• Old 3rd front loss = 38 seats
• New 3rd front loss = 22 seats
• Only AIADMK & BJD have benefited but
they were not pre-poll 3rd front.
Observation: Rejection of the Left. Benefit to anti-
Collapse of the 3rd front‟s Red flag
• Left = CPM + CPI + FB + RSP
• LEFT in 2004 = 59
• LEFT in 2009 = 21
• Loss to LEFT= 38 seats
Observation: LEFT has been rejected
UPA & NDA
• Parties keep jumping from one group to the
other. Therefore evaluating the positions from
• UPA gain = 83 seats
• NDA loss = 14 seats
• BJP loss = 22 seats
• NDA performance not as bad as is being
portrayed. Net loss only 14 seats.
• NDA lost its alliance partners like BJD.
• It was the BJP‟s loss in Rajasthan, Punjab,
Delhi & MP that defeated the NDA.
Congress‟ strategic communalism?
• Is Congress practicing strategic communalism?
• “Delhi-Punjab-Haryana-Jammu” Sikh question
How to turn tables on 1984 anti-Sikh riots‟ tag?
• Rahul Gandhi quoted as saying in Punjab that:
Congress will make a Sikh Prime Minister
• Is this not canvassing on religious grounds?
• Has BJP ever said, “It wants a Hindu Prime Minister”?
• Delhi-Haryana-Punjab-JK = 36 seats
• Cong gets = 26 seats (gain of 7 seats)
• Shoe-throwing by a Sikh journalist.
Released within 30 minutes of arrest with no charges
• Sikh journalist while being arrested says to news channels,
“I am not against the Congress party”
• Congress party cuts tickets of Tytler & Sajjan Kumar
Metro cities question
• Mumbai & Delhi go with
• Ahmedabad & Bangalore go
• Chennai shared between DMK
• Kolkatta 3rd front rejected,
• Cong + Allies gain in
Mumbai & Delhi = 3 seats
•3rd front rejected by voters. Strong anti-LEFT sentiment.
•Prakash Karat‟s implementation of JNU ideology rejected.
•BJP‟s absence in South & no allies in East helps Congress + Allies emerge as natural
beneficiaries of anti-3rd front vote.
•BJP-SS loss in Maharashtra due to MNS presence
•BJP gains in Gujarat & Karnataka due to: Hindutva agenda + Honest leadership image +
Development focus of the leaders.
•Small one man / family parties rejected. Lalu (RJD in Bihar), Ramdas Athavle (RPI-A in
Maharashtra), Paswan (LJP in Bihar), Ramadoss (PMK in TN) & Vaiko (MDMK in TN).
•Congress‟ strategic communalism to get Sikh votes (Delhi-Haryana-Punjab-JK).
•What has India gained? Small one-man parties that had held since the past 10 years both
the NDA & UPA ransom have been rejected by the people.
•BJP loses out due to Rajasthan, Punjab, Delhi, MP
Metro cities: Mumbai & Delhi go to Congress, while Ahmedabad & Bangalore go to BJP)
•People of India have voted for national parties.
Thank you for your time