Few facts about 2009 Elections
                          …fall of the 3rd front‟s Red flag
                   ...rejection...
Tamil Nadu + Puducherry
                                         • Left loss = 2
                                         ...
Kerala
                                      •   Left loss = 11
                                      •   Ind loss = 1
   ...
Andhra Pradesh
                                       • TRS loss = 3
                                       • Left loss = ...
West Bengal
                                           • Loss to Left = 20

                                           • C...
Bihar
                                        • Small one person parties that had
                                        ...
Uttar Pradesh
                                         • BJP = no gain no loss in UP
                                     ...
3rd front rejected
    • Old 3rd front loss = 38 seats

    • New 3rd front loss = 22 seats

    • Only AIADMK & BJD have ...
Collapse of the 3rd front‟s Red flag
                                      •   Left = CPM + CPI + FB + RSP
               ...
UPA & NDA
 •   Parties keep jumping from one group to the
     other. Therefore evaluating the positions from
     present...
Congress‟ strategic communalism?
         •   Is Congress practicing strategic communalism?

         •   “Delhi-Punjab-Ha...
Metro cities question
              •   Mumbai & Delhi go with
                  Congress

              •   Ahmedabad & B...
Conclusion
•3rd front rejected by voters. Strong anti-LEFT sentiment.
•Prakash Karat‟s implementation of JNU ideology reje...
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Some Facts About 2009 Elections

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Some Facts About 2009 Elections

  1. 1. Few facts about 2009 Elections …fall of the 3rd front‟s Red flag ...rejection of one-man small parties …rejection of small family „owned‟ parties …a vote for national parties; a vote for stability
  2. 2. Tamil Nadu + Puducherry • Left loss = 2 • Small parties loss = 9 • Cong losses two seats in TN, Chidambaram wins by a whisker but gains Puducherry. Net gain = 1 • AIADMK gain = 9 • DMK gain = 2 • Oth gain = 1 Observation: Voter mood away from 3rd front and smaller state parties
  3. 3. Kerala • Left loss = 11 • Ind loss = 1 • JDS loss = 1 • IFDP loss = 1 • Cong gain = 13 • Muslim League gain = 1 Observation: Voter mood away from 3rd front and favouring Congress.
  4. 4. Andhra Pradesh • TRS loss = 3 • Left loss = 2 • Cong gain = 4 • TDP gain = 1 • Majlis-e-Itehadul- Muslimeen = Retains 1 seat (No loss No gain) Observation: Voter mood away from Left. TRS rejected. Benefit to Cong = 4
  5. 5. West Bengal • Loss to Left = 20 • Cong party = No loss no gain • Cong coalition with Trinamool gain = 18 • Ind gain = 1 • BJP gain = 1 Observation: Rejection of the Left. Benefit to anti-Left forces Trinamool & BJP
  6. 6. Bihar • Small one person parties that had held the last government ransom with their single digit MPs have been rejected. • Paswan‟s LJP loss = 4 seats LJP gets 0 seats • Lalu‟s RJD loss = 18 seats • Strong vote for BJP-JD(U) good development work Observation: Rejection of one person or one family parties
  7. 7. Uttar Pradesh • BJP = no gain no loss in UP (retains same number of seats) • BSP gain = 1 seat • Cong gain = 12 seat • SP loss = 12 seats • Ajit Singh‟s RLD gain = 2 seats (due to alliance with BJP) • Small one man parties like SJP(R) & NLP have dissolved / merged. • Muslim vote moving away from SP & towards Cong Observation: Rejection of small parties and voter swing towards main parties
  8. 8. 3rd front rejected • Old 3rd front loss = 38 seats • New 3rd front loss = 22 seats • Only AIADMK & BJD have benefited but they were not pre-poll 3rd front. Observation: Rejection of the Left. Benefit to anti- Left forces.
  9. 9. Collapse of the 3rd front‟s Red flag • Left = CPM + CPI + FB + RSP • LEFT in 2004 = 59 • LEFT in 2009 = 21 • Loss to LEFT= 38 seats Observation: LEFT has been rejected
  10. 10. UPA & NDA • Parties keep jumping from one group to the other. Therefore evaluating the positions from present status. • UPA gain = 83 seats • NDA loss = 14 seats • BJP loss = 22 seats • NDA performance not as bad as is being portrayed. Net loss only 14 seats. • NDA lost its alliance partners like BJD. • It was the BJP‟s loss in Rajasthan, Punjab, Delhi & MP that defeated the NDA.
  11. 11. Congress‟ strategic communalism? • Is Congress practicing strategic communalism? • “Delhi-Punjab-Haryana-Jammu” Sikh question How to turn tables on 1984 anti-Sikh riots‟ tag? • Rahul Gandhi quoted as saying in Punjab that: Congress will make a Sikh Prime Minister • Is this not canvassing on religious grounds? • Has BJP ever said, “It wants a Hindu Prime Minister”? • Delhi-Haryana-Punjab-JK = 36 seats • Cong gets = 26 seats (gain of 7 seats) • Shoe-throwing by a Sikh journalist. Released within 30 minutes of arrest with no charges • Sikh journalist while being arrested says to news channels, “I am not against the Congress party” • Congress party cuts tickets of Tytler & Sajjan Kumar
  12. 12. Metro cities question • Mumbai & Delhi go with Congress • Ahmedabad & Bangalore go with BJP • Chennai shared between DMK & AIADMK • Kolkatta 3rd front rejected, Trinamool sweeps. • Cong + Allies gain in Mumbai & Delhi = 3 seats
  13. 13. Conclusion •3rd front rejected by voters. Strong anti-LEFT sentiment. •Prakash Karat‟s implementation of JNU ideology rejected. •BJP‟s absence in South & no allies in East helps Congress + Allies emerge as natural beneficiaries of anti-3rd front vote. •BJP-SS loss in Maharashtra due to MNS presence •BJP gains in Gujarat & Karnataka due to: Hindutva agenda + Honest leadership image + Development focus of the leaders. •Small one man / family parties rejected. Lalu (RJD in Bihar), Ramdas Athavle (RPI-A in Maharashtra), Paswan (LJP in Bihar), Ramadoss (PMK in TN) & Vaiko (MDMK in TN). •Congress‟ strategic communalism to get Sikh votes (Delhi-Haryana-Punjab-JK). •What has India gained? Small one-man parties that had held since the past 10 years both the NDA & UPA ransom have been rejected by the people. •BJP loses out due to Rajasthan, Punjab, Delhi, MP Metro cities: Mumbai & Delhi go to Congress, while Ahmedabad & Bangalore go to BJP) •People of India have voted for national parties. Thank you for your time

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