Anna Beswick                                                   Dr. Joseph Hagg                                            ...
“Increase the resilience of organisations and infrastructure in                Scotland to meet the challenges and opportu...
change is constant                     environmental       social                         legal                       clim...
change is constant 2012        2020s        2050s   2080s    22nd                                     Century
change is constant 2012        2020s        2050s   2080s    22nd                                     Century
change is constant                          Clydebridge Steel Works, 1950                                                 ...
change is constant                          Clydebridge Steel Works, 1950                                                 ...
a changing climateChanges in temperature, precipitation and sea levelrise will affect all nations... resulting in both new...
Local and national governments, organisations andcommunities around the world are developing strategies tohelp them respon...
London“Not only do we have an environmentalduty to prepare London for changes inclimate, but there is also anincontroverti...
New York City“Taking climate change adaptation actionnow will limit damages and coststhrough the coming decades and, inman...
Adaptation to Climate Change  Adaptation: The adjustment in economic, social or natural systems in   Adaptation: The adjus...
What are we adapting to?                           The changing climate...
Recent change in mean temperature(1961 to 2006)
Recent change in rainfall(1961 to 2006)
Rainfall has increased over the last 50 years... This increase is mostly due toheavier rainfall on wet days (rather than m...
Are we ‘adapted’ to today’s climate?          Adaptation to Present Climate or Weather   Adaptation to Future Climate Change
What do we know about Scotland’s Future Climate?Over the last few decades we have seen remarkable progress in ourunderstan...
The key long-term climate change trends for Scotland are:• Average summer is hotter and drier• Average winter / autumn is ...
Future Temperature
2080s                                                                                                                     ...
2080s                                                                                                                     ...
What difference do a                     few degrees make?                London was 3.0°C warmer than Glasgow            ...
Future Rainfall
2080s                                                                                                                     ...
Changes in extreme rainfall
Sandy: New York is waking up to a new reality“We are vulnerable. Anyone who thinks there is not a dramaticchange in weathe...
Are we loading the ‘climate dice’ for extremeweather events?
- please contact us -                                   www.adaptationscotland.org.uk                                     ...
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  1. 1. Anna Beswick Dr. Joseph Hagg Adaptation Scotland Science Officer Adaptation Scotland Adapting to climate change Trends and projections16th November 2012contact: joseph.hagg@sepa.org.ukContact: anna@sniffer.org.uk
  2. 2. “Increase the resilience of organisations and infrastructure in Scotland to meet the challenges and opportunities presented by the impacts of climate change”Adaptation Scotland Partnership:
  3. 3. change is constant environmental social legal climate political technological economic
  4. 4. change is constant 2012 2020s 2050s 2080s 22nd Century
  5. 5. change is constant 2012 2020s 2050s 2080s 22nd Century
  6. 6. change is constant Clydebridge Steel Works, 1950 1998 Clean Air (Scotland) M8 Junction 8, 1979 Act 1956 1999 2004 2012 1930s 1960s 1990s 2020sKingston, 1925 Hutchesontown, 1962 2012 1948 1994 - 2004 ©capital collections 1927 1960 1974 1987 1999 2012 2 Billion 3 Billion 4 Billion 5 Billion 6 Billion 7 Billion
  7. 7. change is constant Clydebridge Steel Works, 1950 1998 Clean Air (Scotland) M8 Junction 8, 1979 Act 1956 1999 2004 2012 1930s 1960s 1990s 2020sKingston, 1925 Hutchesontown, 1962 2012 1948 1994 - 2004 ©capital collections 1927 1960 1974 1987 1999 2012 2 Billion 3 Billion 4 Billion 5 Billion 6 Billion 7 Billion
  8. 8. a changing climateChanges in temperature, precipitation and sea levelrise will affect all nations... resulting in both new risksand as acting as a ‘risk multiplier’.
  9. 9. Local and national governments, organisations andcommunities around the world are developing strategies tohelp them respond to current climate change impacts andprepare for the future.
  10. 10. London“Not only do we have an environmentalduty to prepare London for changes inclimate, but there is also anincontrovertible financial imperative totake action. Put bluntly, by increasing theresilience of our city to the changingclimate now, will save hard cash foreveryone: businesses, organisations andindividuals alike”
  11. 11. New York City“Taking climate change adaptation actionnow will limit damages and coststhrough the coming decades and, inmany cases, can provide near-termbenefits including operational costsavings and job creation”
  12. 12. Adaptation to Climate Change Adaptation: The adjustment in economic, social or natural systems in Adaptation: The adjustment in economic, social or natural systems in response to actual or expected climatic change, to limit harmful response to actual or expected climatic change, to limit harmful consequences and exploit beneficial opportunities. consequences and exploit beneficial opportunities. Scotland’s Climate Change Adaptation Framework (2009) Scotland’s Climate Change Adaptation Framework (2009) The climate is changing and we need to be ready... ... adaptation means we prepare for the future – to deal with threats and take advantage of opportunities.
  13. 13. What are we adapting to? The changing climate...
  14. 14. Recent change in mean temperature(1961 to 2006)
  15. 15. Recent change in rainfall(1961 to 2006)
  16. 16. Rainfall has increased over the last 50 years... This increase is mostly due toheavier rainfall on wet days (rather than more wet days) Winter (1961-1995) Source: CRU info sheet 15 Change in Change in Change in Average Precipitation Total Precipitation Number of Wet Days On Wet Days In London extreme rainfall events occurred once every 30 years before 1960 - and once every 6 years since then... source: Lloyds (2010)
  17. 17. Are we ‘adapted’ to today’s climate? Adaptation to Present Climate or Weather Adaptation to Future Climate Change
  18. 18. What do we know about Scotland’s Future Climate?Over the last few decades we have seen remarkable progress in ourunderstanding of climate – and how humans are changing it... ... and we continue to improve on this. Scotland has access to world leading information – the UK Climate Projections - about how our climate is likely to change over this century. http://ukclimateprojections.defra.gov.uk/
  19. 19. The key long-term climate change trends for Scotland are:• Average summer is hotter and drier• Average winter / autumn is milder and wetter• Weather will remain variable (e.g. year-to-year), it may become more variableWe can also expect to see:• Increase in summer heat waves, extreme temperatures and drought• Increased frequency and intensity of extreme precipitation events• Reduced occurrence of frost and snowfall• Sea level rise
  20. 20. Future Temperature
  21. 21. 2080s UKCP09 Clyde River Basin – Mean Temperature Probability 90% Level 2050s Baseline (1961-1990) and UKCP09 Projected (2020s / 2050s / 2080s) very likely 67% 2020s High Emissions (A1FI) 50% 33% 10% 20 Baseline (1961-1990) 18 6 16 4Mean Temperature (°C) 14 2 12 0 10 8 6 4 2 0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec winter spring summer autumn winter
  22. 22. 2080s UKCP09 Clyde River Basin – Mean Temperature Probability 90% Level 2050s Baseline (1961-1990) and UKCP09 Projected (2020s / 2050s / 2080s) very likely 67% 2020s High Emissions (A1FI) 50% 33% 10% 20 Baseline (1961-1990) 18 South-East England Baseline (1961-1990) 16 Clyde River BasinMean Temperature (°C) Baseline (1961-1990) 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec winter spring summer autumn winter
  23. 23. What difference do a few degrees make? London was 3.0°C warmer than Glasgow (in baseline 1961-1990) +2.8°C2050s (+1.3 to 4.4°C) So summer temperatures may be more similar to those in south of England by the 2050s... +4.3°C 2080s (+2.4 to 6.8°C) ... and potentially more like those currently experienced in Southern Europe (>4°C) *The projected values are for summer mean temperature under high emissions scenario
  24. 24. Future Rainfall
  25. 25. 2080s UKCP09 Clyde River Basin – Mean Precipitation Probability 90% Level 2050s Baseline (1961-1990) and UKCP09 Projected (2020s / 2050s / 2080s) very likely 66% 2020s High Emissions (A1FI) 50% 33% 10% 300 By the 2080s: Baseline (1961-1990) 270 wetter winterMean Precipitation (mm/month) very likely to be wetter 240 wetter (90% probability more than baseline) wetter autumn and winter 210 drier very unlikely to be drier (10% probability less than the baseline) 180 drier summer 150 120 spring 90 60 30 0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec winter spring summer autumn winter
  26. 26. Changes in extreme rainfall
  27. 27. Sandy: New York is waking up to a new reality“We are vulnerable. Anyone who thinks there is not a dramaticchange in weather patterns is denying reality. We have a newreality and old systems.“ Andrew Cuomo, New York State Governor
  28. 28. Are we loading the ‘climate dice’ for extremeweather events?
  29. 29. - please contact us - www.adaptationscotland.org.uk adaptationscotland@sniffer.org.ukAdaptation Scotland Partnership:

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