SECURING ENERGY RESOURCE                                  …and ‘Plan B’                                  John F Hill, 22nd...
Securing Energy Resource                           The Opportunity                              Power generation – an imme...
The opportunity - replacement       NEW GENERATION CAPACITY               The size of the market:                 First un...
The opportunity – size       NEW GENERATION CAPACITY              The size of the market:                                 ...
Securing Energy Resource                           The Opportunity                              Power generation – an imme...
The Wind turbine power train       Pioneering – utility scale, variable speed wind turbines                            The...
The Wind turbine power train       Pioneering – utility scale, variable speed wind turbines                            The...
The machines – mainstream rating       Matching the wind farm developer CFO                            Larger, utility sca...
Emerging magnet dependence – Standard Speed       Utility scale, variable speed wind turbines                            T...
Emerging magnet dependence – Hybrid      Utility scale, variable speed wind turbines                                      ...
Emerging magnet dependence – Direct Drives       Utility scale, variable speed wind turbines                            Th...
Infrastructure – power balance       The 20 year challenge                      Horses for courses                        ...
Infrastructure – power balance       The 20 year challenge                      Horses for courses                        ...
Securing Energy Resource                           The Opportunity                              Power generation – an imme...
The Risk – political backdrop       WIND TURBINES               The attractiveness of our accessible market:              ...
The Risk – competitiveness       WIND TURBINES               There’s no UK, utility scale turbine maker. For an original e...
The Risk – commodities       WIND TURBINES               The UK has little indigenous ‘rare earth’ material:              ...
Securing Energy Resource                           The Opportunity                              Power generation – an imme...
Alternative Strategies       Compact Induction generators                      Why for wind?                              ...
Alternative Strategies       Bigger still - superconducting generators                      Why for wind?                 ...
Alternative Strategies       Superconducting generators                      Why for wind?                               H...
Thank you for your attentionThis document contains confidential and proprietary information of Converteam and must not be ...
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  1. 1. SECURING ENERGY RESOURCE …and ‘Plan B’ John F Hill, 22nd June 2011This document contains confidential and proprietary information of Converteam and must not be used for anypurpose other than that for which it is supplied by Converteam. Its contents must not be disclosed to any other person nor copied in whole or in part without the prior written consent of Converteam
  2. 2. Securing Energy Resource The Opportunity Power generation – an immediate need The Machines The materials to make the solution Reducing the Risk Long term plans, local suppliers Investing in ‘Plan B’ The cost and value of a reserve option© 2011 Converteam UK Ltd. All rights reservedCOMMERCIAL IN CONFIDENCE CUSTOMISED TECHNOLOGY FOR CUSTOMER SUCCESS 22Jun11 2
  3. 3. The opportunity - replacement NEW GENERATION CAPACITY The size of the market: First underlying fact: conventional generating plant retirements – Throughout the EU, 365GW+ (over 50%) of plant replaced between 2000 and 2030 Source: European Commission – Example UK: Over 40GW of generating plant retire between now and 2030 PLUS GROWTH DECC Electricity Market Reform Analysis, courtesy: Redpoint Energy Ltd© 2011 Converteam UK Ltd. All rights reservedCOMMERCIAL IN CONFIDENCE CUSTOMISED TECHNOLOGY FOR CUSTOMER SUCCESS 22Jun11 3
  4. 4. The opportunity – size NEW GENERATION CAPACITY The size of the market: EU national energy targets (%demand) Second underlying fact – Europe: targets 20% of energy from renewable sources by 2020 Legally binding Some EU nations to do more Example UK - ~30% of electricity, normalised score end 2010; 7.2%! Source: DECC Energy Trends Mar11 – Options (similar throughout Europe) First new nuclear; 2027? CCS operational stage; 2025? Large scale solar PV; cost 2020? South of 50º N CCGT with area heat; 2018? Large scale wind; 2014 Energy efficiency; NOW Source: Redpoint Energy Ltd, Electricity Market Reform Analysis Other underlying facts – China: massive commitment – India: most acute energy shortage – Brazil: best onshore wind – USA: Obama’s second term? courtesy: Eurostat, EC© 2011 Converteam UK Ltd. All rights reservedCOMMERCIAL IN CONFIDENCE CUSTOMISED TECHNOLOGY FOR CUSTOMER SUCCESS 22Jun11 4
  5. 5. Securing Energy Resource The Opportunity Power generation – an immediate need The Machines The materials to solve the problem Reducing the Risk Long term plans, local suppliers Investing in ‘Plan B’ The cost and value of a reserve option© 2011 Converteam UK Ltd. All rights reservedCOMMERCIAL IN CONFIDENCE CUSTOMISED TECHNOLOGY FOR CUSTOMER SUCCESS 22Jun11 5
  6. 6. The Wind turbine power train Pioneering – utility scale, variable speed wind turbines The Megawatt class (1995) Typical rated powers: 500kW - 2MW Start-up wind speed: 4m/s Rated power from: 13m/s Rated speed: 20m/s Cut out speed: 25m/s Rotor diameter: ~70m Asynchronous doubly-fed generator Converteam ProWind DF converter With patented power control Power train costs kept lowest by converter feed to the rotor of the generator only, and availability of ‘catalogue’ generators Tacke 1.5s, courtesy Tacke Wind 1995© 2011 Converteam UK Ltd. All rights reservedCOMMERCIAL IN CONFIDENCE CUSTOMISED TECHNOLOGY FOR CUSTOMER SUCCESS 22Jun11 6
  7. 7. The Wind turbine power train Pioneering – utility scale, variable speed wind turbines The Multi - Megawatt class (2002) Typical rated powers: 2.0 - 5MW Start-up wind speed: 3m/s Rated power from: 13m/s, to Cut out speed: 25m/s Rotor diameter: 80 - 100m Asynchronous squirrel cage generator Converteam ProWind FF converter 4 quadrant Active Energy Management EU / USA Grid Code compliance Grid Fault Ride Through With patented power control SWT 2.3 series, courtesy Siemens Wind Power 2004 No increase to overall power train costs as power electronic costs reduce, and converter fully feeds the ‘catalogue’ generator, with no slip rings.© 2011 Converteam UK Ltd. All rights reservedCOMMERCIAL IN CONFIDENCE CUSTOMISED TECHNOLOGY FOR CUSTOMER SUCCESS 22Jun11 7
  8. 8. The machines – mainstream rating Matching the wind farm developer CFO Larger, utility scale wind turbines, with higher ratings (onshore <3MW, offshore <6MW) are now mainstream: Because infrastructure costs do not grow in proportion to rating – Small projects require big development (consenting, access, connection) – Small turbines require similar footfall – Sites have specific access tolerance – Wind is turbulent near ground level (tall towers, large rotors) – Therefore best kWh/capital is at higher power Higher turbine ratings require a lower speed turbine rotor – High power rating and low speed, mean high torque generator – (or high ratio gearbox) DD115, courtesy XEMC Darwind Minimising turbine structural cost requires a low mass nacelle – Low mass nacelle requires a low mass generator Highest torque / lowest mass = highest torque density – Therefore the lightest generator, with: The lowest serial production cost The least supporting structural cost© 2011 Converteam UK Ltd. All rights reservedCOMMERCIAL IN CONFIDENCE CUSTOMISED TECHNOLOGY FOR CUSTOMER SUCCESS 22Jun11 8
  9. 9. Emerging magnet dependence – Standard Speed Utility scale, variable speed wind turbines The Standard Speed PMG, onshore or offshore (2009) Large scale serial production planned Globally marketed Giant, multi-national turbine makers ‘Building Block’ assembly (say) 250kg of magnets V112 3MW, courtesy Vestas 2.5xl, courtesy GE Wind© 2011 Converteam UK Ltd. All rights reservedCOMMERCIAL IN CONFIDENCE CUSTOMISED TECHNOLOGY FOR CUSTOMER SUCCESS 22Jun11 9
  10. 10. Emerging magnet dependence – Hybrid Utility scale, variable speed wind turbines Power ratings for offshore Fully integrated, geared, Permanent Magnet Generator Rated Powers: 2 - 5MW Rated Speeds: 100 – 400rpm Intermediate Speed Permanent Magnet Generator Magnets: 500kg to 1 tonne Multibrid M5000 Courtesy: Prokon Nord Hybrid PMG –Converteam Nancy© 2011 Converteam UK Ltd. All rights reservedCOMMERCIAL IN CONFIDENCE CUSTOMISED TECHNOLOGY FOR CUSTOMER SUCCESS 22Jun11 10
  11. 11. Emerging magnet dependence – Direct Drives Utility scale, variable speed wind turbines The Direct Drive PMG for a giant Wind Turbine (2010) Large scale serial production planned Globally marketed Giant, multi-national turbine maker ‘Building Block’ assembly Very high reliability Low maintenance High efficiency Converteam ProWind FF converter 4 quadrant Active Energy Management EU / USA Grid Code compliance Grid Fault Ride Through SWT 3.0-101 (courtesy Siemens Wind Power) With patented power control Magnets: around 2 tonne Price competitive with conventional topology© 2011 Converteam UK Ltd. All rights reservedCOMMERCIAL IN CONFIDENCE CUSTOMISED TECHNOLOGY FOR CUSTOMER SUCCESS 22Jun11 11
  12. 12. Infrastructure – power balance The 20 year challenge Horses for courses Tidal Power Tidal energy has one great advantage – predictability Exploiting this source is challenged by its cyclic power output …and tidal zones give us priceless natural features – Tidal turbines La Rance, courtesy EdF Used in a modular way can avoid impacts to the ecology of a tidal zone, but will produce power to a profile which matches the ebb and flow rates Local Flywheels or batteries can compensate efficiently for the cyclic nature of the power available, with high storage density – Small Hydro Power Fleming Lagoon, courtesy DECC Lagoon walls can provide Hydro storage, and contain turbines which generate electricity as the tide rises / lagoon fills, then generate and regulate energy when the tide turns / lagoon empties. – Batch processes Many energy intensive industrial processes are operated in cycles, which can be designed to chronologically match tidal power availability Deltastream, courtesy Tidal Energy Limited© 2011 Converteam UK Ltd. All rights reservedCOMMERCIAL IN CONFIDENCE CUSTOMISED TECHNOLOGY FOR CUSTOMER SUCCESS 22Jun11 12
  13. 13. Infrastructure – power balance The 20 year challenge Horses for courses Wave Power180 INPUT POWER IN KWATTS Some wave technology uses hydraulic accumulators160140120 as stores – but these produce difficult maintenance100 80 60 40 issues 20 Powerbuoy, courtesy OPT 0− 20 Careful modelling of very large wave farm layout can 30 OUTPUT POWER IN KWATTS provide virtually constant power rating with no additional 25 20 storage 15 10 5 …but very large wave farms are many years away. 0 For the next ten years… Supercapacitors on the DC link, Converteam ATG – Supercapacitors Actual constant power is possible for every wave device by fitting supercapacitors to the existing power electronic converter – crucial for direct generation – HydroAir ‘Rotating Inertia’ of air turbines on oscillating water columns can provide sufficient power output smoothing. This is the same resistance to slowing, as described to ride through grid events, but in response to the peak and HydroAir, courtesy Dresser Rand trough of the wave energy source.© 2011 Converteam UK Ltd. All rights reservedCOMMERCIAL IN CONFIDENCE CUSTOMISED TECHNOLOGY FOR CUSTOMER SUCCESS 22Jun11 13
  14. 14. Securing Energy Resource The Opportunity Power generation – an immediate need The Machines The materials to solve the problem Defining the Risk and Reducing it Long term plans, local suppliers Investing in ‘Plan B’ The cost and value of a reserve option© 2011 Converteam UK Ltd. All rights reservedCOMMERCIAL IN CONFIDENCE CUSTOMISED TECHNOLOGY FOR CUSTOMER SUCCESS 22Jun11 14
  15. 15. The Risk – political backdrop WIND TURBINES The attractiveness of our accessible market: UTILITY SCALE – Breathtaking chance of modern, sustainable business – Massive capital investment in all tiers of the industry BARRIERS - UK, Germany, France – Industries need… Political and regulatory stability – Consenting and regulatory authorities need… A clearer brief, and genuine understanding of the service they provide, to our wider society Time to assist, to guide, to improve, brave initiatives or honest objections of residents, farmers and industry Resources to take responsibility for the co-ordination of their data needs; one standard, one checklist (perhaps not Whitelee, courtesy ScottishPower Renewables one hurdle, but one racecourse) Source: BIS Penfold Review Jul10 CLEARLY – the wind industry was formed by environmentalists. We have… – A desire to maintain a natural, scenic setting for life – A recognition of the corrosive impact of short term opportunism THE UNFATHOMABLE BUSINESS CHALLENGE - POLITICS© 2011 Converteam UK Ltd. All rights reservedCOMMERCIAL IN CONFIDENCE CUSTOMISED TECHNOLOGY FOR CUSTOMER SUCCESS 22Jun11 15
  16. 16. The Risk – competitiveness WIND TURBINES There’s no UK, utility scale turbine maker. For an original equipment supplier: 100% export – First stops Europe and Asia Tier Three Specification risk and cost – Example: Chinese standards / regulations / COP Tier Two Contractual risk and cost – Example: German warranty law Transportation risk and cost Tier One – Example: weather delay and damage – Result: delivery (and inward) stock holding Tariff and duty cost Turbine Maker – Example: Indian import classifications Exchange rate risk and cost – Risk both ways; sales and foreign purchases UK BOM costs / landed prices – Euro overvalued, Sterling undervalued; imports expensive, exports competitive Source: Economist Big Mac Index Despite all this WE REMAIN HIGHLY COMPETITIVE. If only UK content were higher…© 2011 Converteam UK Ltd. All rights reservedCOMMERCIAL IN CONFIDENCE CUSTOMISED TECHNOLOGY FOR CUSTOMER SUCCESS 22Jun11 16
  17. 17. The Risk – commodities WIND TURBINES The UK has little indigenous ‘rare earth’ material: China produces 90% of world supplies; exports cut by 40% in 2010 – Currently stockpiling; “environmental concerns” Prices doubled in the last three weeks – Neodymium oxide for permanent magnets up by 78% Deliveries extended to 30 weeks – Typical state-owned supplier, less than 2% of to date 2011 Low UK share of hi-tech material manufacture: Hywind tow out, courtesy Statoil Carbon fibre prices have risen 80 – 100% in the last ten years – While volumes continue to rise Power semiconductor volumes for wind CAGR >25% – Industry book-to-bill regularly 1.1 – UK manufacturer Dynex, Chinese owned, expanding, Q1/11 book-to- bill 1.4© 2011 Converteam UK Ltd. All rights reservedCOMMERCIAL IN CONFIDENCE CUSTOMISED TECHNOLOGY FOR CUSTOMER SUCCESS 22Jun11 17
  18. 18. Securing Energy Resource The Opportunity Power generation – an immediate need The Machines The materials to solve the problem Defining the Risk and Reducing it Long term plans, local suppliers Investing in ‘Plan B’ The cost and value of a reserve option© 2011 Converteam UK Ltd. All rights reservedCOMMERCIAL IN CONFIDENCE CUSTOMISED TECHNOLOGY FOR CUSTOMER SUCCESS 22Jun11 18
  19. 19. Alternative Strategies Compact Induction generators Why for wind? Under control at high overspeeds No magnets – No demagnetisation risk – Lower propensity to shock damage – No eddy current heating Simpler production Lower cost in higher volumes Variant on current production CIG, Converteam Rugby Massive service experience© 2011 Converteam UK Ltd. All rights reservedCOMMERCIAL IN CONFIDENCE CUSTOMISED TECHNOLOGY FOR CUSTOMER SUCCESS 22Jun11 19
  20. 20. Alternative Strategies Bigger still - superconducting generators Why for wind? High Temperature Superconducting wire only now starting production, but… – Could be cheaper than copper to carry the same current the same distance in just a few years; trend… 1998 $1000 / kAm 2002 $200 / kAm 2005 $100-$150 /kAm 2009 < $100 /kAm – In five years, it could be more readily available than permanent magnets, as rare earth availability declines – HTS Machines can be 50% of the size of conventional machines – Ideal for the naturally high torque of wind turbines – Value of very high power density is amplified by nacelle mounting costs 1.7MW Hydrogenie rotor, Converteam Rugby Patents, Converteam Technology Ltd© 2011 Converteam UK Ltd. All rights reservedCOMMERCIAL IN CONFIDENCE CUSTOMISED TECHNOLOGY FOR CUSTOMER SUCCESS 22Jun11 20
  21. 21. Alternative Strategies Superconducting generators Why for wind? Higher efficiency – HTS rotor has almost zero losses – power consumed by the cryogenics is a small fraction of the normal losses in a conventional rotor – For a superconducting generator, efficiency improvements of several % are possible leading to significant savings over the lifetime of the machine High system stability by using novel machine design (e.g. air gap winding) Low synchronous reactance (typically 0.3 to 0.4 per unit) Low load angle (typically <20 deg at full load) High pull out torque 1.7MW Hydrogenie rotor, Converteam Rugby Patents, Converteam Technology Ltd© 2011 Converteam UK Ltd. All rights reservedCOMMERCIAL IN CONFIDENCE CUSTOMISED TECHNOLOGY FOR CUSTOMER SUCCESS 22Jun11 21
  22. 22. Thank you for your attentionThis document contains confidential and proprietary information of Converteam and must not be used for anypurpose other than that for which it is supplied by Converteam. Its contents must not be disclosed to any other person nor copied in whole or in part without the prior written consent of Converteam www.converteam.com

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