Mobile predictions for 2013

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Appcelerator IDC Report Q4 2012

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Mobile predictions for 2013

  1. 1. Voice of the Next-GenerationMobile DeveloperAppcelerator / IDC Q4 2012 Mobile Developer ReportA Mobile Developer Report of2,837 Appcelerator mobile developers from Nov 15-26, 2012 Mobile Predictions for 2013 Apple is making life more difficult for developers Amazon’s Kindle continues to struggle Strong start for Google’s Nexus tablets Copyright © 2012 Appcelerator, Inc. and IDC. All Rights Reserved.
  2. 2. Appcelerator / IDCQ4 2012 Mobile Developer ReportSummaryAppcelerator and IDC surveyed 2,837 Appcelerator Titanium developers from November 15-26, 2012 on theirperceptions about current debates in mobile, social, and the cloud, as well as their development priorities.Key Findings• Developer interest around the iOS and Android platforms is relatively unchanged since Q3 2012. Despite theintroduction of new products in Q4 and the massive success of devices like the iPad mini, Kindle, Samsung Galaxy S III,and iPhone 5, developer interest around the popular platforms (iOS, Android, BB, etc.) remains relatively unchanged,with shifts of only two to three percentage points.• Apple is making life more difficult for developers. Improved search capabilities and continued growth of theiOS community are not enough to combat the fragmentation issues that Apple has introduced with its new crop ofdevices (iPad mini and iPhone 5).• Amazon’s Kindle continues to struggle for developers’ interest. With less than 22% of mobile applicationdevelopers “very interested” in building mobile apps for the device, the Kindle just barely breaks into developers’ top 10app targets.• Strong start for Google’s Nexus tablets: Google’s Nexus tablets are off to a rousing start, with more than 53.8% ofdevelopers “very interested” in building apps for these devices. Additionally, developers think that the Nexus is a stepin the right direction for Google towards fixing some of Android’s issues of fragmentation and inconsistent deviceperformance.• More apps to watch for in 2013: Developers have indicated that they will be developing more mobile apps acrossthe following consumer-facing categories: business, finance, education, medical, productivity and mobile money.Developer interest in building business-focused apps in industry, social business and office applications also increased.• Mobile developers believe that a mobile-first startup could disrupt Microsoft, Google, and Facebook. We askeddevelopers to name any companies/markets that they believe are vulnerable to being disrupted and having marketshare taken away from them by a mobile-first startup. The top three companies that developers perceive to be ripe fordisruption are Microsoft, Google, and Facebook.• Developers are dismissive about Facebook’s revamped mobile strategy. Despite Facebook’s release of a new nativeapp and revised mobile strategy, 62.4% of mobile developers state it is “likely to very likely” that a mobile-first socialstartup could disrupt the market for social applications on mobile devices and take market share from Facebook.• Facebook is one year or more away from becoming mobile-first. We asked developers how far they believeFacebook is from becoming a mobile-first company. 73.6% believe that Facebook will need a year or more beforebecoming mobile-first. Copyright © 2012 Appcelerator, Inc. and IDC. All Rights Reserved. 1
  3. 3. Predictions from Mobile Developers for 2013• Mobile will forever change retail, and it starts now. 92.9% of mobile developers predict it is “likely to very likely” thatin 2013, most retail companies will have enabled mobile commerce. Developers also provided predictions on howmobile will change the retail shopper’s behavior, including their views on in-store shopping behavior, the mobile walletconcept, and the likelihood that users will make more purchases via their mobile phone than via their credit card in2013.• Don’t wait for NFC! Based on mobile developer predictions, Near-Field Communication is not a requirement forretail transformation and retailers should certainly not hold up 2013 mobile commerce initiatives as they wait for NFCto evolve.• Users adopt augmented reality in a big way. Developers believe that 2013 will be the year for augmented reality tobecome commonplace. Examples like user submitted reviews (restaurants, and services), field service, and knowledgesharing apps are all available today.• More than smartphones: Mobile developers predict that in 2013 every smartphone user will also own a tablet, andthat most people will own a smart-enabled device other than a tablet or smartphone as well.2 Copyright © 2012 Appcelerator, Inc. and IDC. All Rights Reserved.
  4. 4. Developers Remain Bullish on iOS and AndroidInterest in developing applications for the popular platforms (Android, iOS, etc.) remains very high, with Androidphones posting modest gains and Android tablets posting a modest drop-off (two percentage points from lastquarter’s survey). iPhone and iPad saw gains of two and four percentage points respectively among developers whoare “very interested” in developing for the platforms.Windows 8 tablets saw slight gains in the percentage of developers “very interested” in building applications for theplatform, while BlackBerry phones and tablets saw very slight declines in developer interest (less then a full percentagepoint). We typically attribute an increase or decrease of less than three points to the sample sizing and the variabilityof the audience. Only when trends appear that span multiple survey periods do we start to take note of those smallerpercentage point gains or losses.While developers’ interest levels remain relatively unchanged across platforms, 88.4% of mobile developers believethat they will be developing for two or more operating systems over the next year. This is up significantly from 68.9%in last quarter’s survey. Digging deeper into these numbers, we found that 49% of developers plan to build mobile appsfor two operating systems. Furthermore, 30% of developers plan to build apps for three or more operating systems, upfrom 23% in the Q3 survey. Now that consumers have an increasing number of viable platforms to choose from, theability to build a mobile app that is available cross-platform is a must for a successful developer. Copyright © 2012 Appcelerator, Inc. and IDC. All Rights Reserved. 3
  5. 5. 4 Copyright © 2012 Appcelerator, Inc. and IDC. All Rights Reserved.
  6. 6. Apple Continues to Get More Difficult to Work WithDespite significant improvements to both the app store search and the OS, developers’ comfort level and happinesswith Apple seem to be waning. Developers are concerned about Apple’s ability to curtail fragmentation and thesomewhat opaque policies of app store submission.We asked developers “How has Apple’s introduction of the iPad Mini changed your view on developing for Appleproducts?” Only 19% of those surveyed think Apple has done enough to manage that fragmentation and is henceless difficult to develop for. Prior to the past quarter, Apple had been able to avoid many of the fragmentationproblems that have plagued Android. However, with six different screen sizes to develop for now (iPhone/iPod touch,iPhone4/4s with Retina, iPhone 5, iPad, iPad with Retina, iPad mini), developers are beginning to feel the pain offragmentation among iOS devices.We then asked developers “Has Apple become more or less difficult to deal with (application submission,fragmentation, monetization) over the past 3 years?” More generally, 90% of developers believe that Apple hasbecome more difficult, or about the same, to deal with over the past three years when it comes to applicationsubmission, fragmentation, and monetization. This shift will open the door for other ecosystems to offer developersan opportunity. This leveling of the playing field means developers will continue to focus on multi-platformdevelopment spanning the popular operating systems so they can reach the widest possible audience rather thanlocking themselves into a single platform, operating system, or device.Kindle Failing to Garner Significant InterestAmazon’s often-lauded Kindle tablet continues to struggle for developer interest, with only 21% of developers “veryinterested” in building applications for the platform. We believe that this device lacks sufficient application critical massto become a mass-market tablet. Despite massive advertising and Amazon’s enormous reach, developers remainunconvinced that the Kindle provides significant revenue or application opportunities for them.We asked developers to rank the factors influencing their choices of platforms on which to develop. In descendingorder, the top three reasons developers choose a platform are: a large installed base; low cost of devices; and revenuepotential. While the Kindle at $200 USD certainly wins the cost argument, the size of the installed base (estimatedat three to four million devices) and the revenue potential of that installed base fail to entice developers. In the pasttwo surveys, only 18% and 20% of developers have stated that they are “very interested” in developing for the Kindle,scarcely breaking the device into the top five.Nexus RisingDevelopers showed strong interest in developing mobile apps for the Google Nexus platform, with fully 53.8% of them“very interested.” This high percentage is unprecedented, dwarfing established platforms like Windows Mobile 7 andBlackBerry, and getting quite close to interest levels in development for Android tablets more generally.In a follow-on question, we asked developers’ opinion of Google’s entry (the Nexus tablets) into the tabletmarketplace, expecting to find that Google’s conflicting priorities (Android platform penetration vs. Nexus devicesales) would negatively impact both developer interest and device adoption. However, developers believe thatGoogle is showing strong leadership and establishing with the Nexus a reference architecture for other Androidtablet manufacturers to follow. 66.6% of developers feel positive about Google’s entry into the tablet marketplace Copyright © 2012 Appcelerator, Inc. and IDC. All Rights Reserved. 5
  7. 7. and believe the company provided leadership for Android tablets in general. This jibes with 53.8% of those developersbeing interested in developing specifically for the Nexus.35.1% of developers believe that with Nexus, Google is taking a leadership position, and 31.5% believe that otherAndroid tablet manufacturers should look to the Nexus as a reference architecture moving forward. We interpretthis as positive developer sentiment towards Google’s taking an increasingly direct role in Android development;developers view it as a good move by Google, one that potentially gives the company the ability to curtail much of thefragmentation continually cited as causing the majority of Android issues. Less than 8% of developers view Google’sproduction of the Nexus negatively, or believe that it will negatively affect other Android tablet manufacturers.Microsoft Fails to Break the SurfaceDevelopers are impressed with the tablet hardware delivered by Microsoft through its Surface offering. However,they believe Microsoft still has significant work to do to make Windows 8 a successful mobile platform. 20% ofdevelopers are impressed with the hardware and think it will accelerate Microsoft’s mobile ambitions. However, 35.5%of developers believe that while the tablet may be a nice piece of hardware, Microsoft needs more to be successful.To accelerate the success of the Windows platform for mobile devices, the company will need to make investments indeveloper relations and application enablement.6 Copyright © 2012 Appcelerator, Inc. and IDC. All Rights Reserved.
  8. 8. Perhaps even more telling are the 45% of developers who remain unimpressed with the hardware and don’t believe ithas much advantage over the tablets already on the market. It is also telling that still only 35% of developers are “veryinterested” in building applications for the platform, which is relatively consistent with the past two quarters despitethe fact that Windows hardware is now actually in developers’ hands.2013 Mobile PredictionsWe asked mobile developers to give their predictions for 2013. Developers predict that it is “likely to very likely” that thefollowing will occur in 2013: • Retail is on the cusp of transformation. Mobile will forever change the face of retail, and that change starts now. 92.9% of mobile developers predict that it is “likely to very likely” that in 2013 most retail companies will have enabled mobile commerce. Shoppers are already driving this transformation, as evidenced by 86.4% of developers predicting that it is “likely to very likely” that in 2013 most shoppers will look up a retailer’s site on their device while shopping in the store. Furthermore, 73.1% of developers believe it is “likely to very likely” that the mobile wallet concept will permeate the consumer experience in 2013, and 63.9% of developers predict it is “likely to very likely” that users will make more purchases via their mobile phone than via their credit card in 2013. • 57.5% of mobile developers predict that Near-Field Communication purchases will be commonplace, i.e. that all major stores will adopt NFC purchasing, in 2013. NFC, while interesting, is not a requirement for retail transformation and retailers should certainly not hold up their mobile commerce initiatives as they wait for NFC to evolve. • More than smartphones: 57.6% of mobile developers predict that it is “likely to very likely” that every smartphone user will also own a tablet in 2013. 60.3% of developers believe that it is “likely to Copyright © 2012 Appcelerator, Inc. and IDC. All Rights Reserved. 7
  9. 9. very likely” that most people will own a smart-enabled device (e.g. refrigerator, car, etc.), not just a phone or tablet. • Augmented reality takes off. 63.5% of mobile developers believe that augmented reality on mobile will grow exponentially and be commonplace across devices in 2013. This further emphasizes the value proposition of building superior native experiences across devices and platforms.Movers and Shakers: Types of Apps that are on the Rise vs Decline in 2013We ask our developers every quarter about the categories of consumer vs business apps that they plan to develop.We have benchmarked their responses in order to report on the categories with the greatest increase or decrease indeveloper interest over time.Between Q4 2010 and Q4 2012, the greatest increase in developer interest for consumer-facing apps occurred inthe following categories: Business (20.3% increase since Q4’10), Finance (8.2% increase since Q4’10), Education (8.1%since Q4’10), Medical (8% increase since Q4’10), Productivity (7.8% increase since Q4’10) and Mobile Money (6.6%increase since Q4’10). During 2013, consumers should expect to see more of these types of mobile apps.Between Q4 2010 and Q4 2012, the greatest decrease in developer interest for consumer-facing apps occurred in thefollowing categories: Social networking (9.7% decrease since Q4’10) and Entertainment (7.4% decrease since Q4’10).Between Q2 2011 and Q4 2012, the greatest increase in developer interest for business-focused apps occurred inthe following categories: Industry (6.9% increase since Q2’11), Social Business (4.8% increase since Q2’11) and OfficeApplications (3.9% increase since Q2’11). Finally, Collaboration business apps are the only business category that saw adecrease (5.1% decrease since Q2’11).8 Copyright © 2012 Appcelerator, Inc. and IDC. All Rights Reserved.
  10. 10. Tech Giants Take Heed!In our last survey report, we emphasized that mobile has the power to reshape entire industries, and that thesechanges can be swift. Given how susceptible to disruption mobile developers viewed Facebook in our last survey, weasked developers in this quarter’s survey to name any companies/markets that they believe are vulnerable to beingdisrupted and having market share taken away from them by a mobile-first startup.The top three companies that developers perceive to be ripe for disruption are a veritable who’s-who of the biggesttech darlings: Microsoft (8% of respondents), Google (7% of respondents), and Facebook (7% of respondents). If mobiledevelopers believe that these tech giants (which have, in-house, the best engineers to help them innovate quickly) arevulnerable, then enterprises in mature markets should pay attention.Developers Dismissive of Facebook’s Revamped Mobile StrategyIn our Q3 developer survey, we asked developers about the likelihood that a mobile-first startup could disruptFacebook’s dominance in social. In Q3 2012, a resounding 66% of mobile developers stated that it was “likely to verylikely” that a mobile-first social startup could disrupt the market for social applications on mobile devices and takemarket share from Facebook. After our last survey was administered, Facebook released a native app and changed itsmobile strategy. Thus, in this quarter’s survey, we asked mobile developers whether Facebook’s increased focus onmobile has changed their opinion of the likelihood of such disruption.62.4% of mobile developers still believe that it is “likely to very likely” that a mobile-first social startup could disruptthe market for social applications on mobile devices and take market share from Facebook. This emphasizes thata transformative mobile strategy is not just about an improved mobile app. The real threat to Facebook is from astartup that is able to re-imagine social from the ground up for mobile. Facebook, and all other businesses that didnot develop with mobile as their primary focus, need to realize that mobile transformation will not occur from simplyporting elements of their existing desktop-optimized business model over to mobile. Mobile-first startups, such as Copyright © 2012 Appcelerator, Inc. and IDC. All Rights Reserved. 9
  11. 11. Instagram, were able to get rapid adoption in mobile by delivering social-specific activities built with an exclusive focuson the needs of the mobile user. Despite Facebook’s recent push to revitalize its mobile strategy in order to emerge asa steadily growing business after its disastrous IPO, mobile developers are not optimistic about Facebook’s prospects.We probed further and asked developers how far they believe Facebook is from becoming a mobile-first company.73.6% of mobile developers surveyed believe that Facebook will need a year or more to reach that goal. Requiringmore than one year of investment is risky in a market that is innovating at the speed of mobile (let’s not forget that fouryears ago, the iPad did not even exist!). This finding highlights the magnitude of the job of becoming a mobile-firstenterprise for those companies that did not grow up thinking about their mobile audience as a priority. Competitivepressures are so great in mobile that companies realize they need to re-imagine their business from a mobile-firstviewpoint across multiple devices, platforms, and operating systems.The length of time it took Facebook to release just a single native iOS app, coupled with the fact that a correspondingnative Android app is still MIA, has proven that the company does not yet have a viable cross-platform mobile strategy.Facebook is not able to deliver the superior user experiences that their users are expecting across all the devices theyare using. Developers are underscoring increasing trouble ahead for Facebook. They do not see it poised to deliver thesubstantial level of growth from mobile that the beleaguered social giant needs to rejuvenate its stock.10 Copyright © 2012 Appcelerator, Inc. and IDC. All Rights Reserved.
  12. 12. About the Appcelerator / IDCQ4 2012 Mobile Developer ReportAppcelerator and IDC surveyed 2,837 Appcelerator Titanium developers from November 15-26, 2012 on theirperceptions about current debates in mobile, social, and the cloud as well as their development priorities. Developerswere individually invited from Appcelerator’s user registration database to complete a web response survey. A raffle fora free iPad mini was made and only one response per user was allowed. Respondents’ answers were given freely withno other incentive or compensation for their participation.Appcelerator developers represent a uniquely broad spectrum of backgrounds. Thirty-six percent of respondentsclassify themselves as independent developers, with the other 64% coming from businesses. Appcelerator has a globalaudience, with 33% surveyed stating they live in North America, 33% in Europe, and 34% throughout the rest of theworld. Note also that Appcelerator developers come from a web development background, so although they buildapplications with Appcelerator Titanium, they are used to working across multiple platforms. About Appcelerator Appcelerator is the leading mobile development platform of choice for thousands of enterprises including eBay, Merck, Mitsubishi Electric, NBC, PayPal and Ray-Ban, as they become mobile-first organizations. With more than 50,000 mobile applications deployed on 90 million devices, Appcelerator’s award-winning open source development platform, Titanium, and Appcelerator Cloud Services are used to create native apps across multiple devices including iOS, Android, Windows and BlackBerry, as well as hybrid and HTML5 mobile web. Customers who standardize on Appcelerator’s solutions get to market 70 percent faster and achieve a significant competitive advantage. Appcelerator’s worldwide ecosystem includes 390,000 mobile developers and hundreds of ISVs and strategic partners including SAP and Cognizant. For more information visit www.appcelerator.com About IDC International Data Corporation (IDC) is the premier global provider of market intelligence, advisory services, and events for the information technology, telecommunications, and consumer technology markets. IDC helps IT professionals, business executives, and the investment community to make fact-based decisions on technology purchases and business strategy. More than 1,000 IDC analysts provide global, regional, and local expertise on technology and industry opportunities and trends in over 110 countries. For more than 46 years, IDC has provided strategic insights to help our clients achieve their key business objectives. IDC is a subsidiary of IDG, the world’s leading technology media, research, and events company. You can learn more about IDC by visiting www.idc.com Copyright © 2012 Appcelerator, Inc. and IDC. All Rights Reserved. 11
  13. 13. Report Inquiries: Michael King John JacksonDirector of Enterprise Strategy - Appcelerator Research Vice Presidentmking@appcelerator.com Mobile & Connected Platforms- IDCOffice: 650-528-2961 jjackson@idc.com Office: 508-935-4255Media Inquiries:Jill AsherDirector of Public Relations - Appcelerator Michael Shirerjasher@appcelerator.com IDCOffice: 650-200-4255 press@idc.com Office: 508-935-420012 Copyright © 2012 Appcelerator, Inc. and IDC. All Rights Reserved.

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