Political Economy of Climate Change Reforms

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Political Economy of Climate Change Reforms: The Case of Pakistan

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  • Associations for Social Movement: Such as parents teachers associationsDevelopment partners may be multilateral or bilateral
  • Federal government has completely withdrawn from its environmental responsibilitiesWe didn’t ask for foreign aid in this sectorMost of these are salariesand not capital expenditure
  • Allocation less than previous year
  • Is pakistan’s environment only about forest, wildlife and fisheries?
  • Money not allocated for the last 3 initiatives. Disconnect between budget and rhetoric
  • Is pakistan’s environment only about forest, wildlife and fisheries?
  • Is pakistan’s environment only about forest, wildlife and fisheries?
  • Yes human K and Physical K is important for growth…but so is socialcaptial
  • And literature of Richrd Florida endorses this.
  • In this report we explore the intersection between environmental sustainability and equity with the understanding that the most disadvantaged people bear the harshest repercussions of environmental deterioration. We address the following central questions: How can we… Maintain human progress in ways that are equitable and that do not harm the environment? Meet the development aspirations of poor people worldwide? Promote policies that will advance both equity and sustainability?(refer to diagram on slide) The idea is to break the false dilemma that we can choose only one or the other – but rather that by combining the two, sustainability and equity, we are able to achieve the highest level of progress in Human Development.Our goal is to….pursue sustainability as a matter of social justice for current and future generations alike
  • Our starting point (a key theme of the 2010 HDR), is the enormous progress over the past several decadesSimulations for this Report suggest that by 2050 the global HDI would be 19% higher than it is today. Developing countries would see the largest gains, with a 24% increase, in particular Sub-Saharan Africa (44%) and South Asia (36%).However, if we face environmental challenges (such as the impact of global warming on agriculture, clean water, sanitation and pollution) the increase in global HDI is predicted to be 8% lower (12 percent lower in South Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa). Under an even more adverse “environmental disaster” scenario, (vast deforestation and land degradation), the global HDI would be 15 percent below the projected baseline (with dramatic impact in developing countries: 24% for Sub-Saharan Africa and 22% for South Asia). These scenarios show the scale of the losses and risks our grandchildren will face if we do nothing to halt or reverse current trends through 2050.
  • Our starting point (a key theme of the 2010 HDR), is the enormous progress over the past several decadesSimulations for this Report suggest that by 2050 the global HDI would be 19% higher than it is today. Developing countries would see the largest gains, with a 24% increase, in particular Sub-Saharan Africa (44%) and South Asia (36%).However, if we face environmental challenges (such as the impact of global warming on agriculture, clean water, sanitation and pollution) the increase in global HDI is predicted to be 8% lower (12 percent lower in South Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa). Under an even more adverse “environmental disaster” scenario, (vast deforestation and land degradation), the global HDI would be 15 percent below the projected baseline (with dramatic impact in developing countries: 24% for Sub-Saharan Africa and 22% for South Asia). These scenarios show the scale of the losses and risks our grandchildren will face if we do nothing to halt or reverse current trends through 2050.
  • Our starting point (a key theme of the 2010 HDR), is the enormous progress over the past several decadesSimulations for this Report suggest that by 2050 the global HDI would be 19% higher than it is today. Developing countries would see the largest gains, with a 24% increase, in particular Sub-Saharan Africa (44%) and South Asia (36%).However, if we face environmental challenges (such as the impact of global warming on agriculture, clean water, sanitation and pollution) the increase in global HDI is predicted to be 8% lower (12 percent lower in South Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa). Under an even more adverse “environmental disaster” scenario, (vast deforestation and land degradation), the global HDI would be 15 percent below the projected baseline (with dramatic impact in developing countries: 24% for Sub-Saharan Africa and 22% for South Asia). These scenarios show the scale of the losses and risks our grandchildren will face if we do nothing to halt or reverse current trends through 2050.
  • Political Economy of Climate Change Reforms

    1. 1. Political Economy of Climate Change Reforms The Case of Pakistan Vaqar Ahmed Sustainable Development Policy InstituteSANDEE Workshop in Environmental Economics & Policy, 17th September 2012 Islamabad, Pakistan 1
    2. 2. Levels of Political Economy Analysis Macro level analysis Problem- Sectoral driven level analysis analysis 2
    3. 3. Key Issues under Political Economy Analysis Administrative Service Economic Peace building reform delivery growth 3
    4. 4. Drivers in Political Economy Framework Structural Features Agents Institutions 4
    5. 5. Stakeholder Mapping in Political Economy Framework Citizens Traditional Political Authoritie parties s Developm State ent Institution Partners s Businesses NGOs Associatio ns for Social Movement 5
    6. 6. How much Climate Change is Respected in Budget? Public Sector Development Program 2012-13 6
    7. 7. Federal and Provincial Development Programs (2011-12) Rs. Million 7
    8. 8. Provincial Priorities• Punjab – Forest: Rs. 470 million – Wildlife: Rs. 395 million – Fisheries: Rs. 370 million• Khyber Pakhtunkhwa – Forest: Rs. 434 million – Wildlife: Rs. 183 million – Fisheries: Rs. Rs. 400 million• Similar classification for other provinces 8
    9. 9. Provincial Outlook 2012-13• Strengthening institutional set-up to tackle climate change impact – Planned establishment of Environment Management Unit in Sindh (important after 18th Amendment)• Capacity building of the environment related institutions• Traditional hazards arising from poor water supply & sanitation• Environmental management of polluted rivers and water bodies – Disconnect between budget and rhetoric 9
    10. 10. More Rhetoric…. 10
    11. 11. Rhetoric Continues……. 11
    12. 12. Gap between Academia and Policy Community • Conclusions  Constraints  Advocacy  Demand – Is your research going to advice same conclusion? – Did you identify binding constraints in implementing environmental reforms? – Did you follow up your research via advocacy? – Did you manage to form a constituency that demands environmental reforms? 12
    13. 13. How Innovative is our Research Process? Before you give policy advice please consider three issues: • Social capital for making a specific intervention • Social accountability (and urban spaces) • Social innovation (and cleaner environment) 13
    14. 14. Socially-relevant Economic Growth Process Public expenditure and social capital 3 Case Studies Finding Cities innovation being more processes that reduce responsive inequalities to poor 14
    15. 15. Social Capital and Disaster Management• Floods in 2010 and 2011• Investment available from local and external sources – Absorption of adaptation measures difficult (people don’t want to move from their flooded homes)• In 2010 significant portion of disaster management funds surrendered/diverted• In 2011 social mobilization teams went first and interventions came latter• In 2011 pre-flood negotiations with katcha settlers – Absorption improved and timely expenditures observed Social Capital more important than human and physical capital 15
    16. 16. Social Accountability and Cities• South Asian Mayor’s Meeting• We conducted social accountability interventions in two urban slum areas with lowest enrollment: – Minority Christian community – Migrant community• Parents-Teachers committees formed over 13 months and parents informed on registering grievances• Parents ensuring not only child attendance but also content of schooling• A case for micro-governance interventions Cities have a greater tendency to be pro-poor 16
    17. 17. Social Innovation and Environment• While formal innovation systems still remain clogged by barriers to entry in market• It is the informal innovations that are pro-poor and have greater growth potential – Honey bee network  Anil Gupta• Case Study of Garbage Bank (Gul Bahao Project) – Low cost consumer durables – Housing at affordable prices – Infrastructure at lower unit costs Innovations that respond to needs of the poor 17
    18. 18. Thinking Climate Change - differently Non- Human National traditional insecurity emergencysecurity threat 18
    19. 19. Thinking Climate Change - differently Direct Indirect Consequences Slow-onset impact Mega- Water Food Health Disasters Bio-fuel Sea level projects Nation states Long history begin to lose Isolated food of Short term credibility – fuel Small number Local conflict Failure to Failure to development- (2007- due to competition of over water meet MDGs meet MDGs induced 2020) inability to & price displacements displacement prevent large spikes from 1950s disasters Displacement Significant of rural poor political Increased due to CDM & unrest due to Food-fuel Increasing Medium Interacts with local & some Significant large scale failure of competition displacement term food international displacement dams & other DRR & increases & & national/ (2021- production conflict over due to famine state based inadequate biodiversity international 2050) problems water mitigation & recovery in erosion tension adaptation many projects countries Major upheaval Major urban with Major Major Major Major Major upheaval and Long term international discontent international international displacement displacement other political (2051- implications due to food- tensions due to conflict over & political due to fall out from 2100) due to fuel population water upheaval epidemics mega-project unattended competition displacement displacement weather catastrophes Ben Wisner etal,15April 2007, Climate Change and Human Security 19
    20. 20. Message from Human Development Report 20
    21. 21. How Environment Challenges Human Development? 21
    22. 22. National Consultations on Green Economy – Some Recommendations• Sustainable Development – Devising implementation framework for National Sustainable Development Strategy • Focus less on investment aspects and more on governance – Where to after devolution? • Environmental appraisal of national and sub-national policies, programs and projects – Establishing National Fund on Climate Change and Green Development – Central Bank to incentivize green investments 22
    23. 23. National Consultations on Green Economy – Some Recommendations• Cleaner Energy – Alternative energy: Revisit hydel power – Technology for cleaner conventional sources: clean coal, carbon capture and storage, and carbon offset – Energy Efficiency: adopt policies, financing instruments, and information dissemination to promote energy efficiency in power generation and distribution, transport, buildings, and industry 23
    24. 24. National Consultations on Green Economy – Some Recommendations• Two additional areas – Sustainable agriculture for food security – Sustainable urbanization 24
    25. 25. Bottom Line in Political Economy Analysis for Climate Change Interventions • Where is the capacity to comprehend advice? • Is there enough social capital to make intervention? • Is it possible to introduce demand-side accountability? • Will it be least cost intervention? 25
    26. 26. Thank You vaqar@sdpi.orgwww.sdpi.org, www.sdpi.tv 26

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