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Workshop #14: Behaviour, government policy and me: applying behavioural insights to society and self by Samuel Hanes

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Behavioural insights (BI) helps us understand human behaviour and decision making. Following on from Dr. Rory Gallagher’s keynote address, this session will invite attendees to participate in some behavioural experiments, hear about how the findings can be applied to government policy and then learn some simple tips that could boost their own productivity.

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Workshop #14: Behaviour, government policy and me: applying behavioural insights to society and self by Samuel Hanes

  1. 1. © Behavioural Insights ltd Behaviour, government policy and me: applying behavioural insights to society and self Samuel Hanes
  2. 2. © Behavioural Insights ltd Agenda 09:30 Introduction to Behavioural Insights 10:15 The EAST framework 11:30 Applications to self
  3. 3. © Behavioural Insights ltd Agenda 09:30 Introduction to Behavioural Insights 10:15 The EAST framework 11:30 Applications to self
  4. 4. © Behavioural Insights ltd Estimation Game •  Ten quantities are below •  For each, write down your best estimate Question Estimate 1. Number of countries in Asia 2. Height of Mount Kinabalu, Malaysia (in metres) 3. Population of ASEAN, 2015 4. GDP of Singapore (in USD) (World Bank) 5. Number of languages spoken in the Philippines 6. Cars manufactured in Indonesia, 2014 7. Global Road Injury Deaths, 2013 8. Global Deaths to HIV/AIDS, 2014 9. How many MRT stations in Singapore? 10. Malaysian durian consumption (in kg), 2014
  5. 5. © Behavioural Insights ltd Estimation Game •  Now put a lower and upper bound around your estimate, so that you are 90% confident that the truth lies inside it Question Estimate Upper Lower 1. Number of countries in Asia 2. Height of Mount Kinabalu, Malaysia (in metres) 3. Population of ASEAN, 2015 4. GDP of Singapore (in USD) (World Bank) 5. Number of languages spoken in the Philippines 6. Cars manufactured in Indonesia, 2014 7. Global Road Injury Deaths, 2013 8. Global Deaths to HIV/AIDS, 2014 9. How many MRT stations in Singapore? 10. Malaysian durian consumption (in kg), 2014
  6. 6. © Behavioural Insights ltd Estimation Game •  The answers: Question Estimate 1. Number of countries in Asia 48 2. Height of Mount Kinabalu, Malaysia (in metres) 4,095 3. Population of ASEAN, 2015 633m 4. GDP of Singapore (in USD) (World Bank) $297.9bn 5. Number of languages spoken in the Philippines 175 6. Cars manufactured in Indonesia, 2014 1.3m 7. Global Road Injury Deaths, 2013 1.25m 8. Global Deaths to HIV/AIDS, 2014 1.2m 9. How many MRT stations in Singapore? 121 10. Malaysian durian consumption (in kg), 2014 326.92m kg
  7. 7. © Behavioural Insights ltd Estimation Game Most people’s guesses fall outside the upper and lower bounds between 30 and 70% of the time. “We are more confident than we deserve to be regarding the accuracy of our knowledge. Most of us are overconfident in the precision of our beliefs” (Max Bazerman & Don Moore)
  8. 8. © Behavioural Insights ltd Behavioural insights are empirical findings about human behaviour that can be used to make public policy more effective What are behavioural insights?
  9. 9. © Behavioural Insights ltd Behavioural insights are empirical findings about human behaviour that can be used to make public policy more effective People can be unpredictable, so we are interested in insights that have been tested and shown to be effective. What are behavioural insights?
  10. 10. © Behavioural Insights ltd Behavioural insights are empirical findings about human behaviour that can be used to make public policy more effective People can be unpredictable, so we are interested in insights that have been tested and shown to be effective. We do not focus on what changes attitudes or beliefs. What are behavioural insights?
  11. 11. © Behavioural Insights ltd Behavioural insights are empirical findings about human behaviour that can be used to make public policy more effective People can be unpredictable, so we are interested in insights that have been tested and shown to be effective. We do not focus on what changes attitudes or beliefs. Insights should be useful and practical for policymakers. What are behavioural insights?
  12. 12. © Behavioural Insights ltd A worked example of behavioural insights: Descriptive social norms Which is the best suit? A B C ? “I think B is the best…” Venkatesan, M. (1966). Experimental study of consumer behavior conformity and independence. Journal of Marketing Research, 384-387.
  13. 13. © Behavioural Insights ltd Control: Respond on their own Social norm: Respond after actors
  14. 14. © Behavioural Insights ltd A worked example of behavioural insights: Descriptive social norms 21% 52% Control Intervention % replying to intervention N=136 Venkatesan, M. (1966). Experimental study of consumer behavior conformity and independence. Journal of Marketing Research, 384-387.
  15. 15. © Behavioural Insights ltd A worked example of behavioural insights: Social norms applied to antibiotics “The great majority (80%) of practices in London prescribe fewer antibiotics per head than yours.”
  16. 16. © Behavioural Insights ltd A worked example of behavioural insights: Social norms applied to antibiotics 100 120 140 160 September (pre) October November December January February March April (post) Antibioticsper1000weightedpopulation Control Treatment
  17. 17. © Behavioural Insights ltd System 1 Fast thinking/Automatic intuitive, effortless 2x2 Taking your daily commute System 2 Slow thinking/Reflective deliberate, analytic 24x17 Planning a trip overseas “It turns out that the environmental effects on behavior are a lot stronger than most people expect” Daniel Kahneman We need to think differently about behaviour
  18. 18. © Behavioural Insights ltd Most policy concerns behaviour…
  19. 19. © Behavioural Insights ltd BI: more nuanced understanding of human behaviour - additional tools for policymakers Regulation Incentives Information Behavioural Insights
  20. 20. © Behavioural Insights ltd
  21. 21. © Behavioural Insights ltd “Our government will find intelligent ways to encourage, support and enable people to make better choices for themselves.”
  22. 22. © Behavioural Insights ltd David Cameron Prime Minister Lord O’Donnell Chair of Academic Advisory Panel Sir Jeremy Heywood Cabinet Secretary and Head of Steering Board Behavioural Insights Team Dr. David Halpern (Chief Executive) Owain Service (Managing Director) Dr. Rory Gallagher (Managing Director, Asia Pacific) Samuel Hanes (Director, Singapore) Academic Advisory Panel
  23. 23. © Behavioural Insights ltd Guatamala: Guatamalan tax administration UK: (i) The Behavioural Insights Team (BIT) & (ii) nudge units in 10 departments Singapore: (i) Prime Minister’s Office & (ii) Ministry of Manpower ‘Nudge Units’ around the world Denmark: The Danish Nudging Network Norway: Greenudge Finland: Prime Minister’s Office Sweden: Swedish Nudging Network Netherlands: (i) Ministry of Economic Affairs & (ii) Ministry of Infrastructure & the Environment Canada: Policy Horizons Canada Chicago: Chicago Nudge Unit US: White House Social and Behavioral Sciences Team NYC: (i) BIT North America & (ii) ideas42 Commonwealth Government: BETA Sydney: (i) BIT Australia & (ii) Behavioural Insights Unit, New South Wales European Commission: Behavioural Science and Foresight TeamWorld Bank: Development Report and behavioural trials OECD: Behavioural science coordination Germany: Chancellor’s Office Moldova: UNDP/BIT collaboration Jamaica: Finance Ministry (UNDP/BIT) Rio de Jeneiro: Mayor’s Office Mexico: President’s Office Victoria: DPC NZ?
  24. 24. © Behavioural Insights ltd We have collaborated with a wide range of government agencies in Singapore
  25. 25. © Behavioural Insights ltd Example 1: Decreasing unnecessary appeals for parking offences
  26. 26. © Behavioural Insights ltd Example 1: information about appeals provided upfront
  27. 27. © Behavioural Insights ltd Example 1: Reminder of evidence requirement
  28. 28. © Behavioural Insights ltd Example 1: 13.7% relative reduction in appeals. 4.50% 3.88% Old New N=112,819
  29. 29. © Behavioural Insights ltd Rolled out nationally, this would reduce appeals by around 3,400 per year Saving ~$105,000 in officer time
  30. 30. © Behavioural Insights ltd Example 2: Channel migration for HDB improvement payments
  31. 31. © Behavioural Insights ltd Example 2: Redesigned letters
  32. 32. © Behavioural Insights ltd Example 2: The new reminders did not increase payment rates 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 No. of days after letter sent 1st Reminder 2nd Reminder
  33. 33. © Behavioural Insights ltd Example 2: Many more people paid online N=2,510 11% 31% Old Letter New Letter
  34. 34. © Behavioural Insights ltd Example 2: This was effective even in older age groups 46% 23% 15% 6% 6% 5% 71% 53% 35% 26% 21% 20% 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65-74 >75
  35. 35. © Behavioural Insights ltd Studying behaviour “can lead to better results for schemes, policies”
  36. 36. © Behavioural Insights ltd Our organ donation trial will add 100,000 organ donor registrations each year.
  37. 37. © Behavioural Insights ltd
  38. 38. © Behavioural Insights ltd 1. Control 2. Thousands 3. People 4. Logo
  39. 39. © Behavioural Insights ltd 5. Three die 6. Nine Lives 7. Would you 8. Take Action
  40. 40. © Behavioural Insights ltd Name Message Image 1. Control 2. Thousands Every day thousands of people who see this page decide to register. 3. People Every day thousands of people who see this page decide to register. Group of people 4. Logo Every day thousands of people who see this page decide to register. NHS Logo 5. Three Die Three people die each day because there are not enough organ donors. 6. Nine Lives You could save or transform up to nine lives as an organ donor. 7. Would you If you needed an organ transplant would you have one? If so, please help others. 8. Take Action If you support organ donation, please turn you support into action.
  41. 41. © Behavioural Insights ltd Proportion joining the organ donor register after a simple online prompt 2.3% 2.8% 2.9% 2.9% 2.9% 3.1% 3.2% 2.2%
  42. 42. © Behavioural Insights ltd Short break and task: Think of a personal or professional goal you would like to achieve. It can be small or large, but choose something you don’t mind sharing with the group.
  43. 43. © Behavioural Insights ltd Agenda 09:30 Introduction to Behavioural Insights 10:15 The EAST framework 11:30 Applications to self
  44. 44. © Behavioural Insights ltd SOCIAL TIMELYATTRACTIVE EASY
  45. 45. © Behavioural Insights ltd Attention depletion (Danziger et al. 2010)
  46. 46. © Behavioural Insights ltd Easy: Prescription charts
  47. 47. © Behavioural Insights ltd Easy: Prescription charts 95% 32% 11% 100% 84% 96% Dose entered correctly Prescriber's contact number entered Frequency of medications entered correctly Existing chart (n=174) Improved chart (n=163) King et al. (2014) Redesigning the ‘choice architecture’ of hospital prescription charts. Forthcoming.
  48. 48. © Behavioural Insights ltd Easy: The ‘Tax Return Initiative’ Direct to form Webpage
  49. 49. © Behavioural Insights ltd Easy: The ‘Tax Return Initiative’ 19.2% 23.4% Webpage Direct to Form
  50. 50. © Behavioural Insights ltd Removing small frictions – university applications Source: Be*nger et al, 2011
  51. 51. © Behavioural Insights ltd Removing small frictions – university applications 34% 33% 42% Control group Information Information + pre-filled forms Bettinger, E. P., Long, B. T., Oreopoulos, P., & Sanbonmatsu, L. (2012). The role of application assistance and information in college decisions: Results from the H&R Block FAFSA experiment. The Quarterly Journal of Economics,127(3), 1205-1242.
  52. 52. © Behavioural Insights ltd Ego-depletion No food vs eat what you like vs radishes only
  53. 53. © Behavioural Insights ltd Resisting temptation can lead to ego- depletion 20.86 18.90 8.35 No food Eat what you like Radishes only Seconds spent trying to solve impossible task Baumeister, R. F., Bratslavsky, E., Muraven, M., & Tice, D. M. (1998). Ego depletion: is the active self a limited resource?. Journal of personality and social psychology, 74(5), 1252.
  54. 54. © Behavioural Insights ltd Scarcity can lower executive control Given 2 scenarios: Your car breaks down and requires [$300 or $3000] to be fixed. You can pay in full, take a loan, or take a chance and forego the service at the moment... How would you go about making this decision? Financially, would it be an easy or a difficult decision for you to make? This was followed by Raven’s Matrices tests for IQ, and tests to measure executive/self control
  55. 55. © Behavioural Insights ltd Initial tests – rich & poor score same. Financial stress made poor more impulsive 0.85 0.840.81 0.64 Rich Poor Cheap Expensive Measure of self control Mani, A., Mullainathan, S., Shafir, E., & Zhao, J. (2013). Poverty impedes cognitive function. science, 341(6149), 976-980
  56. 56. © Behavioural Insights ltd Example slide with a chart (you can copy paste and edit the data) 35% 45% Control Intervention Proportion responding (%) N=136 Source: Author (1999). Title. Journal, issue.
  57. 57. © Behavioural Insights ltd SOCIAL TIMELYATTRACTIVE EASY
  58. 58. © Behavioural Insights ltd Effect of a perceived unique opportunity We can’t use everyone in the study. So could I ask you two short questions first? First, which foreign language did you study in high school? Second, how many brothers and sisters do you have? Regardless of how participants responded to the two questions, the experimenter acted as if the answers matched what he or she was looking for.
  59. 59. © Behavioural Insights ltd Effect of a perceived unique opportunity 57% 61% 90% Control Common Unique Burger, J. M., & Caldwell, D. F. (2011). When opportunity knocks The effect of a perceived unique opportunity on compliance. Group Processes & Intergroup Relations, 14(5), 671-680.
  60. 60. © Behavioural Insights ltd Growth Vouchers
  61. 61. © Behavioural Insights ltd Thousands of businesses are benefiting from professional advice. Now Growth Vouchers cover half the cost of getting professional advice for your business. Click here to apply Control Growth Vouchers is a government scheme that covers up to half the cost of getting professional advice for your business. The vouchers are only available for this financial year so don’t miss out. Click here to apply. Time limited You have been chosen to receive information about Growth Vouchers as we think you may be eligible for this scheme. Growth Vouchers cover half the cost of getting professional advice. Click here to apply. You have been chosen Thousands of businesses are applying for Growth Vouchers. It’s a government scheme that covers up to half the cost of getting professional advice for your business. Click here to apply. Everyone is doing it Growth Vouchers offer up to £2,000 from government to cover half the cost of getting professional advice for your business. Click here to apply. £2,000 Growth Vouchers is a government scheme that covers up to half the cost of getting professional advice for your business. The vouchers are only available for this financial year so don’t miss out. Click here to apply. You have been chosen to receive information about Growth Vouchers as we think you may be eligible for this scheme. Growth Vouchers cover half the cost of getting professional advice. Click here to apply. Thousands of businesses are applying for Growth Vouchers. It’s a government scheme that covers up to half the cost of getting professional advice for your business. Click here to apply. Growth Vouchers offer up to £2,000 from government to cover half the cost of getting professional advice for your business. Click here to apply. Growth Vouchers
  62. 62. © Behavioural Insights ltd Growth Vouchers Three batches of these emails were sent out to 400,000 businesses that might benefit
  63. 63. © Behavioural Insights ltd Click-through rates for the different emails 1.50% 1.61% 1.64% 1.78% 2.27% Control £2,000 Everyone is Doing It Time Limited You Have Been Chosen
  64. 64. © Behavioural Insights ltd Attractive: missed hospital appointments Control Telephone number Costs £160 Social Norm Appt at Mile End Hospital on Sep 16 at 10:00am. To cancel or rearrange call the number on your appointment letter. Appt at Mile End Hospital on Sep 16 at 10:00am. To cancel or rearrange call 02077673200. We are expecting you at Mile End Hospital on Sep 16 at 10:00am. 9 out of 10 people attend. Call 02077673200 if you need to cancel or rearrange. We are expecting you at Mile End Hospital on Sep 16 at 10:00am. Not attending costs NHS £160 approx. Call 02077673200 if you need to cancel or rearrange.
  65. 65. © Behavioural Insights ltd Attractive: missed hospital appointments 11.1% 9.8% 10.0% 8.5% Control Phone number added Social norms Costs to NHS 5,800 fewer missed appointments in one site 400,000 across England
  66. 66. © Behavioural Insights ltd Probability game 1 The pot starts at $2. I will flip a coin. •  If it lands tails, you win the pot and the game is over. •  If it lands heads I double the pot and flip again. How much would you play to pay this game? E.g. Heads, heads, heads, tails – you win $16 Heads, tails – you win $4
  67. 67. © Behavioural Insights ltd Probability game 2 Guess a number between 1 and 100. The winner is the person who guesses a number that is 2 / 3 of the average of everyone else’s guesses.
  68. 68. © Behavioural Insights ltd Compliance messages Control Reminder Have you overlooked this payment? In case you might have done, I’m writing to give you a reminder. Moral Duty Paying your tax is the right thing to do. Moral Equity Paying your tax is the fair thing to do. Public Services According to a 2009 opinion poll, our most valued public services are the NHS, schools, care for the elderly, and the police. Every single tax payment helps to run these services. Costs & Gain Every tax payment we receive means the country has to borrow less money – reducing costs for us all. Costs & Loss Every tax payment we do not receive means the country has to borrow more money - increasing costs for us all. Deficit According to a 2011 opinion survey, people said that one of the best ways to improve the economy was to reduce the public debt and deficit. But to reduce the deficit we need everyone to pay the tax they owe. Please help us achieve this goal by making your payment now. Progress You have already successfully filed your tax return. All you need to do now is call us to pay the amount you said you owe. Progress & Thanks Thank you for successfully filing your 2010-11 tax return: we appreciate this requires effort on your part. All you need to do now is call us to pay the amount you said you owe. Monitoring We will be checking how long it takes you to respond to this letter. Monitoring Day We will be checking our records every day to see if you have paid. Monitoring & Norms Nine out of ten people pay their tax on time - you are currently in the small minority of people that have not paid us yet. We will be checking how long it takes you to respond to this letter. Moral & Monitoring & Norms Paying your tax is the right thing to do, and nine out of ten people pay their tax on time. You are currently in the small minority of people that have not paid us yet. We will be checking how long it takes you to respond to this letter. Deterrence-focused messages Public goods Progress towards end-state Moral concerns Respect / concern
  69. 69. © Behavioural Insights ltd Compliance messages can be more effective than public service messages 57.0 57.5 57.1 57.7 57.2 56.1 57.4 56.3 55.8 56.0 [VALUE]*** [VALUE]*** [VALUE]*** [VALUE]*** Payment rates at 19 days N= 105,379
  70. 70. © Behavioural Insights ltd Voter registration lottery
  71. 71. © Behavioural Insights ltd Voter registration lottery 44.8% 46.3% 46.7% Control £1,000 £5,000
  72. 72. © Behavioural Insights ltd Illusion of progress The results show that card one is completed in an average of 15.6 days Card two is completed in an average of 12.7 days nearly 20% faster
  73. 73. © Behavioural Insights ltd SOCIAL TIMELYATTRACTIVE EASY
  74. 74. © Behavioural Insights ltd Social norm violation spreads disorder 32% 69% No Graffiti Graffiti Littering Encouraged by Graffiti
  75. 75. © Behavioural Insights ltd Social norm violation spreads disorder 13% 25% 27% No Violation Litter Graffiti Litter and Graffiti Increase Petty Theft
  76. 76. © Behavioural Insights ltd Nine out of ten people pay their tax on 1me. Social: self assessment tax
  77. 77. © Behavioural Insights ltd Social: self assessment tax 33.6% 35.1% 35.9% 37.2% 39.0% Control (8,558) UK Norm (8,300) Local Norm (8,403) Debt Norm (8,779) Local + Debt Norm (8,643)
  78. 78. © Behavioural Insights ltd “Por favor presente su declaración del impuesto sobre la renta” “Si usted no declara, puede ser auditado y ser sujeto al procedimiento establecido por ley.” Social: tax in Guatemala
  79. 79. © Behavioural Insights ltd Standard letter – interestingly, it did not tell you how to file your taxes! “Please file your declaration of income tax.” “If you do not declare, you may be audited and could face the procedure established by law.” “According to our records, 64.5% of Guatemalans declared their income tax for the year 2013 on time. You are part of the minority of Guatemalans who are yet to declare for this tax” “Previously we have considered your failure to declare an oversight. However, if you don’t declare now we will consider it an active choice and you may therefore be audited and could face the procedure established by law.” “You are a Guatemalan citizen and Guatemala needs you. Be a good citizen and submit the 2013 annual return of Income Tax. […] Are you going to support your country?” Control BIT Norms Oversight Affect / Ego “According to our records, 64.5% of Guatemalans declared their income tax for the year 2013 on time. You are part of the minority of Guatemalans who are yet to declare for this tax” “Previously we have considered your failure to declare an oversight. However, if you don’t declare now we will consider it an active choice and you may therefore be audited and could face the procedure established by law.” “You are a Guatemalan citizen and Guatemala needs you. Be a good citizen and submit the 2013 annual return of Income Tax. […] Are you going to support your country?” Social: tax in Guatemala
  80. 80. © Behavioural Insights ltd Social: tax in Guatemala 3.9% 4.3% 4.4% 5.0% 5.4% 5.6% No letter Control BIT Norms Oversight Affect / Ego
  81. 81. © Behavioural Insights ltd Social norms – what do we do compared to our perception of others 66% 59% 51% 39% 67% 62% 63% 19% 9% 40% Not saving enough for retirement Not doing recommended exercise Pretend to be sick for work Avoid taxes Eat too much sugar Own Behaviour Norm
  82. 82. © Behavioural Insights ltd Save enough for retirement Eat more than the recommended amount of sugar Avoid paying full amount of tax Pretend to be sick to not go to work +30+32 +26 +4 +4 Do the recommended amount of physical activity
  83. 83. © Behavioural Insights ltd Policy aim: recruiting a more diverse police force “We will transform the relationship between the police and the public We have taken action to boost public confidence and trust in the police and now want to go even further. We will improve the diversity of police recruitment – especially of black and ethnic minority officers.” Conservative Party Manifesto 2015
  84. 84. © Behavioural Insights ltd Stereotype threat Asian women's performance in a maths test were affected by which identity was highlighted 49% 54% 43% No identity highlighted Asian identity highlighted Female identity highlighted Percentage of questions answered accurately Shih, M., Pittinsky, T.L. and Ambady, N. (1999) Stereotype susceptibility: identity salience and shifts in quantitative performance. Psychological Science,10, 1, 80–83.
  85. 85. © Behavioural Insights ltd Treatment message The “affirmation boost”: “Before you start the test, I’d like you to take some time to think about why you want to be a police constable. For example, what is it about being a police constable that means the most to you and your community?”
  86. 86. © Behavioural Insights ltd Test score – BMEs and non-BMEs 111.9 105.9 112.1 110.5 Non-BME BME Control Treatment
  87. 87. © Behavioural Insights ltd Joining the Army Reserve
  88. 88. © Behavioural Insights ltd Joining the Army Reserve
  89. 89. © Behavioural Insights ltd Application rates of candidates for the Army Reserve 4.5% [VALUE] Control Treatment
  90. 90. © Behavioural Insights ltd Reciprocity – People return in kind when you do something for them
  91. 91. © Behavioural Insights ltd Reciprocity – People return in kind when you do something for them 12% 14% 21% No gift Small gift Large gift
  92. 92. © Behavioural Insights ltd 10% 15% 18% 27% Control + Claimant Name + Advisor Name + Reciprocity The power of reciprocity and personalisation: % of job seekers turning up to the Jobcentre Hi Rory, 8 new [job type] are no available at [employer]. Come to Bedford jobcentre on [date] and ask Sarah to find out more. I’ve booked you a place. Good luck, Sam
  93. 93. © Behavioural Insights ltd Cell wall handwritten message
  94. 94. © Behavioural Insights ltd SOCIAL TIMELYATTRACTIVE EASY
  95. 95. © Behavioural Insights ltd Memory game
  96. 96. © Behavioural Insights ltd Memory test: How did you do? 1. Apple 2. Policeman 3. Cake 4. Helicopter 5. Doctor 6. Cow 7. Golfer 8. France 9. Music Notes 10. Wheat 11. Washing Machine 13. Money 14. Clock 15. Dog
  97. 97. © Behavioural Insights ltd Ordering effects: primacy, recency and the ‘peak-end’ rule Primacy Recency Time Recall
  98. 98. © Behavioural Insights ltd Recency – applying to crime policy 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 Sentence 1 Sentence 2 Jail Community Service
  99. 99. © Behavioural Insights ltd Recency – applying to crime policy 0 20 40 60 80 100 Trial 1 Trial 2 Cold water Warmer water 70% of people preferred to repeat the longer trial Kahneman, D., Fredrickson, B. L., Schreiber, C. A., & Redelmeier, D. A. (1993). When more pain is preferred to less: Adding a better end.Psychological science, 4(6), 401-405.
  100. 100. © Behavioural Insights ltd Extended medical procedure for colonoscopies
  101. 101. © Behavioural Insights ltd Extended procedure - results 2.5 4.9 48%1.7 4.4 53% Pain at end of procedure Total unpleasantness Rate of return for follow up Normal Extended Redelmeier, D. A., Katz, J., & Kahneman, D. (2003). Memories of colonoscopy: a randomized trial. Pain, 104(1), 187-194.
  102. 102. © Behavioural Insights ltd “You have to deposit at least Rs. 5000 in the account by December 2010” 31.86% 8.09% December January Source: Tu & Soman, 2014
  103. 103. © Behavioural Insights ltd Time Discounting A $20 Now B $25 in 3 months A $20 now C $20 now D $30 in 3 months D $30 in 3 months E $20 now F $40 in 3 months F $40 in 3 months
  104. 104. © Behavioural Insights ltd Why are we impatient? Younger me Older me Same person or different person?
  105. 105. © Behavioural Insights ltd Students presented with following facts “the important characteristics that make you the person you are right now... are established early in life and fixed by the end of adolescence” vs. “the important characteristics that make you the person you are right now... are likely to change radically in young adulthood” Then asked about $120 voucher. How much bigger would it have to be for you to wait one year before receiving it?
  106. 106. © Behavioural Insights ltd Thinking your personality is changeable affects your discount rate $49 $68 "fixed" "radically change" Bartels, D. M., & Urminsky, O. (2011). On intertemporal selfishness: How the perceived instability of identity underlies impatient consumption. Journal of Consumer Research, 38(1), 182-198.
  107. 107. © Behavioural Insights ltd Hyperbolic Discounting A $20 Now B $30 in 3 months A $20 now C $20 in 9 months D $30 in 12 months D $30 in 12 months
  108. 108. © Behavioural Insights ltd Field experiment in ‘dynamic inconsistency’ Shoppers choose food in advance Have surprise choice to switch to less healthy items on the day Can choose to commit to choices in second week
  109. 109. © Behavioural Insights ltd People switch their grocery choices when presented with temptation 21% 33% Switched choices when offered Chose to commit Sadoff, S., Samek, A. S., & Sprenger, C. (2015). Dynamic inconsistency in food choice: Experimental evidence from a food desert. Becker Friedman Institute for Research in Economics Working Paper, (2572821).
  110. 110. © Behavioural Insights ltd Discounting summary •  Discount rates often higher than you might think •  Can be affected by sense of ‘persistent self’ •  Other research suggests higher amongst: •  Drug users •  Young people •  Men •  People who have recently been through a crisis •  We are also often ‘dynamically inconsistent’
  111. 111. © Behavioural Insights ltd Planning In standard Get Out the Vote Call What time will you vote? Where will you be coming from? What will you be doing beforehand?
  112. 112. © Behavioural Insights ltd Planning – implementation intentions 42.9% 42.8% 43.4% 43.8% Control GOTV Self-prediction Implementation Intentions Nickerson, D. W., & Rogers, T. (2010). Do you have a voting plan? Implementation intentions, voter turnout, and organic plan making.Psychological Science, 21(2), 194-199.
  113. 113. © Behavioural Insights ltd SOCIAL TIMELYATTRACTIVE EASY
  114. 114. © Behavioural Insights ltd Agenda 09:30 Introduction to Behavioural Insights 10:15 The EAST framework 11:30 Applications to self
  115. 115. © Behavioural Insights ltd Your goal Think of a personal or professional goal you would like to achieve. It can be small or large, but choose something you don’t mind sharing with the group.
  116. 116. © Behavioural Insights ltd SOCIAL TIMELYATTRACTIVE EASY
  117. 117. © Behavioural Insights ltd My wish is that I want to be able to complete my physiotherapy exercises in the evening. My outcome would be that I would feel stronger and happier. My obstacle is that when I feel a twinge in my muscles as I do the exercises, I worry it means I’m going to hurt myself, even though I know that the movement is good for my recovery. My plan is that when I feel worried I will remind myself that those twinges aren’t anything to worry about and that movement will help with the pain over time. I’ll just take things a bit more slowly and carefully instead of stopping. Wish: To complete physio exercises in the evening Outcome: I would feel stronger and happier Obstacle: I feel a twinge and worry I’m hurting myself Plan: I’ll remind myself not to worry, to go more slowly
  118. 118. © Behavioural Insights ltd Step 1… WISH What is the wish or goal that you want to achieve?
  119. 119. © Behavioural Insights ltd Step 2… OUTCOME What is the best possible thing that would come from achieving that wish or goal?
  120. 120. © Behavioural Insights ltd Step 2… Visualise it! Take time to imagine how it would feel to have achieved that wish or goal.
  121. 121. © Behavioural Insights ltd Step 3… OBSTACLE What is a challenge or difficulty that will probably come up while you’re trying to achieve your wish or goal?
  122. 122. © Behavioural Insights ltd Step 2… Visualise it! Imagine the moment when you’re most at risk of not achieving your wish.
  123. 123. © Behavioural Insights ltd Step 4… PLAN The thing that you will do when the obstacle comes up that will help you overcome that obstacle.
  124. 124. © Behavioural Insights ltd Make a commitment with stakes
  125. 125. © Behavioural Insights ltd Make some progress immediately Write down a next step you can take today as soon as you leave this workshop. It doesn’t matter how small.
  126. 126. © Behavioural Insights ltd samuel.hanes@bi.team

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