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Riding the Wave of Exponential Innovation

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Prof. Dr. Frank Steinicke (Professor für Mensch-Computer-Interaktion, Universität Hamburg): Riding the wave of Exponential Innovation – Elephants do not eat mice, but cheetahs eat gnus
AT World Usability Day Hamburg 12-Nov-2015 http://www.uxhh.de/wud/2015.html

Published in: Engineering
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Riding the Wave of Exponential Innovation

  1. 1. Human-Computer Interaction, Universität Hamburg Prof. Dr. Frank Steinicke Riding the Wave of Exponential Innovation Elephants do not eat mice, but cheetahs eat gnus
  2. 2. It's not the BIG … … that eats the SMALL,
  3. 3. … but it's the FAST that eats the SLOW! censored
  4. 4. Speed of Innovation?
  5. 5. ~20 years ~5050 days ~250 month
  6. 6. „Adding manpower to a late software project makes it later.“ Frederick Phillips Brooks, Jr.
  7. 7. Apple Computer, Inc., 1984
  8. 8. Xerox PARC, Xerox Palo, 1973
  9. 9. William English & Douglas C. Engelbart, 1968
  10. 10. Rainer Mallebrein (Telefunken): Rollkugel , 1968
  11. 11. 12 Invention Refinement & Augmentation Traction Time W. Buxton: The Long Nose of Innovation, Businessweek, 2008 15-25 years
  12. 12. Long Nose 13 Invention Refinement & Augmentation Traction Time W. Buxton: The Long Nose of Innovation, Businessweek, 2008 15-25 years Growthofanidea
  13. 13. Long Nose 14 Invention Refinement & Augmentation Traction Growthofanidea Time Radar W. Buxton: The Long Nose of Innovation, Businessweek, 2008 15-25 years
  14. 14. Long Nose 16 Invention Refinement & Augmentation Traction Growthofanidea Time Radar W. Buxton: The Long Nose of Innovation, Businessweek, 2008 15-25 years Incremental Innovation
  15. 15. Incremental Innovation 15-25 years of incremental improvements
  16. 16. Long Nose 18 Invention Refinement & Augmentation Traction Growthofanidea Time Radar W. Buxton: The Long Nose of Innovation, Businessweek, 2008 15-25 years Incremental Innovation ?
  17. 17. Ambalappuzha Sri Krishna Temple
  18. 18. Ambalappuzha Pal Payasam
  19. 19. Legend of Ambalappuzha Pal Payasam
  20. 20. 32 64 128
  21. 21. 32 64 128 256 512 1024 2048 4096 8192 16384 32868 64K 128K 256K 512K 1M
  22. 22. 32 64 128 256 512 1024 2048 4096 8192 16384 32868 64K 128K 256K 512K 1M 2M 4M 8M 16M 32M 64M 128M 256M 512M 1G 2G 4G 8G 16G 32G 64G 128G 256G 512G 1T 2T 4T 8T 16T 32T 64T 128T 256T 512T 1P 2P 4P 8P 16P 32P 64P 128P 256P 512P 1E 2E 4E 8E
  23. 23. Legend of Ambalappuzha Pal Payasam
  24. 24. Exponential Growth Example 26W.A. Wagenaar, S.D. Sagaria: Misperception of exponential growth, Perception & Psychophysics, 1975 Year # index 1971 2,300 1972 3,500 1974 4,500 1976 8,500 1978 29,000 • Group 1: How large will the index be in 1989? • Group 2: In which year will the index surpass 275,000?
  25. 25. 27 Gordon E. Moore “With unit cost falling as the number of components per circuit rises, by 1975 economics may dictate squeezing as many as 65,000 components on a single silicon chip.”
  26. 26. Reliability 28
  27. 27. TIME: The Year Man Becomes Immortal, 2011
  28. 28. Radar
  29. 29. Stock chart: Eastman Kodak Company
  30. 30. Steven J. Sasson: Portable all electronic still camera, 1975
  31. 31. Digital Images Implications 35 photo scanner printer photo copies
  32. 32. Digital Images Implications 36
  33. 33. Digital Music Implications 37 audio CD CD reader CD writer CD copies
  34. 34. Digital Music Implications 38
  35. 35. Digital Fabrication Implications 39 physical objects 3D scanner 3D printer physical copies
  36. 36. Digital Fabrication Implications 40
  37. 37. Disruptive Innovation Result of ~20 years of Incremental Innovation
  38. 38. 43 Invention Refinement & Augmentation Traction Growthofanidea Time Radar W. Buxton: The Long Nose of Innovation, Businessweek, 2008 15-25 years Incremental Innovation DisruptiveInnovation Exponential Innovation
  39. 39. Exponential Innovation To avoid death, we should focus on incremental innovation by refining existing technologies, as much as on disruptive innovation by novel creation and research. This ability is at the heart of exponential innovation. 44
  40. 40. Human-Computer Interaction Universität Hamburg informatik die zukunft
  41. 41. Human-Computer Interaction Universität Hamburg Thanks!
  42. 42. Human-Computer Interaction Universität Hamburg Questions? Discussion!

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