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Some ABCs of Forecasting - James Woudhuysen

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Presented at UX Brighton 2018: Advancing Research, 2nd November 2018.

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Some ABCs of Forecasting - James Woudhuysen

  1. 1. ?? ?? Some ABCs of ForecastingPresentation to UX Brighton @JamesWoudhuysen November 2018
  2. 2. Welcome to Europe!
  3. 3. 1 Future UXers = CDOs
  4. 4. Why agility now?
  5. 5. Why agility now? • Rise of agile software, DevOps, ResearchOps • Start-ups: free of silos, can keep options open, can take quick decisions
  6. 6. ?? ??Value of worldwide M&A, 2003-17, $bn Source: Statista/IDC, 2018, https://www.statista.com/statistics/267369/volume-of-mergers-and-acquisitions- worldwide/
  7. 7. Why agility now? • Rise of agile software, DevOps • Start-ups: free of silos, can keep options open and take quick decisions • Buoyant Mergers and Acquisitions
  8. 8. Why agility now? • Rise of agile software, DevOps • Start-ups: free of silos, can keep options open and take quick decisions • Buoyant Mergers and Acquisitions Geopolitical and market volatility
  9. 9. From the early C15 , it meant • nimbleness • dexterity • sinuousness Agility: first principles From agere, Latin for ‘to do’ th
  10. 10. Samuel Johnson (1709-84): have the quality of being speedily put in motion
  11. 11. Agility: first principles Not just physical speed with joints and limbs, but also being mentally quick, alert, acute, discerning, anticipating
  12. 12. ?? ?? Legitimacy crisis
  13. 13. ?? ?? OrganisationUndone by Date NSA Edward Snowden 2013 VW Fake emissions 2015 “Fat Four” accountants Audit, etc 2013-6 Samsung, BT, Barclays Bribes, lazyness, fraud 2017 Royal Boro K&C Criminal negligence, Grenfell 2017 Airbus Industrie Corruption 2017 UK Home Office Windrush mendacity 2017-8 Lafarge Pay to play – with ISIS 2018 Legitimacy crisis
  14. 14. EU wages set for stagnation No clear corporate strategy/goals, or Plan B for 1. Supply-chain disruption in the face of the New Protectionism 2. Reputation management in the face of a fire, cyber-attack 3. Problems: power supply, IT, commuting 4. Problems: air quality and flooding Legitimacy crisis
  15. 15. 1 Future UXers = CDOs • Given the vogue for agility, Forecasting will be vital • Given the crisis of legitimacy & leadership, UXers will move up and add Strategy to Tactics
  16. 16. ???
  17. 17. Carl von Clausewitz, 1780-1831
  18. 18. What do I do back at the office?A. Read beyond UX B. The Big Picture is key C. Interrogate categories D. Think history, inflections
  19. 19. 2Research: customer Goals
  20. 20. ?? ??Key thinktanks on future consumers
  21. 21. EU consumers fear the future, but a bit less
  22. 22. ?? ??2Research: customer Goa Both private and public data mainly treat Attitudes, Behaviour and Circumstances, not underlying Goals
  23. 23. A world of talents, not just needs
  24. 24. ???? ????, 1908-70
  25. 25. Abraham Maslow, 1908- 70 His ‘hierarchy of needs’ was much more subtle than people make out He noted ‘the desire to know… understand... systematise... organise... analyse... look for relations and meanings’ ‘A theory of human need’, Psychological Review, September 1943
  26. 26. ?? ??2Research: customer Goa Both private and public data mainly treat Attitudes, Behaviour and Circumstances, not underlying Goals… so E. Goals => human talent and purpose, not just needs
  27. 27. 3 Resist the buzzwords
  28. 28. The Buddha of Balmoral
  29. 29. Bad concepts, 20181 Uncertainty, runaway catastrophe
  30. 30. Bad concepts, 20181 Uncertainty, runaway catastrophe 2 Exponential disruption
  31. 31. ?? ?? 1963: Doug Englebart invents the mouse. First demo of remote online search. ‘stakeholders’ emerge in an SRI internal memo
  32. 32. Ronnie
  33. 33. Bad concepts, 20181 Uncertainty, runaway catastrophe 2 Exponential disruption 3 Stakeholders
  34. 34. Bad concepts, 20181 Uncertainty, runaway catastrophe 2 Exponential disruption 3 Stakeholders 4 Seamless
  35. 35. Bad concepts, 20181 Uncertainty, runaway catastrophe 2 Exponential disruption 3 Stakeholders 4 Seamless 5 The ‘Xxxx’ space
  36. 36. “AI is already all around us... AI is among us already”
  37. 37. Bad concepts, 20181 Uncertainty, runaway catastrophe 2 Exponential disruption 3 Stakeholders 4 Seamless 5 The ‘Xxxx’ space 6 AI is everywhere
  38. 38. Globally, young workers run scared of IT Source: Verint, Defining the Human Age: A Reflection on Customer Service in 2030, 2018,
  39. 39. Bad concepts, 20181 Uncertainty, runaway catastrophe 2 Exponential disruption 3 Stakeholders 4 Seamless 5 The ‘Xxxx’ space 6 AI is everywhere 7 Digital-native tech-savvy millennials
  40. 40. Bad concepts, 20181 Uncertainty, runaway catastrophe 2 Exponential disruption 3 Stakeholders 4 Seamless 5 The ‘Xxxx’ space 6 AI is everywhere 7 Digital-native tech-savvy millennials
  41. 41. Bad concepts, 20181 Uncertainty, runaway catastrophe 2 Exponential disruption 3 Stakeholders 4 Seamless 5 The ‘Xxxx’ space 6 AI is everywhere 7 Digital-native tech-savvy millennials 8 Sharing economy
  42. 42. Bad concepts, 20181 Uncertainty, runaway catastrophe 2 Exponential disruption 3 Stakeholders 4 Seamless 5 The ‘Xxxx’ space 6 AI is everywhere 7 Digital-native tech-savvy millennials 8 Sharing economy 9 Wellness 10 Happiness
  43. 43. In its own legitimacy crisis – the ‘techlash’ – IT now gets 5 bad raps: • kills jobs • trigger to a Wall St Crash • causes addiction • manipulates the stupid • gets hacked
  44. 44. ?? ?? OrganisationUndone by Date CC details of e-shoppers Welsh teen 2001 Iran Israel/US Stuxnet 2010 LinkedIn Posted on hacker forum, Russia 2012/6 US university professors Mabna Inst, Iran 2013 on JP Morgan Gery Shalon 2014 Sony North Korea 2014 Home Depot, eBay ??? 2014 Democratic National Committee Russia/??? 2016 FBI & DHS agents, CIA head UK teen 2016 UK NHS North Korea 2017 Equifax ??? 2017 Ticketmaster, British Airways Magecart 2018 Some key hacks
  45. 45. Work: deeper & less noticed change1. How to Manage Your Manager 2. 360-degree Appraisal 3. Not Winding Up In Court Because Of Duty-Of-Care Responsibilities 4. Not Being Seen To Let your Mates Down 5. Acting Up (But With No Increase in
  46. 46. What do I do back at the office? F. Always remember: the sociology of the future is more vital than its technology
  47. 47. 4 Interrogate Risk
  48. 48. ?? ?? Panic Date Millennium Bug 1997 Saddam Hussein has WMD 2003 Bird flu on Wall Street 2006 WHO: swine flu °5 pandemic 2009 Prince Charles: 8 years to save the Earth 2009 Fukushima ≠>no more nuclear 2011 Your kettle can be hacked 2016 Trump = fascism 2017 IPCC: sea to rise <1cm pa to 2100 2018 ‘We’re all doomed!’
  49. 49. An ABC of health panicsADHD, Anorexia, Bird flu Computer games Disco TB, DVT Endocrine disruptors, E. coli Fracking, GM foods Secondhand smoke MMR vaccines Orthorexia Pthalates, PLASTICS Red meat, roast potatoes, puddings
  50. 50. 1. Antibiotics 2. Fossil fuels, nuclear, Severn Barrage 3. Red meat, sugar, fast/GM food, foie gras 4. HS2, new roads, new runways 5. Hate speech, tabloid newspapers, lads’ mags, trolls, unrealistic body images 6. Payday lenders, US tax evaders Russia, China, Israel, Hungary, What bien-pensant Brits wanna ban
  51. 51. Barriers to innovation Capex, financialisation, shareholders Short-termism, C-suite rewards, silos Sunk costs, patents, regulation ‘You can’t do that’ (FDs,
  52. 52. Barriers to automation Technical feasibility Cost to build & deploy HW, SW Low wages Weak improvements in quality Regulation, social
  53. 53. What do I do back at the office?G. Distinguish real risks from imagined ones H. Make experiments prototypes to end uncertainty, quantify risk
  54. 54. 5 To what places is innovation bound?
  55. 55. Gross spend on R&D as % GDP, 2000-14 2000-14 Source: OECD, ‘Gross domestic spending on R&D’
  56. 56. Gross spend on R&D as % GDP, 2000-14 2000-14 Source: OECD, ‘Gross domestic spending on R&D’
  57. 57. Gross spend on R&D as % GDP, 2000-14 2000-14 Source: OECD, ‘Gross domestic spending on R&D’
  58. 58. Gross spend on R&D as % GDP, 2000-14 2000-14 Source: OECD, ‘Gross domestic spending on R&D’
  59. 59. Gross spend on R&D as % GDP, 2000-14 2000-14 Source: OECD, ‘Gross domestic spending on R&D’
  60. 60. Gross spend on R&D as % GDP, 2000-14 2000-14 Source: OECD, ‘Gross domestic spending on R&D’
  61. 61. China robots, thousands: the scope for growth
  62. 62. What do I do back at the office?I. Read more on Asia. Use (you don’t have to believe) China Daily
  63. 63. 6 Algebra beats arithmetic
  64. 64. J. Do rate forecasting algebra higher than forecasting arithmetic What do I do back at the office?
  65. 65. 7 Synthesise tendencies & counter- tendencies
  66. 66. The power of the voice
  67. 67. The power of the voice. BUT…
  68. 68. Can I hear myself think, let alone hear who I’m calling?
  69. 69. Acoustics: now hear this
  70. 70. ?? ??
  71. 71. Oldies face special problems Acoustics: now hear this
  72. 72. Oldies face special problems Kia’s sound-zones will come Digital Twins, Google Earth will add user soundscapes Start from users, not the office fabric Acoustics: now hear this
  73. 73. ?? ?? 8 Conclusion
  74. 74. Hassabis: not Artificial Intelligence, but enhanced Human intelligence
  75. 75. ?? ?? What IT can’t do 1. Straighten a pile of magazines 2. Pick & place products on shop shelves 3. Tell a good joke, have a new idea, fall in love 4. Judge art, ethics, people, politics, religion Be self-conscious,
  76. 76. One thing they’ll never automate
  77. 77. ABCs of forecasting 1 UXers = CDOs 2 Research customer Goals 3 Resist the buzzwords 4 Interrogate Risk 5 Look east to Asia 6 Algebra beats arithmetic 7 Synthesise tendencies and counter-tendencies
  78. 78. Thank you! @JamesWoudhuysen Woudhuysen.com

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