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Hypothetically Coherent - Liz Keogh

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Presented at UX Brighton 2017 3rd November

Published in: Design
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Hypothetically Coherent - Liz Keogh

  1. 1. Liz Keogh @lunivore http://lizkeogh.com @lunivore
  2. 2. @lunivore
  3. 3. “…a fundamental assumption… …a certain level of predictability and order exists in the world.“ - Dave Snowden, “A Leader’s Framework for Decision Making”, Harvard Business Review
  4. 4. The Innovation Cycle CommoditiesDifferentiators Build on Spoilers @lunivore
  5. 5. Cynefin Obvious ComplicatedComplex Chaotic With thanks to David Snowden and Cognitive Edge sense, categorize, respond sense, analyze, respond probe, sense, respond act, sense, respond
  6. 6. Estimating Complexity 5. Nobody has ever done it before 4. Someone outside the org has done it before (probably a competitor) 3. Someone in the company has done it before 2. Someone in the team has done it before 1. We all know how to do it.
  7. 7. A Safe-To-Fail Probe has… A way of knowing it’s succeeding A way of knowing it’s failing A way of dampening it A way of amplifying it Coherence
  8. 8. Coherence A realistic reason for thinking the probe might have a positive impact Can you give me an example? @lunivore
  9. 9. In high uncertainty… …scenarios (and plans) provide coherence, not tests @lunivore
  10. 10. A Safe-To-Fail Probe has… A way of knowing it’s succeeding A way of knowing it’s failing A way of dampening it A way of amplifying it Coherence A way of avoiding failure completely @lunivore
  11. 11. @lunivore “That won’t work because…”
  12. 12. @lunivore
  13. 13. @lunivore Large Hospital : 45 babies a day Small Hospital : 15 babies a day Both hopsitals record the number of days they got more than 60% boys Who recorded more days? A) The big hospital B) the small hospital C) both about the same (within 5%)
  14. 14. Correlated in Retrospect n t @lunivore
  15. 15. @lunivore Viagra photo by Tim Reckmann, CC SA 3.0 Walkman by Esa Sorjonen Space invaders by Bago Games, CC BY 2.0 Car Genie copyright AA
  16. 16. @lunivore
  17. 17. @lunivore
  18. 18. @lunivore
  19. 19. @lunivore With kind permission of Dr Lucy King (pictured) http://elephantsandbees.com
  20. 20. @lunivore
  21. 21. @lunivore
  22. 22. @lunivore
  23. 23. @lunivore
  24. 24. @lunivore Liz Keogh liz@lunivore.com @lunivore http://lizkeogh.com

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