2011 U.S. Wheat Situation : Production & Market Highlights


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USW Chairman Randy Suess presented on growing wheat in the Palouse region of Washington and U.S. crop supply and quality at the 201 IAOM Mideast and Africa Conference.

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  • Start with some overall trends for perspective 1. U.S. wheat planted area has been dropping for many years 2. Yields are increasing, but only at a rate of a bit more than 1% per year 3. That is why we see a sideways trend in US wheat production For the 2011-2012 crop, planted area was down…and weather caused problems, but yields were up ... That’s why production dropped. Demand for wheat in general...and for U.S. wheat specifically is trending up and is actually setting records each year
  • Now Black Sea wheat is back. That’s why USDA believes our exports will drop this year…but perspective: this is still close to our five year average of 28.5 MMT. Why?
  • Because you know the U.S. is the most reliable, versatile and valuable supply of wheat in the world. Six classes, multiple ports and the most efficient logistics on the planet.
  • … … use quality to segue to next set of slides
  • Want to walk you through five classes of U.S. wheat We’ll look at crop quality You can get more information at our website, www.uswheat.org...or in the annual Crop Quality Report Let’s start with Hard Red Winter...
  • Note that this compares 2011 crop quality with the 5 year average for samples taken at harvest...mostly composite [Leads to drought photo and wet spring photo]
  • (maybe also note general quality of wheat in your area, here) ...soft red winter is next, grown east of the Mississippi River
  • ...next is soft white wheat off the Pacific Northwest
  • ...and finally Durum
  • This Quality data is from the northern hard amber durum production region...North Dakota and Montana mainly. Very wet weather this spring severely delayed planting and forced some farmers to abandon plans to plant durum in the northern plains; as a result, northern durum production is down significantly…and the total crop is about half of the 3 MMT produced last year. ...so that is a quick summary of U.S. wheat supply and demand and quality...
  • 2011 U.S. Wheat Situation : Production & Market Highlights

    1. 1. Randy Suess Chairman 2011 U.S. Wheat Situation Production & Market Highlights . 22nd Annual IAOM MEA District Conference Dead Sea, Jordan 2 - 5 October, 2011
    2. 2. My farming operation.
    3. 7. U.S. Wheat Production and Yield 56.5 MMT - 6%
    4. 8. U.S. Wheat Supply & Demand September, 2011
    5. 9. Six Classes; PNW, Gulf, Lakes, Atlantic
    6. 10. The U.S. Wheat Store is Always Open <ul><li>No export taxes or embargos </li></ul><ul><li>Contract sanctity </li></ul><ul><li>Market competition </li></ul><ul><li>Transparent, assured pricing </li></ul><ul><li>Assured quality </li></ul>
    7. 11. 2011-2012 Comments  By Class <ul><li>2011 Crop Quality Report and by class reports are posted at www.uswheat.org </li></ul>
    8. 12. <ul><li>Production : </li></ul><ul><li>21.6 MMT (Avg: 25.1 MMT) </li></ul><ul><li>Crop Development : </li></ul><ul><li>S. Great Plains - extreme temps, no rain, early harvest N. Great Plains - rain, delayed harvest </li></ul><ul><li>PNW - yields exceptional </li></ul><ul><li>Quality 2011 v. 5-Yr Avg: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Protein 12.4 (12.3) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>TW (Kg/Hl) 79.9 (79.5) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Humid. 10.7 (11.2) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Falling # 402 (413) </li></ul></ul>Hard Red Winter Wheat 2011 Crop, Sample Averages as of 9/16/11
    9. 15. <ul><li>Production : </li></ul><ul><ul><li>12.9 MMT (Avg: 13.7 MMT) </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Crop Development : </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Extreme wet weather delayed or prevented planting and delayed harvest. Higher than avg. protein, but also higher than avg. S&B. </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Quality 2011 v 5-Yr Avg: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Protein 15.0 (14.1) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>TW (Kg/Hl) 78.7 (80.4) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Humid. 12.3 (12.1) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Falling # 385 (401) </li></ul></ul>Hard Red Spring Wheat 2011 Crop, Sample Averages as of 9/16/11
    10. 16. <ul><li>Production : </li></ul><ul><ul><li>12.3 MMT (Avg: 10.9 MMT) </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Crop Development : </li></ul><ul><ul><li>2011 averages similar to 2010 crop. More uniform quality, less DON </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Quality 2011 v 5-Yr Avg: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Protein 10.2 (10.1) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>TW (Kg/Hl) 77.5 (77.5) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Humid. 12.9 (13.0) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Falling # 330 (329) </li></ul></ul>Soft Red Winter Wheat 2011 Crop, Sample Averages
    11. 17. <ul><li>Production : </li></ul><ul><ul><li>8.1 MMT (Avg: 6.1 MMT) </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Crop Development : </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Favorable harvest conditions, Two weeks behind average. Low moisture, more typical low proteins, good test weights. </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Quality 2011 v 5-Yr Avg: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Protein 9.1 (10.4) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>TW (Kg/Hl) 80.0 (78.6) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Humid. 9.7 ( 9.3) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Falling # 307 (330) </li></ul></ul>Soft White Wheat 2011 Crop, Sample Averages as of 9/16/11
    12. 18. <ul><li>Production : </li></ul><ul><ul><li>1.6 MMT (Avg: 2.4 MMT) </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Crop Development : </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Delayed planting, significant area not planted north. </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Still average protein and a sound crop. </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Quality 2010 v. 5-Yr Avg: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Protein 14.1 (14.4) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>TW (Kg/Hl) 76.8 (78.5) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Humid. 11.7 (11.6) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Falling # 389 (361) </li></ul></ul>Durum Wheat 2011 Crop, Sample Averages as of 9/16/11
    13. 19. Thank you for the opportunity to discuss some important issues. . We appreciate your business!