Trends Shaping Sustainable Land Use in the Next Decade


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December presentation made to professional real estate and design organizations in Hawaii on the trends driving sustainable development.

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Trends Shaping Sustainable Land Use in the Next Decade

  1. 1. Copyrighted MaterialThe following presentation was prepared by UrbanGreen ® ofSan Francisco, CA for presentation in Honolulu District CouncilCopof ULI on 11 December 2012This copy of the presentation is shared to advance discussion ofsustainability and more responsible development patterns. Reuse- in whole or in part - of any or all parts of this presentationshould be requested prior to use. The author reserves the rightto grant reuse permission based purpose.Permission can be obtained by contacting Jim Heid
  2. 2. Urban  Land  Ins+tute  |    11  December  2011    TrendsShapingSustainableLand Use inthe NextDecadeJim Heid, FASLA©  All  Rights  Reserved,    UrbanGreen    2012  
  3. 3. 01 Why Are We Here?
  4. 4. The ‘Ecological Cliff’  h@p://  
  5. 5. Seismic Human Trajectory  h@p://  
  6. 6. A Disrupted Industry Do Real Estate? Shape the Built   Environment? “..all land and “ manmade improvements surroundings that that are provide the setting immovable” for human activity ” Wikipedia Webster’s Dictionary    
  7. 7. 02 Where Have We Been
  8. 8. “Sustainable development is ajourney, not a destination.”
  9. 9. Sustainability 1.0:1987 – 1995DEFININGü  Principles  and  Pla+tudes  ü  Theories  and  White  Papers  ü  The  Call  to  Ac+on    
  10. 10. “Sustainable development isdevelopment that meets the needs ofthe present without compromising theability of future generations to meettheir own needs.”Bruntland  Commission,  1987    
  11. 11. Sustainability 2.0:1996 – 2005ORGANIZINGü  Checklists  and  Ra+ng  Methods  ü  The  Arms  Race  for  Bragging  Rights  ü  Technology  and  Added  Cost    
  12. 12. RANGE  OF  ESTIDAMA   Envisions   Defines  and  Measures   Informs   Conserva9on     Development   Guidelines   Urban     Braille   +  2030  Plans   Roofscapes   Guidelines   Streetscape   Design     Development   Pearls  Design   Manual   Code   System  
  13. 13. So…..what really matters?  
  14. 14. LEED Registered Projects By State 7,000   6,000   Projects  Per  Capita   5,000       Hawai’i:  2.23   Oregon:    2.11   4,000   3,000   Washington:  1.93   California:    1.69   2,000     (per  10,000  Popula+on)   Source:  UrbanGreen   1,000     0   California   Oregon   Washington   Hawaii   Source:  USGBC  
  15. 15. Sustainability 3.0:2005-2010MEASURINGü  Carbon  as  the  IRR  of  Sustainability  ü  Tes+ng  ROI  Against  Benefits  ü  Black  Box  Evalua+on  Methods  
  16. 16. h@p://  
  17. 17. Connecting the dots.  
  18. 18. Sustainability 4.0:2010+CONNECTINGü  Stacking  Ac+ons  Yield  Big  Benefits  ü  Invisible  Sustainability    ü  What  Works  and  Is  Livable  
  19. 19. Seeing The Whole
  20. 20. Streets and Stormwater
  21. 21. Density and GHG
  22. 22. Obesity and Community FormSource:  Centers  for  Disease  Control  
  23. 23. Singular Definition to Integrated Hallmarks Contributes to the environment, region and surrounding communities; Healthy systems, natural and man-made; Inter-generational and demographically diverse;   Carbon neutral at a minimum, carbon negative at best; Memorable and enduring quality of place; Evolutionary framework that is flexible and adaptable; Economically successful – both community and enterprise; Evolves governance from the community; Openly shares lessons, so others can build on its success. Source:  UrbanGreen  for  the  Urban  Land  Ins+tute  Tradi+on  PAS,  2008  
  24. 24. “….if we are to remain competitiveinto the 21st century, we must learn tothink in new ways, to ask newquestions, and seek new responses tothe emerging issues that are shapingthe industry.The Ecology of Development, Urban Land Institute 1997
  25. 25. 03 What Are We Learning?
  26. 26. #1:The Value ConundrumIs There Value inSustainability?
  27. 27. “….there has been a Responsibility ValuePremium in offices, apartments and retailcaused by higher NOIs and/or lower caprates. Higher NOI was from higher rents,occupancy, and/or lower expenses”Gary Pivo | Jeffrey FischerIncome, Value and Returns of Socially Responsible Office Properties
  28. 28.  Source: Johnson Reid
  29. 29. Biggest Impediment? No Value Lack of Enterprise Leadership Current Economics of Industry Too Many Conflicting Standards Lack of End User PremiumCapital Providers do not Ascribe Value Regulators Make it Too Difficult 0.0%   5.0%   10.0%   15.0%   20.0%   25.0%   30.0%   Source:  UrbanGreen  Index  V12.1  
  30. 30. Why Do It? To Add Value Branding Strategy Motivates our Team Required by Investors Entitlement StrategyRequired by Local Regulations Market Differentiator Improve Performance Add Value 0.0%   5.0%   10.0%   15.0%   20.0%   25.0%  Source:  UrbanGreen  Index  V12.1  
  31. 31. Why Do It? To Add Value Branding Strategy Motivates our Team Required by Investors Entitlement Strategy Hawaii NationalRequired by Local Regulations Market Differentiator Improve Performance Add Value 0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% 25.0% 30.0%
  32. 32. #2: The Regulatory Impediment:How do we MakeRight – Easy?
  33. 33. The Cost of Misaligned Regulations Envisioning   En+tlement   Execu+on   Diminished Sustainability + Increased Costs
  34. 34. Biggest Impediment to Greater Adoption? Lack of Enterprise Leadership   Current Economics of Industry     Hawaii   Too Many Conflicting Standards Na+onal   Lack of End User Premium Capital Providers do not Ascribe Value Regulators Make it Too Difficult 0.0%   5.0%   10.0%   15.0%   20.0%   25.0%   30.0%   35.0%   Source:UrbanGreen    Index  Volume  12.1  
  35. 35. New Solutions Requires New Models    Source:  Roadmap  for  the  Integrated  Design  Process,  BC  Green  Building  Roundtable  
  36. 36. #3: The Capital GapIs Reduced Risk in anUncertain FutureWorth Something?
  37. 37. Source:  CoreLogic/  Las  Vegas  Sun  
  38. 38. 04 Trends Worth Knowing
  39. 39. Some Common Themes Now   Then   Thriving     VS.     Sustainable   Healthy  Community     VS.   Planned  Community   Climate  Adapta+on   VS.   Climate  Change   Mobility  +  Accessibility   VS.   Level  of  Service   Sharing     VS.   Owning   Facilita+ng   VS.   Developing  
  40. 40. Trend One: Changing How We Think:SharingEverything
  41. 41. Going Beyond the BoxSource:  h@p://­‐how-­‐ci+es-­‐are-­‐greener/  
  42. 42. The Search for Something Deeper..
  43. 43. Sharing Everything – Regional Collaboration  
  44. 44. Sharing Everything – Partnerships  
  45. 45. Sharing Everything – Development Risk   HOPE SF Principles: 1.  Ensure No Loss of Public Housing 2. Create an Economically Integrated Community 3. Maximize the Creation of New Affordable Housing 4. Involve Residents in the Highest Levels of Participation in Entire Project 5. Provide Economic Opportunities Through the Rebuilding Process 6. Integrate Process with Neighborhood Improvement Revitalization Plans 7. Create Environmentally Sustainable and Accessible Communities 8. Build a Strong Sense of Community.
  46. 46.           Image  Credit:  Bridge  Housing  –  Van  Meter  Williams  Pollack  
  47. 47. Sharing Everything - Housing   h@p://  
  48. 48. Sharing Everything – Transportation  
  49. 49. Sharing Everything - Offices  h@p://  
  50. 50. Sharing Everything = Living Smallerh@p://  
  51. 51. Sharing Everything – Social Space Source:  Panoramic  Interests  
  52. 52. Trend Two: Communicating ResultsMore + ComplexInformation
  53. 53. Measuring Greenhouse Gas  
  54. 54. Measuring Building Performance  
  55. 55. Measuring Behavior “….  CycleTracks uses smartphone   GPS support to record users bicycle trip routes and times, and display maps of their rides, in order to help transportation planners make informed decisions about bicycle use in the community…..” h@p://  
  56. 56. Trend Three: Integrating What We DoSoft + SquishyMatters
  57. 57. “….we are not in the home buildingbusiness, we are in the human habitatbusiness.”John Knott, CEO Noisette
  58. 58. Emergence of the Food Desert  
  59. 59. Farmer’s Markets as one Solution  Source:  USDA  
  60. 60. CSA’s and Community Gardens  
  61. 61. Localizing the Food Connection  
  62. 62. Making Food an Experience  
  63. 63. Placemaking with Food  
  64. 64. Changing Lives with Food  
  65. 65. “UrbanGreen® is dedicated to real estate developmentas a constructive endeavor that positively shapes theurban, rural and human environment.”      Questions? Comments? |    
  66. 66. Protected Presentation ContentThe  following  presenta+on  was  prepared  by  UrbanGreen  ®  of  San  Francisco,  CA  for  presenta+on  at  the  Missouri  Area  Regional  Council  on  2  May  2012.    Permission  to  reuse  any  or  all  parts  of  this  presenta+on  should  be  requested  before  reproducing,  extrac+ng  or  copying  –  in  whole  or  in  part  –any  component  of  this  presenta+on.        Permission  can  be  obtained  by  contac+ng  Jim  Heid  at