Infill or Greenfield? Can we do Greenfield better? Learn the six universal truths about planned communities of the future, and the four locational variables that vary between regions.
3. Urban Development Institute | Alberta Canada 29 May 2013
Option 1: Greenfield
Ladera Ranch, CA
PROS
• Scale
of
Sites
• Pricing
/
Structure
• Natural
AmeniGes
CONS
• Approvals
• Biologic
Concerns
• Infrastructure
• TransportaGon
• Focused
OpposiGon
4. Urban Development Institute | Alberta Canada 29 May 2013
Option 2: Inner Ring Densification
Belamar - Lakewood CO
http://www.city-data.com/picfilesc/picc5931.php
PROS
• Infrastructure
• Proximity
to
Jobs
• Old
Urbanism
• Schools
and
Parks
CONS
• Land
Assembly
• Land
Cost
• NIMBY’s
• CongesGon
• Outdated
Codes
5. Urban Development Institute | Alberta Canada 29 May 2013
Option 3: Urban Infill
Capitol Riverfront – Washington DC
Image Credit:www.dcyards.com:
PROS
• Infrastructure
• Proximity
to
Jobs
• Transit
Access
• ExisGng
Urban
Character
CONS
• Infrastructure
• Schools
• Safety
|
Security
• ContaminaGon
• Market
Preference
7. #1 Can we do Greenfield better?
YES.
“Sprawl can be defined as
fragmented, low density,
economically homogenous,
land consumptive without
creating character or
connection”.
Greenfield
Development
Without
Sprawl,
2004
8. Urban Development Institute | Alberta Canada 29 May 2013
Hallmarks of the Planned Community
Hercules Waterfrtont, Hercules CA
§ Compact -
Higher net
density with
amenity
§ Diverse - Land
uses and types
of users
9. Urban Development Institute | Alberta Canada 29 May 2013
Hallmarks of the Planned Community
Celebration – Orlando, FL
§ Land efficient -
Conserve
significant
natural and
cultural features
§ Resource efficient
Energy, water,
materials
10. Urban Development Institute | Alberta Canada 29 May 2013
Hallmarks of the Planned Community
§ Vibrant - Richness of
place
§ Connectivity - Linked
open space, linked street
networks
11. Urban Development Institute | Alberta Canada 29 May 2013
Hallmarks of the Planned Community
Mission Bay, San Francisco CA
§ Shared Governance
§ Consistent Maintenance
§ Community Life
12. Why does right, feel so … wrong?
A Decade of New Home Sales 2001-2010
US Total1 8,580,000
%
Top Ten Planned Communities2 130,386 1.5%
Top Twenty Planned Communities3 187,687 2.2%
All Planned Communities (estimated)4 800,636 9.3%
IT’S NOT JUST A FEELING
Urban Development Institute | Alberta Canada
13. Urban Development Institute | Alberta Canada 29 May 2013
So the Issue is NOT Greenfield vs. Infill….
…..Its Sprawl vs. Planned Community
570,000
Units per
year
80,000
Units per
year
15. 2011
16 May 2013
“…the model
that got us
here, will not
take us into
the future”.
Urban Development Institute | Alberta Canada
16. Population
growth1 by
metropolitan
location
2000-2010
Inner Ring
Suburb
(+5.9 M)
Mature
Suburb
(+3.5 M)
=1,000,000
People
Emerging
Suburb
(+5.1 M)
Exurb
(+1.5 M)
Urban Core
(-.3 M)
1 Source: Robert Lang. Based on 416 counties in the 50 largest metro areas. These contain 53.7% of total U.S. population.
Infill or Greenfield?
BOTH.
19. Gen X
Trailing
Baby
Boomer
Leading
Baby
Boomer
20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
“Inner ring and urban core densification is temporal.
Once the reality of schools, housing costs and safety
become a priority for today's young professionals they will
move to the suburbs, just like every generation before
them.”
0%
Source:| UrbanGreen® Index Spring 2013
Percentage
of
respondents
that
selected
‘Disagree’
or
‘Strongly
Disagree’
20. Gen X
Trailing
Baby
Boomer
Leading
Baby
Boomer
20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
“The next generation of buyers and users have very
different values and will continue to find a way to live in
higher density, urban or inner ring centers, long after they
have families.”
0%
Percentage
of
respondents
that
selected
‘Agree’
or
‘Strongly
Agree’
Source:| UrbanGreen® Index Spring 2013
22. 0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
Access
to
Mixed
Uses
Access
to
Outdoor
Recrea2on
Good
Schools
Ease
of
Driving
Transporta2on
Alterna2ves
Housing
Affordability
Proximity
to
Work
Gen
X
Trailing
Baby
Boomer
Leading
Baby
Boomer
What do the generations want in their community?
Source:| UrbanGreen® Index Spring 2013
23. What will stay the same? What’s going to be different?
.
Planned
Community (PC)
Retrofit
Community (RC)
The
‘Attractant’
Suburban lifestyle with yards,
playgrounds and family life
The variety, diversity and energy that
comes with urbanity
The ‘Third
Place’
Create gathering places Leverage nearby high streets
The Footpath The forest trail and walking paths Walkable urbanism and connected
networks
The Transport Two cars and a garage to house them,
bicycling and walking as recreation
Car share, LRT, bicycles and walking for
commuting
The Shelter Diversity of detached options with some
higher density ‘lifestyle’ products but
largely private space
Small and compact with ‘community living
rooms’
Urban Development Institute | Alberta Canada
24. What will stay the same? What’s going to be different?
.
Planned
Community (PC)
Retrofit
Community (RC)
The
‘Attractant’
Suburban lifestyle with yards,
playgrounds and family life
The variety, diversity and energy that
comes with urbanity
The ‘Third
Place’
Create gathering places Leverage nearby high streets
The Footpath The forest trail and walking paths Walkable urbanism and connected
networks
The Transport Two cars and a garage to house them,
bicycling and walking as recreation
Car share, LRT, bicycles and walking for
commuting
The Shelter Diversity of detached options with some
higher density ‘lifestyle’ products but
largely private space
Small and compact with ‘community living
rooms’
Urban Development Institute | Alberta Canada
25. • AMENITY
• CONNECTIVITY
• DIVERSITY
• DENSITY
• QUALITY
THE SIX ‘TY’S.
Universal Truths
=
SUSTAINABLITY
26. Urban Development Institute | Alberta Canada 29 May 2013
Universal Truth #1
AMENITY
STREETS
PUBLIC
REALM
THIRD
PLACE
27.
28. Through
Zone
6’-‐
10’
U2lity
Zone
5’-‐6’
Building
+
Furnishings
Zone
5
-‐8’
Plenty
of
glass
Overhangs
Parking
as
buffer
Street
Trees
40. “…network of parks,
plazas and green places
offer breathing room.
And walkable urbanism
makes all these
connections easy,
whether headed to the
corner store or high-tech
headquarters”.
“…kids and adults alike
splash in the refreshing
waters of the Aquatic
and Falcon Clubs. The
25 miles of nature trails
let you get away from
it all without ever
leaving home”.
Suburban
Planned
Community
Inner
Ring
Retrofit
Community
Urban Development Institute | Alberta Canada
Locational Variable #3
THE VALUE PROPOSITION
41. Urban Development Institute | Alberta Canada 29 May 2013
Locational Variable #4
ROLE OF:
PPP | CFD | BID | HOA
42. CONCLUSION…Redefining Roles, Redefining Outcomes
New
Communities
Retrofit
Communities
Infill
Communities
RIVERSIDE RESTON TOWN CENTER RINCON HILL
YEAR 1869 1988 2005+
SIZE (ACRES) 1600 460 51
POPULATION 9,000 7,500 10,000
CRAFTING
COMMUNITY
Create
Village Center
Add
Urban Center
Leverage
Urban Core
PPP ROLES
Be market
knowledgable.
Bring civic facilties.
Assist with land
assembly. Lead
approvals past
NIMBY’s
Create vision.
Gain buy in.
Share financial
risks
SUSTAINABIILTY
GATEWAY
Stormwater Jobs Housing Transportation
So now we move to Part II of our conversation. This section is intended to provide a synthesis of what was heard through our deliberations, followed by a real time discussion with industry leaders. To set the stage for our discussion with industry leaders, I want to share some of the issues and more provocative ideas, synthesized from our past work. This is meant to provide both a snapshot of the work to date, while creating a launchpad for the panel conversation. While we started our process with a series of questions about what planned communities would look like in the future, the underlying, unstated question that filled our room on that first day was
But it was quickly agreed throughout our work that with continued growth of the nation, PC’s can still provide a valuable solution to future demand for housing.
Andits not just a feeling. Based on my review of a decade of data compiled from RCLCo’s annual survey of planned communities , the better alternative of development – Planned Communities – is a still a very small drop in the bucket of all new residential development.
Given the political, financial and societal issues confronting the development of large scale projects, was the planned community past its prime?The old model was strangled at the edge of feasibility before the downturn – Brent Harrington
Nowthe speculation is over. Newdata mined from the 2010 census presented by Robert Lang, at our July Think Tank illustrated that both side were right.Rather than arguing about greenfield or infill, we should be debating how to get planned communities to be a bigger part of the total development equation. How do we adapt what we do best to meet the needs of a variety of settings ?….to demonstrate that what we have learned from decades of work in the greenfield , can also be relevant to the needs and desires of an increasingly segmented population? This would suggest that planned community of the future could be…
This debate goes back to the early 2000’s and was part of the research undertaken by Don Piper and documented in my publication for ULI entitled ‘ Greenfield development without sprawl.’ The primary conclusion - summed up in this diagram – was that market and development forces were going to ensure that new development would continue to be largely in the Greenfield. But that was largely speculation……
So what does it all mean for the Future of the Planned Community?It means a bright future, if we so choose. And while one man’s opinion, it seems like the more immediate opportunities and value we can offer will be occuring in the retrofit and infill setting in the near future, but there will continue to be great opportunity in the new community environment if we can get our message out re: sprawl vs. planned community.There are multiple new opportunities to take what we have learned over decades of refining the Planned Community model, and apply it to new settings, new challenges and for new households.This is what will continue to allow some in our industry to innovate and excel.But realizing this opportunity cannot happen if we just sit back and wait. We need to actively embrace the new challenges, adopt new strategies, adapt new techniques and combine the best of what we have done with bold new ideas.And with that call to action fresh in your mind, I’m going to ask my panelists to join me on the stage for a conversation about these ideas and how we can grab hold of this opportunity.
More than simply meeting the future demand for housing, planned communities provide a superior alternative to Sprawl. When you consider the all the benefits of the planned community over the traditional, ad hoc builder driven subdivision, you have to wonder…..
More than simply meeting the future demand for housing, planned communities provide a superior alternative to Sprawl. When you consider the all the benefits of the planned community over the traditional, ad hoc builder driven subdivision, you have to wonder…..
More than simply meeting the future demand for housing, planned communities provide a superior alternative to Sprawl. When you consider the all the benefits of the planned community over the traditional, ad hoc builder driven subdivision, you have to wonder…..
More than simply meeting the future demand for housing, planned communities provide a superior alternative to Sprawl. When you consider the all the benefits of the planned community over the traditional, ad hoc builder driven subdivision, you have to wonder…..
But whatis changing is how people find personal fulfillment. For a number of reasons, people are seeking meaning more than materialism.Walker talked about this next decade’s consumer seeking the three ‘C’s’ – caution, curation and contentment. In the decade past our industry adopted the material approach - entering an ‘arms race’ of clubshouses, parks and bigger and bigger toys.But in an era of caution, big community facilities and the recognized expense of maintaining those toys will be a significant part of a buyer value analysis. But people will still want to be connected to one another, and that would suggest that the planned community of the next decade will be more about software than hardware. In the future developers and their planners, marketing staff and sociologists – yes I said sociologists – will have to reate new channels of connections that go beyond real estate.
More than simply meeting the future demand for housing, planned communities provide a superior alternative to Sprawl. When you consider the all the benefits of the planned community over the traditional, ad hoc builder driven subdivision, you have to wonder…..
Nowthe speculation is over. Newdata mined from the 2010 census presented by Robert Lang, at our July Think Tank illustrated that both side were right.Rather than arguing about greenfield or infill, we should be debating how to get planned communities to be a bigger part of the total development equation. How do we adapt what we do best to meet the needs of a variety of settings ?….to demonstrate that what we have learned from decades of work in the greenfield , can also be relevant to the needs and desires of an increasingly segmented population? This would suggest that planned community of the future could be…
Nowthe speculation is over. Newdata mined from the 2010 census presented by Robert Lang, at our July Think Tank illustrated that both side were right.Rather than arguing about greenfield or infill, we should be debating how to get planned communities to be a bigger part of the total development equation. How do we adapt what we do best to meet the needs of a variety of settings ?….to demonstrate that what we have learned from decades of work in the greenfield , can also be relevant to the needs and desires of an increasingly segmented population? This would suggest that planned community of the future could be…
But it was quickly agreed throughout our work that with continued growth of the nation, PC’s can still provide a valuable solution to future demand for housing.
Nowthe speculation is over. Newdata mined from the 2010 census presented by Robert Lang, at our July Think Tank illustrated that both side were right.Rather than arguing about greenfield or infill, we should be debating how to get planned communities to be a bigger part of the total development equation. How do we adapt what we do best to meet the needs of a variety of settings ?….to demonstrate that what we have learned from decades of work in the greenfield , can also be relevant to the needs and desires of an increasingly segmented population? This would suggest that planned community of the future could be…
Nowthe speculation is over. Newdata mined from the 2010 census presented by Robert Lang, at our July Think Tank illustrated that both side were right.Rather than arguing about greenfield or infill, we should be debating how to get planned communities to be a bigger part of the total development equation. How do we adapt what we do best to meet the needs of a variety of settings ?….to demonstrate that what we have learned from decades of work in the greenfield , can also be relevant to the needs and desires of an increasingly segmented population? This would suggest that planned community of the future could be…
But perhaps even more important is the idea that As some meaningful percentage of households choose an inner ring or urban core setting to live, the planned community strategy could be the best approach to regenerating these areas, quickly and at scale.