2014 Utzon lecture Series: An Ageing City: Are We Prepared? by Professor Bruce Judd

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The Utzon Lecture Series focuses on the presentation of ideas from leading contributors of international significance in the design, delivery and management of the built environment.

Population ageing is an international phenomenon also occurring in Australia with major social and economic impacts. This lecture will explore its implications for the built environment drawing on the findings of two recent research projects on older home owners and downsizing among older Australians.

Bruce Judd is Professor and Director of the recently established Australian School of Architecture and Design (ASA+D) at UNSW. He has a BArch(hons) and PhD in Architecture and has taught in the Architecture and Urban Design programs at UNSW for over 30 years.

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  • Question: Is this about ageing cities or ageing people?

    Answer: Its really about ageing people in the city, not ageing buildings or infrastructure

    So if you are expecting a talk on old buildings and infrastructure, perhaps you best leave now, and I apologise

    Problem in preparing this lecture: How to make an interesting lecture about population ageing when ageing is something most of us want to avoid.
  • First an overview of where we are heading tonight…
  • I will be drawing on two AHURI funded studies that I have led recently…

    I would like to recognise the contribution of my co-researchers from City Futures and beyond who are listed here.

    Without them these projects would not have been possible
  • Before we proceed further an important question is what do we mean by older?

    There are various chronological thresholds used for various purposes….

    But a fair question is should it be chronologically, attitudinally, lifestyle or ability based?

    Whichever of these approaches are more valid, it is important to recognise that older people are an extremely diverse group

    So generalisations are dangerous

    To illustrate my point, these two people are my parents – now 94 years of age, still living independently without assistance, still involved in the community, my father still plays golf three times a week. They are undoubtedly the exception, and there are people 20 or 30 years younger who may not be able to do what they do.
  • Nowdays we see ageing differently than before.

    In the post war period there has been some major shifts in gerontological theory that have impacted on how we regard ageing.

    We have moved on from regarding ageing as a purely biological phenomenon to theories that incorporate psychological and social perspectives.

    We have moved beyond the early disengagement theory (which focussed on the progressive disengagement of older people from society) to activity theory and successful ageing which posit that remaining active and taking on new roles can maintain morale and wellbeing in older age.

    Ecological theories of ageing have emphasised the importance of the social and physical environment in the ageing process

    And we also have political economy, feminist and critical theories of ageing that deal with power relationships, gender inequality, and the impact of globalisation on the lives of older people

    These changes have also flowed into policy on ageing which now emphasises……
  • Ageing is an international phenomenon

    This graph based on UN data shows 2010 proportions of the population 65 and projected growth over 50 years to 2060

    In terms of 2010 data you can see that Australia sits in the lower third (around 14%) expected to increase to just under 25% by 2060

    This is comparable with the USA, a little less than the UK and most of Europe which is around 16-17%, and a lot less that the world leader Japan at around 24%

    However in terms of overall growth in population ageing by 2060 we are close to the bottom – still under 25% but a little above where Japan is at present
  • When you look at the 85 and over population, we move a bit further up the list for 2060 projections, but are still in the bottom third.

    You can see that the growth in 85 and over is much more substantial than in the 65+ age group in all countries.

    Australia’s 85+ triples in 50 years, whereas Japan’s more than quadruples

    It is this that causes much concern about the social and economic impact of population ageing

    And it has implications for housing, urban planning and infrastructure
  • It is interesting to look at global ageing spatially

    This map from the United Nations Population Fund

    It shows population growth of people 60 and over between 2012 and 2050 (a 38 year period)

    So a slightly different age and time frame than the previous graphs

    It shows the dramatic ageing over this period in the northern hemisphere

    Particularly Canada, Europe, Russia and China

    Australia is also projected here to have at least a quarter of its population 60 and over by 2050, along with the USA, Brazil and Argentina
  • Population ageing is not just a global problem, it is also an urban problem

    The Global Cities Indicators Facility at the University of Toronto has just put out their ‘Global Policy Snapshot’ for 2013

    These figures come from their report entitled ‘Cities and Ageing’…..
  • The key contributing factors to population ageing are well known

    Low fertility – associated with birth control, female education and participation in the workforce

    Low death rates due to advances in medical science and health education

    But an important contributing factor at present is the baby boom generation (born 1946-1964) coming in to older age

    This accelerates population ageing somewhat from 2011 for twenty years or so.
  • And the baby boomers are a different kettle of fish from previous generations

    I know because I am one of them – born in 1946, on the crest of the wave as it were. And so are many of you!

    We are coming into older age with some very different attitudes and values than previous generations

    Quine & Carter undertook an extensive literature review in 2006 and came up with likely characteristics, some of which we baby boomers should not be all that proud of

    You can see from this list that they are more likely than previous generations to be age-deniers, self focused, demanding, sceptical, individualistic and more active in retirement

    If you are a baby boomer, I suspect you could tick some, of those boxes!

    These traits have implications for how we relate to the built environment

  • In terms of what this means for housing:
    More likely to live independently

    To be active in retirement

    To not want to live in retirement villages with their peers

    But to maintain their existing social networks

    And require housing that is modified, with specialised assistive technology and live in age-friendly neighbourhoods

    Baby boomers are known for their high consumption, and so its not surprising that in the UK they have the highest carbon foot print of any age cohort

    Ironically, as they age they will become one of the most vulnerable groups to the impacts of climate change

  • So what does population ageing in Australia look like over the remainder of this century?

    This graph shows growth in the projected growth in the percentage of the 65+ and 85+population in Australia between 2012 and 2100

    We can see that the % of those 65+ rises from 14.2% to 23.4% mid century (63% growth), and then on to nearly 30% (or 104% growth) by the end of the century

    And 85+ more than doubles from 2.1 to 5.1% by mid century and then to a whopping 9.3% by 2100

    If we took it from the census years 2001 to 2051 the % of 65+ is expected to almost double, and 85+ to quadruple

    So 85+ is increasing at roughly twice the rate for 65+

    This has important social and economic implications
  • But what about our cities, how do they measure up in terms of population ageing?

    This graph from the last Major Cities Unit report looks at differences in population ageing amongst Australian capital cities

    This time (just to confuse you) from 2008-2056 (a little under 50 years)

    The dark blue bar represents 2008, the orange and light blue high and low projections respectively

    Australia is at the top around 13% in 2008 rising to the low to mid 20s by 2056

    Unsurprisingly, the next two Adelaide and Hobart are the oldest and are expected to continue to be so

    Darwin (at the bottom) stands out as the youngest, and is expected to remain so

    In 2008 Sydney, Perth and Melbourne were quite similar, and Brisbane a little younger

    Canberra is younger in 2008, but catches up in the 2056 projections

    The basic message is that in the worst case scenario the aged population 65+ of many Australian cities could close to double

    The implications of this for housing and urban environments is recognised in the report (READ QUOTE)
  • One of the major concerns of government about population ageing hinges on what is called the dependency ratio

    This is the proportion of working age people to those 65 and over

    As you can see in this Productivity Commission graph, this has been reducing dramatically in the last four decades or so

    The increased health and aged care needs will have to be paid for by a dwindling number of taxpayers

    In 2010 there were 5 tax payers for each person 65 and over, by mid century in is likely to be nearly half that

    This is something of a concern for policy makers
  • It also has economic consequences

    It was something of a wake-up call for the government when former Liberal Treasurer Peter Costello commissioned the first Intergenerational Report as part of the 2002-03 budget papers

    They plotted the graph you can see here which represents the ratio of government revenue to expenditure

    It shows that without any changes to policy settings the budget would go into deficit by 2015 and blow out to 5% of GDP by 2041-42

    They calculated that this would require an additional $87 billion in taxes.

    Now they did not anticipate the Global Financial Crisis, the Economic Stimulus Package or the Mining Boom, so this did not turn out to be accurate

    But never the less it did sharpen the attention of the Government on addressing population ageing
  • Of course this has brought the alarmists and doomsday purveyors out of the woodwork

    The term ‘silver tsunami’ was coined and has been used regularly in the popular press – particularly in the UK.

    There have been dire predictions from politicians and in the popular press about the possible consequences

    Fears of ‘intergenerational warfare’, ‘social and political upheaval’, ‘fiscal crisis’ and even ‘military aggression’ have been touted

    Giving inspiration to the ever opportunistic cartoonists

    The guy on the beach looks uncannily like Premier Barry O’Farrell
  • An example of this comes from the Washington Post in 2009

    Notice the emotive language:

    Hyperaging (we had hyperdensity at the last Utzon lecture)
    Fiscal crisis
    Ugly political battles
    Demographic storms
    Overwhelming age waves
    Explosions of youth
    Social and political upheaval
    Military agression
  • Beautifully captured somewhat tongue in cheek in this cartoon by Shem Cohen
  • Of course while such alarmism is exaggerated and unwarranted, there are legitimate concerns about generational inequities arising from the reducing dependency ratio

    Just who are the biggest losers? The older, or the younger generations?

    These are important policy questions

    Organisations such as the London-based Intergenerational Foundation have emhasised the likelihood of an “increasingly heavy burden on younger future generations” who are seen as “losing out disproportionately to older, wealthier cohorts.”

    Again the cartoonists capture these fears cleverly.
  • However, other more moderate, and better informed, voices counter the extremes of the alarmists

    Michael Coory – Medical Epidemiologist, Queensland Health writes in the Medical Journal of Australia that “population ageing will only have a limited effect on healthcare costs” and that “there is no evidence that population ageing will cause chaos for our health system.”

    Likewise the late Ellen Gee, Professor Department Chair of Sociology and Anthropology at Simon Fraser University in Canada wrote the International Journal of Medical Epidemiology that the “expectation of unsustainable costs” was “highly unlikely” and that “population ageing is not particularly influential for future public health costs.”
  • Katherine Betts, recently retired Sociologist and population growth researcher from Swinburne University makes the point that “the only way to return to the youthful age structure of the past is by having large families and dying young.” Both things we don’t want to do.

    So we just have to get on with it, accept that population ageing is here and adjust to it.
  • So the government has got on with it in various ways including:

    The superannuation guarantee
    Tax exemptions for self-funded retirees
    Increasing the employer contributions to superannuation from 9 to 12%
    Gradually increasing the pension age from the current 65 to 67 between 2017 and 2023
    The $5,000 baby bonus (which seems to have worked) to offset population ageing
    The recent ‘Housing Help for Seniors Pilot Scheme’ which quarantines $200,000 of the proceeds of sale to assist in moving/downsizing

    Four state Governments have introduced concessions or exemptions from stamp duty for older people moving (NSW terminated theirs)

    On the social policy front a major strategy has been to encourage and support ageing in place through:

    Promoting independence and active/healthy ageing
    Increasing levels of community care

  • This table outlines increases in community care options to support ageing in place over the last 30 years

    Starting with the Home and Community Care program in 1985 to provide assistance to older people in the home, and home modifications

    To more intensive care for people with high care needs via Community Options Projects

    To Community Aged Care Packages with tailored aged care in the home specifically for older people – with capped fees

    To EACH and EACH-D programs introduced in the late 80s for frail aged people and those with dementia

    And the recent Living Longer Living Better Reforms which have folded those previous schemes into a suite of Home Care Packages with four levels of care with two levels of community care and low and high residential care
  • What are the implications of population ageing and these social and economic policy shifts for the built environment

    Ageing in place is very well but in what kind of place?

    In the family home? If so how suitable is the existing housing stock for ageing in place?
    If not, then there are only two choices – modify, or move.
    If moving, what to?
    What kind of housing types?
    What sizes of dwellings?
    How many storeys?
    How accessible?
    How easy to maintain?

    But it’s not just about the dwelling. Its one thing to have an appropriate dwelling, another to be able to participate in the community

    Provision and convenience of access to services
    Housing options in relation to services and transport
    Age-friendly neighbourhood design and transport infrastructure

  • The major international policy initiative is the World Health Organisations Age Friendly Cities (later renamed Age Friendly Environments) established in 2007 in the wake of a large international conference on ageing

    They published guidelines on what constitutes an age-friendly city and invited cities to join an the Age Friendly Cities Network. To qualify you had to commit to adopting the principles in the Age Friendly Cities guide

    These principles were articulated under the 8 themes listed.

    33 cities initially joined the network, but only 2 from Australia – Melbourne and Melville in suburban Perth.

    However this document has inspired many of the local government ageing projects in Australia.
  • So what policy developments have taken place in Australia in regard to age-friendly housing, planning and infrastructure?

    Well quite a bit over the years

    I won’t expect you to read all of these but you can see a steady build up from Anna Howe’s contribution to the National Housing Strategy in the early 1990s to........
  • More recently we have had the….

    National Dialouge on Unversal Design – convened by the then Parliamentary Secretary for Disability and Children’s services (now opposition leader) Bill Shorten,

    He gathered a group of stakeholders together from various government, industry and peak bodies who came up with a Strategic Plan for implementation of universal housing design aspiring to 100% compliance by 2020.

    In 2011 Livable Housing Australia was established to implement the plan – who in 2012 released their Livable Housing Design Guidelines – a voluntary standard for universal design with three levels of performance/accreditation – Silver, Gold and Platinum, progressively stepping up the requirements

    In the meantime (in 2010) the Access to Premises Standards had been extended to housing for the first time – to class 2 (apartment buildings), a small step for man, but not a large step for mankind. It provides access to one level of sole occupancy units.

    Finally in 2013 – the Human Rights Commission

  • There have also been state government initiatives

    I will focus here on NSW – with one example from Western Australia

    SEPP 5 and its successors SEPP (Seniors living) and SEPP (Housing for Seniors or People with Disabilities)
    The companion Seniors Living Policy Urban Design Guidelines for Infill Development to the 2004 SEPP amendments
    Landcom’s (now Urban Growth NSW) 2007 Universal Housing Guidelines and Built Form Guidelines which includes a section on Planning for All Ages
    And most recently the NSW Ageing Strategy, a whole of government approach to be delivered in partnership with the private sector with a commitment to creating age-friendly local communities, improving housing choice, monitoring supply and financial assistance for older people moving to more appropriate accommodation.
  • Then there are some important peak body initiatives…..


  • So lets look at the households and housing of older Australians

    The following graphs are for 65+ at the 2011 Census

    Note 2:1 ratio of 2 to single person households for 65+

    84% of 65+ either 1 or 2 people

    87% of 85+ either 1 or 2 people
  • 65+ Mostly in separate houses

    Half of 85+ remain in separate houses

    Similar proportions in attached and apartment housing

    Increase in non-private dwellings for 85+
  • Close to half of both in 3 bedroom

    85+ higher in 2 bedroom (possibly retirement villages)
  • Two thirds of 65+ are outright owners

    Three quarters (76%) of 65+ home owners

    Still nearly half of 85+ outright owners

    Slightly over half (52%) of 85+ home owners

    Rental very low

  • The propensity of older 1 or 2 person households living in larger detached dwellings has led to the view that older people underutilise their dwellings

    This has been referred to as the mismatch argument – ie that there is a mismatch between older households and their housing

    It is argued that this represents an inefficient use of the housing stock

    It implies that older people should be encouraged to move to smaller dwellings thus releasing their larger dwellings into the market for younger, larger families – thus improving the efficient use of the housing stock

    In Australia there is an official measure of housing occupancy, a modified version of the Canadian National Occupancy Standard

    It is basically a formula that equates no of people to number of bedrooms, with some nuancing around the ages and gender of children
  • Aim of the study: to understand how older home owners regarded and utilised their housing, land and neighbourhood. And to seek their views on more efficient alternatives
  • One reason is temporary residents
  • Another reason is alternative uses of bedrooms
  • Even additional living rooms (family rooms and rumpus rooms) were used for alternative purposes

    Surplus space in garages was also used for other purposes
  • WE also looked at how older homeowners utilised their neighbourhood

    Note: Dark bars daily-weekly, light bars monthly-yearly

    Most common daily/weekly activities are….

    Most common monthly/yearly activities are medical appointments, cultural activities and dining out (more than 50%)

    So we know from this how people use their neighbourhood and with what frequency
  • In the interviews we asked them about barriers to participating in their neighbourhood

    This is what they identified…..
  • This is not to say that all suburbs or regional towns have not done well

    Some towns, like Gunnedah, have put a lot of effort into creating town centres that are age-friendly
  • But others (that shall remain nameless) certainly have not

    This unnamed town had many access problems for older people including:

    Poor quality and discontinuous paths of travel

    Public buildings with step access and no ramp alternatives
  • In summary
  • This led naturally to our second study of downsizing

    If the evidence is that most older people stay put, what about those who do move and/or downsize

    Questions…..

  • An analysis of Census Data revealed that 18% of Australians 50+ had moved in the 5 years between the 2006 and 2011 Censuses

    Our survey revealed that 50% of respondents who had moved during this same period, had actually downsized, and the other 50% had moved without downsizing

    Applying the same proportion to the Australian population who had moved would mean that only 9% of the total population 50 and over had downsized.

    What did they move into?.....
  • Here’s what housing types they moved into

    The dark bar represents their housing before the last moved

    The light bars what they moved into

    A fairly dramatic drop in separate houses, and a corresponding increase in attached housing and apartment living

    Some of this would be in retirement villages

  • You can see here the change in number of bedrooms

    Mostly 4+ before

    Completely absent after – with the biggest increase in 2 bedrooms, but also an increase in 3 bedrooms

    This indicates that many older people are choosing houses that are smaller, but not too small.
  • We asked them to estimate the floor area in their dwelling as well

    You can see that the floor areas follow a very similar pattern
  • So what were the circumstances that led to them downsizing?

    Lifestyle preference the most common motivation
    Move to a lifestyle location (eg coastal)
    Move to accommodation that makes it easier to travel (eg. Apartment, manufactured home estate, mobile home)
    Less maintenance to free up time for other activities

    Maintenance also important

    Demographic and other shocks also feature in the reasons of many (light grey bars). Children leaving home and negative



    Financial difficulties fairly low down the order – financial gain higher (orange bars)

    This suggests that relocating in later life for older home owners is primarily lifestyle and maintenance driven
  • We asked them where they got advice and assistance from in the downsizing process

    This was mostly from family, friends and real estate agents
  • When asked what the main considerations were in looking for their new home:

    The highest priorities were less maintenance, dwelling size and lifestyle improvement

    Location was also important (see the light bars) particularly proximity to shops, public transport and health services

    But also proximity to family and friends

    Surprisingly economic matters were fairly low down the order of priorities (Orange bars)

  • In the survey we asked them how difficult they found the process

    Close to three quarters had found it easy or very easy

    And a quarter had found it either difficult or very difficult

    This graph shows the difficulties they encountered

    This gives us some clues as to what some of the barriers to downsizing might be

    Three stand out as the most important – availability, affordability and locatonal suitability (dark bars)

    Following these are other locational difficulties (light bars)

    Again financial difficulties were a problem for only a few
  • Finally, in the survey we asked them how satisfied they were with the dwelling they had moved into.

    90% were either satisfied or very satisfied, leaving only 10% dissatisfied or very dissatisfied

    When we asked those who were dissatisfied why, the reasons hinged largely around building defects and management issues, obviously associated with managed housing options such as strata title units and retirement villages

    However affordability was also a problem for many, along with unexpected costs including monthly fees in strata developments and
  • For this project we also ran three policy forums in NSW, Victoria and South Australia

    These included representatives from government, peak bodies, community organisations and the housing industry

    One of the things we asked them to do was to identify the barriers and policy options that might help to overcome these

    Their perceptions are summarised on this table

    Three main types of barriers… explain



  • On the housing front there has been some welcome progress with the introduction of the Access to Premises standards for apartment buildings.

    While the work of the National Dialogue on Universal Housing Design and Livable Housing Australia in developing the Livable Housing Guidelines is to be applauded, it is unlikely that their target of 100% of new housing at silver level will be met by 2020, unless mandated as part of the Building Code of Australia.

    We need more innovation from the housing industry in developing housing types that will be attractive for older people to want to downsize into. Its not just about accessibility, but about size and configuration of the housing, and the ability to have a small garden

    There needs to be less emphasis on cohort living and more on housing for all ages in the general community. This will be increasingly important as the baby boomer generation ages

    On the planning and urban design front:

    We need planning and development controls that encourage housing types suitable for older people closte to amenties and services

    While there has been some very good initiatives at local government level, these are inconsistent and fragmented. There is a need for national urban design standards that are inclusive of the needs of older people. This will be important if we are to develop the kind of neighourhoods suitable for an ageing population. We don’t need yet another set of specialised urban design guidelines but ‘good design’ guidelines that are inclusive of the needs of an ageing population.

    And finally regarding infrastructure

    Despite the introduction of the Disability Standards for Public Transport, there are still many transport facilities that are not age friendly. The slow roll out over 30 years is unlikely to keep pace with population ageing and reqwuires a review to accellerate the time frames.
  • As a postcript, in the 1960s in Rockdale and Kogarah an interesting housing type developed, known as Villa homes. These were small groups of single storey dwellings (typicially 5 or 6) on a redeveloped suburban allotment. The aerial photo from Google Earch shows an example of these – some on double allotments.

    I studied these when I did my PhD and discovered that they were ideal for older people to downsize into.

    They were smaller but not too small, single level, with a small garden.

    They were affordable because they were permitted in low density residential zones, using convenional cottage construction.

    They were not very well designed and not accessible, but di d work well for many older people at the time.

    I wonder if they might represent a model that could be useful today – albeit with better quality and universal design.
  • Jorn Utzon, after whom this lecture series is named is famous for two housing developments with similar characteristics, though very well designed.

    The Kingo Houses in Elsinore, Denmark

    Describe….


  • The second and slightly later Utzon example is the Fredensborg Housing.

    This was undertaken for a company that wished to provide housing for retired international workers

    Interestingly this project was designed at a very similar time as the earlier examples of Villa Homes were being constructed in Rockdale and Kogarah

    Perhaps these two superb examples could inspire greater innovation in the provision of housing and neighbourhoods for an ageing population in Australia
  • 2014 Utzon lecture Series: An Ageing City: Are We Prepared? by Professor Bruce Judd

    1. 1. Australian School of Architecture & Design The Ageing City: Are We Prepared? Prof Bruce Judd, Director ASA+D Photo: Martin Godwin, The Guardian http://www.theguardian.com/business/2013/feb/08/retailers-older-shoppers-studyPhoto: http://shrewsburyurc.co.uk/wp/wp-content/uploads/
    2. 2. Overview  Population ageing  Economic and Social Implications  Built Environment Implications  Housing  Urban Planning & Design  Infrastructure  Policy developments  Housing options and choices of older people  Housing and neighbourhood utilisation  Downsizing in later life  Are we prepared?
    3. 3. Two AHURI Funded Studies  Dwelling, Land and Neighbourhood Use by Older Home Owners (2010) (co-funded by DoHA*) With Diana Olsberg, Joanne Quinn, Lucy Groenhart & Oya Demirbilek  Downsizing Amongst Older Australians (2014) With Edgar Liu, Hazel Easthope, Laura Davy & Catherine Bridge * Commonwealth Department of Health and Ageing
    4. 4. Who is ‘Older’?  What do we mean by ‘older’?  65+ Age pension eligibility (increasing from 65-67)?  60+ Eligibility for Senior’s Card?  55+ Empty nesters/pre-retirees?  Should it be:  Chronologically based?  Attitudinally based?  Lifestyle based?  Ability based?  Diversity  Older people are a very diverse group  Generalisations are dangerous Photo: Bruce Judd
    5. 5. Ageing is Not What it Used to Be  Shifts in Gerontological Theory  From biological to biopsychosocial theories of ageing  From ‘Disengagement Theory’ to ‘Activity Theory’ and ‘Successful Ageing’  To ecological theories of ageing that consider the social and physical environment  To Political Economy, Feminist and Critical Theories of ageing  Shifts in Policy Emphasis  Human rights and empowerment  Active, positive and healthy ageing  Independence  Ageing in place  Participation in the community
    6. 6. Global Population Ageing: 65+Shareofpopulation(%) Japan Portugal Spain Germany Italy Poland Singapore Greece Austria China Netherlands Finland Belgium Iceland France UK Canada Switzerland Luxembourg Ireland NewZealand Sweden Turkey Mexico Norway Denmark Australia US Malaysia Projected share of population aged 65+ years 40 2010 Change from 2010 to 2060 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 Source: United Nations (2013) Source: Productivity Commission, 2013
    7. 7. Shareofpopulation(%) Japan Italy Spain Portugal Germany Singapore Greece France Austria Netherlands Belgium Switzerland Finland UK Canada Iceland NewZealand Luxembourg Sweden Poland Australia Ireland Norway Denmark Mexico US Turkey China Malaysia Projected share of population aged 85+ years 15 2010 Change from 2010 to 2060 12 9 6 3 0 Source: United Nations, 2013 Global Population Ageing: 85+ Source: Productivity Commission, 2013
    8. 8. Ageing Map of the World Percentage aged 60 years or over 0-9 10-19 20-24 25-29 30 or over No data 2012 2050 Source: UNPF and Help Age International, 2012
    9. 9. Ageing – An Urban Problem  Urbanisation  10% of the worlds population lived in cities in 1900  53% live in cities today  70% are estimated to live in cities by 2050 (GCIF, 2013)  Global 65+ Population Growth  2010 = 522 million  2050 = 1,475 million  An increase of 183% (GCIF, 2013)  Australia  171% increase from 2010-2050  An additional 7 million 65+ (GCIF, 2013)  Most of the population ageing will take place in cities
    10. 10. Contributing Factors  Low fertility rates  Birth control  Female education  Female workforce participation  Low death rates  Increasing longevity  Advances in medical science  Health education (eg smoking and other risks)  Post-war baby-boom generation entering older age  Born 1946 to 1964  Accelerates population ageing from early to mid 21stC
    11. 11. Baby Boomers Attitudes & Values  “In retirement boomers may:  refuse to accept that they are ‘old’  be more ethnically heterogeneous,  more selfish, socially polarised, demanding and belligerent  less accepting, trusting and conforming than their parents’ generation  prioritise being in control, freedom of expression and individuality  economically conservative but socially moderate swinging voters  expect more from retirement than their parents’ generation” (Quine & Carter, 2006:4) http://www.motorcycleriderbasics.com
    12. 12. Baby Boomers & Housing  More likely than previous generations to:  Live independently (not with children or in institutions)  Continue to be active  Live in intergenerational communities  Retaining their existing social networks  Live alone due to higher levels of divorce and separation  Require modified housing  Require specialist services, technology and design, and  Require age-friendly infrastructure and built environment (Quine & Carter, 2006)  Carbon Footprint  Largest carbon footprint of any age cohort (Haq et al 2007)
    13. 13. 14.2 16.4 19.4 21.6 23.2 25.0 28.9 1.9 2.1 2.7 4.0 5.1 5.9 9.3 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 2012 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2100 Percentage Year 65+ 85+ Population Ageing Australia, 2012-2100 Source: Productivity Commission 2013
    14. 14. Population Ageing in Australian Cities Source: Major Cities Unit, 2013 Proportion of population aged 65 and over in capital cities, 2008 and 2056 (low and high population ageing projections) “As the population ages, the suitability and affordability of housing for older people will become increasingly important for govern- ments. …the degree to which ‘ageing in place’ is an option for older people depends on the suitability of the design features of their dwelling and the neighbourhood, as well as the avail- ability of services.” Major Cities Unit, 2103
    15. 15. Social and Economic Implications  Dependency Ratio  Number of working age people to those aged 65 and over  Increasing need for health and aged care support services  Economic Impact  Reduced Tax Revenue  Increased Expenditure  Age pension  Health  Aged care 7.5 5.0 2.7 0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 1970 2010 2050 Dependency Ratio 1970-2050 Source: Productivity Commission 2013
    16. 16. The Fiscal Gap (Commonwealth revenue to spending)  Large budget blowout predicted by 2041/2042  5% of GDP  $87 billion in additional taxes needed (IGR, 2002) 2002 Treasury Predictions 2015 Source: Australian Treasury, Intergenerational Report, 2002
    17. 17. The Alarmists  Dire Predictions  ‘The Silver Tsunami’  Intergenerational warfare  Overwhelmed social services  Cuts to benefits  Social and political upheaval  Fiscal crisis due to declining tax earnings  Declining after tax earnings  Military aggression Cartoon: Graham Mackay http://mackaycartoons.net/tag/tsunami/
    18. 18. Prophets of Doom The World Won’t Be Aging Gracefully. Just the Opposite For the world's wealthy nations, the 2020s are set to be a decade of hyperaging and population decline. Many countries will experience fiscal crisis, economic stagnation and ugly political battles over entitlements and immigration. Meanwhile, poor countries will be buffeted by their own demographic storms. Some will be overwhelmed by massive age waves that they can't afford, while others will be whipsawed by new explosions of youth whose aspirations they cannot satisfy. The risk of social and political upheaval and military aggression will grow throughout the developing world -- even as the developed world's capacity to deal with these threats weakens (Neil Howe and Richard Jackson, The Washington Post, Jan 4, 2009)
    19. 19. Watch out! They’re coming to get you! Cartoon by Shem Cohen: http://cartoonsnap.com/blogspot
    20. 20. Intergenerational Inequity Whilst increasing longevity is to be welcomed, our changing demographic and expectations of entitlement are placing increasingly heavy burdens on younger and future generations. From housing, health and education to employment, taxation, pensions voting, spending, transport and environmental degradation, younger generations are under increasing pressure to maintain the intergenerational compact whilst losing out disproportionately to older, wealthier cohorts. (Intergenerational Foundation, UK, 2012) Cartoon: Ingram Pinn, Financial Times,: http://thefinanser.co.ukCartoon: Cox and Forkum, CoxAndForkum.com
    21. 21. The Case Against Alarmism The available evidence indicates that population ageing will only have a limited effect on healthcare costs, and there is no evidence that population ageing will cause chaos for our health system. Policy making in Australia would be improved if this was more widely acknowledged. (Coory, 2004) To varying degrees, all western countries are retrenching in the expectation of unsustainable costs caused by the needs of an older population. That this expectation is highly unlikely is rarely considered, perhaps because it meshes so well with neo- liberal interests. Sometimes, even evidence that population ageing is not particularly influential for future public health costs gets lost in the rhetoric of demographic alarmism. (Gee, 2002)
    22. 22. ‘Be Alert but Not Alarmed’ (with apologies to John Howard) “…Australia is fortunate to be in a position to decide its demographic future. But whatever we chose one thing is clear. The only way to return to the youthful age structure of the past is by having very large families and dying young. We do not want to do this. This means that, just as individuals have to adjust to personal ageing, so do developed societies have to adjust to demographic ageing.” (Betts, 2008)
    23. 23. Policy Responses to Population Ageing  Economic  Changes to the superannuation system  Increasing the pension age  The baby bonus  Housing help for seniors pilot scheme (2013/14 budget)  Stamp duty exemptions/concessions (4 States & territories)  Social  Promoting independence and active/healthy ageing  Encouraging and supporting ageing in place  Progressively increasing levels of community care
    24. 24. National Community Care Initiatives Initiative Focus 1985: HACC Program • Assistance in the home to reduce residential aged care • Home modifications to enable ageing in place 1987:Community Options Projects (COPs) • More intensive home-based support • Highly dependent people with complex care needs • Available to people off all ages (majority 80+) 1992: Community Aged Care Packages (CACP) • Specifically for older people • Tailored to individual needs (capped fees can apply) 1998: Extended Aged Care at Home program (EACH) • For frail aged people • Flexible high level care package with capped fees 1998: Extended Aged Care at Home (Dementia) Program (EACH-D) • Older people with dementia with behaviours of concern • High level of care for those capable of living at home with assistance 2013: Home Care Packages • Living Longer Living Better aged care reforms • Four levels of care replacing CACP, EACH & EACH-D • From community care to high residential care
    25. 25. Implications for the Built Environment  Housing: Ageing in what kind of place?  Housing types  Size of dwellings  No of storeys  Accessibility  Maintenance  Planning  Housing diversity and choice  Location of services for older people  Housing location in relation to services  Age friendly neighbourhood/urban design  Infrastructure  Convenience, accessibility and safety of public transport
    26. 26.  WHO Age Friendly Cities (2007)  ‘Active ageing’ model  Initial network of 33 participating cities  2 in Australia (Melbourne, Melville WA)  Focussing on:  Outdoor spaces & buildings  Transportation  Housing  Social participation  Respect & social inclusion  Civic participation and employment  Communication & information  Community support & health services International Policy http://www.who.int/ageing/ publications/
    27. 27. National Housing & Urban Policy Initiatives Initiative Key Themes 1992: National Housing Strategy • Howe (1992) Housing for Older Australians: Affordability, Adjustments and Care • Housing preferences, mobility 1994: Australian Urban and Regional Development Review • Increase housing choice • Encouraging more efficient use of housing stock 2002: National Strategy for an Ageing Australia • Long-term, whole of government approach needed • Independence and ageing in place, or moving to more appropriate accommodation 2002: Disability Standards for Public Transport • Accessible vehicles and premises • Roll-out over 30 years 2003: Prime Ministers Science Engineering and Innovation Council • Healthy/positive ageing • Need for technical innovation in housing, neighbourhoods, transport and urban planning 2006: DoHA National Speakers Series • ‘A Community for All Ages’: Building the Future • Need for age-friendly housing and communities
    28. 28. National Housing & Urban Policy Initiatives Initiative Key Themes 2009: National Rental Affordability Scheme • Affordable housing • Accessibility for older people and those with disabilities 2009: National Dialogue on Universal Housing Design • Consultation with wide range of stakeholders • Strategic Plan, aspiring to 100% of new housing by 2020 2010: Access to Premises – Buildings Standards, Disability Discrimination Act • Includes Class 2 (flat/apartment) buildings • Level access at building entrance • Access to at least one floor of sole occupancy units 2012: Livable Housing Design Guidelines • Voluntary standards for housing with Silver, Gold and Platinum level performance/accreditation • Aim for 100% adoption at Silver level by 2020 2013: Advisory Note on Streetscape, Public Outdoor Areas, Fixtures, Fittings and Furniture • Human Rights Commission initiative • Response to industry requests regarding obligations under the Disability Discrimination Act • For outdoor areas not covered by Access to Premises
    29. 29. NSW State Government Initiatives Initiative Key Themes 1982: SEPP 5 (Housing for Older People or People with a Disability) • Age restricted to 55+ or people with a disability • Permitted in land zoned for urban purposes • Set aside local planning controls • Location and accessible design requirements 2004: SEPP (Seniors Living) • Replaced SEPP5: Balancing growing demand with maintaining neighbourhood character 2004: Seniors Living Policy Urban Design Guidelines for Infill Development • Companion to SEPP (Seniors Living) by UDAS • Contextual fit, site planning/design, impacts on streetscape, neighbours, internal site amenity 2007: SEPP (Housing for Seniors or People with Disabilities) • Amendment to SEPP (Seniors Living) • Site compatibility certificates required • Moratorium lifted on land adjoining ‘urban’ zone 2008: Landcom Universal Housing Design Guidelines • Universal Housing Design Guidelines • Planning for all Ages in Built Form Guidelines 2012: NSW Ageing Strategy • Age-friendly local communities grants to councils • Greater housing choice & monitoring supply • Grants to assist moving/downsizing to new dwellings
    30. 30. Peak Body Initiatives Organisation Initiative 2002+ Australian Network for Universal Housing Design (ANUHD) • Top 10 Housing Universal Design Features • Now advocates mandated Livable Housing Guidelines to Gold level in the Building Code of Australia 2006: Australian Local Government Assn. (ALGA) • Age-friendly Built Environments publication • Best practice examples and case studies 2009: National Heart Foundation ALGA & PIA • Healthy Spaces & Places • Active/healthy living urban planning/design guidelines 2012: Local Government Assn. of NSW (ALGA) • Promotion of inclusive and accessible communities • Age Friendly Community Grant Scheme (funded by the Office of Ageing, FACS) 2012: COTA WA (with WA Dept. of Commerce) • Seniors Housing Centre • Your Home Guide to housing options • Information/seminars on housing options incl. downsizing 2013: COTA NSW (with NSW Government) • Liveable Communities Project • Creating Age Friendly Communities Workshops • 23 NSW Councils assisted
    31. 31. Older People and Their Housing, 2011 Household Size: Private Dwellings (65+) 27.8 55.8 16.4 48.4 38.2 13.4 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 1 Person 2 Persons 3+ Persons Percentage No of Residents 65+ 85+ Source: ABS Custom Tables, 2011 Census 65+ 84% 1 or 2 residents 85+ 87% 1 or 2 residents
    32. 32. Older People and Their Housing, 2011 Dwelling Structure (65+ and 85+) Source: ABS Custom Tables, 2011 Census 70.9 9.1 9.6 2.1 8.3 50.4 10.3 10.9 0.5 27.9 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 Separate House Semi, Row, Terrace Flat, Apartment Other Dwelling Non Private Dwelling Percentage Dwelling Structure 65+ 85+
    33. 33. Older People and Their Housing, 2011 Number of Bedrooms (65+ and 85+) Source: ABS Custom Tables, 2011 Census 5.7 21.2 49.3 23.8 7.6 32.4 44.4 15.6 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 0-1 2 3 4+ Percentage No of Bedrooms 65+ 85+ 65+ 73% 3+ bedrooms 85+ 60% 3+ bedrooms
    34. 34. Older People and Their Housing, 2011 Tenure (65+ and 85+) Source: ABS Custom Tables, 2011 Census 67.3 9.1 4.8 6.9 3.1 8.9 48.5 3.8 4.0 3.5 12.3 27.9 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 Owners Purchasers Public Rental Private Rental Other Non Private Percentage Tenure 65+ 85+
    35. 35. Underutilisaton of Housing  The Mismatch Argument  That older people underutilise their housing  They should be encouraged to move to smaller dwellings  Release their larger housing for family households  Utilisation Measure  Canadian National Occupancy Standard (CNOS)  Adopted by ABS as a measure of utilisation  The CNOS Calculation  Relates number of people to number of bedrooms  Children under 5 of either gender can share a bedroom  Children from 5-15 of the same gender can share a bedroom  Adults (married or de-facto) can share a bedroom
    36. 36. The Housing Utilisation Study  Participants  55 years and older  1,604 respondents Australia wide  70 face to face interviews in NSW, VIC, QLD, WA and ACT  How Older People 55+ Were Housed (2006 Census)  83% in households of 1 (38%) or 2 (54%) people  81% in detached suburban dwellings  83% in dwellings with 3 or more bedrooms  84% of all dwellings of 55+ ‘underutilised’ by CNOS measure  Survey Findings  91% satisfied with the dwelling size for their household’s needs  Why this apparent contradiction?
    37. 37. Temporary Residents  Temporary residents  Stay over at least 20 nights, but less than 6 months annually  Not included in census count for no of permanent residents  25% of respondents had at least one temporary resident  Compared to 12% from 1999 Australian Housing Survey  Types of temporary residents  Child (37%)  Other relative (20%)  Grandchild (18%)  Friend (14%)  Elderly parent (5%)  Tenant/boarder (1%) “At the present moment I’ve got another temporary resident. That’s my son. My eldest boy. He’s forty-nine; he just turned forty-nine. He’s just split with his wife, so…it’s temporary, but how temporary, well it’s been more than twenty nights, put it that way.”
    38. 38. Alternative Use of Bedrooms  Other uses of ‘spare’ bedrooms  Office (34%)  Guest bedroom (27%)  Hobby room (12%)  Storage (9%)  Ironing room (4%)  Reading room (2%)
    39. 39. Other Alternative Uses  Additional living rooms used for  Craft rooms  Exercise rooms/gym  Office/study rooms  Library/reading room  ‘Spare’ garage/carport space  Workshop  Hobbies  Outdoor living
    40. 40. Other Considerations  Desire to age in place  Attachment to the home  Attachment to the location  Attachment to community  Couple’s need for personal space  For hobbies  Separate offices/work spaces  To “get away from each other”  Sleeping separately for health reasons  Increased use of the home  More time spent at home since retirement Now I’m retired I stay at home much more so I use the space more. And I need room for the grandkids. Once we retired we needed space, enough space to be able to get away from each other so that we’re not underfoot. It is that I know everything with my eyes closed and I feel secure here. Yes. If I go and live somewhere else, I don’t know anybody.
    41. 41. Utilisation of the Neighbourhood 7.6 10.2 42.1 50.4 50.9 55.8 56.7 64.1 68.1 79.2 94.9 92.4 89.8 57.9 49.6 49.1 44.2 43.3 35.9 31.9 20.8 5.1 0.0 20.0 40.0 60.0 80.0 100.0 Medical/Health Appointments Theatre/Cultural Activities Dining Out Educational Courses Friends/Family Visit You Community/Social Clubs Volunteering Activities Visiting Family/Friends Religious Services/Activities Sport/Recreation Shopping/Banking/Retail Percentage ActivityType Monthly-Yearly Daily-Weekly
    42. 42. Barriers to Participation  Paths of travel  Absent  Discontinuous  Poorly maintained  Overgrown  Lack of road crossings  Poor lighting at night  Public access to buildings  Stairs  Lack of ramps  Lack of handrails  Lack of seating
    43. 43. Barriers to Participation  Street Furniture & Fixtures  Lack of seating  Lack of shelter  Lack of public toilets  Poor maintenance  Public open space  Inadequate/poor provision  Poor design  Lack of paving  Lack of seating  Lack of shelter  Lack of public toilets
    44. 44. Barriers to Participation  Transport Infrastructure  Poor provision or quality of service (irregular/unreliable)  Waiting/transfer times, queues and crowding  Confusing timetables and bus routes  Distance or steep topography to public transport nodes  Lack of seating & shelter  Stair only access to stations and buses  Crime/safety concerns at transport nodes  Lower-income outer-suburban and some regional towns usually worse
    45. 45. Gunnedah Town Centre Photos: Bruce Judd
    46. 46. A Central NSW Town Centre Photos: Bruce Judd
    47. 47. Older Home Owners: A Summary  Housing  Most live in 3 or more bedroom dwellings  High levels of satisfaction with dwelling size  Space is generally highly utilised  Alternative uses of bedrooms and other spaces are important to the health and well being of older people  All reasons why most older people want to stay put  Neighbourhood  Participation in local neighbourhoods is important to older people  Poor provision, quality, continuity, and maintenance of urban infrastructure are barriers to participation  Many neighbourhoods are not age-friendly and therefore are barriers to participation
    48. 48. The Downsizing Study  Questions  How many older people do downsize?  Why to they downsize?  Into what kind of housing?  With what outcomes?  Should we encourage more older people to downsize?  If so, what might help to facilitate this?  Participants  People who had moved since turning 50 years of age  2767 survey respondents  60 in-depth interviews in three states (NSW, VIC, SA)  Policy Forum in each state
    49. 49. Extent of Downsizing  Estimating the number of downsizers  18% of 50+ Australians moved in the 5 years 2006-2011 (ABS Census data)  50% of 50+ survey respondents who moved in the 5 years 2006-2011 downsized to a dwelling with fewer bedrooms  9% (or 235,509) of 50+ Australians estimated to have downsized between 2006-2011  Where did survey respondents move?  98% had lived previously in the general community  71% remained living in the general community  21% moved into retirement villages  5% moved into other seniors’ accommodation
    50. 50. Change in Dwelling Type 90.5 5.4 3.2 0.2 0.6 42.5 28.2 23.2 4.2 1.9 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 Sep House Attached Row House Flat/ Apartment Caravan or Mobile Hm Other Percentage Dwelling Type Former Current(n=1269,1262)
    51. 51. Change in Number of Bedrooms 0.0 0.1 4.5 33.4 61.9 1.5 9.6 47.1 41.8 0.0 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 Bed-sit One Two Three Four+ Percentage No of Bedrooms Former dwelling Current dwelling(n=1214)
    52. 52. Change in Floor Area 0.6 3.5 13.1 21.6 21.4 20.5 19.5 5.8 17.6 34.6 22.8 11.9 4.3 3.1 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 < 50 m2 50-99 m2 100-149 m2 150-199 m2 200-249 m2 250-299 m2 300+ m2 Percentage Floor Area Former dwelling Current dwelling(n=894)
    53. 53. Why Did They Downsize? (n=1212, multiple answer question) 6.9 0.9 1.7 1.7 1.9 2.4 5.8 6.8 7.5 10.1 10.1 11.9 16.4 17.2 26.6 37.9 0 10 20 30 40 Other Locational Dissatisfaction Employment reasons Dwelling too big Formed new relationship Distance from family Financial difficulties Self/partner's disability Self/partner's illness Financial gain Death of partner Relationship breakdown Retirement of self or partner Child(ren) leaving home Inability to maintain house/garden Lifestyle preference Circumstances Percentage of respondents
    54. 54. 3.7 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.6 3.2 3.8 3.9 3.9 5.1 11.9 14.1 27.4 29.5 52.2 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 Other Council of the Ageing (COTA) National Seniors Association Other seniors' organisation(s) Legal advisor Popular media Australian Government information State Government information Local Government information Health/aged care professional No one / own decision Financial advisor Real estate agent/website Friends Family SourceofInformation Percentage of respondents Who Provided Advice & Assistance? (n=868, multiple answer question)
    55. 55. 14.5 1.9 14.4 19.2 23.5 24.4 29.2 31.8 33.2 34.6 38.3 47.5 48.7 55.3 57.2 66.5 72.3 74.0 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 Other Larger dwelling Discharge or reduce a mortgage Better investment More modern home Closeness to aged care services Closeness to friends More attractive area Reduce cost of living Closeness to children or relatives More accessible home Closeness to health services Closeness to public transport Closeness to shops Lifestyle improvement Smaller dwelling Less maintenance of the yard Less maintenance of the home Percentage of Respondents Considerations What Were They Looking For? (important + very important) (n=1212, multiple answer question)
    56. 56. 11.8 3.5 5.1 5.4 8.6 11.8 17.8 32.5 44.9 64.3 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 Other Lack of information or advice Difficulty obtaining finance Fees or stamp duty costs Distance to health facilities Distance to retail facilities Distance from family or friends Suitability of available locations Cost or affordability of housing Availability of suitable housing type Difficulties Percentage of respondents What Difficulties Did They Encounter? (difficult + very difficult) (n=314, multiple answer question) 74% found it easy or very easy 26% found it difficult or fairly difficult
    57. 57. 10.1 2.9 5.8 7.2 7.2 8.7 8.7 8.7 8.7 11.6 13.0 15.9 15.9 20.3 21.7 24.6 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 Other Stairs Accessibility/location/transport Inappropriate/poor design Lack of privacy Crime/safety/security issues Noise Poor construction quality Dislike cohort living Strata issues Neighbours/social issues Unexpected costs Affordability Inadequate space Building/village management issues Building/village defects/maintenance Reasonsfordissatisfaction Percentage of respondents Reasons for Dissatisfaction (n=69 multiple answer question) 90% satisfied or very satisfied with the home they downsized into
    58. 58. Barriers & Policy Options Type Barriers Policy Options Dwelling & Locational Barriers • Difficulty finding suitable (smaller), affordable, accessible dwellings in suitable locations (close to retail, transport and other services) • Age friendly planning & urban design controls • Mandated accessible housing design Financial Barriers • Cost associated with moving: • Stamp duty • Removalists fees • Temporary accommodation • Estate agent’s fees • Impact on age pension eligibility • Housing market fluctuations • Stamp duty exemptions/ concessions (4 states) or replacement with land tax • Age pension assets test exemption (2013/14 budget • Last home owners grants Psychological & Practical Barriers • Emotional attachment to home and neighbourhood • Stress of preparation for sale • Stress of moving • Difficulty of sorting, packing disposing of belongings • More effective information, advisory & assistance services by government & NGO providers • Age-specific financial advisors & removalists
    59. 59. The Ageing City: Are We Prepared?  Housing  Progress with Access to Premises Standards and Livable Housing Guidelines, unlikely to meet targets unless mandated  Greater Innovation in the housing industry to provide the housing types older people will want to downsize into  Less focus on specialised housing, more on inclusive housing  Urban Planning  Planning and development controls to encourage housing types suitable for older people close to amenities and services  National inclusive urban design guidelines  Infrastructure  Review the slow roll-out of disability standards for public transport unlikely to keep pace with population ageing
    60. 60. Postcript: Back to the Future? 1960/70s Villa Homes in Ramsgate Source; Google Earth, Sinclair Knight Merz/Google
    61. 61. Utzon: Kingo Houses, Elsinore, Denmark 1956-60 Source: betonbabe.tumblr.com Source: http://metrhispanic.com  Smaller (but not too small) dwelling  Single level  Small garden  Low maintenance  Not universal design Source: www.flikr.com Source: bdstudio3.blogspot.com.au
    62. 62. Utzon: Fredensborg Housing, Denmark 1963 Source: http://www.pinterest.com//  Pensioner housing  Smaller (but not too small)  Single level  Small Garden  Low maintenance  Closer to uni- versal design Source: http:/en.wikipedia.org Source: http://arquiscopio.com
    63. 63. References Australian Treasury (2002) Intergenerational Report 2002-03 (Budget Paper No. 5), Canberra. Betts, K. (2008) Population Ageing in Australia: Policy Implications of Recent Projections, People and Place, Vol. 16, No 4, pp. 3-51 Bringolf, J. (2012) Barriers to Universal Design: Why they exist and how they might be resolved, PHD Thesis, University of Western Sydney. Coory, M. (2004) Ageing and Healthcare Costs in Australia: a case of policy-based evidence? Medical Journal of Australia, Vol. 180, pp. 581-583. Gee, E. (2002) Misconceptions and misapprehensions about population ageing, International Journal of Epidemiology, Vol. 31, pp. 750-753. Global Cities Indicators Facility (2013) Cities and Ageing (GCIF Policy Snapshot No 2, Toronto: University of Toronto. Haq, G., Brown, D. & Hards, S. (2010) Older People and Climate Change: the Case for Better Engagement. Stockholm Environment Institute, Stockholm. Howe, A. (1992) Housing for Older Australians: Affordability, Adjustments and Care (National Housing Strategy Background Paper No 8), Canberra. Intergenerational Foundation (2010) About IF, Accessed 5/4/14 http://www.if.org.uk/about/about-if. Major Cities Unit (2013) State of Australian Cities 2013, Canberra: Department of Infrastructure and Transport. Productivity Commission (2013) An Ageing Australia: Preparing the Future (Research Paper), Canberra. Quine, S. & Carter, S. (2006) “Australian Baby Boomers’ Expectations and Plans for Their Old Age”, Australian Journal on Ageing, Vol. 25, No 1, pp. 3-7. United Nations Population Fund [UNPF] and Help Age International (2012) Ageing in the Twenty-First Century: A Celebration and Challenge. New York . Ward, M. (2013) Inclusive Housing in Australia: A Question of Responsibility and Distributive Justice, PhD Thesis, School of Design, Creative Industries Faculty, Brisbane: Queensland University of Technology.

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