MARTINEZ - Enhancing Public Policy Decision Making using Large-scale Cell Phone Data / Vanessa Frias-Martinez

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VANESSA FRIAS MARTINEZ - a Scientific Researcher in the Data Mining and User Modeling Group at Telefonica Research in Madrid, Spain – focuses on technologies for emerging markets. She took participants through her work to determine specific human behaviors from cell phone data to evaluate the effectiveness of policy decisions. In order to measure the impact of the Mexican government’s H1N1 response in 2009, Vanessa analyzed call records to determine changes in people’s mobility patterns in Mexico City. The results indicated that the government’s policy to issue warnings to stay away from public spaces was in fact heeded by the citizens and thus effective in limiting exposure to the virus. Vanessa’s presentation also introduced cell phone data as cost-effective method to conduct demographic research in emerging economies.

Paper: "Measuring the Impact of Epidemic Alerts on Human Mobility using Cell-Phone Network Data"

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MARTINEZ - Enhancing Public Policy Decision Making using Large-scale Cell Phone Data / Vanessa Frias-Martinez

  1. 1. Enhancing Public PolicyDecision Making using Large-scale Cell Phone Data Vanessa Frias-Martinez Telefonica Research Madrid, Spain 1
  2. 2. Cell Phones as SensorsMay 19, 2011, 7:06 pm The Sensors Are Coming!By NICK BILTON Telecom / Wireless NEWS Cellphones for Science Scientists want to put sensors into everyones hands 2
  3. 3. Cell Phone Data: Calling RecordsCalling Records are saved by Telco Companies Calling Records can be anonymizedCalling Records are saved for all feature and smartphones (emerging economies) 3
  4. 4. Can cell phone data be used to extract specific human behaviors that might be useful from a policy perspective? 4
  5. 5. BEHAVIORAL Urban CDRs VARIABLES Planning ToolsCall Detail Consumption Records Social Mobility Crisis Management Tools Global Health Tools TELEFONICA RESEARCH INSTITUTIONS & POLICY MAKERS 5
  6. 6. Cell Phone Data 6
  7. 7. Modeling BehaviorsConsumption• Number calls , duration, SMS/MMS/voice• Expenses• Handset Type and FeaturesSocial• Degree of the social network• Weight of the contacts, frequency of communicationMobility• Diameter of mobility and social network• Radius of gyration• Mobility Patterns 7
  8. 8. Computing Cost-Effective Census Maps From Cell Phone Data 8
  9. 9. Motivation: Census Maps A/B C+ C D E 9
  10. 10. Motivation: Census Maps A/B C+ C D E 10
  11. 11. Motivation: Census Maps Expensive Specially for Emerging Economies (every 10 years) A/B C+ C D E 11
  12. 12. Cell Phone Data as a proxy of SEL Consumption SEL PREDICTIVE Social MODELS Mobility • Higher SELs are correlated to larger areas of mobility • Lower SELs are correlated to smaller social network degrees 12
  13. 13. CenCell Tool For Policy Makers Accuracies up to 80% 13
  14. 14. Saving BudgetNational Statistical Telcos buildNational StatisticalInstitutes carry out models to predictInstitutes carry out surveys on a SELs from Cell surveys subset of regions Phone Usage Predict the Present Determine SELs for non-surveyed regions SAVEBUDGET 14
  15. 15. Understanding the Impact of Health Alerts using Cell Phone Data 15
  16. 16. H1N1 Mexico Timeline Closed Reopen Preflu 27th April 6th May Alert Shutdown 17th April 1st MayMeasure the impact that government alerts had on the population 16
  17. 17. Epidemic Disease Model Contact Transition Recovery Rate Rate RateSusceptible Exposed Infectious Recovered All members within each compartment are assumed to be equal 17
  18. 18. Agent-Based ModelMobility ModelSocial Network ModelDisease Model 18
  19. 19. Discrete Event Simulator M3 S3 D3 M2 S2 D2 M1 S1 D1 Social Network Mobility Model Disease Model Modelt₀ t₁ t₂ t₃ … t₉ (1 hour) Using Calling Records from 1st Jan. till 31st.May 2009Measure the impact that government alerts had on the population’s mobility and on the disease’s spread 19
  20. 20. Impact On Population’s Mobility April 27th May 1st May 6th Mobility reduced between 10% and 30% Alert Closed Shutdown ReopenIntervention 20
  21. 21. Impact on Disease Propagation Baseline (“preflu” behavior all weeks) Intervention (alert,closed,shutdown) Epidemic peak postponed 40 hours Reduced number of infected in peak agents by 10% 21
  22. 22. BEHAVIORAL Urban CDRs VARIABLES Planning ToolsCall Detail Consumption Records Social Mobility Crisis Management Tools Global Health Tools TELEFONICA RESEARCH INSTITUTIONS & POLICY MAKERS 22
  23. 23. Scientific Publications• Vanessa Frias-Martinez, Alberto Rubio and Enrique Frias-Martinez, "Measuring the Impact of Epidemic Alerts on Human Mobility using Cell-Phone Network Data", Second Workshop on Pervasive Urban Applications @Pervasive 2012, Newcastle, UK• Vanessa Frias-Martinez, Victor Soto, Jesus Virseda and Enrique Frias-Martinez, "Computing Cost-Effective Census Maps From Cell Phone Traces", Second Workshop on Pervasive Urban Applications @ Pervasive 2012, Newcastle, UK.• Vanessa Frias-Martinez and Jesus Virseda and Enrique Frías- Martínez, "SocioEconomic Status and Physical Mobility",Journal of Information Technology for Development (ITD), Special Edition on "ICT and Human Mobility: Cases From Developing Countries and Beyond", February Issue, pages 1-16, 2012 23
  24. 24. Scientific Publications• Vanessa Frias-Martinez and Jesus Virseda,"On The Relationship Between Socio- Economic actors and Cell Phone Usage", 3rd International Conference on Information & Communication Technologies and Development, ICTD 2012, Atlanta, USA.• Enrique Frias-Martinez, Graham Williamson and Vanessa Frias-Martinez, "An Agent-Based Model Of Epidemic Spread Using Human Mobility and Social Network Information", 3rd International Conference on Social Computing (SocialCom11), Boston, USA, 2011• Victor Soto and Vanessa Frias-Martinez and Jesus Virseda and Enrique Frias- Martinez, "Prediction of Socioeconomic Levels using Cell Phone Records", International Conference on User Modeling, Adaptation and Personalization (UMAP), Industrial Track, Girona, Spain, 2011. 24
  25. 25. Thanks !! vanessa@tid.eswww.vanessafriasmartinez.org 25

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