By 2050, the global HDI would be:19% higher than it is today.Largest increase in developing countries (24%).44% for Sub-Saharan Africa and 36% for South Asia.8% lower in an environmental challenge scenario.12% for South Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa.15% lower in an environmental disaster scenario.Dramatic impact on developing countries24% for Sub-Saharan Africa and 22% for South Asia.
Sustainability and Equity: A better future for all
Key messages Global: World has made major progress during past two decades . . . . . . But this progress is increasingly threatened by unsustainable environment policies and practices Environmental sustainability and equity are closely linked Sustainability is about inter-generational equity . . . . . . But what about intra-generational equity? More equal societies have better development indicators “Double burden”: Many of the world’s poor bear environmental risks as well as income poverty, These issues will be taken up at UNCSD in Rio (June 2012) Regional: Transition economies of the former Soviet Union, Balkans, new EU member states compare well with other regions . . . . . . But there are causes for concern as well Concrete examples of how UNDP can help
Possible development consequences of environmental unsustainability Human development index: Per-capita GNI, life expectancy, years of education
The world is warming—Implications?Sea levels: RisingNatural disasters:Average annualnumber has doubled inlast 25 yearsGreatest impact bornby low HDI countries• Greatest forest cover losses(11% since 1990)• Poorest households, countriescan not afford to reforest
“Double burden” of income poverty, poor access to key resources 90% Poor households are likely to: 80% • cook with wood, dung Form of • not have access to improved deprivation water, sanitation services 35% Multiple deprivations: • 80% of poor households experience two or more deprivations Modern Sanitation Water cooking • 29% face all three fuels Particular burden on women
How much finance is needed? For climate change mitigation, adaptation: Estimates are uncertain . . . . . . Ranging from $500 billion to $2 trillion, annually For water and sanitation: $60 billion annually Most of this must come from private sector . . . . . . But how effective are carbon markets?
Public finance and climate change ODA needed to leverage carbon markets Promote market deepening by reducing: Risks Transactions costs Larger role for Russia, BRICS, non- OECD/DAC donors? Financial transactions tax? EU has pledged to introduce this in 2012 . . . . . . But not for development, carbon finance
How much finance is coming?• Copenhagen summit (2009):“Green climate fund” • Developed countries are to provide $100 billion annually in climate finance for developing countries by 2020 • “New, additional monies”• 2010: $97 billion in carbonfinance flows • $93 billion—mitigation • Private sector: $55 billion • ODA: • $39 billion—mostly via development banks . . . •. . . Most not “new and additional” • Carbon markets: “only” provided $2.3 billion Source: The Economist (5 November 2011)
Rio + 20—Issues • Financing the transition to low- carbon growth? • MDGs after 2015? • Sustainable development goals? • Reform of global environmental governance? • Binding emissions targets?
Regional dimension Transition economies of the former Soviet Union, Balkans, new EU member states: Compare well with other regions . . . . . . But there are causes for concern as well There are good examples to be replicated, scaled up Public sector energy efficiency in Croatia UNDP can help with this
Russia, transition economies: High/very high HDI levelsOECD countries (2004 newEU member states), CroatiaMoldova, Central Asia (except Kazakhstan) Human development index: Per-capita GNI, life Russia, other FSU, plus expectancy, years of Turkey, Southeast Europe education
Forest cover is returning 2% 1%Asia, PacificEurope, Central AsiaArab states Latin America, Caribbean Sub-Sahara Africa Change in square kilometres of forest coverage, 1990-2010 -8% -10% -12%
Greenhouse gas emissions: Global convergence? . . .100 Tons of CO2 equivalent emitted per $1 of GDP8060 Kazakhstan Russia40 Ukraine Global20 0 UNFCCC, IMF data; UNDP calculations.
. . . Or are transition economies still outliers? 1.7 1.6 1.6 Tons of CO2 equivalent emitted per $1 of GDP (2008) 1.4 1.0 0.5 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 UNFCCC, IMF data; UNDP calculations.
Many transition economies beat the global average 0.5 Tons of CO2 equivalent 0.4 emitted per $1 of GDP (2008) 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2Global Slovakia Croatia Armenia Lithuania Albania Latvia UNFCCC, IMF data; UNDP calculations.
Carbon finance: not comingJoint implementation Clean development projects approved* mechanism projects approved* 400 212 Europe and Central Asia Europe and Central Asia Rest of the world Rest of the world *As of 31 August 2011 John O’Brien, “Carbon finance: Opportunities and reality”, Development and Transition
Carbon finance: What is to be done? Reduce high transactions costs for projects, by: Accelerating project approval Increasing project size “Bundling” projects together Capacity development for: Designated national authorities Private companies working in: Energy efficiency Renewables Project beneficiaries
UNDP can help—Croatia UNDP, Global Environmental Facility programme on public-sector energy efficiency Results (2006-2010): Energy systems in 5900 public buildings refitted Energy audits conducted in 1346 public buildings $18 million in initial annual public-sector energy savings Annual CO2 emissions reduced by 63,000 tons “Energy charter” signed by all 127 municipalities 17 new companies, 150 energy efficiency expert jobs created $4 million in UNDP-GEF funding leveraged $30 million in additional investment Louisa Vinton, “Going green with Gašpar”, Development and Transition
UNDP’s regional research bulletin, for Europe and Central Asia Provides UN, independent views on development, transition, policy, programming Disseminates lessons of successful UN projects Published in Russian and English Distributed to: All UNDP staff in Europe, Central Asia region 4000 external subscriberswww.developmentandtransition.net
We can make a difference Rio—Big picture: Need to make a push for sustainable development UNDP can make a difference on the ground, with local partners and governments