Sustainability and Equity: A better future for all

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  • By 2050, the global HDI would be:19% higher than it is today.Largest increase in developing countries (24%).44% for Sub-Saharan Africa and 36% for South Asia.8% lower in an environmental challenge scenario.12% for South Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa.15% lower in an environmental disaster scenario.Dramatic impact on developing countries24% for Sub-Saharan Africa and 22% for South Asia.
  • Sustainability and Equity: A better future for all

    1. 1. Key messages Global:  World has made major progress during past two decades . . .  . . . But this progress is increasingly threatened by unsustainable environment policies and practices  Environmental sustainability and equity are closely linked  Sustainability is about inter-generational equity . . .  . . . But what about intra-generational equity?  More equal societies have better development indicators  “Double burden”: Many of the world’s poor bear environmental risks as well as income poverty,  These issues will be taken up at UNCSD in Rio (June 2012) Regional:  Transition economies of the former Soviet Union, Balkans, new EU member states compare well with other regions . . .  . . . But there are causes for concern as well  Concrete examples of how UNDP can help
    2. 2. Possible development consequences of environmental unsustainability Human development index: Per-capita GNI, life expectancy, years of education
    3. 3. The world is warming—Implications?Sea levels: RisingNatural disasters:Average annualnumber has doubled inlast 25 yearsGreatest impact bornby low HDI countries• Greatest forest cover losses(11% since 1990)• Poorest households, countriescan not afford to reforest
    4. 4. Precipitation patterns also changing Avg. value, 1951 - 1980Avg. value,2000s
    5. 5. “Double burden” of income poverty, poor access to key resources 90% Poor households are likely to: 80% • cook with wood, dung Form of • not have access to improved deprivation water, sanitation services 35% Multiple deprivations: • 80% of poor households experience two or more deprivations Modern Sanitation Water cooking • 29% face all three fuels Particular burden on women
    6. 6. How much finance is needed? For climate change mitigation, adaptation:  Estimates are uncertain . . .  . . . Ranging from $500 billion to $2 trillion, annually For water and sanitation: $60 billion annually Most of this must come from private sector . . . . . . But how effective are carbon markets?
    7. 7. Public finance and climate change  ODA needed to leverage carbon markets  Promote market deepening by reducing:  Risks  Transactions costs  Larger role for Russia, BRICS, non- OECD/DAC donors?  Financial transactions tax?  EU has pledged to introduce this in 2012 . . .  . . . But not for development, carbon finance
    8. 8. How much finance is coming?• Copenhagen summit (2009):“Green climate fund” • Developed countries are to provide $100 billion annually in climate finance for developing countries by 2020 • “New, additional monies”• 2010: $97 billion in carbonfinance flows • $93 billion—mitigation • Private sector: $55 billion • ODA: • $39 billion—mostly via development banks . . . •. . . Most not “new and additional” • Carbon markets: “only” provided $2.3 billion Source: The Economist (5 November 2011)
    9. 9. Rio + 20—Issues • Financing the transition to low- carbon growth? • MDGs after 2015? • Sustainable development goals? • Reform of global environmental governance? • Binding emissions targets?
    10. 10. Regional dimension Transition economies of the former Soviet Union, Balkans, new EU member states:  Compare well with other regions . . .  . . . But there are causes for concern as well There are good examples to be replicated, scaled up  Public sector energy efficiency in Croatia UNDP can help with this
    11. 11. Russia, transition economies: High/very high HDI levelsOECD countries (2004 newEU member states), CroatiaMoldova, Central Asia (except Kazakhstan) Human development index: Per-capita GNI, life Russia, other FSU, plus expectancy, years of Turkey, Southeast Europe education
    12. 12. Forest cover is returning 2% 1%Asia, PacificEurope, Central AsiaArab states Latin America, Caribbean Sub-Sahara Africa Change in square kilometres of forest coverage, 1990-2010 -8% -10% -12%
    13. 13. Greenhouse gas emissions: Global convergence? . . .100 Tons of CO2 equivalent emitted per $1 of GDP8060 Kazakhstan Russia40 Ukraine Global20 0 UNFCCC, IMF data; UNDP calculations.
    14. 14. . . . Or are transition economies still outliers? 1.7 1.6 1.6 Tons of CO2 equivalent emitted per $1 of GDP (2008) 1.4 1.0 0.5 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 UNFCCC, IMF data; UNDP calculations.
    15. 15. Many transition economies beat the global average 0.5 Tons of CO2 equivalent 0.4 emitted per $1 of GDP (2008) 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2Global Slovakia Croatia Armenia Lithuania Albania Latvia UNFCCC, IMF data; UNDP calculations.
    16. 16. Carbon finance: not comingJoint implementation Clean development projects approved* mechanism projects approved* 400 212 Europe and Central Asia Europe and Central Asia Rest of the world Rest of the world *As of 31 August 2011 John O’Brien, “Carbon finance: Opportunities and reality”, Development and Transition
    17. 17. Carbon finance: What is to be done? Reduce high transactions costs for projects, by:  Accelerating project approval  Increasing project size  “Bundling” projects together Capacity development for:  Designated national authorities  Private companies working in:  Energy efficiency  Renewables  Project beneficiaries
    18. 18. UNDP can help—Croatia UNDP, Global Environmental Facility programme on public-sector energy efficiency Results (2006-2010):  Energy systems in 5900 public buildings refitted  Energy audits conducted in 1346 public buildings  $18 million in initial annual public-sector energy savings  Annual CO2 emissions reduced by 63,000 tons  “Energy charter” signed by all 127 municipalities  17 new companies, 150 energy efficiency expert jobs created  $4 million in UNDP-GEF funding leveraged $30 million in additional investment Louisa Vinton, “Going green with Gašpar”, Development and Transition
    19. 19.  UNDP’s regional research bulletin, for Europe and Central Asia Provides UN, independent views on development, transition, policy, programming Disseminates lessons of successful UN projects Published in Russian and English Distributed to:  All UNDP staff in Europe, Central Asia region  4000 external subscriberswww.developmentandtransition.net
    20. 20. We can make a difference Rio—Big picture: Need to make a push for sustainable development UNDP can make a difference on the ground, with local partners and governments

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