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Economic Prosperity and Resilience in the New Era of Biocapacity Constraints

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Dr. Mathis Wackernagel, Global Footprint Network, UNDP Climate Change and Development, May 26, 2011

Published in: Self Improvement, Technology
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Economic Prosperity and Resilience in the New Era of Biocapacity Constraints

  1. 1. Economic Prosperity and ResilienceIn the New Era of Biocapacity ConstraintsDr. Mathis WackernagelMay 26, 2011 – UNDP Climate Change and Development
  2. 2. Biocapacity Creditors and Biocapacity Debtors
  3. 3. Biocapacity Creditors and Biocapacity Debtors
  4. 4. Biocapacity Creditors and Biocapacity Debtors Global Footprint --------------------------- = 1.5 Global Biocapacity
  5. 5. The Ecological Footprint CARBON footprint
  6. 6. Accounting Framework for Ecological Services Biocapacity: How much bioproductive areais available to us? Ecological Footprint: How much bioproductive area do we demand?
  7. 7. The Basic Equation Amount per year Area = ------------------------- YieldTranslate area from ha into global ha…
  8. 8. Biocapacityper person Ecological Footprint
  9. 9. ItalyEcological Footprint Biocapacity per person
  10. 10. Italy’s relative GDP percapita (compared toWorld)Italy’s Biocapacity Deficit
  11. 11. EITHER: ~ 2°C X 450 ppm? 350 ppm?Tragedy of the Commons?Yes, but… OR: 1700 ppm
  12. 12. A special report on debt Re: A better wayThe rich world shouldworry about growth- promoting reformsmore than short-term fiscal austerity
  13. 13. Ecological Creditors and Ecological Debtors in Europe Ecological Footprint and Biocapacity PER CAPITA,1961-2005 DE BY AT BE DK ES SK FR FI GR NL HU IT IR PO PT CZ UK RO RU RS CH SE UA
  14. 14. Mathis’ life (1962 – onwards) Annual deficit adds up to a global biocapacity debt
  15. 15. Mathis’ life UN’s Most Moderate Scenario Biocapacity Debt
  16. 16. Preparing for resourceconstraints is in the most directself-interest of cities andcountries. (much more so than forindividuals or companies…) mathis@footprintnetwork.org
  17. 17. Ecological Footprint per person Deficit Biocapacity per person 3.00 2007 Food Housing 2.50 Mobility Goods Services Government gha per capita 2.00 GFC Other 1.50ITALY 1.00 0.50 0.00 Cropland Grazing Land Forest Land Fishing Carbon Built-up Land Grounds Uptake Land
  18. 18. PER CAPITA / PER CAPITA CONSUMPTION RESOURCE EFFICIENCY = ECOLOGICAL FOOTPRINT (DEMAND) DIFFERENCE BETW.Five Factors BIOCAPACITY DEMAND AND BIOCAP. SUPPLY BIO- PRODUCTIVITY PER CAPITA AREA = BIOCAPACITY x / POPULATION (SUPPLY)
  19. 19. NEW! MRIO (GTAP7 based) covering 93 countries (+ 20 regions)• Consumption – break down national total into 59 consumption categories• Import – which countries do these 59 cats come from?• Export – in which countries do exports get consumed?
  20. 20. Consumption Footprint for Cropland in gha: Switzerland GFCF HH GOV TOTAL Raw milk 9,701 249,538 64 259,303 Wool, silk-worm cocoons 397 5,571 4 5,972 Forestry 155 3,570 18 3,742 Fishing 23 2,553 2 2,579 Coal 0 1 0 1 Oil 0 0 0 0 Gas 0 776 0 776 Minerals nec 10 1,760 3 1,773 Bovine meat products 10 91,870 367 92,248 Meat products nec 20 277,257 3,216 280,493 Vegetable oils and fats 24 266,008 3,404 269,436 Dairy products 26 331,746 81 331,853 Processed rice 1 29,735 61 29,797 Sugar 7 18,072 73 18,153 Food products nec 112 561,281 469 561,862Beverages and tobacco products 31 367,213 65 367,308 Textiles 2,350 121,539 767 124,656 Wearing apparel 187 391,542 142 391,870 Leather products 2 127,449 82 127,533 Wood products 454 14,732 1 15,187
  21. 21. Sustainable (fits on one planet?)Measuring “sustainable development” development HDI
  22. 22. Footprint/Biocap. 1HDI1
  23. 23. CurrentFootprint/Biocap. position 1 Goal HDI 1
  24. 24. Footprint/Biocap. 1HDI SD path1
  25. 25. P1Footprint/Biocap. mitigation 1 SD path HDI 1
  26. 26. Δ HDI * pSDROI = –––––––––– Inv + Mit
  27. 27. How close are we today to attaining global sustainability? national biocapacity Conventional belief Collapse Sustainable path
  28. 28. offical national gov Footprint studies we’re working on national govsWBCSDUNDPEP and ECUNEP Green Econ.SEEA (?) (2011)
  29. 29. Summary• The planet has a budget. Do you know how much biocapacity you have? and how much you use?• Blindness costs lives & opportunities.• Link to economic stability and competitiveness mathis@footprintnetwork.org
  30. 30. WBCSD Vision 2050 - Who’s in? WBCSD Vision 2050 39
  31. 31. Sustainability wedges for ending overshoot by 2050 (WBCSD) 15
  32. 32. Ecological Creditors and Ecological Debtors in Africa Ecological Footprint and Biocapacity PER CAPITA,1961-2005 Alge. CM AO BF CG CI EG ET GH KE MG MW ML MA MZ NE NG ZA SD SN TZ UG ZM ZW
  33. 33. Shrinking IncreasingBiocapacity EcologicalCredit and Social Instability

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