Dr. Mathis Wackernagel, Global Footprint Network, UNDP Climate Change and Development, May 26, 2011

1. Economic Prosperity and Resilience
In the New Era of Biocapacity Constraints
Dr. Mathis Wackernagel
May 26, 2011 – UNDP Climate Change and Development

2. Biocapacity Creditors and Biocapacity Debtors

3. Biocapacity Creditors and Biocapacity Debtors

4. Biocapacity Creditors and Biocapacity Debtors
Global Footprint
--------------------------- = 1.5
Global Biocapacity

5. The Ecological Footprint
CARBON footprint

6. Accounting Framework for
Ecological Services
Biocapacity:
How much
bioproductive area
is available to us?
Ecological Footprint:
How much bioproductive
area do we demand?

7. The Basic Equation
Amount per year
Area = -------------------------
Yield
Translate area from ha into global ha…

8. Biocapacity
per person
Ecological Footprint

9. Italy
Ecological Footprint
Biocapacity
per person

10. Italy’s relative GDP per
capita (compared to
World)
Italy’s Biocapacity Deficit

11. EITHER: ~ 2°C X
450 ppm?
350 ppm?
Tragedy of the Commons?
Yes, but…
OR: 1700 ppm

12. A special report on debt
Re:
A better way
The rich world should
worry about growth-
promoting reforms
more than short-term
fiscal austerity

13. Ecological Creditors and Ecological Debtors in Europe
Ecological Footprint and Biocapacity PER CAPITA,1961-2005
DE BY
AT BE DK
ES SK FR FI GR
NL HU IT IR PO
PT CZ UK RO RU
RS CH SE UA

14. Mathis’ life (1962 – onwards)
Annual deficit adds up to a
global biocapacity debt

15. Mathis’ life UN’s Most Moderate Scenario
Biocapacity Debt

20. Preparing for resource
constraints is in the most direct
self-interest of cities and
countries. (much more so than for
individuals or companies…)
mathis@footprintnetwork.org

23. Ecological Footprint
per person
Deficit
Biocapacity per person
3.00
2007
Food Housing
2.50 Mobility Goods
Services Government
gha per capita
2.00 GFC Other
1.50
ITALY 1.00
0.50
0.00
Cropland Grazing Land Forest Land Fishing Carbon Built-up Land
Grounds Uptake Land

24. PER CAPITA
/ PER CAPITA
CONSUMPTION
RESOURCE
EFFICIENCY
= ECOLOGICAL
FOOTPRINT
(DEMAND)
DIFFERENCE BETW.
Five Factors BIOCAPACITY
DEMAND AND
BIOCAP. SUPPLY
BIO-
PRODUCTIVITY PER CAPITA
AREA
= BIOCAPACITY
x / POPULATION
(SUPPLY)

25. NEW!
MRIO (GTAP7 based)
covering 93 countries (+ 20 regions)
• Consumption – break down national total
into 59 consumption categories
• Import – which countries do these 59 cats
come from?
• Export – in which countries do exports
get consumed?

26. Consumption Footprint for
Cropland in gha: Switzerland GFCF HH GOV TOTAL
Raw milk 9,701 249,538 64 259,303
Wool, silk-worm cocoons 397 5,571 4 5,972
Forestry 155 3,570 18 3,742
Fishing 23 2,553 2 2,579
Coal 0 1 0 1
Oil 0 0 0 0
Gas 0 776 0 776
Minerals nec 10 1,760 3 1,773
Bovine meat products 10 91,870 367 92,248
Meat products nec 20 277,257 3,216 280,493
Vegetable oils and fats 24 266,008 3,404 269,436
Dairy products 26 331,746 81 331,853
Processed rice 1 29,735 61 29,797
Sugar 7 18,072 73 18,153
Food products nec 112 561,281 469 561,862
Beverages and tobacco products 31 367,213 65 367,308
Textiles 2,350 121,539 767 124,656
Wearing apparel 187 391,542 142 391,870
Leather products 2 127,449 82 127,533
Wood products 454 14,732 1 15,187

27. Sustainable (fits on one planet?)
Measuring “sustainable development”
development HDI

28. Footprint/Biocap.
1
HDI
1

29. Current
Footprint/Biocap.
position
1
Goal
HDI 1

30. Footprint/Biocap.
1
HDI
SD path
1

31. P1
Footprint/Biocap.
mitigation
1
SD path
HDI 1

32. Δ HDI * p
SDROI = ––––––––––
Inv + Mit

33. How close are we today to attaining global sustainability?
national biocapacity
Conventional
belief
Collapse
Sustainable
path

34. offical national gov Footprint studies
we’re working on national govs
WBCSD
UNDP
EP and EC
UNEP Green Econ.
SEEA (?)
(2011)

38. Summary
• The planet has a budget. Do you
know how much biocapacity you
have? and how much you use?
• Blindness costs lives & opportunities.
• Link to economic stability and
competitiveness
mathis@footprintnetwork.org

39. WBCSD Vision 2050 - Who’s in?
WBCSD Vision 2050 39

40. Sustainability wedges for ending overshoot by 2050 (WBCSD)
15

41. Ecological Creditors and Ecological Debtors in Africa
Ecological Footprint and Biocapacity PER CAPITA,1961-2005
Alge. CM
AO BF CG
CI EG ET GH KE
MG MW ML MA MZ
NE NG ZA SD SN
TZ UG ZM ZW

42. Shrinking Increasing
Biocapacity Ecological
Credit and Social
Instability