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Determining the future course of action
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


Process
Forward looking
Pervasive-at all levels


Long term vs Short term









Objectives
Planning premises
Alternatives
Evaluating alternatives
Choice of alternatives
Supporting plans
...
Commitment to a particular course of action
believed necessary to achieve specific results



Standing - policies, rules, objectives
Single use – budget, targets
Long term vision of what organisation seeks to
do and why does it exist.
Focus is external
End results towards which activities are aimed
Good objectives should have SMART features:
S- specific
M-measurable
A- ach...
Strategies are complex plans for bringing
organisations from one position to other in
future period (determined in light o...
-Series of related tasks
-Establish a method for handling activities
Policies provide direction, procedure tell how
to do
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Based on facts
Stability
Flexibility
Minimum in number
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Prescribed guidelines for conduct, action.
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Planned actions integrated into
unity, designed to bring about stated
objective
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Corporate - top management
Tactical
- middle management
Operational – lower management




List your five most important personal
objectives? Are they long term or short term?
Are the objectives verifiable?
Method

Advantages

Disadvantages

Estimation

People in position estimate the
number of people the firm will
require in t...
Method

Advantages

Disadvantages

Trend
analysis
&
projectio
n

Based on past relationship between a business factor rela...


A decision is an act of choice by which an
individual or organisation selects one
position or action from several alter...



Strategic decisions
Tactical decisions
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





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Specific objectives
Identification of problems: diagnosis, analysis
Search for alternatives
Evaluation of ...
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Certainty
-using deterministic model

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Risk (information insufficient)
◦ -Priori probability (tossing coin)
◦ -Empiri...
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Uncertainty
◦
◦
◦
◦

-maximax criterion
-maximin criterion
-Minimax criterion (minimising regret)
-Insufficient reason ...
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

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Operations Research
Decision Tree
Game Theory
Queuing Theory
Planning
Planning
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Planning

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Planning

  1. 1. Determining the future course of action
  2. 2.    Process Forward looking Pervasive-at all levels
  3. 3.  Long term vs Short term
  4. 4.        Objectives Planning premises Alternatives Evaluating alternatives Choice of alternatives Supporting plans Establishing sequence of activities
  5. 5. Commitment to a particular course of action believed necessary to achieve specific results
  6. 6.   Standing - policies, rules, objectives Single use – budget, targets
  7. 7. Long term vision of what organisation seeks to do and why does it exist. Focus is external
  8. 8. End results towards which activities are aimed Good objectives should have SMART features: S- specific M-measurable A- achievable R-realistic T-time bound Management by Objectives (MBO)
  9. 9. Strategies are complex plans for bringing organisations from one position to other in future period (determined in light of external environment) Policies are general statements which provide guidance in decision making
  10. 10. -Series of related tasks -Establish a method for handling activities Policies provide direction, procedure tell how to do
  11. 11.     Based on facts Stability Flexibility Minimum in number
  12. 12.  Prescribed guidelines for conduct, action.
  13. 13.  Planned actions integrated into unity, designed to bring about stated objective
  14. 14.    Corporate - top management Tactical - middle management Operational – lower management
  15. 15.   List your five most important personal objectives? Are they long term or short term? Are the objectives verifiable?
  16. 16. Method Advantages Disadvantages Estimation People in position estimate the number of people the firm will require in the next yr. Incorporates knowledge of corporate plans in making estimates Expert opinion Panel of experts forecast HR requirements for particular future business scenarios. For this method, there may be a single expert, or estimates of several experts may be pooled together Delphi Experts go through several rounds of estimates with no face-to-face meeting Incorporates future plans & knowledge of experts related to mkt., industry & technical development Subjective, time consuming & may ignore data Group brainstor ming Face-to-face discussion based on multiple assumptions about future business direction Generates lot of ideas Does not lead to conclusion Nominal group technique Face-to-face discussion Group exchanges facilitate plans Subjective which may ignore data Simple averaging Simple averaging of viewpoints Diverse view points taken Extremes views are masked when averaged May be subjective 17
  17. 17. Method Advantages Disadvantages Trend analysis & projectio n Based on past relationship between a business factor related to employment & employment level itself Simple long-run trend analysis Extrapolates past relationship between volume of business activity & employment levels into the future Recognizes linkage between employment & business activity Assumes that volume of business activity of firm for forecast period will continue at same rate as previous yrs Ignores multiplicity of factors influencing employment levels Regressi on analysis Regresses employment needs onto key variables Data driven Uses multiple business factors Difficult to use & apply 18
  18. 18.  A decision is an act of choice by which an individual or organisation selects one position or action from several alternatives
  19. 19.   Strategic decisions Tactical decisions
  20. 20.        Specific objectives Identification of problems: diagnosis, analysis Search for alternatives Evaluation of alternatives Choice Action Results
  21. 21.  Certainty -using deterministic model  Risk (information insufficient) ◦ -Priori probability (tossing coin) ◦ -Empirical probability ◦ -Subjective probability
  22. 22.  Uncertainty ◦ ◦ ◦ ◦ -maximax criterion -maximin criterion -Minimax criterion (minimising regret) -Insufficient reason criterion 9equal probability is assigned to each event)
  23. 23.     Operations Research Decision Tree Game Theory Queuing Theory

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