Global Change in Katunskiy Biosphere Reserve: Vulnerability of ecosystems and Adaptation Strategy [Tatyana Yashina]


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Global Change in Katunskiy Biosphere Reserve: Vulnerability of ecosystems and Adaptation Strategy. Presented by Tatyana Yashina at the "Perth II: Global Change and the World's Mountains" conference in Perth, Scotland in September 2010.

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Global Change in Katunskiy Biosphere Reserve: Vulnerability of ecosystems and Adaptation Strategy [Tatyana Yashina]

  1. 1. Katunskiy Biosphere Reserve UNDP-ICI Project “Extension of Protected Areas Network for Conservation of the Altai-Sayan Ecoregion” Global Change in Katunskiy Biosphere Reserve: Vulnerability of ecosystems and Adaptation Strategy Tatyana Yashina Global Change And Mountain Regions. Perth, Scotland, September, 2010
  2. 2. Altai-Sayan designated as one of WWF Global 200 Ecoregions of the World is located at the center of Asia at area of > than 1 mln sq km and shared by Russia, Kazakhstan, Mongolia and ChinaKatunskiy BR islocated at theboundary of Russiaand Kazakhstan. Thehighest peak ofSiberia (Mt. Belukha,4506) is locatedwithin its transitionzone.
  3. 3. Katunskiy BR• Area ~600 000 ha• Altitudes +750 … +4506 m• Core zone – a water tower for huge areas• UNESCO World Natural Heritage Site• Habitats of endangered animals (Snow leopard, Musk deer…)
  4. 4. Diversity of Ecosystems• Glacial and Nival Ecosystems 24%
  5. 5. Alpine and Subalpine Meadows, 30%•
  6. 6. Montane forests 43%•
  7. 7. • Combination of woods and steppes, 2%
  8. 8. Steppes of intermontane hollows, 1%•
  9. 9. Land Uses• 9 villages (population ~4000)• Active tourism• Agriculture (grazing) Traditional land use: Deer farming Collection of medicinal plants and other non-timber products Hunting, fishing Apiculture
  10. 10. 6 Climate Change (Kharlamova, 2010) 4 2Температура, град.С 0 1838 1848 1858 1868 1878 1888 1898 1908 1918 1928 1938 1948 1958 1968 1978 1988 1998 2008 -2 -4 Increase of annual temperature for last 50 years: -6 Ust-Koksa (998 m asl) +2,10C Akkem (2200 m asl) +1,450C -8 Годы Барнаул Усть-Кокса Кош-Агач 10-летние скользящие Барнаул 10-летние скользящие Усть-Кокса 10-летние скользящие Кош-Агач
  11. 11. Climate Change Scenario • No sophisticated regional modeling • Several researches (Parfenova et al, 2000, Mikhaylov et al, 1992) indicate following conditions as the most probable climate change scenario in the Altai mountains for next 40 years: increase of annual precipitation by 20% and increase of summer temperatures by 20C.
  12. 12. Changes In Water And Hydrology Tomich Glacier In Katunskiy BR: 1970 (Photo: V. Galakhov)• 60-65% or total water influx is caused by melting of ice and snow.• Glaciers retreated 2008 (Photo: O. Ostanin) by 19,7% during 1952-2004 (Nosenko, Khromova, 2010)
  13. 13. • Increase of temperatures, especially in summer season will cause intensification of glacier melting. Sophisticated research efforts are required for quantitative estimation the role of more intensive glacier melting in river discharge formation, because the increase of precipitation should also be considered.• Glacier melting will decrease the amount of water stored in glaciers and in the long-term perspective will negatively affect the river discharge in summer season.• Increased by 20% precipitation, especially in winter seasons, as projected by WWF (2001), will cause increased probability of extreme floods.
  14. 14. Ecosystem Response: Biodiversity Modern (a) and projected for 2090 (б) number of flora species (after Chebakova, Parfenova, Assessment report, 2009). 0 – water, 1 – up to 100, 2 – 100-300, 3 – 300- 600, 4 – 600-900, 5 – 900-1200, 6 – 1200- 1500, 7 – 1500-1800, 8 – 1800-2100, 9 – 2100- 3000, 10 – 3000-4000.• For the Altai mountains the increase of the number of flora species is expected caused by northward migration of the steppe and desert species from Mongolia.
  15. 15. Ecosystem Response: Upper Treeline• upward shift of the treeline (by 50-100 m for 2090) and subalpine shrubs (by 100-200 m) (Mikhailov et al., 1992)• fragmentation of alpine ecosystems.
  16. 16. Land Use Scenario• 2010 - 2019:• Construction of the mini- hydropower station at the Multa river• Organization of the touristic complex in Verkh- Ujmon village• Wood-processing enterprise in Ognyevka village• Livestock enterprises in large villages• Small enterprises on medicinal plants packaging Source: Long-term complex program of socio-• 2019-2029: economic development of Ust-Koksa district,• Construction of large all- 2009 year ski resort
  17. 17. Environmental Concerns• Generally reduced (in comparison with current state) pressure on wildlife from poaching caused by increased employment and income of local people;• Increased grazing pressure on summer pastures up to the level of 1985;• At transport-accessed sites the rate of deforestation will increase by demand of wood- processing industry, however, this negative impact will occur at limited locations of small area.
  18. 18. Maral (Red deer) farm Climate Change Global Market Actors: Local people InstitutionsEnvironment: Socio-economic realm:-Changes of plant composition, -Changes of land use (extensivespp richness, … way of farm development)- decrease of the resources - lands used to be in collectiveof medicinal plants traditional use are in private farm,- increase of erosion so people can’t use it for grazing,-change of migrations hayfields, apiaries, collection ofof wild ungulates medicinal plants-Degradation of surrounding lands - Decrease of income of local people(over use)
  19. 19. Adaptation Strategy - principlesThe aim: to maintain ecosystem services ofthe territory of Katunskiy BR and to reducethe vulnerability of local communities toglobal change,Guiding principles:Usage of adaptive management to maintainflexibilityMonitoring and tracking changes in weather,hydrology, ecosystems and land useIdentification of possible futures throughmodelingMaintaining the resiliency of ecosystems andminimizing stress at the core zoneRaising public awareness on the effects ofglobal changeImplementation of demonstration project onsustainable use of natural resources inchanging conditions
  20. 20. Adaptation Strategy Objectives• Further designing of the monitoring program to adequately detect the signals of the effects of climate change and land use onto the natural ecosystems.• Strengthening the partnerships with research institutions for conducting modeling of changes in hydrology, biodiversity and ecosystems.• Implementation of connectivity conservation principles .• Development of educational and interpretative programs on the global change-related issues for different target groups (children, farmers, decision-makers, visitors etc.)• Implementation of demonstration projects: – alternative energy supply (solar batteries, mini hydropower schemes) – sustainable tourism (focused on the most stressed areas in the transition zone) – diversification of vulnerable economies (maral farms).
  21. 21. Development of monitoring systemMonitoring of key biophysicalparameters along altitudinalgradients: •snow depth and water content, •air temperature • Establishing altitudinal profiles to monitor the dynamics of upper treeline
  22. 22. Demonstration project on sustainable tourismCreation of recreationalinfrastructure (camping sites)Training for local unemployedpeople as guides
  23. 23. Demonstration project on alternative energy supply• Installation of the solar batteries at the ranger stations of the reserve Financial support from US Fish and Wildlife Service
  24. 24. Acknowledgements• UNESCO-MAB• UNESCO Moscow Office• Institute of Geography RAS• Russian MAB Committee• UNDP-ICI Altai-Sayan Project• US Fish and Wildlife Service Thank you for your attention