The Space Report 2013 andPioneering: Sustaining U.S. Leadership in SpaceMicah Walter-RangeDirector – Research and AnalysisApril 12, 2013
• The Space Report 2013– Major developments and trends in 2012– Forecasts for the future• Pioneering: Sustaining U.S. Leadership in Space– NASA’s current situation– Recommendations for U.S. civil space– ASA Vision for Space Exploration in the context of Pioneering– The role of the states
• Space Products and Services• The Space Economy• Space Infrastructure• Workforce and Education• Perspective
The remaining slides drawn from The Space Report 2013have been removed for online posting due to theproprietary nature of the data.The report is available for purchase fromwww.TheSpaceReport.org
• NASA’s current position• Space leadership• The Pioneering Doctrine• Specific Recommendations
• Flat budgets• Hard to grow support• Instability• Mission creepPositive Signs Reasons for ConcernIn this environment, it is essential to set priorities!
• Not to develop a specific device• Not to ship people to a destination• Not to produce ancillary benefits (although those arehighly desirable as seen below)
• People want NASA to be a leader• However, NASA cannot lead everything effectively• Many common “solutions” miss the problem• NASA’s issues come from history, organizational culture• NASA’s purpose should be capacity building
• Pioneering is:1. being among those who first enter a region to open itfor use and development by others2. being one of a group that builds and preparesinfrastructure precursors, in advance of others
• Access– Developing the ability to get to and operate at a destination• Exploration– Learning about risks and opportunities at a destination• Utilization– Turning theoretical potential into usable technology• Transition– Handing off capabilities to other government or private actors
• Pioneering IS NOT– Human spaceflight only– Exploration only– Hostile to basic research– A call to cancel anything• Pioneering IS– A mandate and mechanism for carrying that out– A common reference framework to better compare efforts
Amend the Space Acta) NASA right now is required to do everything (civil)b) Issues with prioritization and deflectionStreamline the national civil space enterprisea) Divest: Gentle glide path to divest unrelated tasks1) Activities still resident at NASA funded with pass-through2) For remaining activities, switch from enabling to implementingb) Consolidate: Hard targets for infrastructure reduction1) Housecleaning, incentives to break from archivist mindset2) Use independent auditors. Emulate existing mechanisms.c) Commercialization1) Build on ongoing efforts and capture lessons learned2) Solicit further ideas from industry; open an RFI for concepts
Stabilize NASA leadership and planninga) Administrator: 5-year renewable term (dismissal for cause)1) Clarity of purpose permits effective evaluation2) Cause includes poor performance, but not an at-will appointmentb) 10-year, 30-year plan by NASA to Congress every 5 years1) Report every 5 years, include report on last 5 years2) 10-year plan with concrete specifics, 30-year plan for conceptsc) Congressional Commission1) Headed by Administrator (or designee)2) Mix of Presidential, Congressional proxies: trusted access3) Regular, ongoing planning process
Stabilize NASA fundinga) Use different appropriations tools to increase stability1) Navy shipbuilding, National Defense Sealift Fund2) Mix of appropriations toolsA. Revolving FundB. Advance appropriationsC. Multi-year appropriationsb) Increasing accountability1) NASA 2005 Authorization Act, §1032) Programs in breach fall out to year-by-year appropriation
• The primary goals are to help maintain U.S. leadershipat the forefront of aerospace research and development,as well as to enhance states’ competitiveness in globalaerospace markets.
• Areas of alignment between Pioneering and the ASA arehighlighted in green text.• The ASA vision for space exploration… is designed tostimulate industry growth by:– matching common space exploration goals with complementaryresources and capabilities among space-faring nations topromote collaborative utilization of assets (technological andhuman) that can reduce the costs and enhance the benefits ofspace missions;– fostering public-private partnerships that strategically apportionintellectual and technical assets among government andcorporate entities to maximize efficiencies and acceleratetimetables for mission planning and implementation;
– promoting long-term, community-based advocacy for aerospaceinitiatives that reach beyond the policies and priorities ofindividual Administrations and Congresses to enable sustainableprograms over decadal time periods; and– focusing on initiatives that embrace a broad range ofapplications and deliverables through a balanced programinvolving both robotic and human exploration that can:• advance space science, education and commerce;• test, validate and deploy new technologies that can extract• and utilize extraterrestrial resources in-situ; and thereby• enhance humankind’s ability to establish affordable and• sustainable settlements beyond low-Earth orbit.
• Responsibilities– Enable execution of NASA activities– Promote transition of capabilities out of NASA– Develop workforce• Benefits– Long-term stability– Improved access to space– Potential for greater industry growth– Inspirational effect on students
Space Foundation websitewww.spacefoundation.orgThe Space Report 2013www.thespacereport.orgPioneering: Sustaining U.S. Leadership in Spacewww.spacefoundation.org/research/pioneeringMicah Walter-RangeEmail: firstname.lastname@example.orgPhone: (202) 618-3062