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The Future of Automation and Its Implications for Educational Systems

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The threat of automation implies a race between education and technology. In most countries, education systems are not providing workers with the skills necessary to compete in today’s job markets. The growing mismatch between skills demand and supply holds back economic growth and undermines opportunities. At the same time, the returns to human capital are high in most countries, and a growing skills premium is evident in much of the world. Automation simultaneously results in deskilling and imposes a need for new skills, and is changing what education will need to look like in the future.

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The Future of Automation and Its Implications for Educational Systems

  1. 1. The Future of Automation and Implications for Education Systems Harry Anthony Patrinos November 2018 @hpatrinos
  2. 2. • The threat of automation • Education systems • Growing skill premiums • Deskilling and new skills The Future of Automation and Implications for Education Systems
  3. 3. • Who is ready for automation? • How can we prepare? • What can policy makers do now? • What don’t we know? The Future of Automation and Implications for Education Systems
  4. 4. The Schooling Revolution Years of schooling Source: http://www.barrolee.com/
  5. 5. Every Year of Schooling Raises Earnings 9-10%
  6. 6. 11.0 7.2 14.8 Primary Secondary Tertiary Private Returns to Schooling Psacharopoulos, Montenegro, Patrinos. 2016. Education Financing Priorities. Report to the Education CommissionPsacharopoulos, Montenegro, Patrinos. 2016. Education Financing Priorities. Report to the Education Commission
  7. 7. Returns Higher for Women 9.6 11.5 Men WomenMontenegro, C., H.A. Patrinos. 2014. Comparable estimates of returns to schooling around the world. World Bank Policy Research Working Paper Series 7020
  8. 8. Returns to Alternative Investments (%)
  9. 9. Access Quality Skill shift
  10. 10. Access • 264 million out of school • 262 million in school but can’t read • 1 in 4 Young People in Developing Countries Unable to Read UNESCO
  11. 11. Quality of Education Gaps
  12. 12. Skills Demanded by Labor Market Changing
  13. 13. Growing Importance of Social Skills at Work
  14. 14. Automation is Coming
  15. 15. Keynes Economic Possibilities for our Grandchildren (1930) • End of poverty • Advances in technology to propel growth • 15 hour work week
  16. 16. Stephen Hawking: the emergence of artificial intelligence could be the "worst event in the history of our civilization"
  17. 17. Kurzweil 2005. The singularity is near: When humans transcend biology
  18. 18. 4th Industrial Revolution https://www.allaboutlean.com/industry-4-0/
  19. 19. 47% of Total US Employment at Risk Risky jobs • Bookkeeping • Cooks • Postal service mail carriers, sorters • Executive secretaries • Farmworkers • Sewing machine operators • Tellers • Cutting, punching, machine setters • Switchboard operators • Computer programmers
  20. 20. Japanese company replaces workers with AI
  21. 21. 0 10 20 30 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 The Race Between Education & Technology Higher Education Enrollment Rate Rate of Return to Higher Education Tinbergen, Jan. 1974. Substitution of Graduate by Other Labour. Kyklos, 27:2 Montenegro and Patrinos
  22. 22. Who are most at risk to automation?
  23. 23. Schooling related with automation-safe jobs 0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 literacy skills (in SD) primary lower secondary vocational upper secondary general upper secondary technical post- secondary academic post- secondary highest education (relative to no education) Probability of being in a automation-safe occupation
  24. 24. 0 0.02 0.04 0.06 0.08 0.1 0.12 400 420 440 460 480 500 520 540 Increaseinprobability PISA literacy scores (2015) Learning related with automation-safe jobs
  25. 25. Increasing learning outcomes is a challenge 0 25 50 75 100 percent attaining level 2 or higher percent attaining level 5 or higher Percent of 15 year-olds attaining minimum and advanced proficiency Lower middle income Upper middle income High income
  26. 26. Vocational deemphasizes cognitive skills -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 Numberofgradesdifferenceinliteracyachievement GDP per capita (constant 2010 US$) Upper middle income High income
  27. 27. Implications for education systems: challenges •Increasing educational attainment is expensive •Increasing cognitive skills is difficult •Evidence on how to improve non-cognitive skills is limited
  28. 28. What can we do?
  29. 29. Focus on early reading
  30. 30. Get the Basics Right Education Commission
  31. 31. Learn from the best 537 538 538 542 545 548 562 563 563 581 Kazakhstan Russian Federation Ireland Estonia Macao SAR, China Finland Hong Kong SAR, China Korea, Rep. Japan Singapore
  32. 32. Invest in Relevant Skills Problem-solving Learning Communication Personal Social
  33. 33. Build Education 4.0 1st Schoolhouse, teacher, students 2nd Collaboration, technology, facilitator 3rd Connected, personalized, open access 4th Lifelong learning driven by autonomy & purpose
  34. 34. How to Finance University
  35. 35. 1. Focus on basic skills first 2. Raise productivity of schooling 3. Teach relevant skills 4. Avoid early specialization 5. Finance higher education Summing up
  36. 36. What should future research focus on? •Raise productivity of schooling •Teach relevant skills •Finance education •Use technology
  37. 37. @hpatrinos Harry Anthony Patrinos World Bank

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