An Introduction t the     A I t d ti to thEconomics Center’s Commercial co o cs Ce te s Co       e ca Property Value Forec...
What is Innovative about               Our Model?  Developed specifically for your community, based on  local data (Underl...
How Our Model Works
Model InputCurrent Year                               2011                           Taxing District 1          Taxing Dis...
Model InputCurrent Year                               2011                           Taxing District 1          Taxing Dis...
Model Input                                               pCurrent Year                                   2011            ...
What does Our Model do?
Our Model Output Example                      p       pReporting Year               2011           2012           2013    ...
Our Model Output ExampleReporting Year               2011           2012           2013                  2014          201...
Our Model Output ExampleReporting Year               2011           2012           2013                  2014          201...
Our Model Output ExampleReporting Year               2011           2012           2013                  2014          201...
Our Model Output ExampleReporting Year               2011           2012           2013                  2014          201...
Our Model Output ExampleReporting Year               2011           2012           2013                  2014          201...
Our Model Output ExampleReporting Year               2011           2012           2013                  2014          201...
Adjustment Factor Illustration  j   TIF Actual 2002           2003   2004   2005   2006   2007   2008
Adjustment Factor IllustrationTIF ActualTIF Predicted1 (base)2002            2003    2004   2005   2006   2007   2008
Adjustment Factor IllustrationTIF ActualTIF Predicted1 (base)2002            2003    2004   2005   2006   2007   2008
Adjustment Factor Illustration  TIF Actual  TIF Predicted1 (base)  TIF Predicted2 (adj)2002            2003      2004   20...
Additional InformationFull Product includes:  Customized forecast model and  documentation Presentations to your staff and...
Flexible PricingDepends on:  The number of taxing districts, TIF districts  Number of presentations to your community  lea...
Thank you                            Jennifer Pitzer                                   f                          Research...
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Commercial Property Value Webinar

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The Economics Center created an analytical tool to forecast commercial property values and TIF revenues for TIF districts. This tool is simple and dynamic, requiring a minimum amount of user input but still flexible in constructing optimistic and pessimistic forecasts to approximate a variety of underlying conditions.

Published in: Business, Real Estate
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Commercial Property Value Webinar

  1. 1. An Introduction t the A I t d ti to thEconomics Center’s Commercial co o cs Ce te s Co e ca Property Value Forecast Model Economics Center E i C t University of Cincinnati
  2. 2. What is Innovative about Our Model? Developed specifically for your community, based on local data (Underlying model can be updated on a 3- year cycle) Requires minimal User Input User can “force” a current year estimate before updated property value data are available – Forced estimate carries through 10 year projections 10-year User may also adjust the model to account for out-of-trend changes prior to updating of underlying modelProduce forecasts for various conditions
  3. 3. How Our Model Works
  4. 4. Model InputCurrent Year 2011 Taxing District 1 Taxing District 2Effective Millage 60 52Proportion TIF 85.00% 75.00%Adjustment Factor 0.12 0.00 Actual Residential Value Actual Commercial (TIF total) ValueReporting Year Taxing District 1 Taxing District 2 Taxing District 1 Taxing District 2 2006 $ 72,966,980 $ 296,316,294 $ 95,630,884 $ 64,307,664 2007 $ 75,301,923 $ 311,132,108 $ 101,368,738 $ 70,738,431 2008 $ 77,711,585 77 711 585 $ 326,688,714 326 688 714 $ 107 450 862 107,450,862 $ 77,812,274 77 812 274 2009 $ 80,198,356 $ 343,023,150 $ 113,897,914 $ 85,593,501 2010 ENTER VALUE ENTER VALUE ENTER VALUE ENTER VALUE
  5. 5. Model InputCurrent Year 2011 Taxing District 1 Taxing District 2Effective Millage 60 52Proportion TIF 85.00% 75.00%Adjustment Factor 0.12 0.00 Actual R id ti l V l A t l Residential Value Actual Commercial (TIF t t l) V l A t lC i l total) ValueReporting Year Taxing District 1 Taxing District 2 Taxing District 1 Taxing District 2 2006 $ 72,966,980 $ 296,316,294 $ 95,630,884 $ 64,307,664 2007 $ 75,301,923 $ 311,132,108 $ 101,368,738 $ 70,738,431 2008 $ 77,711,585 $ 326,688,714 $ 107,450,862 $ 77,812,274 2009 $ 80,198,356 $ 343,023,150 $ 113,897,914 $ 85,593,501 2010 ENTER VALUE ENTER VALUE ENTER VALUE ENTER VALUE
  6. 6. Model Input pCurrent Year 2011 Taxing District 1 Taxing District 2Effective Millage 60 52Proportion TIF 85.00% 75.00%Adjustment Factor dj 0.12 0.00 Actual Residential Value Actual Commercial (TIF total) ValueReporting Year Taxing District 1 Taxing District 2 Taxing District 1 Taxing District 2 2006 $ 72,966,980 $ 296,316,294 $ 95,630,884 $ 64,307,664 2007 $ 75,301,923 $ 311,132,108 $ 101,368,738 $ 70,738,431 2008 $ 77,711,585 $ 326,688,714 $ 107,450,862 $ 77,812,274 2009 $ 80,198,356 $ 343,023,150 $ 113,897,914 $ 85,593,501 2010 ENTER VALUE ENTER VALUE ENTER VALUE ENTER VALUE
  7. 7. What does Our Model do?
  8. 8. Our Model Output Example p pReporting Year 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Estimate ForecastTotal TIF RevenueLow Estimate $ 3,201,429 $ 3,794,064 $ 3,891,348 $ 4,049,886 $ 4,234,136High Estimate $ 3,201,429 $ 3,934,969 $ 4,035,866 $ 4,199,757 $ 4,389,678Taxing District 1Low estimateTotal Property Value p y $ 113,897,914 $137,561,308 $141,088,521 $147,120,894 $154,424,963Estimated TIF Value $ 96,813,226 $116,927,112 $119,925,243 $125,052,760 $131,261,218Estimated TIF Revenue $ 2,033,078 $ 2,455,469 $ 2,518,430 $ 2,626,108 $ 2,756,486High EstimateHi h E ti tTotal Property Value $ 113,897,914 $152,041,446 $155,939,944 $162,607,304 $170,680,222Estimated TIF Value $ 96,813,226 $129,235,229 $132,548,953 $138,216,209 $145,078,189Estimated TIF Revenue $ 2,033,078 $ 2,713,940 $ 2,783,528 $ 2,902,540 $ 3,046,642
  9. 9. Our Model Output ExampleReporting Year 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Estimate ForecastTotal TIF RevenueLow Estimate $ 3,201,429 $ 3,794,064 $ 3,891,348 $ 4,049,886 $ 4,234,136High Estimate $ 3,201,429 $ 3,934,969 $ 4,035,866 $ 4,199,757 $ 4,389,678Taxing District 1Low estimateTotal Property Value p y $ 113,897,914 $137,561,308 $141,088,521 $147,120,894 $154,424,963Estimated TIF Value $ 96,813,226 $116,927,112 $119,925,243 $125,052,760 $131,261,218Estimated TIF Revenue $ 2,033,078 $ 2,455,469 $ 2,518,430 $ 2,626,108 $ 2,756,486High EstimateHi h E ti tTotal Property Value $ 113,897,914 $152,041,446 $155,939,944 $162,607,304 $170,680,222Estimated TIF Value $ 96,813,226 $129,235,229 $132,548,953 $138,216,209 $145,078,189Estimated TIF Revenue $ 2,033,078 $ 2,713,940 $ 2,783,528 $ 2,902,540 $ 3,046,642
  10. 10. Our Model Output ExampleReporting Year 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Estimate ForecastTotal TIF RevenueLow Estimate $ 3,201,429 $ 3,794,064 $ 3,891,348 $ 4,049,886 $ 4,234,136High Estimate $ 3,201,429 $ 3,934,969 $ 4,035,866 $ 4,199,757 $ 4,389,678Taxing District 1Low estimateTotal Property Value p y $ 113,897,914 $137,561,308 $141,088,521 $147,120,894 $154,424,963Estimated TIF Value $ 96,813,226 $116,927,112 $119,925,243 $125,052,760 $131,261,218Estimated TIF Revenue $ 2,033,078 $ 2,455,469 $ 2,518,430 $ 2,626,108 $ 2,756,486High EstimateHi h E ti tTotal Property Value $ 113,897,914 $152,041,446 $155,939,944 $162,607,304 $170,680,222Estimated TIF Value $ 96,813,226 $129,235,229 $132,548,953 $138,216,209 $145,078,189Estimated TIF Revenue $ 2,033,078 $ 2,713,940 $ 2,783,528 $ 2,902,540 $ 3,046,642
  11. 11. Our Model Output ExampleReporting Year 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Estimate ForecastTotal TIF RevenueLow Estimate $ 3,201,429 $ 3,794,064 $ 3,891,348 $ 4,049,886 $ 4,234,136High Estimate $ 3,201,429 $ 3,934,969 $ 4,035,866 $ 4,199,757 $ 4,389,678Taxing District 1Low estimateTotal Property Value p y $ 113,897,914 $137,561,308 $141,088,521 $147,120,894 $154,424,963Estimated TIF Value $ 96,813,226 $116,927,112 $119,925,243 $125,052,760 $131,261,218Estimated TIF Revenue $ 2,033,078 $ 2,455,469 $ 2,518,430 $ 2,626,108 $ 2,756,486High EstimateHi h E ti tTotal Property Value $ 113,897,914 $152,041,446 $155,939,944 $162,607,304 $170,680,222Estimated TIF Value $ 96,813,226 $129,235,229 $132,548,953 $138,216,209 $145,078,189Estimated TIF Revenue $ 2,033,078 $ 2,713,940 $ 2,783,528 $ 2,902,540 $ 3,046,642
  12. 12. Our Model Output ExampleReporting Year 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Estimate ForecastTotal TIF RevenueLow Estimate $ 3,201,429 $ 3,794,064 $ 3,891,348 $ 4,049,886 $ 4,234,136High Estimate $ 3,201,429 $ 3,934,969 $ 4,035,866 $ 4,199,757 $ 4,389,678Taxing District 1Low estimateTotal Property Value p y $ 113,897,914 $137,561,308 $141,088,521 $147,120,894 $154,424,963Estimated TIF Value $ 96,813,226 $116,927,112 $119,925,243 $125,052,760 $131,261,218Estimated TIF Revenue $ 2,033,078 $ 2,455,469 $ 2,518,430 $ 2,626,108 $ 2,756,486High EstimateHi h E ti tTotal Property Value $ 113,897,914 $152,041,446 $155,939,944 $162,607,304 $170,680,222Estimated TIF Value $ 96,813,226 $129,235,229 $132,548,953 $138,216,209 $145,078,189Estimated TIF Revenue $ 2,033,078 $ 2,713,940 $ 2,783,528 $ 2,902,540 $ 3,046,642
  13. 13. Our Model Output ExampleReporting Year 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Estimate ForecastTotal TIF RevenueLow Estimate $ 3,201,429 $ 3,794,064 $ 3,891,348 $ 4,049,886 $ 4,234,136High Estimate $ 3,201,429 $ 3,934,969 $ 4,035,866 $ 4,199,757 $ 4,389,678Taxing District 1Low estimateTotal Property Value p y $ 113,897,914 $137,561,308 $141,088,521 $147,120,894 $154,424,963Estimated TIF Value $ 96,813,226 $116,927,112 $119,925,243 $125,052,760 $131,261,218Estimated TIF Revenue $ 2,033,078 $ 2,455,469 $ 2,518,430 $ 2,626,108 $ 2,756,486High EstimateHi h E ti tTotal Property Value $ 113,897,914 $152,041,446 $155,939,944 $162,607,304 $170,680,222Estimated TIF Value $ 96,813,226 $129,235,229 $132,548,953 $138,216,209 $145,078,189Estimated TIF Revenue $ 2,033,078 $ 2,713,940 $ 2,783,528 $ 2,902,540 $ 3,046,642
  14. 14. Our Model Output ExampleReporting Year 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Estimate ForecastTotal TIF RevenueLow Estimate $ 3,201,429 $ 3,794,064 $ 3,891,348 $ 4,049,886 $ 4,234,136High Estimate $ 3,201,429 $ 3,934,969 $ 4,035,866 $ 4,199,757 $ 4,389,678Taxing District 1Low estimateTotal Property Value p y $ 113,897,914 $137,561,308 $141,088,521 $147,120,894 $154,424,963Estimated TIF Value $ 96,813,226 $116,927,112 $119,925,243 $125,052,760 $131,261,218Estimated TIF Revenue $ 2,033,078 $ 2,455,469 $ 2,518,430 $ 2,626,108 $ 2,756,486High EstimateHi h E ti tTotal Property Value $ 113,897,914 $152,041,446 $155,939,944 $162,607,304 $170,680,222Estimated TIF Value $ 96,813,226 $129,235,229 $132,548,953 $138,216,209 $145,078,189Estimated TIF Revenue $ 2,033,078 $ 2,713,940 $ 2,783,528 $ 2,902,540 $ 3,046,642
  15. 15. Adjustment Factor Illustration j TIF Actual 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
  16. 16. Adjustment Factor IllustrationTIF ActualTIF Predicted1 (base)2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
  17. 17. Adjustment Factor IllustrationTIF ActualTIF Predicted1 (base)2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
  18. 18. Adjustment Factor Illustration TIF Actual TIF Predicted1 (base) TIF Predicted2 (adj)2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
  19. 19. Additional InformationFull Product includes: Customized forecast model and documentation Presentations to your staff and community y y leaders to explain the model and train to use Support with updating forecast input
  20. 20. Flexible PricingDepends on: The number of taxing districts, TIF districts Number of presentations to your community leader and stakeholdersUpdates to underlying model are priced separatelyU d d l i d l i d l
  21. 21. Thank you Jennifer Pitzer f Research Associate jennifer.pitzer@uc.edu j p (513)556-2491 www.economicsresearch.orgClient Testimonial:“The TIF Model is intuitive, easy and flexible for reporting to the Township Trustees to help them understand the resources that Deerfield Township may hhave available. The Trustees really appreciate h i a t l th t can il bl Th T t ll i t having tool that inform planning for the future, beyond the upcoming year.” - John Wahle, Fiscal Officer, Deerfield Township

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