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www.semiosearch.lt/training
PART 2 of TREND TRAINING COURSE
WHAT IS A TREND?
TREND ANALYSIS FRAMEWORK
CONTENTS
The main purpose of this lesson is to
introduce the trend analysis framework. We
will start with the main parts o...
www.semiosearch.lt/training
go to
for all previous lessons
TREND ANALYSIS
FRAMEWORK
identifying a trend is firstly and
most importantly identifying
change
TREND AS CHANGE
a trend is not an isolated
phenomenon, it is a
combination of changes
OUR MAIN THESIS
INNOVATION
LANDSCAPE
MACRO-
DIMENSIONS
FUNDAMENTAL
LEVEL
Innovation landscape encompasses
business and organizational
inno...
INNOVATION
LANDSCAPE
INNOVATION
LANDSCAPE
Innovation landscape is where we look at businesses and
organizations looking for emergent innovation...
INNOVATION
LANDSCAPE
it is important to expand the focus into surrounding industries and
look for innovations that are bas...
MACRO-DIMENSIONS
MACRO-DIMENSIONS
macro-dimensions describe different areas that
have influence on our lives
culture lifestyle consumption ...
culture lifestyle consumption environment
governance organizations technology
community demographics education
we are look...
VALUES AND BEHAVIORS
behaviors and needsbeliefs and values
FUNDAMENTAL LEVEL
This is called the FUNDAMENTAL LEVEL for a reason. It
means that t...
behaviors and needsbeliefs and values
FUNDAMENTAL LEVEL
A SYSTEM AN EXPRESSION
we can not witness beliefs and values direc...
1. BELIEFS
AND VALUES
The ideological system
that underlies all
changes and evaluation
or reception of change.
2. BEHAVIOR...
a trend is a systemic change
that manifests itself on the four
levels of the trend framework
OUR WORKING DEFINITION OF A T...
MEGA-TRENDS
FAD
trends can be understood as a specific hierarchy
where the most general and pervasive trends are
tagged as...
MEGA-TRENDS
FAD
TREND TREND TREND
FAD
abstract and
general
specific and
localized
too broad to be
applicable
too short-liv...
MEGA-TREND
A MEGA-TREND
An over-arching trend that manifests
itself across at least several industries and
is related to changes in a...
A MEGA-TREND
NATURAL LIVING
An over-arching trend that manifests
itself across at least several industries and
is related ...
TREND
A TREND
is a change that is reflected in
innovations, macro-dimensions and that
expresses our values and beliefs
A TREND
is a change that is reflected in
innovations, macro-dimensions and that
expresses our values and beliefs
INNOVATIO...
A TREND
is a change that is reflected in
innovations, macro-dimensions and that
expresses our values and beliefs
INNOVATIO...
A TREND
is a change that is reflected in
innovations, macro-dimensions and that
expresses our values and beliefs
INNOVATIO...
A TREND AND A
MEGA-TREND
a trend describes changes within a
specified space in our lives, a combination
of trends can cons...
A TREND AND A
MEGA-TREND
identifying a mega-trend is important as it allows
to define the relationships between separate
t...
AUTHENTICITY
MOVEMENT
could be considered a mega-trend as it can
be manifested across different industries and
result in c...
AUTHENTICITY
MOVEMENT
could be considered a mega-trend as it can
be manifested across different industries and
result in c...
A FAD
-A FAD-
can be one of the following:
SHORT-LIVED
TREND
A short-lived trend that does not connect to the
fundamental level,...
NOT EVERYTHING
THAT FAILS IS A
FAD
specific trends fail all the time – it doesn’t mean that
they are something to be ignor...
WHY SHOULD WE USE THE FRAMEWORK?
ANALYSIS TOOL
EVALUATION TOOL
The trend framework serves a couple of purposes:
www.semiosearch.lt/training
go to
for all previous lessons
www.semiosearch.lt/training
TREND TRAINING COURSE
WHAT IS A TREND?
- END OF PART 2 -
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TREND RESEARCH and MANAGEMENT: what is a trend? (PART 2)

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This is the second part of trend research and management training course that is available at:

http://semiosearch.lt/training/

This presentation covers the essential requirements for a trend and outlines trend analysis framework.

Published in: Business

TREND RESEARCH and MANAGEMENT: what is a trend? (PART 2)

  1. 1. www.semiosearch.lt/training PART 2 of TREND TRAINING COURSE WHAT IS A TREND? TREND ANALYSIS FRAMEWORK
  2. 2. CONTENTS The main purpose of this lesson is to introduce the trend analysis framework. We will start with the main parts of the framework and go through the different types of trends. -TREND ANALYSIS FRAMEWORK -INNOVATION LANDSCAPE -MACRO-DIMENSIONS -VALUES AND BEHAVIORS -DIFFERENT TYPES OF TRENDS -FINAL REMARKS THIS LESSON In the next lessons we will further explore how each part and their combination work. NEXT LESSON
  3. 3. www.semiosearch.lt/training go to for all previous lessons
  4. 4. TREND ANALYSIS FRAMEWORK
  5. 5. identifying a trend is firstly and most importantly identifying change TREND AS CHANGE
  6. 6. a trend is not an isolated phenomenon, it is a combination of changes OUR MAIN THESIS
  7. 7. INNOVATION LANDSCAPE MACRO- DIMENSIONS FUNDAMENTAL LEVEL Innovation landscape encompasses business and organizational innovations that can appear in the form of start-ups, new features, models of operations or value creation the dimensions that have influence on our everyday lives: culture, lifestyle, consumption, environment, governance, organization, technology, community, demographics or education behaviors and needsbeliefs and values the underlying ideological system/s where every phenomenon is marked by evaluation the expression of the underlying ideological system – through stories, conversations, actions, choices and needs
  8. 8. INNOVATION LANDSCAPE
  9. 9. INNOVATION LANDSCAPE Innovation landscape is where we look at businesses and organizations looking for emergent innovations, start-ups, new features and new modes of delivery or value creation
  10. 10. INNOVATION LANDSCAPE it is important to expand the focus into surrounding industries and look for innovations that are based on the same principles or related in some way to what we identify in our starting industry/area SCOPE
  11. 11. MACRO-DIMENSIONS
  12. 12. MACRO-DIMENSIONS macro-dimensions describe different areas that have influence on our lives culture lifestyle consumption environment governance organizations technology community demographics education
  13. 13. culture lifestyle consumption environment governance organizations technology community demographics education we are looking at shifts, events and changes in any of the macro-dimensions or any other life- affecting spheres that come in between (i. e. scarcity of resources) WHAT TO LOOK FOR?
  14. 14. VALUES AND BEHAVIORS
  15. 15. behaviors and needsbeliefs and values FUNDAMENTAL LEVEL This is called the FUNDAMENTAL LEVEL for a reason. It means that the changes that happen on this level are tectonic and can be observed over longer periods of time this describes the ideological system with all possible positions or states and evaluations of these positions (positive, neutral, negative, unmarked) that we base our actions upon behaviors and needs is already a specific expression of the ideological system – it’s how we choose to act, evaluate our actions, expect and demand from others and our environment A SYSTEM AN EXPRESSION
  16. 16. behaviors and needsbeliefs and values FUNDAMENTAL LEVEL A SYSTEM AN EXPRESSION we can not witness beliefs and values directly – we first need to observe how people act, talk, express their opinions, choose or ignore things. From this we can reconstruct the underlying value system.
  17. 17. 1. BELIEFS AND VALUES The ideological system that underlies all changes and evaluation or reception of change. 2. BEHAVIORS AND NEEDS Specific expressions of our ideological system through conversations, interactions, choices and needs 3. MACRO DIMENSIONS Dimensions that have influence on our everyday lives and that constitute our living environment. THE ANATOMY OF A TREND 4. INNOVATION LANDSCAPE Developments within organizational and business sectors that reveal the changing consumer needs to specificfrom abstract
  18. 18. a trend is a systemic change that manifests itself on the four levels of the trend framework OUR WORKING DEFINITION OF A TREND
  19. 19. MEGA-TRENDS FAD trends can be understood as a specific hierarchy where the most general and pervasive trends are tagged as macro-trends and the most localized and disconnected ones are classified as fads DIFFERENT TYPES TREND TREND TREND FAD OF TRENDS
  20. 20. MEGA-TRENDS FAD TREND TREND TREND FAD abstract and general specific and localized too broad to be applicable too short-lived and specific to be applied higher certainty lower certainty
  21. 21. MEGA-TREND
  22. 22. A MEGA-TREND An over-arching trend that manifests itself across at least several industries and is related to changes in at least several macro-dimensions. A mega-trend marks a shift in values and beliefs.
  23. 23. A MEGA-TREND NATURAL LIVING An over-arching trend that manifests itself across at least several industries and is related to changes in at least several macro-dimensions. A mega-trend marks a shift in values and beliefs. and also was related to changes in consumption habits, communication and branding, sourcing and production practices the quest for natural living has resulted in changes and innovations across a number of industries
  24. 24. TREND
  25. 25. A TREND is a change that is reflected in innovations, macro-dimensions and that expresses our values and beliefs
  26. 26. A TREND is a change that is reflected in innovations, macro-dimensions and that expresses our values and beliefs INNOVATIONS trend manifests itself through industry innovations – the stronger the trend, the more innovations will proliferate across different and sometimes unrelated industries
  27. 27. A TREND is a change that is reflected in innovations, macro-dimensions and that expresses our values and beliefs INNOVATIONS MACRO-DIMENSIONS trends resonate through shifts and changes in our environments, be it communities, organizations or consumption patterns
  28. 28. A TREND is a change that is reflected in innovations, macro-dimensions and that expresses our values and beliefs INNOVATIONS MACRO-DIMENSIONS VALUES, BELIEFS trends resonate with values, beliefs – this is the deepest level that allows the trend to rise to prominence
  29. 29. A TREND AND A MEGA-TREND a trend describes changes within a specified space in our lives, a combination of trends can constitute a mega-trend A TREND a mega-trend is an abstract concept that explains changes happening in multiple dimensions A MEGA-TREND
  30. 30. A TREND AND A MEGA-TREND identifying a mega-trend is important as it allows to define the relationships between separate trends, but is not as actionable and specific as a specific trend ACTIONABLE
  31. 31. AUTHENTICITY MOVEMENT could be considered a mega-trend as it can be manifested across different industries and result in changes of our relationship with business practices, consumption and environment AN EXAMPLE
  32. 32. AUTHENTICITY MOVEMENT could be considered a mega-trend as it can be manifested across different industries and result in changes of our relationship with business practices, consumption and environment CRAFT CULTURE it just a specific trend that makes a part of the authenticity movement AN EXAMPLE
  33. 33. A FAD
  34. 34. -A FAD- can be one of the following: SHORT-LIVED TREND A short-lived trend that does not connect to the fundamental level, i. e. values, beliefs and needs, and that does not have a strong connection to the changes in the macro-dimensions of our lives EXPRESSION OF A TREND A particular expression of a trend within a specific field that does not hold for long and loses its momentum. Usually tied just to a particular industry.
  35. 35. NOT EVERYTHING THAT FAILS IS A FAD specific trends fail all the time – it doesn’t mean that they are something to be ignored. Your task is to identify whether the trend that failed connects to something bigger or not. If it does, you will likely see it resurface.
  36. 36. WHY SHOULD WE USE THE FRAMEWORK? ANALYSIS TOOL EVALUATION TOOL The trend framework serves a couple of purposes:
  37. 37. www.semiosearch.lt/training go to for all previous lessons
  38. 38. www.semiosearch.lt/training TREND TRAINING COURSE WHAT IS A TREND? - END OF PART 2 -

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