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Public Lecture Slides (7.9.2018) Sino-Japanese Power Politics


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Sino-Japanese Power Politics: 
Might, Money and Minds

Speaker: Dr. Giulio Pugliese, Lecturer in War Studies at King’s College London

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Public Lecture Slides (7.9.2018) Sino-Japanese Power Politics

  1. 1. Japan-China Power Politics: Might, Money and Minds The Foreign Correspondents’ Club of Japan July 9, 2018 Giulio Pugliese – Twitter handle: @PugliesAsia
  2. 2. Outline of Today’s Presentation • Might: Importance of Balancing • Money: Economic Statecraft and Geo-Economic Competition • Minds: Sino-Japanese Propaganda Race
  3. 3. The International Structure • Structural Realism: states cooperate, balance or compete along the incentives posed by a particular distribution of power in the international (or regional) system. • Defensive Realism variant: “Balance-of-threat” theory, states balance against perceived threats rather than against power or capabilities per se.
  4. 4. Impact of Leadership
  5. 5. Neo-Classical Realism and Sino-Japanese Relations • An increasingly unbalanced multipolar system • States balance against perceived threats. • Intentions and perception of state leaders • Xi and Abe as “paramount” leaders • China fills a vacuum, Japan balances China • Both states promote adversarial narratives Structure of International System as Independent Variable Intra-state mechanisms as Intervening Variable Foreign Policy Behavior as dependent variable
  6. 6. MIGHT: INSTITUTIONAL BUILD-UP CHINA JAPAN • 12/2013: Establishment of the National Security Council • 12/2013: Japan’s first-ever National Security Strategy -> whole of-gov’t-approach • 2013-2016: New security legislation (State Secrecy Law, Nat. Security Laws, Anti- Conspiracy Law) • Abe’s mandate until 2021? • 11/2013: Establishment of opaque CCP’s National Security Commission. • Active use of small leading groups. • Emphasis on national/domestic security • Xi as “core leader”: more than two mandates.
  7. 7. MIGHT CHINA JAPAN EXTERNAL BALANCING • 2006-2007: The Arc of Freedom and Prosperity + Quad. • 2012~: Asian Democratic Security Diamond. • 2015 US-Japan Security Guidelines • 2017~ : Free and Open Indo-Pacific + Quad? INTERNAL BALANCING • 2013: Reorganization of Coast Guard under SOA. • 2013-ongoing: militarization of the Coast Guard • 11/2013: Establishment of East China Sea Air Defense Identification Zone.
  8. 8. MONEY Geo-economics and Economic Statecraft • Geo-economics: Japan’s Indo-Pacific initiatives – China’s Belt & Road Initiative • Geo-economics II: Japan’s new Oda Charter and capacity building
  9. 9. MINDS Strategic Narratives CHINA 1. Peaceful “Self” vs. aggressive “Other” 2. Status quo “Self” vs. revisionist “Other” 3. Benevolent China versus unrepentant Japan > History used as a tool for domestic and international gains. JAPAN 1. Peaceful “Self” vs. aggressive “Other” 2. Status quo “Self” vs. revisionist “Other” 3. Democratic and lawful Japan versus autocratic, unlawful China >Simplification of the message, also for political gains
  10. 10. International Propaganda Forays CHINA • Chinese state-owned media in English • SOA publishing house • Mobilization of Chinese overseas communities • Cultural Diplomacy JAPAN • Generous PR budgets: for consumption by Prime Ministerial Executive • MOFA’s Strategic Information Dissemination: 50 billion yen (+300% in 2015), toeing Prime Minister’s line. • New institutions: Japan Houses (5 billion yen)
  11. 11. Conclusion: Détente, at last?
  12. 12. Further References: • 2017 “Japan’s Kissinger? Yachi Shōtarō: the State Behind the Curtain”, Pacific Affairs, Vol. 90, No.2 • 2017 “Kantei Diplomacy? Japan's Hybrid Leadership in Foreign and Security Policy,” The Pacific Review, Vol. 30, No.2 • 2017 “No Conflict by Invitation: Japan’s China Balancing amidst US Relative Decline”, in James Parisot and Santino Regilme (eds.), Global Cooperation or Conflict? The Rise of Emerging Powers and the Post-American World Order, London and New York: Routledge. • 2018 “Post-Cold War Sino-Japanese Relations and Japan’s China Policy: The Rise of Strategic Realism,” in James D. Brown and Jeff Kingston (eds)., Routledge Handbook of Japan’s International Relations in Asia.