US Midterm Elections: What Happened, Why it happened, and What it means Speaker: Paul Sracic Lecture video is available here: https://youtu.be/UczRVA2TdJY

1. U.S. Midterm Elections:
What Happened, Why it happened, and What it means
Paul Sracic
Chair, Department of Politics and International Relations
Youngstown State University
Visiting Fulbright Lecturer
Waseda University

2. Part 1
• What Happened?

3. U.S. House of Representatives
-435 members/need 218 members to control.
-193 current Democrats + 2 Democratic vacancies = 195 current Democrats
-195 + 23 = 218. Democrats needed to gain 23 seats in the House to have a majority
-Democrats gained at least 35 seats
-Democrats will likely have won 53% of races

4. So Far (likely):
• Democrats won 22/26 seats at risk (85%)
• Republicans won 7 out of 9 seats at risk. (78%)
• Republicans net gain will be 2 seats
• 116th Congress = 53 R – 47 D
-
U.S . Senate

6. BlueWave?

7. Legislative Outcomes
1. Democratic House/Democratic Senate
2. Republican House/Democratic Senate
3. Democratic House/Republican Senate
4. Republican House/Republican Senate

8. Part II
Why Did it Happen?

9. Midterm Rule

10. “Midterm
Rule”
Why?
• Presidential party “overperforms” in prior
election due to “presidential coattails”
Coattails
• ”Weak partisans” stay home during midterm
elections.
Surge and Decline
• Voters are evaluating the president. This
nationalizes elections.
Referendum
• Last election’s losers more motivated than
winners. Also, some voters always want to
“balance” presidential power.
Presidential Penalty

12. Gender Gap

13. Record Number of Female Candidates in 2018
A total of 256
women were on
the ballot in House
or Senate races
• 197 Democrats
• 59 Republicans
234 women
running for the
House
22 Women ran for
the Senate.

14. Record Number of Females in Congress
At least 112 Women will Serve in the 116th Congress
10 Female candidates have won election to the Senate (where 10 Women already
serve)
So Far, 92 Female candidates have won election to the House of Representatives

15. Young Kim would be the 1st Korean-
American Female elected to Congress
Republican running in
California - 39

16. Gerrymandering
• January 2018, Pennsylvania Supreme Court found Republican
Gerrymander in violation of State Constitution
• Summer of 2018, U.S. Supreme Court rejects challenge to Pennsylvania
action, but sends back cases from North Carolina and Wisconsin

17. Suburban
Switch
The richest House districts (median
household income, 2017) in 10 states
flipped from Republican to Democratic
in this election: (CO-6; GA-6; IL-6; IA-3;
KS-3; MI-11; MN-3; NJ-7; PA-7; SC-1)
UT-4 is likely to join, making 11.

18. Education
Gap?

19. Education or
Gender Gap?

20. Part III
What Does it Mean?

21. 2020 Presidential Campaign

22. 2020 Presidential Campaign

23. Who will run?

25. Impact on Trade and
Foreign Affairs
• Since Democrats won a majority of seats in
the House of Representatives, all committee
chairs will change.

26. Was it a Foreign Policy Election?

27. Foreign Policy

28. Immigration

31. November 12, 2018

32. Most
Important
Change in the
116th
Congress?
Committees in the
House of
Representatives.
Functions of
Committees?
• Oversight
• Policy Focus

33. House Armed Services Committee
• Current Chair: Mac Thornberry (R TX 13)
• Worked to moderate President Trump’s policies
• Advocated for both increased military spending and reforms of the
Pentagon’s “4th Estate”
• Outspoken supporter of Secretary of Defense Mattis
• New Chair: Adam Smith (D WA 9)
• Has been critical of Trump’s use of the military, particularly in the Middle
East
• Wants to cut Pentagon Budget
• Wants to audit the Pentagon
• Opposes modernizing nuclear arsenal
• Supports a round of base closings and reduced presence of the U.S. around
the world

34. House Permanent Select
Committee on Intelligence
• Current: Devin Nunes (R CA 22)
• Outspoken defender of President Trump in Russia
Investigation.
• High profile critic of Department of Justice and Russia
Probe.
• New Chair: Adam Schiff (D CA 28)
• Outspoken critic of President Trump.
• Likely restart probe into Trump campaign and Russian
interference in the 2016 elections.

35. House Foreign Affairs
Committee
• Current: Ed Royce (R CA 39, did not seek reelection)
• Criticized for not demanding that the White House
defend its National Security Strategy
• Wife was nominated as Asst. Secretary for Educational
and Cultural Affairs
• New Chair: Eliot Engel (D NY 16)
• Prominent critic of Trump on U.S. Foreign Policy
• Will schedule hearings on whether President Trump’s
international properties represent a conflict with U.S.
foreign policy
• Focus on Russia and Saudi Arabia

36. Senate Foreign Relations
Committee
• Current: Bob Corker (R-retiring)
• New James E. Risch (Idaho) but possibly Rubio
• Risch is thought to be more compliant with Trump than Corker. He supported
escalation in North Korea and Trump’s withdrawal from Paris Accord. Risch may
want Energy and Natural Resources, because he’s from Idaho.
• Next in line, Marco Rubio (FL). He is a major supporter of Japan.
• If Democrats had won: Bob Menendez (New Jersey)
• Menendez was indicted on Federal corruption charges but jury couldn’t reach a
decision. Had been removed from SFR during trial
• Menendez has been very critical of Trump, accusing him of damaging the State
Department.
• Menendez is considered a “hawk”. He was among the most ardent and vocal
opponents of Obama’s policy toward Iran.

37. Effect on Trade Policy
USMCA
Negotiated under "fast track
rules"
Will need approval from both
houses of Congress
China Trade War
Section 301 Tariffs
No formal role for Congress
Trade Agreement with Japan
Administration following 'fast
track" rules
October 16th letter to Congress
“Intent to begin negotiations” no
later than January 16, 2019.
October 26th letter to U.S.
International Trade Commission

38. House Ways and Means
Committee
• Current: Kevin Brady (R TX 8)
• Has expressed concerns about trade war.
• Would have supported USMCA
• New Chair: Richard Neal (D MA 1)
• Will likely try to make Trump hand over tax records.
• Neal voted against NAFTA back in 1993, and would cause trade
difficulties for Trump.
• Referring to enforcement provisions, said “Bar for supporting the new
NAFTA will be high”
• Voted against giving President Obama Trade Promotion Authority for
TPP negotiations (June 2015)

39. Ways and Means
Subcommittee on Trade
• Current Chair: Dave Reichert (R WA 8) (retired)
• Strong supporter of TPP arguing “You can’t
roll back the clock on a global economy”
• New Chair: Bill Pascrell, Jr. (D-NJ 9)

40. Senate Finance Committee
• Current: Orin Hatch (R-retiring)
• New: Chuck Grassley (R-IA) or Mike Crapo (R-ID)
• -Grassley is a farmer who supports free trade, but may
want to stay on Judiciary Committee.
• -Crapo voted against NAFTA back in 1993, but has
moderated on trade.
• If Democrats had won: Ron Wyden (D-OR)
• -Wyden was prominent supporter of free trade
agreements

41. U.S. Midterm Elections:
What Happened, Why it happened, and What it means
Paul Sracic
Chair, Department of Politics and International Relations
Youngstown State University
Visiting Fulbright Lecturer
Waseda University