Public Lecture Presentation Slide (9.27.2012)

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Daniel P. Aldrich: Building Resilience Book Launch

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Public Lecture Presentation Slide (9.27.2012)

  1. 1. Disaster Deaths Cost of Urban / rural Level of Analysis Damage1923 Tokyo 105,000 $1 billion Highly populated 39 neighborhoodsEarthquake urban area in Tokyo from 1922 to 19331995 Kobe 6,800 $100 billion Highly populated 9 wards in KobeEarthquake urban area from 1991 to 20062004 Indian 130,000 (in India $4.5 billion Primarily rural, 41 villages, 1,600Ocean Tsunami alone) coastal fishing respondents in villages state of Tamil Nadu2005 Hurricane 1,800 $150 billion Mixed urban area 114 zip codes inKatrina New Orleans
  2. 2. Social infrastructure - not wealth, governance, pop. density, etc. - is most critical in recoveryNew theoretical and empirical approach to studying disasterSuggests new policy approaches for decision makers and NGOs
  3. 3. .15Population Growth Rate (Percentage) Chi-squared value: .001 0 .05 -.05 .1 Low levels of social capital High levels of social capital
  4. 4. Predicted Population Growth Rate -.02 0 .02 .04 .06 60 50Voter Turn Out (Percentage) 80 70
  5. 5. Data from Katsuji Nagata A Before Fukushima B before2001: 231Population 191 180Average age 51.1 50.6# Households 73 64Household age 62.4 59.2Average Household 442 man 402.8 manIncomeNumber of Years in 32.3 43.4the Community% born in the 9.2 71.9community% Renting 34.7 15.9% Working 64.6 69.8
  6. 6. Chuo-ku Higashinada-ku Hyogo-ku 120000 220000 130000 115000 200000 120000 110000 180000 110000 105000 160000 100000 100000 Kita-ku Nada-ku Nagata-kuPopulation 240000 130000 140000 230000 120000 120000 220000 110000 210000 100000 100000 200000 90000 80000 Nishi-ku Suma-ku Tarumi-ku 250000 190000 240000 185000 235000 200000 180000 230000 175000 225000 150000 170000 220000 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 Year
  7. 7. .03Predicted Population Growth Rate .01 .02 0 0 .0001 .0002 .0003 Lagged Number of NPOs Created per Capita

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