Tim Stonor Predictive analytics using Space Syntax technology

1. Predictive analytics For urban planning, building design & spatial economics Future Cities Workshop Singapore 11th March 2014 Tim Stonor Architect & Urban Planner

2. Tim Stonor Predictive analytics For urban planning, building design & spatial economics UK Singapore Future Cities Workshop Space Syntax © 2014 1. Resource availability Scarce & diminishing 3. Future visioning Fanciful & un-evidenced 6. Consultation Problematic & uncollaborative 7. Decision-taking Hesitant 5. Impact forecasting Inaccurate 4. Financial backing Short-term & unaccountable Urban planning in the 21st Century Some challenges 2. Data integration Overloaded & disconnected

4. Tim Stonor Predictive analytics For urban planning, building design & spatial economics UK Singapore Future Cities Workshop Space Syntax © 2014 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 y = .784x + 2.147, R-squared: .589 Spatial accessibility Pedestrianmovement Spatial accessibility -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 y = 1.235x + 1.048, R-squared: .702 Vehiclemovement Research shows that 60-80% of movement flows are due to the structure of the network, measured by spatial accessibility. 研究表明60-80%的交通受到网络结构影响，可采用空间可达性来度量。 More accessible places get more movement. 更可达的场所吸引更多交通流量。 Key discovery #1 Layout influences human behaviour 关键发现＃1 布局影响人类行为

5. Tim Stonor Predictive analytics For urban planning, building design & spatial economics UK Singapore Future Cities Workshop Space Syntax © 2014 Suzhou 苏州 2.2 2.4 2.6 2.8 3 3.2 3.4 3.6 3.8 4 6.5 7 7.5 8 8.5 9 9.5 10 Y = .013 + .394 * X; R^2 = .722 Spatial Accessibility VehicleMovement 72% correlation 72％的相关性

6. Tim Stonor Predictive analytics For urban planning, building design & spatial economics UK Singapore Future Cities Workshop Space Syntax © 2014 Courtesy of The TLRN Central London Pedestrian Study by Atkins Key discovery #2 Spatial layout distributes land use 关键发现＃2 的空间布局分配土地使用

7. Tim Stonor Predictive analytics For urban planning, building design & spatial economics UK Singapore Future Cities Workshop Space Syntax © 2014 Area 5 Area 6 Area 3 Area 2 Perth, Australia 澳大利亚珀斯 Property crime analysis 财产犯罪分析 Key discovery #3 Spatial layout influences crime & safety 关键发现#3 空间布局影响犯罪与安全

9. Tim Stonor Predictive analytics For urban planning, building design & spatial economics UK Singapore Future Cities Workshop Space Syntax © 2014 £ Int Centre vitality 中心活力 % Street quality 街道品质 Property value 房地产价值 Residential security 住宅区安全 Personal safety 个人安全 Urban layout 城市布局 Key discovery #4 Spatial layout determines land value 关键发现#4 空间布局决定土地价值

10. Tim Stonor Predictive analytics For urban planning, building design & spatial economics UK Singapore Future Cities Workshop Space Syntax © 2014 Connected layout 建议的布局Dislocated layout 破碎的布局IntegrationR400 High accessibility score 高通达性Low accessibility score 低通达性 Dislocated layout 破碎的布局 Connected layout 建议的布局 Difference 差别 IRR 内部收益率 11% 14% + 27% NPV 净现值 £47 Million £ 145 Million + £98 Million

11. Tim Stonor Predictive analytics For urban planning, building design & spatial economics UK Singapore Future Cities Workshop Space Syntax © 2014 Disconnected grids increase travel emissions 间断的路网增加旅行的排放量 Key discovery #5 Spatial layout affects carbon footprint 关键发现＃5 空间布局影响碳痕迹

12. Tim Stonor Predictive analytics For urban planning, building design & spatial economics UK Singapore Future Cities Workshop Space Syntax © 2014 The continuously connected city The largest object of human creation A natural asset with enormous intrinsic value Transaction machine

13. Tim Stonor Predictive analytics For urban planning, building design & spatial economics UK Singapore Future Cities Workshop Space Syntax © 2014 A process of scientific co-creation 共同创新互利的过程 UCL Space Syntax Fundamental research Teaching Technology development Space Syntax Limited Consulting Studio Academy Laboratory SoftwareWorks People Ideas Questions

14. Tim Stonor Predictive analytics For urban planning, building design & spatial economics UK Singapore Future Cities Workshop Space Syntax © 2014 Spatial masterplanning Rapid design development & testing

20. Tim Stonor Predictive analytics For urban planning, building design & spatial economics UK Singapore Future Cities Workshop Space Syntax © 2014 Trafalgar Square, London Spatial accessibility model Spatial Accessibility High Low

21. Tim Stonor Predictive analytics For urban planning, building design & spatial economics UK Singapore Future Cities Workshop Space Syntax © 2014 Before After Trafalgar Square, London Spatial accessibility analysis Spatial Accessibility High Low

25. Tim Stonor Predictive analytics For urban planning, building design & spatial economics UK Singapore Future Cities Workshop Space Syntax © 2014 Observe Explain Forecast Deliver Trafalgar Square, London Spatial design process

32. Tim Stonor Predictive analytics For urban planning, building design & spatial economics UK Singapore Future Cities Workshop Space Syntax © 2014 Cycling Science-based creation of cycling policy and design proposals Weekday Weekend Existing cycle infrastructure around Euston station Observed cyclist flows around Euston station (weekday and weekend) Spatial accessibility model, Euston station

33. Tim Stonor Predictive analytics For urban planning, building design & spatial economics UK Singapore Future Cities Workshop Space Syntax © 2014 Crowncopyright.OSLicenceNo0100192252Urban expansion Spatial accessibility in 2013 Spatial accessibility High Low Railway station 2km2km2km2km2km2km2km2km2km 2km2km2km2km2km2km2km2km2km 111111111 111111111000000000 000000000

34. Tim Stonor Predictive analytics For urban planning, building design & spatial economics UK Singapore Future Cities Workshop Space Syntax © 2014 Crowncopyright.OSLicenceNo0100192252Urban expansion Spatial accessibility in 2038 Spatial accessibility High Low Railway station 2km2km2km2km2km2km2km2km2km 2km2km2km2km2km2km2km2km2km 111111111 111111111000000000 000000000

35. Darwin, Australia CBD Expansion

36. Tim Stonor Predictive analytics For urban planning, building design & spatial economics UK Singapore Future Cities Workshop Space Syntax © 2014 Tim Stonor & Ed Parham Introduction to Space Syntax Harvard University Graduate School of Design Space Syntax © 2011 Jeddah Waterfront 500Ha masterplan

38. Tim Stonor Predictive analytics For urban planning, building design & spatial economics UK Singapore Future Cities Workshop Space Syntax © 2014 Abu Dhabi 阿布扎比 Dubai 迪拜 Sharjah沙迦 Space Syntax © 2013 United Arab Emirates 阿拉伯联合大公国 Strategic planning Using spatial network as the foundation 策略性规划使用空间网络作为基础

39. Tim Stonor Predictive analytics For urban planning, building design & spatial economics UK Singapore Future Cities Workshop Space Syntax © 2014 Informal settlement Evidence-based, adaptable regeneration plans 临时定居点基于论证的，有适应力的再生规划 Jeddah – Saudi Arabia吉达 - 沙特阿拉伯 High intervention 高程度介入 Low intervention低程度介入

40. Tim Stonor Predictive analytics For urban planning, building design & spatial economics UK Singapore Future Cities Workshop Space Syntax © 2014 Existing Changchun 长春 Proposed growth 规划深入 Spatial Accessibility low high medium Approx. 40km Strategic planning Spatial distribution of urbanisation 策略性规划城市化的空间分布

41. Changping 昌平 Shunyi 顺义 Huairou 怀柔 Miyun 密云 Pinggu 平谷 Tongzhou 通州 Daxing 大兴Fangshan 房山 Mentougou 门头沟 Beijing 中国北京 Beijing - China Urban sprawl Integrated urban-rural development 城市扩张城乡综合发展

42. Tim Stonor Predictive analytics For urban planning, building design & spatial economics UK Singapore Future Cities Workshop Space Syntax © 2014 500km Scale of journey 100km 50km UK Spatial Infrastructure Model Describing spatial accessibility from high in red, then orange and yellow to low in green then blue.

43. Tim Stonor Predictive analytics For urban planning, building design & spatial economics UK Singapore Future Cities Workshop Space Syntax © 2014 0. Spatial Layout 空间结构 1. Movement 人们的活动 2. Land Use 土地使用 3. Crime & Safety 4. Land Value 5. Carbon Emissions Integrated Urban Model

44. People 1. Behaviour 2. Wealth 3. Health 4. Safety 5. Cultural identity Resources 1. Materials 2. Energy 3. Finance 4. Utilities supply 5. Waste handling Urban Form 1. Spatial Form 2. Physical Form - capacity - location - condition - value dActions v3 dDecision-taking Environment 1. Sun 2. Wind 3. Rainfall 4. Groundform 5. Biodiversity Data Mapping Data Quantification Visualise Urban Data Collective Integrated platform for performance data How is the place working? dUncertainty dIdeas for change Opportunities & Constraints Creation of Conceptual Options Conceive Urban Strategy Integrated urban policy and practice What are the opportunities for change? dConsultation Forecast Urban Forecast Model Scenario testing & performance forecasting How will performance be affected by change? Simulation & Optimisation of Options Development of Preferred Option dAwareness Explain Urban Performance Model Integrated urban diagnostics: spatial analytics Why does the place work the way it does? Urban Diagnosis Issues, Objectives & Principles Urban Baseline Study Urban Impact Analysis User interface/state Behaviour change Decision groups Data Data inputs 1 2 3 4 5 6 Integrated Urban Model

45. Tim Stonor Predictive analytics For urban planning, building design & spatial economics UK Singapore Future Cities Workshop Space Syntax © 2014 2. Data integration Spatial Accessibility Framework 3. Future visioning Dynamic Urban Modelling 6. Consultation Engaging people around “place” 7. Decision-taking Bold but risk reduced 5. Impact forecasting Focus on human transaction 4. Financial backing Urban Value analysis Urban planning in the 21st Century Addressing challenges 1. Resource availability Integrated Places Strategy

46. Tim Stonor Predictive analytics For urban planning, building design & spatial economics UK Singapore Future Cities Workshop Space Syntax © 2014 Tim Stonor Architect & Urban Planner t.stonor@spacesyntax.com @Tim_Stonor www.spacesyntax.com