Mobile Handset Population inFinland 2005-2011MoMIE project reportMay 15th, 2012                       Network Economics   ...
MoMIE project: Comprehensive viewon mobile service usage                           MoMIE RESEARCH:     Handset population ...
Data collection: handset population• Mobile operators’ accounting systems   – Data from end of Q3, annually 2005–2011   – ...
Growth in data terminals continues                    10Millions                                                          ...
Fragmentation of handset population                                               Cumulative share of top handsets        ...
Top handset models in use in FinlandAll mobile handsets:                                                       Smartphones...
Nokia dominates handset population      Mobile handsets by manufacturer 2005-2011 1%       1%      1%     2%     2%     3%...
Mobile handsets by operating system 10%    11%    10%    12%    11%    13%                                              19...
Share of smartphones increasing•   Smartphone definition:                                                              40%...
Nokia Series 40 and Symbian diffusion:Substitution between OS generations                               40%               ...
Diffusion of radio interfaces stable             Penetration of handset features in Finland 2005-2011 (1)100%             ...
Display technologies and inputmethods              Penetration of handset features in Finland 2005-2011 (2)100%           ...
Forecasting feature diffusion: LogicCombination of handset sales and installed base data• Mobile handset sales  data from ...
Forecasting feature diffusion: First results• Forecasts of feature  shares in sales based  on expert opinion• Features dif...
Conclusions• Typical handset manufactured by Nokia (81%)   – Other manufacturers begun to gain market share• Smartphones (...
Further information• Contact:   – Antti Riikonen, researcher   – Timo Smura, project manager   – firstname.lastname (at) a...
Upcoming SlideShare
Loading in …5
×

Mobile Handset Population in Finland 2005-2011

933 views

Published on

Published in: Business, Technology
0 Comments
0 Likes
Statistics
Notes
  • Be the first to comment

  • Be the first to like this

No Downloads
Views
Total views
933
On SlideShare
0
From Embeds
0
Number of Embeds
381
Actions
Shares
0
Downloads
3
Comments
0
Likes
0
Embeds 0
No embeds

No notes for slide

Mobile Handset Population in Finland 2005-2011

  1. 1. Mobile Handset Population inFinland 2005-2011MoMIE project reportMay 15th, 2012 Network Economics Antti Riikonen Research Group Timo Smura
  2. 2. MoMIE project: Comprehensive viewon mobile service usage MoMIE RESEARCH: Handset population data collection • Surveys on handset panel • Handset monitoring • Mobile operator accounting systems • IP traffic measurements • Web analytics Source: Modified from Kivi, 2009 Slide 2
  3. 3. Data collection: handset population• Mobile operators’ accounting systems – Data from end of Q3, annually 2005–2011 – Feature information: GfK and public sources• Represents 80-99% of devices in use in Finnish mobile networks (~98% in 2011) – Data from DNA, Elisa, and TeliaSonera – Includes devices observed at operators’ network – Some error due to • No full data on Apple iPhone from 2005-2010 >> available in 2011 • Mobile subscriber churn during observation period • Differences in operator-specific data sets • Unidentified devices and missing feature-data of handset models Slide 3
  4. 4. Growth in data terminals continues 10Millions 2% 2% 8 2% 19 % * Other device types (e.g. desktop 13 % phones) excluded from the rest 1% 8% Other/Unknown * of the analysis. UnknownNumber of devices 2% 5% devices included in estimation 6 8% of error margins. 2% 2% Data terminal ** 1% 1% Handset ** USB modems, data cards, 4 tablets, embedded data 91 % 85 % 79 % modules 94 % 96 % 97 % 91 % 2 0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011• Size of the active device population depends on definition – Relative shares of handsets and data terminals based on MoMIE measurements – Here, active device population assumed to equal the total number of subscriptions in Finland, as reported by the operators in public• USB modems major data terminal category – large scale introduction during fall 2007 Slide 4
  5. 5. Fragmentation of handset population Cumulative share of top handsets 100 % • Early signs of slowdown in fragmentation visible 80 % – Amount of available modelsCumulative share of all handsets has remained rather stable since 2008 2005 60 % 2006 2007 • Cumulative share of 40 % 2008 – Top 1 model 2009 • 14% (2005) 2010 • 3% (2011) 20 % 2011 – Top 10 models • 50% (2005) 0% • 24% (2011) 1 10 100 Top handset models (log) Slide 5
  6. 6. Top handset models in use in FinlandAll mobile handsets: Smartphones: Share of all Change Packet Share of all Change Rank Model name Rank Model name handsets from 2010 data* handsets from 2010 1 Nokia 2760 2,8% Yes (2G) 1 (2) Nokia 5230 2,7% 2 Nokia 5230 2,7% Yes (3G) 2 (9) Nokia C5-00 2,1% 3 Nokia 2730 Classic 2,7% Yes (3G) 3 (11) Apple iPhone 4 2,1% - 4 Nokia 3720 Classic 2,6% Yes (2G) 4 (15) Nokia E7-00 1,3% 5 Nokia 7230 2,6% Yes (3G) 5 (19) Nokia E52 1,2% 6 Nokia 3120 Classic 2,4% Yes (3G) 6 (21) Nokia C7-00 1,2% 7 Nokia 3710 Fold 2,3% Yes (3G) 7 (22) Nokia N8-00 1,2% 8 Nokia 1100 2,2% No 8 (25) Apple iPhone 3GS 1,0% - 9 Nokia C5-00 2,1% Yes (2G) 9 (26) Nokia C6-00 0,9% 10 Nokia 2330 Classic 2,1% Yes (2G) 10 (27) Nokia E75 0,9% 11 Apple iPhone 4 2,1% - ** Yes (3G) 12 Nokia C2-01 2,0% Yes (3G) 13 Nokia 2720 Fold 2,0% Yes (2G) 14 Samsung GT-S5230 1,3% Yes (2G) 15 Nokia E7-00 1,3% Yes (3G)* All 2G devices have GPRS/EDGE capability, all 3G devices have GPRS/EDGE/WCDM A capability** No data on Apple iPhone in 2010 Slide 6
  7. 7. Nokia dominates handset population Mobile handsets by manufacturer 2005-2011 1% 1% 1% 2% 2% 3% 4% Others • Others 5% 3% 2% 1% 1% 0% 3% Apple * – HTC 1% 2% 3% 3% 4% 3% 3% 0% BenQ/Siemens – ZTE 1% 2% 2% 4% 4% 5% 6% 8% Sony/Ericsson 10% Samsung • Samsung Nokia – Share growing – > 2/3 of Samsung devices with proprietary Samsung OS 90% 88% 89% 88% 89% 86% 81% • Nokia – Decrease of 5% points – Detailed analysis next 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 * No full data on Apple 2007-2010 No error margins available. Unidentified devices and unidentified manufacturers neglected from the analysis Slide 7
  8. 8. Mobile handsets by operating system 10% 11% 10% 12% 11% 13% 19% Others 4% 0% 1% Symbian^3 / Anna/Belle 2% 0% 9% 8% 14% 0% 6% Others S60 5. ed. Symbian Others S60 3.ed • Others 2011: 3% 7% 17% OthersSymbian^3 / Anna/Belle 4% Symbian 3% 5% 18% 7% Symbian^3 / Anna/Belle Symbian OS 5. ed. S60 Symbian^3 / Anna/Belle – Mobile phones 10% 2% 1% 3% Symbian S60 5. ed. 1% OthersSymbian S60 3.ed 32% 0% 10% 0% 2% Symbian S60 5. S80 (+90,UIQ) ed. 13% Symbian OS 3.ed Symbian S60 40, 6. ed. Symbian^3 / Series Symbian S60Anna/Belle OthersNokia 3.ed – Smartphones 9% 8% Symbian OS (+90,UIQ) Symbian S80 Symbian S60Anna/Belle5. ed. 1% Nokia 5. ed. Symbian^3 / Series 40, OS 34% 21% 7% Others S80 (+90,UIQ) Symbian 14% S60 3.ed Nokia (+90,UIQ) 5. ed. 6. Symbian S80Series 40, 3. ed. Symbian^3 / Anna/Belle Nokia Series 40, 6. ed. 31% 23% 14% Nokia Series ed. 5. ed. Symbian OS 3.ed 40, Nokia Series 40, 6. 40 S60 Symbian S60 40,ed. ed. 5. Nokia Series 40, 5. Nokia Series ed. 3. ed. S80 (+90,UIQ) Nokia Series OS 5. Symbian OS 40, • Total shares 2011: Symbian S60 40, 3.ed 12% Nokia Nokia Series ed. 3. ed. Symbian S80Series 40 Nokia 40, 6. Series (+90,UIQ) 3. – Symbian 26% 23% Symbian OS 40 Nokia Series 20% Nokia OS 5. ed. 40, Nokia Series 40 6. 15% 8% Symbian S80 (+90,UIQ) Nokia OS 3. ed. Nokia OS 40, 5. Series Nokia Series 40, 6. ed. – Series 40 45% 52% 40 9% Nokia Series 40, 3. ed. 5% Nokia Series 40, 5. ed. 39% Nokia OS 40 6% Series 30% Nokia Series 40, 3. ed. 23% Nokia OS 18% Nokia Series 40 13% 10% Nokia OS 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 No error margins available. Unidentified devices and unidentified operating systems neglected from the analysis Slide 8
  9. 9. Share of smartphones increasing• Smartphone definition: 40% Shares of smarpthone operating systems – Possibility to install native applications Others – e.g. Symbian, iOS, Android, 3% Windows Phone, Maemo, iOS 30% MeeGo 5% Android Share out of all handsets 1%• Share of smartphones 4% Symbian^3, Anna, Belle from 6% (’05) to 33% (’11) 20% Symbian 1.-5. ed. – Smartphone share in sales ~56% in September 2011 26% 22% 22% 10% 20% 19% 13% Note: - No data on iOS from 2007-2010 6% - Nokia Windows Phone not yet 0% available in Finland during 2011 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 No error margins available. Unidentified devices and unidentified operating systems neglected from the analysis Slide 9
  10. 10. Nokia Series 40 and Symbian diffusion:Substitution between OS generations 40% Nokia Series 40 diffusion Share of all handsets 35% 30% 25% Series 40, 1.-2. ed. 20% Series 40, 3. ed. 15% Series 40, 5. ed. 10% Series 40, 6. ed. 5% 0% 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 20% Symbian diffusion Share of all handsets 15% S80 (+90,UIQ) S60 1.-2. ed. 10% S60 3.ed S60 5. ed. 5% ^3 / Anna / Belle 0% 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Slide 10
  11. 11. Diffusion of radio interfaces stable Penetration of handset features in Finland 2005-2011 (1)100% • Many features close to saturation80% – Low-end population limits penetration60% – Saturation level for FM radio?40% • Some features20% spreading fast – Inclusion to mid- range? 0% 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 N = 4-6.5 Millions Upper and lower error margins presented with Slide 11
  12. 12. Display technologies and inputmethods Penetration of handset features in Finland 2005-2011 (2)100% • Diffusion of TFT slowed down 80% – Competition between high-end TFT and 60% AMOLED displays 40% • Touch screen diffusing fast – One of the fastest 20% growing features ever – Also in comparison to 0% QWERTY B/W CSTN TFT AMOLED / Other 3x4 KEY QWERTY TOUCH (MSTN) SUPER DISP. AMOLED TYPE 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 3x4 KEY = numeric keypad QWERTY = QWERTY keyboardN = 4-6.5 Millions TOUCH = Touch screen Slide 12
  13. 13. Forecasting feature diffusion: LogicCombination of handset sales and installed base data• Mobile handset sales data from GfK – Used to calculate the share of features in sales• Unit replacement parameters calculated using sales and installed base data• Forecast made for share of features in future sales• Model calculates the share of features in base Slide 13
  14. 14. Forecasting feature diffusion: First results• Forecasts of feature shares in sales based on expert opinion• Features diffuse in bundles – Certain features found together in feature phones, other features in smartphones• Diffusion of features relatively slow – WCDMA will reach 80% penetration in three years, WLAN in four Slide 14
  15. 15. Conclusions• Typical handset manufactured by Nokia (81%) – Other manufacturers begun to gain market share• Smartphones (33%) and advanced features spread fast – With increasing share of handsets possible to consume advanced services & content – Touch screen diffusing fast, substituting numeric keypad• Forecasts predict stable growth of key features Slide 15
  16. 16. Further information• Contact: – Antti Riikonen, researcher – Timo Smura, project manager – firstname.lastname (at) aalto.fi• MoMIE project: – Modeling of Mobile Internet Ecosystem – http://momie.comnet.aalto.fi/ Slide 16

×