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Global trends ten key trends to watch for 2015

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It’s been a turbulent year, with geopolitical crises dominating world headlines. Rising nationalism and separatism has created power vacuums in the developed world; power plays in Ukraine, the Middle East and the South China Sea have threatened broader conflicts while the possibility of a new era of religious crusades is daunting. The issue for the year ahead is whether global leaders will step up to collaborate on real, lasting solutions.

Other major factors that will shape the world in 2015 are the sluggish global economy – hardly news at this stage, but still relevant – crashing oil prices, and climate change’s return to the agenda. Technology has its part to play, of course, and there are plenty of exciting developments on the horizon, although in the past twelve months it has been security breaches and cyber-criminals’ apparent ability to hack every aspect of the connected world.

Against this backdrop we see 10 key trends to watch in the next year.

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Global trends ten key trends to watch for 2015

  1. 1. © Strategy Dynamics Global Limited. All rights reserved. Not to be used without permission. www.globaltrends.com 1 10 Key Trends to Watch for 2015 www.globaltrends.com
  2. 2. © Strategy Dynamics Global Limited. All rights reserved. Not to be used without permission. www.globaltrends.com 2 10 Trends to Watch for 2015 1. A picture paints a thousand words: Visual (and social) everything 2. Exposed in a connected world: The fight back 3. ThinkZero: Towards a circular economy 4. Putting your money where your mouth is: The rise of impact capitalism 5. Upstarts: Driving the entrepreneurial economy 6. Who needs healthcare providers anyway? 7. Let the energy games begin… 8. Power plays and power vacuums: A new age of crusades? 9. Mayors unite: The rise of the city state 10. Brain waves: Harnessing intelligence
  3. 3. © Strategy Dynamics Global Limited. All rights reserved. Not to be used without permission. www.globaltrends.com 3 1. A picture paint a thousand words: Visual (and social) everything
  4. 4. © Strategy Dynamics Global Limited. All rights reserved. Not to be used without permission. www.globaltrends.com 4 The race is on to connect the billions of people currently living without internet access Facebook via solar-powered drones Google via high-altitude balloons Quarkson via the UAV SkyOrbiter Elon Musk via micro-satellites
  5. 5. © Strategy Dynamics Global Limited. All rights reserved. Not to be used without permission. www.globaltrends.com 5 Techno-fatigue is setting in. Being reachable always and everywhere is no longer desirable Agreed in 2011 agreed to stop from sending emails after working hours. Has allowed about 100,000 workers to delete the emails they receive while on vacation. In France a federation of employers and unions have signed an agreement to avoid emails after-hours. It is expected that the German government in 2016 will pass similar legislation to curb off-hour emails and calls.
  6. 6. © Strategy Dynamics Global Limited. All rights reserved. Not to be used without permission. www.globaltrends.com 6 Visuals are trumping words – Our definition of “reality’ could be reinvented through a new world of virtual and holographic technology Ask: How can my company tap into this extraordinary world of new technologies?
  7. 7. © Strategy Dynamics Global Limited. All rights reserved. Not to be used without permission. www.globaltrends.com 7 2. Exposed in a connected world: The fight back
  8. 8. © Strategy Dynamics Global Limited. All rights reserved. Not to be used without permission. www.globaltrends.com 8 No data is safe: Hidden beneath the standard search engines is the dark, deep web trading everything from arms to drugs to stolen financial and medical information The Public Web The Dark Web
  9. 9. © Strategy Dynamics Global Limited. All rights reserved. Not to be used without permission. www.globaltrends.com 9 Cyber security is no longer a choice but an unavoidable part of doing business Corporate cyber security investment and deal volume trend
  10. 10. © Strategy Dynamics Global Limited. All rights reserved. Not to be used without permission. www.globaltrends.com 10 The internet is neither neutral nor private – to keep our data safe one option is to rethink and build a decentralized the internet… THINK Project Meshnet and MaidSafe …but balkanization of the internet means the loss of many benefits of the open internet.
  11. 11. © Strategy Dynamics Global Limited. All rights reserved. Not to be used without permission. www.globaltrends.com 11 3. ThinkZero: Towards a circular economy
  12. 12. © Strategy Dynamics Global Limited. All rights reserved. Not to be used without permission. www.globaltrends.com 12 Managing waste is not enough: We must rethink and redesign future products and business systems WELCOME TO THE CIRCULAR ECONOMY DESIGN & MANUFACTURE RETAIL CONSUMER RECYCLE REPAIR & REUSE
  13. 13. © Strategy Dynamics Global Limited. All rights reserved. Not to be used without permission. www.globaltrends.com 13 New business models are already driving the circular economy (Source: FastCompany ) Companies Business models Vodafone’s Red- Hot plan Product as services – leasing access to and not selling ownership of a service Tata Motor Assured Next Life Sales – efficiently recovering and re-conditioning products after use and then putting the same products into the market BMW Product transformation – not all products can be reconditioned in their entirety but most products have components that can be reused Starbucks Recycling 2.0 ThreadUP Collaborative Consumption
  14. 14. © Strategy Dynamics Global Limited. All rights reserved. Not to be used without permission. www.globaltrends.com 14 While it is encouraging that many companies are changing, it is also critical to work on changing the mindset and behaviour of consumers worldwide WASTE AND OVERCONSUMPTION THINK – STAY HEALTHY – EAT – REUSE – SAVE
  15. 15. © Strategy Dynamics Global Limited. All rights reserved. Not to be used without permission. www.globaltrends.com 15 4. Putting your money where your mouth is: The rise of impact capitalism
  16. 16. © Strategy Dynamics Global Limited. All rights reserved. Not to be used without permission. www.globaltrends.com 16 A new era of investing is on the rise but there is still a long way to go In 2014, US$46 billion of assets were classified as impact investment under management, up 20% from 2013 US$210 trillion is invested in global financial markets Source: Spotlight on the Market - The Impact Investor Survey
  17. 17. © Strategy Dynamics Global Limited. All rights reserved. Not to be used without permission. www.globaltrends.com 17 The P2P lending industry is increasingly popular with the risk of changing from “peer-to-peer lending” to “marketplace lending” By 2016 the global P2P market will top £40 billion. The UK will account for £5 billion, the US £20 billion, and the remainder from the rest of the world.
  18. 18. © Strategy Dynamics Global Limited. All rights reserved. Not to be used without permission. www.globaltrends.com 18 5. Upstarts: Driving the entrepreneurial economy
  19. 19. © Strategy Dynamics Global Limited. All rights reserved. Not to be used without permission. www.globaltrends.com 19 “Entrepreneur” is no longer an occupation but a mindset
  20. 20. © Strategy Dynamics Global Limited. All rights reserved. Not to be used without permission. www.globaltrends.com 20 New generations of social entrepreneurs are breaking down the walls between the non-profit and the for-profit world Profit
  21. 21. © Strategy Dynamics Global Limited. All rights reserved. Not to be used without permission. www.globaltrends.com 21 While entrepreneurs and traditional corporations work hand-in-hand to create new businesses Experienced entrepreneurs get access to knowledge and relationships through Coca-Cola
  22. 22. © Strategy Dynamics Global Limited. All rights reserved. Not to be used without permission. www.globaltrends.com 22 6. Who needs healthcare providers anyway?
  23. 23. © Strategy Dynamics Global Limited. All rights reserved. Not to be used without permission. www.globaltrends.com 23 In healthcare, the future is already here: Robotic technology is permeating all areas from surgery to rehabilitation, to socially assistive robots and cleaning GiGi, the germ killing robot The Vasteras Giraff Photo credit: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hybrid_Assistive_Limb#mediaviewer/File:Hybrid_Assistive_Limb.jpg Hybrid Assistive limb Photo credit: http://stanislauscollege.blogspot.com/2014/10/gigi-germ- killing-robot.html
  24. 24. © Strategy Dynamics Global Limited. All rights reserved. Not to be used without permission. www.globaltrends.com 24 Before you know it, technology inside you will be able to target specific diseases and soon bioprinting will be printing human organs THINK Google’s cancer and heart-detecting nanoparticle pill Steerable Surge Robot Pills Plaque Busters
  25. 25. © Strategy Dynamics Global Limited. All rights reserved. Not to be used without permission. www.globaltrends.com 25 7. Let the energy games begin…
  26. 26. © Strategy Dynamics Global Limited. All rights reserved. Not to be used without permission. www.globaltrends.com 26 Falling oil prices and a new oil order could challenge geopolitical stability Once dominant oil producers Russia, Saudi Arabia and Iran could be facing social unrest and, at the extreme, revolutionary challenges caused by economic pressures
  27. 27. © Strategy Dynamics Global Limited. All rights reserved. Not to be used without permission. www.globaltrends.com 27 At the same time, the world energy systems must be radically restructured to address the increasing threat of global warming Renewable energy needs to be made politically and economically irresistible as well as well-planned and coordinated nationally and regionally STOP FOSSIL FUELS
  28. 28. © Strategy Dynamics Global Limited. All rights reserved. Not to be used without permission. www.globaltrends.com 28 8. Power plays and power vacuums: A new age of crusades?
  29. 29. © Strategy Dynamics Global Limited. All rights reserved. Not to be used without permission. www.globaltrends.com 29 Partisan politics in the U.S. and rising nationalism in Europe are creating leadership and power vacuums, even as power plays by Russia in Ukraine and by China in East Asia ramp up the potential for wider conflict An increasingly polarized geopolitical landscape presents serious risks to global growth and stability…
  30. 30. © Strategy Dynamics Global Limited. All rights reserved. Not to be used without permission. www.globaltrends.com 30 Terror threats and religious extremism is a growing concern in the Muslim as well as non-Muslim world Very/Somewhat concerned about Islamic extremism in our country 81% 92% Lebanon 71% 80% Tunesia 69% 75% Egypt 54% 62% Jordan 37% 50% Turkey 84% Israel 72% Nigeria 69% Bangladesh 65% Palestine ter. 46% Senegal, 39% Indonesia 2013 2014 Source: Pew Research
  31. 31. © Strategy Dynamics Global Limited. All rights reserved. Not to be used without permission. www.globaltrends.com 31 The BRICS rising economic strength is not yet reflected in global institutions, so they are taking matters into own hands New Development Bank (NDB) headquartered in Shanghai was founded by the five BRICS countries in July, 2014 as an alternative to IMF and The World Bank
  32. 32. © Strategy Dynamics Global Limited. All rights reserved. Not to be used without permission. www.globaltrends.com 32 9. Mayors unite: The rise of the city state
  33. 33. © Strategy Dynamics Global Limited. All rights reserved. Not to be used without permission. www.globaltrends.com 33 Urbanization is on the rise and cities will increasingly be the future generators of wealth To fulfill the needs of the city dwellers new urban approaches are necessary THINK PUBLIC-PRIVATE-PEOPLE PARTNERSHIPS
  34. 34. © Strategy Dynamics Global Limited. All rights reserved. Not to be used without permission. www.globaltrends.com 34 The world’s mayors are stepping up, taking responsibility for global challenges – and potentially shifting the balance of power NATIONAL GOVERNMENTS A GLOBAL PARLIAMENT OF MAYORS
  35. 35. © Strategy Dynamics Global Limited. All rights reserved. Not to be used without permission. www.globaltrends.com 35 10. Brain waves: Harnessing intelligence
  36. 36. © Strategy Dynamics Global Limited. All rights reserved. Not to be used without permission. www.globaltrends.com 36 Thought control has already been tried on many levels… • A HMS research team controlled a rat's tail. • At UW one researcher sent a brain signal via the internet to control the hand motions of a fellow researcher. • RAC’s “attention- powered car” is controlled by brainwaves. • Ford, BMW, Fiat, Daimler, Volvo and Volkswagen are testing systems that take control of the e.g. steering wheel when risks are detected. (Source: PSFK, BBC).
  37. 37. © Strategy Dynamics Global Limited. All rights reserved. Not to be used without permission. www.globaltrends.com 37 As technology evolves the next phase of the robotic revolution promises dramatic advances Photo credit: http://quib.ly/qu/could-autistic-kids-learn-from-a-robot-teacher Photo credit: https://www.yahoo.com/travel/welcome-aboard-you- must-go-to-the-bar-with-the-102936190122.html Photo credit: http://www.strangehorizons.com/2008/20081110/crispin-a.shtml Photo credit: http://www.spacedaily.com/reports/Welfare_robots_to_ease_burden_in_greying_Japan_999.html The Welfare Robot The Bartender Robot The Teacher Robot The Robot Soldier
  38. 38. © Strategy Dynamics Global Limited. All rights reserved. Not to be used without permission. www.globaltrends.com 38 We are hacking our bodies and minds Technological advances have the potential to enhance human capacity and intelligence to deal with radical change and complexity through new human-machine interfaces – dramatically impacting how we think, live and work in the future. Imagine a world where computers do all the logical thinking for us leaving us free to do creative and conceptual thinking? Can we really go so far? Do we want to?
  39. 39. © Strategy Dynamics Global Limited. All rights reserved. Not to be used without permission. www.globaltrends.com 39 How will these trends impact you, your organization and your industry in 2015 and beyond? Are you ready? Click here to read the full briefing: 10 Trends to Watch in 2015 (it’s free!) In January: Look out for trends in action on The Best of 2015 Trends
  40. 40. © Strategy Dynamics Global Limited. All rights reserved. Not to be used without permission. www.globaltrends.com 40 www.globaltrends.com Electronic copies of our briefings and of The Global Trends Fieldbook: From Data to Insights to Action and The Global Trends Report are available on www.globaltrends.com. Printed copies of the GT Fieldbook and GT Report can be purchased on Amazon.com and Amazon’s European sites. Don’t forget to register at www.globaltrends.com now to make sure you don’t miss our next monthly briefing (they are free)!
  41. 41. © Strategy Dynamics Global Limited. All rights reserved. Not to be used without permission. www.globaltrends.com 41 About the Authors Tracey Keys is Director of Strategy Dynamics Global SA. Christel K. Stoklund is Head of Research for Strategy Dynamics Global SA. Contact them at: info@globaltrends.com www.globaltrends.com

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