The Status and Outlook for the
    Photovoltaics Industry




         David E. Carlson
         March 14, 2006
Outline of the Talk


The PV Market

The Major Players

Different Types of Solar Cells

Field Installations

Performance a...
$10
                  $20
                        $30
                              $40
                                  ...
PV Shipments for Different Technologies
The Major Players
Crystalline Si    Amorphous Si      CIGS          CdTe
   Sharp            United Solar    Shell Solar  ...
Operation of a Solar Cell

Photons are absorbed in the
semiconductor resulting in the
creation of electron-hole pairs

The...
Operation of a Solar Cell
Crystalline Silicon Solar Cells

                                             The BP Solar Saturn
                        ...
Sanyo HIT Solar Cell

                                                       Screen-printed Ag
                           ...
SunPower Back Contact Solar Cell




The SunPower cell has all its electrical contacts on the rear surface of the cell
The...
Amorphous Silicon Triple-Junction Cell




                                              United Solar Ovonic



United Sol...
Cadmium Telluride Solar Cells



          The CdS/CdTe
          heterojunction solar cell is
          typically formed ...
Copper-Indium-Gallium-Diselenide Cell




NREL has obtained an efficiency of 19.5% in the lab
Dye-Sensitized Solar Cells




Dye-sensitized solar cells utilize a few monolayers of ruthenium-
based dye molecules on ti...
Spectrolab’s Triple-Junction Solar Cell




In July 2005, Spectrolab reported the highest efficiency solar cell
to date, a...
Conversion Efficiencies vs. Time (NREL)
                 40
                           Multijunction Concentrators
       ...
PV Module Conversion Efficiencies

                                              Modules    Lab

Dye-sensitized solar cell...
Paths to Ultra-High Conversion Efficiencies

Multijunction solar cells

Multiple absorption path solar cells (impact ioniz...
Remote Telecommunication Site
Remote Application: Village Power




   Philippines Village
PV Concentrator System




A concentrator system using Fresnel lenses (Amonix)
Roof-Mounted PV Arrays
United Solar – Coca Cola Bottling Plant (LA)
BP Solar Roof-Mounted PV Array
Building-Integrated PV
Building PV Curtain Wall
Building-Integrated PV




Georgetown University
Building-Integrated PV
BIPV and Plug-Power Hybrids
DOE Targets for PV System Costs
PV Electricity Costs in Europe

                 PV electricity is
                 close to being
                 compet...
PV Module Price Experience Curve




At current growth rates, PV module prices should fall below $1/Wp by 2027
Forecast for PV Electricity Production
Solar Energy – the Long-Term Solution?




Source: German Advisory Council on Global Change
Projections for the Future of PV

Module efficiencies are likely to exceed 20% in the next decade

The levelized cost of P...
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The_Status_and_Outlook_for_the_Photovoltaics_Industry_2007 BP

  1. 1. The Status and Outlook for the Photovoltaics Industry David E. Carlson March 14, 2006
  2. 2. Outline of the Talk The PV Market The Major Players Different Types of Solar Cells Field Installations Performance and Cost Projections for the Future of Photovoltaics
  3. 3. $10 $20 $30 $40 $50 $60 $70 $0 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 Annual MWp 1990 1991 1992 ASP Constant 2005$ 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 Historical Average Selling Price and Volume
  4. 4. PV Shipments for Different Technologies
  5. 5. The Major Players Crystalline Si Amorphous Si CIGS CdTe Sharp United Solar Shell Solar First Solar Kyocera Kaneka Showa Shell Antec Solar BP Solar Fuji Electric Wurth Solar Q-Cells Sharp DayStar Mitsubishi Mitsubisihi SolarWorld Schott Solar Sanyo Schott Solar Isofoton Motech Suntech
  6. 6. Operation of a Solar Cell Photons are absorbed in the semiconductor resulting in the creation of electron-hole pairs The photo-generated electron- hole pairs are physically separated at the p/n junction The photogenerated carriers are collected by the contacts on the front and rear of the cell The photocurrent can be delivered to an external load at an applied voltage to perform useful work
  7. 7. Operation of a Solar Cell
  8. 8. Crystalline Silicon Solar Cells The BP Solar Saturn solar cell utilizes a laser-grooved, buried front contact The aluminum back contact is heated to n+ form a back surface n++ P field, which reduces Buried surface recombination contact Best lab efficiency = 20.1% Back contact
  9. 9. Sanyo HIT Solar Cell Screen-printed Ag collection grids Textured n-type CZ Si (200 μm thick) The HIT cell utilizes amorphous Si intrinsic layers (~ 5 nm) as super-passivation layers. The cell is symmetric except for the a-Si p+ emitter layer (~ 10 nm) on the front and the a-Si n+ contact layer (~ 15 nm) on the rear. The transparent electrodes are sputter-deposited indium-tin-oxide (ITO) Best lab efficiency = 21.6% (open-circuit voltages > 700 mV)
  10. 10. SunPower Back Contact Solar Cell The SunPower cell has all its electrical contacts on the rear surface of the cell The diffusion lengths > twice the cell thickness Best lab efficiency = 21.6%
  11. 11. Amorphous Silicon Triple-Junction Cell United Solar Ovonic United Solar has demonstrated a stable efficiency of 13% in the lab
  12. 12. Cadmium Telluride Solar Cells The CdS/CdTe heterojunction solar cell is typically formed by using a chemical bath technique to deposit the CdS and close space vacuum sublimation to deposit the CdTe Toxicity of Cd is perceived by some to be an issue Best lab efficiency = 16.5%
  13. 13. Copper-Indium-Gallium-Diselenide Cell NREL has obtained an efficiency of 19.5% in the lab
  14. 14. Dye-Sensitized Solar Cells Dye-sensitized solar cells utilize a few monolayers of ruthenium- based dye molecules on titanium oxide particles in an electrolyte Best lab efficiency = 11%
  15. 15. Spectrolab’s Triple-Junction Solar Cell In July 2005, Spectrolab reported the highest efficiency solar cell to date, a 39.0% triple-junction cell operating at 236 suns
  16. 16. Conversion Efficiencies vs. Time (NREL) 40 Multijunction Concentrators Spectrolab NREL Three-junction (2-terminal, monolithic) 36 Two-junction (2-terminal, monolithic) Spectrolab Crystalline Si Cells Single crystal Japan 32 Multicrystalline Energy NREL/ NREL Spectrolab Thin Film Technologies NREL 28 Cu(In,Ga)Se2 CdTe Amorphous Si:H (stabilized) UNSW UNSW 24 UNSW Efficiency (%) Emerging PV Spire UNSW NREL Dye cells UNSW Cu(In,Ga)Se2 Spire Stanford Organic cells UNSW 14x concentration 20 (various technologies) Sharp Georgia Tech NREL Westing- ARCO Georgia Tech NREL NREL NREL Varian house NREL 16 No. Carolina University So. Florida NREL NREL State University Euro-CIS ARCO Boeing Solarex Kodak Boeing 12 Boeing United Solar AMETEK Photon Energy Matsushita University of Kodak Boeing United Solar Lausanne 8 Monosolar Boeing RCA Solarex Groningen Siemens University University of Princeton* 4 of Maine RCA Lausanne NREL RCA RCA Cambridge* RCA RCA UCSB* University RCA Kodak* *Not NREL-confirmed University Linz 0 Berkeley* Linz* 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
  17. 17. PV Module Conversion Efficiencies Modules Lab Dye-sensitized solar cells 3 – 5% 11% Amorphous silicon (multijunction) 6 - 8% 13.2% Cadmium Telluride (CdTe) thin film 8 - 10% 16.5% Copper-Indium-Gallium-Selenium (CIGS) 9 - 11% 19.5% Multicrystalline or polycrystalline silicon 12 - 15% 20.3% Monocrystalline silicon 14 - 16% 21.6% High performance monocrystalline silicon 16 - 18% 24.7% Triple-junction (GaInP/GaAs/Ge) cell (236 suns) - 39.0%
  18. 18. Paths to Ultra-High Conversion Efficiencies Multijunction solar cells Multiple absorption path solar cells (impact ionization, multiple exciton generation ) Multiple energy level solar cells (localized levels or intermediate bands) Multiple spectrum solar cells (up and down conversion of photons) Multiple temperature solar cells (utilization of hot carriers) All these approaches have theoretical efficiency limits > 60%. The theoretical efficiency limit is > 80% for multijunction cells utilizing other high efficiency approaches.
  19. 19. Remote Telecommunication Site
  20. 20. Remote Application: Village Power Philippines Village
  21. 21. PV Concentrator System A concentrator system using Fresnel lenses (Amonix)
  22. 22. Roof-Mounted PV Arrays
  23. 23. United Solar – Coca Cola Bottling Plant (LA)
  24. 24. BP Solar Roof-Mounted PV Array
  25. 25. Building-Integrated PV
  26. 26. Building PV Curtain Wall
  27. 27. Building-Integrated PV Georgetown University
  28. 28. Building-Integrated PV
  29. 29. BIPV and Plug-Power Hybrids
  30. 30. DOE Targets for PV System Costs
  31. 31. PV Electricity Costs in Europe PV electricity is close to being competitive in Spain today PV electricity is also close to grid parity today in Japan In the next few decades PV should become cost competitive in many parts of the world
  32. 32. PV Module Price Experience Curve At current growth rates, PV module prices should fall below $1/Wp by 2027
  33. 33. Forecast for PV Electricity Production
  34. 34. Solar Energy – the Long-Term Solution? Source: German Advisory Council on Global Change
  35. 35. Projections for the Future of PV Module efficiencies are likely to exceed 20% in the next decade The levelized cost of PV electricity may be about 6 ¢/kWh by 2020 Disruptive technologies with theoretical limits of >60% may emerge in the next few decades At current growth rates, the cumulative PV production would be ~36 GWp by 2020 and 4 TWp by 2040 3 TWp of solar electricity will reduce carbon emissions by about 1 Gton per year (7 Gtons of carbon were emitted as CO2 in 2000) Thus, by about 2035 PV could be producing about 10% of the world’s electricity and start to play a major role in reducing CO2 emissions

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