Dr. Steve Meyers - Economic Grain Situation and Outlook

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Economic Grain Situation and Outlook - Dr. Steve Meyers, Paragon Economics, from the 2012 World Pork Expo, June 6-8, Des Moines, Iowa, USA.

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Dr. Steve Meyers - Economic Grain Situation and Outlook

  1. 1. World Pork Expo 2012Grains Situation and OutlookSteve R. Meyer, Ph.D.Paragon Economics, Inc. Paragon Economics, Inc. From information, knowledge
  2. 2. First major cost paradigm shift since „73-‟74 Paragon Economics, Inc. From information, knowledge
  3. 3. Some would blame this on higher oil prices Paragon Economics, Inc. From information, knowledge
  4. 4. Before I go on -- an important statement I am NOT opposed to ethanol Paragon Economics, Inc. From information, knowledge
  5. 5. First – an important statement I am NOT opposed to ethanol I DO PREFER IT AGED IN OAKEN BARRELS OR PRETTY GLASS BOTTLES! Paragon Economics, Inc. From information, knowledge
  6. 6. But we now have a direct link of corn to oil Paragon Economics, Inc. From information, knowledge
  7. 7. 2007 RFS – A hodge-podge of mandates . . .. . . Starch-based is the critical one – for now Paragon Economics, Inc. From information, knowledge
  8. 8. Ethanol used more corn than F/R in „10 & „11 Paragon Economics, Inc. From information, knowledge
  9. 9. Last year‟s ethanol output – PROFITS! Ethanol: $2.33/gal Corn: $5.22/bu Natural Gas: $1.98/mmBtu Paragon Economics, Inc. From information, knowledge
  10. 10. Ethanol output has run ahead of the RFS! Paragon Economics, Inc. From information, knowledge
  11. 11. Distillers had to export the excess output! Source: Renewable Fuels Assn. Paragon Economics, Inc. From information, knowledge
  12. 12. Main customers: Brazil and Canada Source: Renewable Fuels Assn. Paragon Economics, Inc. From information, knowledge
  13. 13. We expect little change in ethanol usage Already above RFS Have completely saturated E10 market E15 approved BUT NOT ACCEPTED by retailers – year limitations, liabilities NO INCENTIVE for new plants KEY ISSUE: Calling corn-based ethanol an “advanced biofuel” and carving out some more mandate– BAD DEAL!!! Paragon Economics, Inc. From information, knowledge
  14. 14. Feed demand should increase in 2012-13 . . . . . . But not by USDA‟s 900 mil. bushels!!! Higher hog numbers - SLOW growth in sow herd - 2%-plus productivity gains More chickens – NOT rapid - Year-over-year increases beginning in June - +2-4% from June „12 thru 2013 Turkeys – steady to slightly growing Lower cattle on feed but these have less impact than they once did – DDGS, others Paragon Economics, Inc. From information, knowledge
  15. 15. World stocks have tightened steadily Paragon Economics, Inc. From information, knowledge
  16. 16. But stocks/use ratios are MUCH tighter! Paragon Economics, Inc. From information, knowledge
  17. 17. The big question: How much will China take? Paragon Economics, Inc. From information, knowledge
  18. 18. Once a BIG exporter – now an importer . . . . . . FOREVER (???) and likely a LARGE one! Paragon Economics, Inc. From information, knowledge
  19. 19. Historical corn exporters – U.S. smaller . . . . . . Brazil now a player, China disappeared Paragon Economics, Inc. From information, knowledge
  20. 20. Even though China‟s output is 60% of U.S.! Paragon Economics, Inc. From information, knowledge
  21. 21. Primary cause of current situation . . . . . . Two straight below-trend U.S. yields Paragon Economics, Inc. From information, knowledge
  22. 22. Pushed cash corn to record highs in „10 Paragon Economics, Inc. From information, knowledge
  23. 23. Corn stocks to use ratio near historic lows Paragon Economics, Inc. From information, knowledge - 23 -
  24. 24. Incentive to plant corn – record acres -- ? Paragon Economics, Inc. From information, knowledge
  25. 25. Planting was completed in record time Paragon Economics, Inc. From information, knowledge
  26. 26. Emergence has been near a record pace Paragon Economics, Inc. From information, knowledge
  27. 27. There were concerns about moisture – 4/24 Paragon Economics, Inc. From information, knowledge
  28. 28. Now better but a bit dry in a lot of places . . . Paragon Economics, Inc. From information, knowledge
  29. 29. Corn crop condition is near record high . . . . . . „07 and „10 were actually better on 6/3 Paragon Economics, Inc. From information, knowledge
  30. 30. 2012 yield – which trend do you want . . .Biotech is 163.7, „60-‟11 is 159.1, 4 poly = 158 Paragon Economics, Inc. From information, knowledge
  31. 31. May WASDE – First yield estimate was BIG U.S. CORN SUPPLY AND UTILIZATION - MAY 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 Estimate USDA %Chng vs. April USDA May 10-11 Acres Planted Mil A 88.2 88.2 NA 95.9 8.7% Acres Harvested Mil A 81.4 81.4 NA 89.1 9.5% Yield Bu/A 152.8 152.8 NA 166.0 8.6% Beginning Stocks Mil Bu. 1708 1708 NA 851 -50.2% Production Mil Bu. 12447 12447 NA 14790 18.8% Imports Mil Bu. 28 27 NA 15 -44.4% Total Supply Mil Bu. 14182 14182 NA 15656 10.4% Feed & Residual Mil Bu. 4793 4550 NA 5450 19.8% Ethanol for fuel Mil Bu. 5021 5000 NA 5000 0.0% Non-Ethanol FSI Mil Bu. 1407 1405 NA 1425 1.4% Exports Mil Bu. 1835 1700 NA 1900 11.8% Total Usage Mil Bu. 13055 12655 NA 13775 8.9% Carryover Mil Bu. 1128 851 NA 1881 121.0% Stocks/Use 8.6% 6.7% NA 13.7% 103.1% Nat. Wtd. Avg. Farm Price $/Bu. 5.18 5.95 - 6.25 NA 4.20 - 5.00 -24.6% Paragon Economics, Inc. From information, knowledge
  32. 32. March 1 stocks were tightest since 2007 Paragon Economics, Inc. From information, knowledge
  33. 33. USDA‟s current price forecasts is high . . . . . . Relative to historical S/U‟s of 13-14 Paragon Economics, Inc. From information, knowledge
  34. 34. Historical prices vs. stocks/use ratios Paragon Economics, Inc. From information, knowledge
  35. 35. Yield scenarios – could see LOW prices CORN SUPPLY, UTILIZATION & PRICE SCENARIOS 2012-13 Scenarios Biotech 60-11 USDA, May 11 Yield Yield Trend Yield Acres Planted Mil A 95.9 95.9 95.9 95.9 Acres Harvested Mil A 89.1 87.7 87.7 87.7 Yield Bu/A 166.0 163.7 159.1 147.2 0.0 Beginning Stocks Mil Bu. 851 851 851 851 Production Mil Bu. 14790 14364 13961 12917 Imports Mil Bu. 15 15 15 15 Total Supply Mil Bu. 15656 15230 14827 13783 Feed & Residual Mil Bu. 5450 4800 4700 4600 Ethanol for fuel Mil Bu. 5000 5000 5000 5000 Non-Ethanol FSI Mil Bu. 1425 1420 1420 1405 Exports Mil Bu. 1900 2000 2000 1700 Total Usage Mil Bu. 13775 13220 13120 12705 Carryover Mil Bu. 1881 2010 1707 1078 Stocks/Use 13.7% 15.2% 13.0% 8.5% Nat. Wtd. Avg. Farm Price $/Bu. 4.20 - 5.00 <4.00 4.00-4.25 5.30-5.80 Paragon Economics, Inc. From information, knowledge
  36. 36. World soybean situation MUCH different . . . . . . Pending, of course, the U.S. crop Paragon Economics, Inc. From information, knowledge
  37. 37. Near-record SB stocks, HIGH stocks/use Paragon Economics, Inc. From information, knowledge
  38. 38. China is even more important to soy trade! Paragon Economics, Inc. From information, knowledge
  39. 39. Higher S/U ratio but HIGHER price = Demand Paragon Economics, Inc. From information, knowledge
  40. 40. But beans were underprices vs. corn . . . . . . We attribute most of the rally to this Paragon Economics, Inc. From information, knowledge
  41. 41. Soybean S&U – Lower acres, TIGHT supplies! U.S. SOYBEAN SUPPLY & UTILIZATION - MAY 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 USDA USDA % Chng April May vs 11-12 Acres Planted Mil A 77.4 75.0 NA 73.9 -1.5% Acres Harvested Mil A 76.6 73.6 NA 73.0 -0.8% Yield Bu/A 43.5 41.5 NA 43.9 5.8% Beginning Stocks Mil Bu. 151 215 NA 210 -2.3% Production Mil Bu. 3329 3056 NA 3205 4.9% Imports Mil Bu. 14 15 NA 15 0.0% Total Supply Mil Bu. 3495 3286 NA 3430 4.4% Crushings Mil Bu. 1648 1645 NA 1655 0.6% Exports Mil Bu. 1501 1315 NA 1505 14.4% Seed Mil Bu. 87 86 NA 89 3.5% Residual Mil Bu. 43 30 NA 36 20.0% Total Usage Mil Bu. 3280 3076 NA 3285 6.8% Carryover Mil Bu. 215 210 NA 145 -31.0% Stocks/Use 6.6% 6.8% NA 4.4% -35.3% Nat. Wtd. Avg. Farm Price $/Bu. 11.30 12.35 NA 12.00 - 14.00 -0.8% Soybean Oil Price Cents/lb. 53.2 53.50 52.50-56.5 0.0% Soybean Meal Price $/ton 345.52 360.00 335 - 365 -4.2% Paragon Economics, Inc. From information, knowledge
  42. 42. BIG question: Is this actually the demand? Paragon Economics, Inc. From information, knowledge
  43. 43. We do not expect meal to get cheap Paragon Economics, Inc. From information, knowledge
  44. 44. What country is the #2 wheat producer? Paragon Economics, Inc. From information, knowledge
  45. 45. What country is the #2 wheat producer? Paragon Economics, Inc. From information, knowledge
  46. 46. Wheat exports – Driven by RUSSIA! Paragon Economics, Inc. From information, knowledge
  47. 47. Wheat is in ample supply worldwide Paragon Economics, Inc. From information, knowledge
  48. 48. Near record stocks, comfortable stocks/use Paragon Economics, Inc. From information, knowledge
  49. 49. And wheat is NOT keeping up with corn . . . . . . and is now a feed grain in U.S. – always? Paragon Economics, Inc. From information, knowledge
  50. 50. Winter wheat conditions are VERY good U.S.: 52% good/excellent, 82% fair+ (vs. 34% and 56% last year!) Hard Red Wheat areas: - Texas: 26% good/excellent, 58% fair+ - Oklahoma: 72% good/excellent - Kansas: 40% good/excellent - Colorado: 39% good/excellent Soft Wheat areas: - Illinois: 72% good/excellent - Missouri 63%, Ohio 51% Paragon Economics, Inc. From information, knowledge
  51. 51. Higher output = lower prices = higher usage U.S. WHEAT SUPPLY AND UTILIZATION - MAY 2011/12 2010/11 % Chng 2010/11 Estimate vs. 10- USDA April USDA May 11 Acres Planted Mil A 53.6 54.4 NA 55.9 2.8% Acres Harvested Mil A 47.6 45.7 NA 49.2 7.7% Yield Bu/A 46.3 43.7 NA 45.7 4.6% Beginning Stocks Mil Bu. 976 862 NA 768 -10.9% Production Mil Bu. 2207 1999 NA 2245 12.3% Imports Mil Bu. 97 120 NA 120 0.0% Total Supply Mil Bu. 3279 2982 NA 3133 5.1% Food Mil Bu. 926 930 NA 945 1.6% Seed Mil Bu. 71 79 NA 73 -7.6% Feed/Residual Mil Bu. 132 180 NA 230 27.8% Domestic Usage Mil Bu. 1128 1189 NA 1248 5.0% Exports Mil Bu. 1289 1025 NA 1150 12.2% Total Usage Mil Bu. 2417 2214 NA 2398 8.3% Carryover Mil Bu. 862 768 NA 735 -4.3% Stocks/Use 35.7% 34.7% NA 30.7% -11.6% Nat. Wtd. Avg. Farm Price $/Bu. $5.70 $7.25 NA 5.50 - 6.70 0.7% Paragon Economics, Inc. From information, knowledge
  52. 52. Summary Corn is strictly a weather situation - Early planting takes away some risk - Good yield – near $4, perhaps a bit lower - 2011 yield – near $6 - A real drought -- $8 could still happen - Counting on big exports to China Soybeans – fighting for acres and probably losing - Normal yield will still get us $13 beans - Meal in the $350-$400 range likely Paragon Economics, Inc. From information, knowledge
  53. 53. Summary – continued Wheat – now a feedgrain much of the time in the U.S. - Grown everywhere in the world, planted and harvested somewhere about every day - $5-$6 wheat is profitable in other countries - Russia is the key – drives exports - HRW crop has deteriorated some but is still very good – and FAR BETTER than in „11 - Even with lower corn, wheat will be competitive in AREAS and at certain TIMES Paragon Economics, Inc. From information, knowledge
  54. 54. Key issues for „12 have not changed much. . . Domestic demand – LFTB-BSE, U.S. economy, consumer income levels Exports – World economy, exchange rates, trade policy, disease status Feed prices –2012 acreage, moisture situation and yields, SBM costs Supplies – Inventories, potential profits, productivity, herd health, weights, constraints Paragon Economics, Inc. From information, knowledge
  55. 55. LIVESTOCK & MEAT Paragon Economics, Inc. From information, knowledge
  56. 56. Broiler production is DOWN 5.2% YTD Paragon Economics, Inc. From information, knowledge
  57. 57. Pork production is now UP 2.2% YTD Paragon Economics, Inc. From information, knowledge
  58. 58. Beef production is DOWN 2.9% YTD Paragon Economics, Inc. From information, knowledge
  59. 59. Turkey production is up 2.3% YTD . . . Paragon Economics, Inc. From information, knowledge
  60. 60. Total supply is DOWN 2.3% & exports are up Paragon Economics, Inc. From information, knowledge
  61. 61. Freezer stocks: +7.5% & highest since „08 . . . . . .Beef + 17, pork +20, turkey +20, chicken -18 Paragon Economics, Inc. From information, knowledge
  62. 62. Some demand factors are positive (?) - GDP Paragon Economics, Inc. From information, knowledge
  63. 63. Consumer sentiment: Highest since Feb . . . . . . How will U-rate rise impact it? Paragon Economics, Inc. From information, knowledge
  64. 64. Food spending is rising again Grocery store sales +2.9%, yr/yr in April Foodservice sales +8.5%, yr/yr in April April combined: +5.6% yr/yr Paragon Economics, Inc. From information, knowledge
  65. 65. RPI is better but fell slightly in April . . . . . . with Current Situation Index down 1 pt. Paragon Economics, Inc. From information, knowledge
  66. 66. Domestic meat demand improved in ‟11 . . . . . . „12 thru April is mixed Paragon Economics, Inc. From information, knowledge
  67. 67. Real PDI is still stagnant – and . . . . . . May revisions show that it is WORSE! Paragon Economics, Inc. From information, knowledge
  68. 68. Getting some help from gasoline prices . . . . . . +8.1% yr/yr YTD mid-April, since then 3.8% Paragon Economics, Inc. From information, knowledge
  69. 69. Impact of LFTB LFTB was negative publicity for MEAT, not just ground beef Took 400-500 million pounds out of lean beef supply At 3:1 conversion and 75% abandonment, put 900 million pounds of 50s back on the market – now appears permanent BSE was a non-factor in spite of what some media tried to make it Paragon Economics, Inc. From information, knowledge
  70. 70. Not hard to see the impact! Paragon Economics, Inc. From information, knowledge
  71. 71. Record-high retail prices – good but have . . . . . high retail prices strangled movement? Paragon Economics, Inc. From information, knowledge
  72. 72. WORLD DEMAND Paragon Economics, Inc. From information, knowledge
  73. 73. Dollar Index futures are up 12% since Sept . . Paragon Economics, Inc. From information, knowledge
  74. 74. The peso and won have lost value AGAIN . . . . . . yen and renminbi remain strong Paragon Economics, Inc. From information, knowledge
  75. 75. Competitor currencies have weakened . . . . . . Especially the real – down 34% from July Paragon Economics, Inc. From information, knowledge
  76. 76. Pork exports: up 23% in „11, RECORD LARGE . . . . . . Any growth in 2012 will be a victory Paragon Economics, Inc. From information, knowledge
  77. 77. Pork exports +17%, led by China/HK at +112% . . . Canada +28%, Mexico +15%, Japan +3.4% Paragon Economics, Inc. From information, knowledge
  78. 78. Beef exports were RECORD LARGE in 2011 U S BEEF AND VEAL EXPORTS Carcass Weight, Annual Bil. Pounds 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 Paragon Economics, Inc. From information, knowledge
  79. 79. Beef: More markets but slower shipments . . . . . Total -12% thru March – Korea, Mexico Paragon Economics, Inc. From information, knowledge
  80. 80. Broiler exports were RECORD LARGE in ‟11 . . . . . . And will remain roughly level thru „13 U S BROILER EXPORTS RTC, Annual Bil. Pounds 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 Paragon Economics, Inc. From information, knowledge
  81. 81. Chicken exports are up 13.5% thru March . . . . . . Led by China, Mexico, Russia and CIS Paragon Economics, Inc. From information, knowledge
  82. 82. Current cost estimates – Mid-$80s for „12 Paragon Economics, Inc. From information, knowledge
  83. 83. Fed cattle costs near $140 by Q3-Q4 Paragon Economics, Inc. From information, knowledge
  84. 84. CHICKEN Paragon Economics, Inc. From information, knowledge
  85. 85. Brdr flock is up 5% from November but . . . . . . is still 6% smaller than a year ago Paragon Economics, Inc. From information, knowledge
  86. 86. AGGRESSIVE broiler cuts since mid-summer. . DOWN 4.7% YTD 2012 Are -4.0% YTD 2012 Paragon Economics, Inc. From information, knowledge
  87. 87. AGGRESSIVE broiler cuts since mid-summer. . DOWN 5.4% YTD 2012 But production is down only 5.4% YTD Paragon Economics, Inc. From information, knowledge
  88. 88. Heavy (8-9 lb.) birds will be more the norm . . . . . . Efficiencies – but more breast meat Paragon Economics, Inc. From information, knowledge
  89. 89. Broiler cutout went above $100 4 wks ago. . . . . . traction from cutbacks has been slow Paragon Economics, Inc. From information, knowledge
  90. 90. Bls/Sknls breasts hit $150 last 5/18 . . . . . . $160-165 in Aug-Sept, $145-150 in Q4 Paragon Economics, Inc. From information, knowledge
  91. 91. Wings have been the HUGE surprise . . .. . . Down to $170 this summer, up to $180 Q4 Paragon Economics, Inc. From information, knowledge
  92. 92. CATTLE & BEEF Paragon Economics, Inc. From information, knowledge
  93. 93. Beef and cattle Worst of LFTB is behind us – lingering demand impact on 50s BSE case was a non-event Higher feedlot inventories will continue to provide LOWER steer-heifer numbers Though disappointing in March and April, the Choice cutout is back above $195 Lower supplies through 2014 – will still push beef prices up as demand rebounds Paragon Economics, Inc. From information, knowledge
  94. 94. Last summer‟s drought is STILL the driver State Beef Cows (Thousand) TX 5025 OK 2036 KS 1478 FL 926 CO 727 AL 659 GA 502 MS 495 NM 488 LA 461 NC 351 SC 184 AZ 180 Total 13512 Share 43.8% Paragon Economics, Inc. From information, knowledge
  95. 95. May 1 COF was down 1% -- 1st time in 2 yrs. . . . . . How to reconcile with LOWER slaughter? Paragon Economics, Inc. From information, knowledge
  96. 96. Str/Hfr slghtr down yr/yr in 42 of last 46 wks. . . .and is down 5.0% YTD – HORRIBLE margins Paragon Economics, Inc. From information, knowledge
  97. 97. No turn-around in sight for availability. . . . . . Per-cap down 2-3% in „12 and 3%+ in „13 Paragon Economics, Inc. From information, knowledge
  98. 98. Choice cutout was headed for $200-plus . . . . . . But was “slimed” – again above $195 Paragon Economics, Inc. From information, knowledge
  99. 99. FC supplies on Jan 1 were down 4% from „11 Paragon Economics, Inc. From information, knowledge
  100. 100. Record-high calf prices have barely blinked Paragon Economics, Inc. From information, knowledge
  101. 101. BIG, BIG incentives to grow the cow herd! Paragon Economics, Inc. From information, knowledge
  102. 102. Heifers retained were 1.4% lower than in „11 Paragon Economics, Inc. From information, knowledge
  103. 103. Pasture conditions are improving – Exc West Paragon Economics, Inc. From information, knowledge
  104. 104. Higher cattle/beef will last through 2014! Paragon Economics, Inc. From information, knowledge
  105. 105. HOGS & PORK Paragon Economics, Inc. From information, knowledge
  106. 106. March H&P report – close to expectations. . . USDA Quarterly Hogs and Pigs Report March 30, 2012 12 as Pct Pre- Actual - Category 2011 2012 of 11 Report Estimate Inventories on March 11 All hogs and pigs 63684 64872 101.9 101.7 0.2 Kept for breeding 5788 5820 100.6 100.3 0.3 Kept for market 57896 59052 102.0 101.8 0.2 Under 50 lbs. 18863 19332 102.5 101.5 1.0 50-119 lbs. 16060 16456 102.5 101.9 0.6 120-179 lbs. 12361 12569 101.7 101.9 -0.2 180 lbs. and over 10612 10695 100.8 102.1 -1.3 Farrowings 2 Dec-Feb sows farrowed 2843 2877 101.2 100.7 0.5 Mar-May Intentions 2917 2890 99.1 100.2 -1.1 Jun-Aug Intentions 2927 2880 98.4 100.3 -1.9 Dec-Feb Pig Crop1 27866 28681 102.9 102.4 0.5 Dec-Feb pigs saved per litter 9.8 9.97 101.7 101.7 0.0 *Thousand head **Thousand litters Paragon Economics, Inc. From information, knowledge
  107. 107. Litter size growth 2.0% over past 4 years. . . . . . How high can litter size go? Paragon Economics, Inc. From information, knowledge
  108. 108. YTD slaughter within 0.1% of expected. . . . . . But look at April-May – summer +2-2.5% Paragon Economics, Inc. From information, knowledge
  109. 109. Wts. remain high but will fall seasonally . . .. . .„12 increases: weather, margins, matrixes Paragon Economics, Inc. From information, knowledge
  110. 110. YTD pork production is +2.2% from 2011 . . . And I expect +2.5 to3.0% rest of „12 Paragon Economics, Inc. From information, knowledge
  111. 111. Cutout value has rebounded . . .. . Normal rally? Now very small -- $92 in Aug? Paragon Economics, Inc. From information, knowledge
  112. 112. Hog prices dipped below $80. . . . . . But can still get to $90-$94 in August Paragon Economics, Inc. From information, knowledge
  113. 113. „12 profits reached $19/hd in mid-Feb . . . . . .-$5/hd 2 wks ago, now +$5.70/hd Paragon Economics, Inc. From information, knowledge
  114. 114. Price forecasts have been lowered . . . . . . But have they been lowered enough? March 2012 Hogs & Pigs - Price Forecasts Mizzou ISU LMIC Paragon CME Producer-Sold Ia-Mn Wtd. National Net Net Price, All Avg. Base National Wtd Negd Price, CME Lean Hog Methods Lean Hog 1 Avg. Base Price Wtd. Avg. Futures 6/4/12 2011 Q1 80.54 78.92 79.74 80.91 81.54** Q2 92.36 89.37 89.53 94.89 93.97** Q3 95.59 92.31 92.25 97.61 97.49** Q4 87.39 85.94 85.17 87.92 88.11** Year 89.12 86.64 86.40 86.40 90.28** 2012 Q1 86.56 84.27 84.36 86.11 86.44** Q2 88-92 89-92 86-95 89-93 85.20 Q3 89-93 89-92 91-96 90-94 89.24 Q4 81-85 80-83 82-88 82-86 81.26 Year 86-89 86-88 87-91 87-90 85.54 2013 Q1 83-87 83-86 84-90 83-87 82.00 1 Prior to Q2-11, ISU forecasts were Ia-Mn Live Price converted using a 75% yield **Average of CME Lean Hog Index Paragon Economics, Inc. From information, knowledge
  115. 115. Risks to the outlook Export disruption – not even a major one would have a big impact More LFTB-type, libelous crap Poor growing weather and below-trend crop yields For cattle: Worsening of drought For hogs: Any problem with a packing plant in Q4 of 2012 or 2013, BH growth > 1% in 2012 Paragon Economics, Inc. From information, knowledge
  116. 116. Questions or Comments? Paragon Economics, Inc. From information, knowledge

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