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Role of IT in Evidence-based Policy in the VUCA Era

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Role of IT in Evidence-based Policy in the VUCA Era

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Presented in “Workshop on Sharing Best Practices on Leveraging the Benefits of Artificial Intelligence on Intellectual Property Examination to Improve Efficiency and Business Process”, collaboration between APEC and Directorate General of Intellectual Property Rights, Ministry of Law and Human Rights, Republic of Indonesia
Bali, 29 November 2022

Dr. Tri Widodo W. Utomo, MA

Deputy Chairperson for Policy Studies & Public Sector Innovation, National Institute of Public Administration (LAN-RI)


Presented in “Workshop on Sharing Best Practices on Leveraging the Benefits of Artificial Intelligence on Intellectual Property Examination to Improve Efficiency and Business Process”, collaboration between APEC and Directorate General of Intellectual Property Rights, Ministry of Law and Human Rights, Republic of Indonesia
Bali, 29 November 2022

Dr. Tri Widodo W. Utomo, MA

Deputy Chairperson for Policy Studies & Public Sector Innovation, National Institute of Public Administration (LAN-RI)

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Role of IT in Evidence-based Policy in the VUCA Era

  1. 1. Dr. Tri Widodo W. Utomo, MA Deputy Chairperson for Policy Studies & Public Sector Innovation, National Institute of Public Administration (LAN-RI) THEROLEOFINFORMATIONTECHNOLOGY IN EVIDENCE-BASED POLICY INTHEVUCAERA Presented in “Workshop on Sharing Best Practices on Leveraging the Benefits of Artificial Intelligence on Intellectual Property Examination to Improve Efficiency and Business Process”, collaboration between APEC and Directorate General of Intellectual Property Rights, Ministry of Law and Human Rights, Republic of Indonesia Bali, 29 November 2022
  2. 2. "Politics in the twentieth century was dominated by a central question: how much of our collective life should be determined by the state, and what should be left to the market and civil society? For the generation now approaching political maturity, the debate will be different: to what extent should our lives be directed and controlled by powerful digital systems - and on what terms?" Future Politics: Living Together in a World Transformed by Tech Jamie Susskind. 2018. Oxford University Press
  3. 3. MAINCHARACTERISTIC OFCURRENT WORLD V U A VOLATILITY Refers to constantly changing situation from one state to another. UNCERTAINTY Refers to a situation where there is a lack of specific information that makes it difficult to predict the future. COMPLEXITY Refers to the number of unknown factors that affect a condition, and the relationship between these factors. C AMBIGUITY Refers to indecisive in determining various policy options due to an uncertain situation
  4. 4. o 73.7% of Indonesian adults now use the internet, and every virtual move they make – while shopping, connecting with friends, sending work emails, streaming videos and so on – is recorded. o By 2020, the vast majority of people in the world will be able to access almost any information, communicate and collaborate with almost anyone, and broadcast their opinions globally, from any location, at any time, and at a low cost. o Billions of people use platforms like Facebook, Instagram, and Twitter (with billions more on Chinese platforms like WeChat) to talk with friends, share their thoughts and activities. o This has changed the nature of communication: individuals can now communicate directly with the public without having to rely on conventional media such as newspapers or television, and messages can be personalized and targeted to a level that was previously impossible. WHAT HAS CHANGED?
  5. 5. In 2019, human activities around the world generate 45 zettabytes of data, and will increased to 175 zettabytes by 2025. On average, humans generate 2.5 exabytes per day (1 exabytes = 1 million terabytes). Source: Agus Laksono. 2021. “Data Science, Bigdata,and ArtificialIntelligence: Its Utilizationin Policy Analysis”. Virtual Public Lecture for Policy Analyst. NIPA THEGROWTHOFDATA
  6. 6. DATA/EVIDENCE-BASED POLICY ININDONESIA IS WEAK The lack of knowledge intermediaries who bridge research and policy to policy makers. even if there is, the capacity is not sufficient. Lack of Knowledge Broker A career as a researcher has not become an important choice for Indonesian HR Research career is not promosing yet Research funding is very minimal, not balanced with the teaching function Research tradition at the university has not developed rapidly Political support and budget allocation for research is very little (0,2% of GDP, 2016) Funding for research The data generated by policy analysts has not been seen as an important resource in policy making The tradition of using knowledge/data in policy is still weak • Balitbang has not been positioned as a strategic unit that provides policy-making materials • The capacity of Balitbang HR is still low • Extremely limited of R & D budget The role of government research and development agency is less effective Source: Prasetiamartati,Carden, Ruhanawati, Rakhmani, Nugroho (2018)
  7. 7. The Ideal World The Real World Policy making is based on EVIDENCE (data, information, research) Policy making is commonly based on:  Intuition  Common sense  Experience  Ideology  Public opinion  Political interests that can swing from one end of the spectrum to the other for the sake of rent seeking. EVIDENCE-BASED POLICY: IDEALITY vs REALITY
  8. 8. THEURGENCY OFEVIDENCE-BASED POLICY INACCURATE RESEARCH INCOMPLETE RESEARCH Evidence-based policy is important to prevent policy failures. Policy failures happen for two basic reasons:
  9. 9. UNINTENDEDCONSEQUENCES OFPOLICY In 1989, the government of Mexico City tried to control air pollution by banning most drivers from driving their vehicle one weekday per week. This policy is still in place today. Violators of this policy were charged a large fine. The policy backfired: Many drivers bought another car—often a used, high emissions car, which ended up worsening the pollution (Davis: 2004, in Chollete: 2021), The unintended consequence of drivers buying an additional used car made this negative externality even worse Evidence-based policies are needed to avoid or minimize “unintended impacts” or unplanned consequences (concept introduced by Robert K. Morten, “The Unanticipated Consequences of Purposive Social Action”, Harvard University).
  10. 10. Source: Tomtom. https://www.tomtom.com/traffic-index/jakarta-traffic.2022 JAKARTA TRAFFIC CONGESTION  Traffic jams in Jakarta tend to be severe on Mondays.  6 am-8 am is the peak time for vehicle movement in the morning  Odd-Even policy applies.  Starting at 10 am-3 pm, the streets in Jakarta tend to be empty  the Odd-Even policy stops.  Avoid going home from work at 4 pm-7 pm because the mobility of vehicles is very high on the streets of Jakarta. The average congestion rate at 6PM is 85% in 2019  Odd-Even policy is reinstated. EXAMPLEOFDATA UTILIZATIONINPOLICY MAKING
  11. 11. Source: Indonesia Google mobility data during Covid-19, 2020 – 2022. COMMUNITY ACTIVITY RESTRICTION POLICY (PPKM)  Google Mobility noted that at the beginning of Covid-19 (2020) public activity decreased drastically due to the surge in Covid-19.  In July 2021, it can be seen that the mobility of the Indonesian people is increasing when the Delta variant spreads throughout the world and begins to hit Indonesia.  In August 2021, the government decided to implement PPKM after a very high spike in Covid-19 cases due to high community mobility. EXAMPLEOFDATA UTILIZATIONINPOLICY MAKING
  12. 12. 01 02 03 05 RATIONAL INCREMENTAL 04 SYSTEM GROUP ELITE Decision making should be based on alternative choices, looking for the most efficient/rational way of achieving policy objectives Public policy is a continuation of past government actions with only incremental modifications. Public policy is the output of the operation of a political system that is influenced by policy demands, policy processes, and policy outcomes. Public policy is seen as a process of responding to demands from various parties who have an interest in the policy issues. Public policy is seen as a preference of the political elite. Policy issues that enter the policy agenda are an agreement or the result of a compromise from the political elite. 5 MODELS OFPOLICY MAKING
  13. 13. Source: Deepak Chandra Misra, 2022 DEGREEOFINFORMATIONGATHERING INPOLICY MAKING MODELS
  14. 14. The more elitist the policy-making model is, the lower the tendency to use data in the preparation process. Meanwhile, the more stakeholders involved in the policy process (group model), the more data/information is needed. Source: Deepak Chandra Misra, 2022 ROLEOFDATA/INFORMATION INPOLICY MAKING MODELS
  15. 15.  Agenda Setting: through data, the government can identify the topics that emerge earlier and create a relevant agenda by collecting data from social networks and identifying citizens' policy preferences.  Policy Formulation: at this stage, data mining can help policy makers determine policy trends and changes in public opinion to be proposed to formulate the best policy options (Alfaro et al. 2013);  Policy Acceptance: data analysis is used to provide evidence of an ex-ante impact assessment of policy options, by helping predict the likely outcomes of different options. Problem Definition Data Understanding Result Visualization Data Mining Policy Devt & Modelling Policy Simulation Knowledge Consolidation o Framing policy problem & objectives o Identification of problem impacts o Selection of indicators o Stakeholders mapping o Data sources selection o Data acquisition and preparation o Identification of pattern and correlation o Data mining for model validation o Policy design o Screening of policy options/alternati ves o Behavioral data integration o Models integration o Impact assessment o Big data experimentation o Parameter’s space exploration Stakeholders communication o Reporting o Policy drafting POLICY MAKING BASED0NBIGDATA Giest (2017): “A large amount of official data collected at different levels of government and in different domains, such as tax systems, social programs, health records and the like, can—with their digitization—be used to decision-making in the fields of education, economics, health, and social policy”.
  16. 16. Indonesia starts embracing digital transformation agenda, yet current state of human capital might slowdown the process CHALLENGES INPROMOTING ICT AS TOOLFOREVIDENCE-BASED POLICY ICT: Information & Communication Technology ASN: Civil Servant Competency Scale: 0-4 Source: Research and Development Board, Ministry of Communication and Informatics, 2018
  17. 17. Sumber: Deloitte, Gov2020: A Journey into the Future of Government, 2015 INDONESIA GLOBAL DIGITAL INDEX & ICT INDEX According to BPS, the Index of Technology, Information and Communication Development in Indonesia is relatively low (5.32) from a scale of 10 in 2019. This index is composed of 3 sub-indexes: 1) expertise, 2) access and infrastructure, and 3) usage.
  18. 18. REFORM o Encouraging the strengthening of policy research collaboration between research institutions. o Involvement of groups of technologists, data scientists, policy analysts in the policy making process with policy makers. Research Collaboration Reducing administrative barriers in the process of research, development, and public policy innovation. Reduce Bureaucratic Constraints o Encouraging problem-solving-oriented leadership through policy research. o Encouraging digital leadership in the bureaucracy. o Promoting researcher or policy analyst as promising profession in the bureaucracy. o Strengthening ASN competence through research and training programs. Reform in Research Culture Budgeting reform for research and policy studies by increasing research budgets at both government research centers and universities. Reform in Funding for Research ACTIONS NEEDEDTOBOOST EVIDENCE-BASED POLICY USING ICT
  19. 19. Thank You …

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