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AR and VR by the Numbers: A Data First Approach to the Technology and Market

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With AR and VR technologies, it’s the first time that data collection has been part of the front-end strategy vs back-end process. As companies compete to create new, interactive experiences, data is the tool of choice to measure all aspects of player engagement and marketing effectiveness. In this webinar, two industry experts, Nicolas Nadeau and Andrew Mayer, will talk about the trends driving AR and VR markets today, and what data-driven approaches companies need to think about to compete in these markets tomorrow.

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AR and VR by the Numbers: A Data First Approach to the Technology and Market

  1. 1. AR AND VR BY THE NUMBERS How Data is Affecting Market Growth and Internal Development
  2. 2. Welcome!
  3. 3. Our Speakers Nicolas Nadeau - President, Exostatic Multidisciplinary entrepreneur who has been working in the gaming industry for more than 15 years, Nicolas produced video games for Ubisoft, Disney and Gameloft with his first company in 1999. He then joined the ranks of EA followed by Ubisoft as an economic designer and producer. He founded exostatic.com 5 years ago and worked with major clients such as Microsoft (US), BBC (UK), Hoplon (Brazil) & Warner Brothers. Amongst others, Exostatic is notably in charge of the complete app data pipeline for Mattel as well as analytics for one of the leading VR game developers, Survios. Andrew Mayer, VR/AR Consultant His unique insights on gameplay, platform, and player interaction have translated into highly successful projects in a variety of mediums, from tabletop to television (and everything in-between). During that time Andrew has worked with numerous companies including Sony, Time Warner, EA/Bioware, and Telepictures Productions. He has integrated interactive experiences with major intellectual properties, including Batman, Tonka Toys, Reader Rabbit, The Ellen Show, and much more. Andrew currently works as a consultant and teacher, helping students and companies create more powerful interactive experiences through the effective integration of play, content, engagement, and monetization across numerous platforms, including mobile, VR, and AR.
  4. 4. AR/VR Market Overview • The combined global market for AR and VR could reach nearly $120 billion US in 2020 over several industries. • Over the next few years, AR will be deployed in multiple applications for businesses and the general public, whether it is in games, entertainment, training, education, journalism and consumption. • AR accessibility is why analysts like Digi-Capital have evaluated that its market will reach $89.9 billion US by 2020 (1). • VR’s global market is estimated to be$29.9 billion US by 2020(1).
  5. 5. The Case of AT&T and McKinsey in 1980: A Costly Mistake In 1980, telephone giant AT&T asked the renowned consulting firm McKinsey to predict the size of the mobile phone market for the year 2000. Based on the low penetration rate and technological limitations of the time (cumbersome devices, limited battery life, poor coverage and astronomical costs), McKinsey predicted that the total market would be 900,000 users in 2000 (1). AT&T then decided to delay its entry. Ten years later, it would have to pay $12.5 billion US to buy McCaw Cellular. (1) Source: McKinsey & Co. Isn’t All Roses in a New Book By Andrew Ross Sorkin, Sept. 2013, http://dealbook.nytimes.com/2013/09/02/in-a-new-book-mckinsey-co-isnt-all-roses/?_r=0
  6. 6. AR / VR Market size
  7. 7. VR Market size - growth yes, unclear how much
  8. 8. Analyzing a VR game checklist • Track & Segment by devices and OS • New installs vs new devices • Data overload has a cost. More data is NOT better. • Dig in Game data first, then VR. • Dev proficiency >> end user’s expertise. (gameplay balancing) • Segment by machine hardware (GPU, CPU) • Avoid render-lag induced Vomit-O-Tron(™) • Avoid network-lag induced Vomit-O-Tron(™) • Wild West, there is no defined standards / solutions on which to benchmark.
  9. 9. Track & Segment by devices and OS
  10. 10. New installs vs New devices
  11. 11. Data overload has a cost
  12. 12. Dig in Game data first, then VR.
  13. 13. Dev experience vs user expertise with hardware
  14. 14. Machine hardware segmentation important
  15. 15. Avoid render-lag induced Vomit-O-Tron(™)
  16. 16. Avoid network-lag induced Vomit-O-Tron(™)
  17. 17. Pioneerin’
  18. 18. AR Market Size
  19. 19. Investment, M&A for AR/VR
  20. 20. Other AR/VR Applications
  21. 21. AR on the Front End: Redefining data for augmented reality experiences.
  22. 22. AR 2017
  23. 23. AR 2017 The Good News • AR’s growth is taking off - Mostly due to mobile. - The 2017 growth numbers aren’t in, but we can expect them to be big. • Major platform releases keep coming. - ARKit for Apple - ARCore for Google - Hololens for MS
  24. 24. AR 2017 • There is deep AR integration into social media platforms. - Facebook, snapchat, etc.
  25. 25. AR 2017 • Users are excited by the possibilities. - Pokémon Go still has legs. - Online catalogs and virtual tryouts are the innovation leaders.
  26. 26. AR 2017 The Bad News • Mass Market AR headsets are farther off. - 2020 (at the earliest). - Users don’t want to pay top dollar - And probably won’t until 2020 (at the earliest). • Investment on the developer side is fading. - Outside of mobile applications.
  27. 27. AR 2017 • Right now AR is in the “experimental” phase. - Developers are still trying to figure out what AR really is. - My clients are still working out the fundamentals. - UX/UI, integration and monetization are still being developed.
  28. 28. DEFINING AR
  29. 29. Defining AR • AR is a data layer projected onto the real world. - An intelligent expression of data into real world.
  30. 30. Key Features AR • Context - Being able to put things into the world that weren’t there before. - This is primarily what we think of as AR right now.
  31. 31. Key Features AR • Interaction - The ability of the user to interact with objects in the environment.
  32. 32. DEFINING THE DATA MAP
  33. 33. Data Maps The “Deep” AR Data Map • Recognition - Where is the user? • Overlay - What can the user see in the world? • Annotation - What did the user do or change in the world?
  34. 34. AR Focus • Impact - On the front and back end. • What elements are the user engaging with? - How is the user engaging?
  35. 35. Focusing the data • What features are being used? - Are they using them the way you expected? - How does that define where should you be investing development dollars? • Improve virtual interaction. - Calibrate how the user is engaging beyond gathering fundamentals. - There’s lots of room left for innovation!
  36. 36. Using the Data • Will AR make your users convert? - It can, when it takes advantage of the environment. • Is your AR experience bring value to your user? - AR gathers attention & redefines the environment. - Reflect that value back to the user.
  37. 37. POWERFUL OUTCOMES
  38. 38. Conclusions • AR is Data - This makes data collection vital on both the front and back end. - Remember that you’re building a user-focused data overlay over the world.
  39. 39. Conclusions • Define your metrics. - Determine your expected outcomes. - Determine your scope. • Explore opportunities in the new model. - Where can you can add unique value to the AR experience. • Analyze the user experience. - And share that value with the user.
  40. 40. Emerging best practices for AR & VR DEBATE MARKET TRENDS TIPS ON HOW TO BE DATA-DRIVEN
  41. 41. Treasure CDP ID Unification, Segmentation, Syndication Workflow, Query, Reporting, Data Warehouse, Machine Learning Data Collection ID Unification, Segmentation, Syndication Campaign Execution
  42. 42. Contact Information • Level Up Design - www.levelupdesign.com • Exostatic - http://www.exostatic.com/ • Treasure Data - www.treasuredata.com
  43. 43. Sources 1. Digi-Capital 2016, Augmented/Virtual Reality Report 2016 2. McKinsey & Co. Isn’t All Roses in a New Book By Andrew Ross Sorkin, Sept.2013, http://dealbook.nytimes.com/2013/09/02/in-a-new-book-mckinsey-co-isnt-all-roses/?_r=0

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