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Enpc18

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future of mobility

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Enpc18

  1. 1. gabriel.plassat @ ademe.fr http://gabrielplassat.fr Mobility & Transportation System for the Future Which Mobility for the future ? For every one, everywhere In a world of less raw material and more intelligence …
  2. 2. gabriel.plassat @ ademe.fr Agence De l’Environnement et de la Maîtrise de l’Energie Service Transports et Mobilité, en charge des Energies et de la Prospective Mobility ? Business Models Multi modality Real time Pollutions Industry GHG Commuter (Open) Data SmartPhone Physical meeting VEHICLE ENERGY Infrastructure Future of Work
  3. 3. http://transportsdufutur.typepad.fr
  4. 4. Horse > Car > ?
  5. 5. LIEN =>
  6. 6. Money : more GDP => more km, more speed, alone … moins de TC : 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 0 10 20 30 40 50 Per Capita GDP @ PPP VehiclesPer1000People 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 0 10 20 30 40 50 Per Capita GDP @ PPP VehiclesPer1000People Vehicle Density vs. Income (for 2002 and 2007) Singapore Hong Kong United States W. Europe & Japan Empreinte écologique, Écart en % / moy (UK) Fundamentals of Mobility
  7. 7. http://air-climate.eionet.europa.eu/docs/ETCACC_TP_2009_10_prelim_AQQanalysis_2008.pdf First SYMPTOMS : Air POLLUTION Cadastre population POPULATION EXPOSITION POLLUTION IMPACT Function DESEASE & DEAD Numbers 0 EXTERNAL COSTS Air Pollution Map Population repartition COSTS [ ]
  8. 8. Suivi conso permanent en fonction de l’exploitation Suivi permanent des émissions de tous les polluants gazeux et particules en fonction de l’exploitation What IF real pollution was known in real time ? Who will produce this Information ?
  9. 9. Constraint on pollutants => Emissions norms Euro (IV to VI) Links pollutants / fuel consumption and GHG Le transport du futur devra concilier les 3 aspects : Diversification (alternative to fossile) + GHG emissions under constraints (Factor 4) + Pollutants Emissions under constraint (Euro X) => Optimisation of « components » like vehicle is not sufficient => Need to optimise also the SYSTEM Constraints on energy & GHG => diversification and efficiency Addition of constraints
  10. 10. Shanghai, China
  11. 11. Baku, Azerbaijan
  12. 12. Transports & Mobility, Today More info, clic here NEW Veh All Veh 1 to 3 Millions Drivers out of Norm : -insurance, -Permit -Technical control years
  13. 13. More info, clic here Transports & Mobility, Today urban Peri-urban, rural Mtoe Mtoe40 Mtoe road 50Mtoe tGHG/y
  14. 14. essential parameters : Type of mobility, daily – occasional, constraint - leisure, ... Age, income, Place of residence, Alternative offers available Identification and understanding of practices, of daily activities The solutions must adapt to the multiplicity of situations (explosions configurations) be "as good" as the individual car possessed: - economy, - flexibility, - environment - quality service ... Which mobility? Socio profil Mobility Behavior Automotive Behavior
  15. 15. Which mobility? Why do you use less your personnal car ? Reduce my demand It’s not green Lose my time stress It’s not usefull It’s expensive First reason to reduce car utilisation is economic (selfish) then green (altruistic)
  16. 16. Again, First reason to use bicycle is economic & healthy (selfish) then green (altruistic) Why do you use more a bicycle ? Increase demand It’s green It’s economic It’s healthy It’s rapid No stress Which mobility?
  17. 17. Which route toward Factor 4 ? New Technology New Vehicle on the road : • €, • too slow ! • If less FC then more km ! TODAY NO CLEAR and SHARED VISIONS TO REACH F4, Air Quality, reduce congestions GHG, Air Quality AQ
  18. 18. THE END
  19. 19. 4 pillars to consider a Mobility System The meeting, in a given area, of a user and … an energy: fossil, biomass, muscle, available through a distribution network, a vehicle (which converts the energy in motion): truck, car, bicycle, walking, available in own account or for others, property or shares, an infrastructure (which allow the movement and possibly easier): road, rail, urban planning, but also interfaces to change 'vehicle' : station, parking, delivery area, logistics platform, and Information (which allowed yesterday to facilitate the movement, and who will, tomorrow, optimize it): theoretical hourly, hourly real-time traffic, weather, … A Mobility System allows In order to realise an activity. REMEMBER
  20. 20. Industry Time scale for innovation Linked with Actors Vehicle : Automotive, HDV, 2 wheels, bicycle 5-10 years Infrastructures : shared, constraints private Energy : Oil, energy, some cities (biogas), some farmers (biofuels) 10-20 years Infrastructures : network distribution private Infrastructure : road, parking, rail operator, 20-50 years Vehicles, energy, information Publics Informations : Telecoms, citizen (!) 0.5-2 years Vehicle, energy, infra Publics (source) and private 4 pillars to consider a Mobility System
  21. 21. What performance criteria for a solution Mobility and Transport • Time door to door • Cost: investment, km • Quality: robustness to uncertainties, always-on connectivity or zero noise • Security: perceived real • Environmental performance: known or unknown, knowledge generally leads to optimization. The fact that they are known is already a step forward: • pollutants, GHG • Energy diversification, • Waste direct and indirect • noise • urban land use • link health / mobility (soft modes, pollution cabin)
  22. 22. 4 more free time in 100 years 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 aujourd'hui début siècle Time Transport Budget : Stable ~ 1h for over 20 years Need more speed for more distance Milliers d’heure The fundamentals, time TODAY 1900
  23. 23. From ultra deep exploration To ultra deep conversion Is fuel expensive ? 1.5€ (0.5€ for oil company) for 42 MJ Oil and fuels High Technology, More and more risky, High characteristics (energetic density in volum) Without any public recognition At a very LOW PRICE !!
  24. 24. The oil, squeezed between economic / environmental, toward a transition: variable depending on modes of transport, an acceptable price with alternatives necessarily massive to have a impact, in two waves: 1. explosion in the number of pathways, 2. specialization. 1st Wave: • 1st and 2nd generation biofuels with difficult assessments • Natural Gas "additived" with Biogas and H2, • Electricity (s) with variable performances, • Short loop (HAU, biogas, crude oil) in public or private management, With multiple solutions in most cases: actual performance of the multi well to wheel (Biocarb, electricity) sensitive Difficult Political decision making, little investment in infrastructure, difficult for manufacturers to follow all the pathway => The first wave could be long ... The fundamentals, Energy
  25. 25. 4000 engines / day Millisecond, milligram, Cubic Millimeter of fuel Micron machined 120 000 parts identical but all different 5 years warranty – 100 000 km Full Energy in 3 minutes 20+/- 0.5°C Very low emissions and consumption / kWh Vehicle – Internal Combustion Engine Particules NOx HC CO EURO III EURO 0 EURO -1 EURO I EURO II EURO IV 18 14,4 11,2 14 2,4 3,50,36 0,15 1,10,10 5,0 3,5 8,0 7,0 0,02 0,660,46 4,5 4,0 2,1 1,5 EURO V2,0 Understand domination (2)
  26. 26. OEM Les fondamentaux, L’organisation en filière
  27. 27. time Fuel Consumption Reduction due to Technical progress But real progress are null : Accessories (€ benefits) Pseudo performance (€ benefits) Constraints emissions / safety. 60 years of difference and same FC … Progress, but for whom? The fundamental, car economic model
  28. 28. 50 70 90 110 130 150 170 190 0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 30000 35000 40000 PSA BMW TOYOTA Puiss(kW) Prix (€) E E E ET D E D D D D D D D E E D Power (maxi) Is easy to sell ! 1200 1250 1300 1350 1400 1450 1500 0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 30000 35000 40000 PSA BMW TOYOTA essence Diesel Prix (€) Masse(kg) The car is sold by kilo, no vehicle manufacturer sell a car lighter and more expensive D D D D D D E EE ET The fundamental, car economic model
  29. 29. time Fuelcons isoperformance Potentiel of Technical benefits Marketing mass Real progress From "new needs" of consumers : Comfort, safety, 4x4 Increase "pseudo-performance" YESTERDAY The fundamental •Power (max, so unused by the client ...) •Flat screens in the headrests, air conditioning multizone ... (mass Merchant) •Respecting standards (Euro, security) •While being 'similar' in use => energy efficiency is not easy to sell time Fuelcons Reduction in Marketing mass Isoperformance => "90g Now" no extra cost More Marketing Mass More technology "My minivan hybrid" TOMORROW ou The fundamental, car economic model
  30. 30. Mobility Immobility Activity MutationS
  31. 31. Where are you working ? In US, 30% of workers are « alone » and it’s increasing
  32. 32. In the same time…
  33. 33. In the same time…
  34. 34. In the same time… VIDEO Google History
  35. 35. MOVE What about Health and Mobility ?
  36. 36. In the same time…
  37. 37. In the same time…
  38. 38. How to join the « power of network » @BlaBlaCar_FR
  39. 39. Question is not « How can we can a 2 l/100 km car ? » But « What are the best mobility experiences, Who will produce theses experiences ? » Multimodality, Connexion, Mobility … Digital become Major Technology We see the world across Digital technology Automotive is not main Matrix anymore A RETENIR
  40. 40. Fashion clothing « low cost & functional»2-3 wheels … From multi-use… Std Business model Fashion vehicle Cybercar High technology Transition from multi- to mono-use increase efficiency, reduce congestion and Allow new energy and technology penetration like electricity … ( can answer to « why not yesterday ? Why tomorrow ? What’s gona change ? » ) Transition will appear with business model modification : from vehicle to mobility services To mono-use… Towards Mobility 2.0
  41. 41. Mono usage 2-3 roues … From multi-use… Fashion clothing Walk, Bike Vélib’ Car Car sharing Location Autolib’ Carpooling Taxi Transp. On demand Bus, tram métro taxi Individual association business collective Public Semi public Private
  42. 42. All energies B to C et B to B Functionnality economy Top down Bottom up B to B Real Perfo Emissions Real Fuel cons TCO Mobility 2.0 Complete mobility service from door to door Oil + engine Multi-usage Economy of vehicle Top down B to C & B to B Mobility 1.0 + Infra 2.0 + New Authority 2.0 (multimodal, With targets Air Quality, GHG, congestion…) + Personnal Travel Assistant + Open Data (etalab) Political Decisions REMEMBER
  43. 43. Autopartag e entre part. Autop. « opéré » Flotte de voiture « opérée » Vélo Libre serv. Voiture possédée Integration / complexification for operators Integration / Simplification For users
  44. 44. Mobility Integrated & factor 4 More info, clic here How to engage these changement quickly ? Better utilisa° Of public transp.
  45. 45. From horse to car From car to ?
  46. 46. Integration & Simplification of all transports modes More info, clic here A.P.M. Personal Travel Assistant (PTA) Autolib Vélib CarSharingPeer2 Peer CarPooling Yesterday Today Tomorrow Public = private Indiv = Collective => « free seat market » Simple & real time access (insurance, inscrip°…) Simple & real time exit (payment, reputa°)
  47. 47. + 1% / year Connexion 1/8 years Incremental + 10-100% / year Daily connexion Change Mobility behavior Calèche > Automobile > ?
  48. 48. With the service we can (need) to Re-design the vehicle : EDAG & Vélib … Velib is an innovation, but a system innovation bring with ITS, infrastructure and business model Velib bicycle is not a good bicycle but Velib service is successfull ! Velib service bring new Practise. « Bad » Velib bike design are low important than benefits on Velib service. Then Vehicle designed for services will be « poor » for standard vehicle consumer & GE will be best positionned to design EV for Mobility Services …
  49. 49. Always Car but BETTER utilisation & connected to Public Transport More info, clic here New Car and other Nrj Lighter Pay as you move More passenger per car Raw material & Investment In excess Raw material & Investment mutualised Pay as you use Access simplif. Payment Insurance Identity confidence Identity Historic reputation
  50. 50. pers.km (flux) Billions City Extra urban Long dist. TOTAL PC PC serv. Train Bus Bike 2 W 2 W serv TOTAL 700 City Extra urban Long dist. TOTAL PC PC serv. Train Bus Bike 2 W 2 W serv TOTAL / pers / vehicle = City Extra urban Long dist. TOTAL PC PC serv. Train Bus Bike 2 W 2 W serv TOTAL vehicle.km combustion combustion + electricity electricity gCO2/km – MJ/km combustion combustion + electricity electricity Utilisation (% distance) average gCO2/km – MJ/km X = X = MTCO2 – MJ By energy By vehicle ADEME 2030-2050 calculations (GHG/MJ)
  51. 51. ADEME 2030-2050 calculations (GHG/MJ) 200,0 300,0 400,0 500,0 600,0 700,0 800,0 900,0 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 Voyageurs March 325 Flux de véhicule (Md véh.km) Flux de voyageur (Md voy.km) et de Marchandises (G T.km) 343 377 711 790 750 425 428 300 77 85 60 24 22 27 pers.km, vehicle.km and ton.km(flux) Pers/veh in PC serv: 1,2 1,5 2 % flux by PC serv 0 (city/extra/LD) 10-10-5 25-20-15 Pers/veh in Bus ref +20% +20%/2030 % flux by Bike 4-1-0 10-6-0 15-7-0 % flux by Bus 6 10 15
  52. 52. ADEME 2030-2050 calculations (GHG/MJ) Emissions de GES en MTCO2 et facteur de réduction (réf 1990) 0,0 0,5 1,0 1,5 2,0 2,5 3,0 3,5 4,0 4,5 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 71,2 17,7 32,1 40,6 21,9 10,1 14,5 11 3,5 121 72 29 0,00 5,00 10,00 15,00 20,00 25,00 30,00 35,00 40,00 45,00 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 38,5 1 24,5 2 12 5 CONSOMMATIONS ENERGETIQUES en MTEP (liquide/gaz et électricité) Liquide/Gaz Liquide/Gaz Liquide/Gaz Electricité Electricité Electricité GHG emission (MTCO2) and reduction factor ENERGY in MTEP • « standard » Progress • Electric, plug-in : first for PC serv • 2030 mix fleet : 100 gCO2/km 25 millions PC : 5% EV, 9% plug-in • 2050 mix fleet : 56 gCO2/km 16 millions PC : 28% EV, 38% plug-in Biofuel potential : •5 MTEP biogas •3 MTEP liquid (2G)
  53. 53. Vincent Besson : Change ahead will be as violent as the transition from horse to the automobile » Michel Serres : Digital evolution, 3rd of our species after writing and printing Stéphane Vial : « After the wood , wind, water, coal and steel , and thermal and electrical machines , digital is the new matrix ».
  54. 54. • The digital becomes the dominant technique. New Industrial empires are built around • The mutation of the object in the service is a chance • A new ecosystem is created , users are at the center , the data is the fuel ( renewable)
  55. 55. 61 MOOC Challenges et enjeux de la mobilité 2.0 • Startup definition : “temporary organization designed to search for a repea Innovation(s)
  56. 56. + Network Tool for simplification
  57. 57. par @15marches, Stéphane Schultz
  58. 58. PLATFORMS
  59. 59. PLATFORM North America Europe Africa & Latin America Asia Source: P. Evans, CGE; CB Insights, Capital IQ, CrunchBase, 2015
  60. 60. Source: Nicolas COLIN The Family, Hedge: A Greater Safety Net for the Entrepreneurial Age 2018
  61. 61. « Company Value in Digital economy : its capacity to capture positive externality created by the users »
  62. 62. UBER Partnerships
  63. 63. LIEN => LIEN =>
  64. 64. Open source vs Patents TESLA , TOYOTA Hydrogen ELON As A Platform, MP II, Hyperloop
  65. 65. Open Source Autopilot High number applications High Volume Of data More applications Car, truck, mini-bus More users, more Contributors More data to design Autopilot Higher volume Of Autopilot Lower price Of Autopilot
  66. 66. « Data is the new oil » : user irruption, knowledge access (but who will have the data ?)
  67. 67. How are we moving ? v1.0 (publ.)
  68. 68. How are we moving ? v2.0 (private)
  69. 69. Application Digital routes … « Bikability » How are we moving ? v2.0 (publ/private)
  70. 70. = Lot 2 Lot 3 Lot 4 How are we moving ? v2.0 (publ/private)
  71. 71. … by co-conception and experimentation Behavior CHANGE
  72. 72. TO Start, 3 wrong ideas… 11
  73. 73. 22
  74. 74. 33
  75. 75. … In SUMMARY:
  76. 76. HOW to DO this ? Décembre 2014
  77. 77. 3 barriers for Integra° & Simplifica° More info, clic here Identify & Synchronise Main competences Industry Behavior Skill acceptability City
  78. 78. Example Ha:Mo by Toyota VIDEO HA:Mo
  79. 79. Vehicle Evolutions bring by Behavior evolution Less is more … More info, clic here Car owned Car non-owned less km More pass/veh Car non-owned And operated less km More pass/veh More efficient
  80. 80. Integration & Simplification – DOUBLE Benefit ! More info, clic here Service Mobility brings : •Non-owned car •With New specifications •Used by citizens but not owned •Shared & operated •Using other energy •And much more efficient
  81. 81. It’s a system of computer working as a network (on wheels) V7.0 can activate Autopilot You see a car ?
  82. 82. IT’s a system of module in a vacuum tube created by a network of decentralised startups You see a new « train »
  83. 83. The major innovation will be not to own a car.. Smartphone, = new key
  84. 84. I
  85. 85. I
  86. 86. I
  87. 87. Driverless Cities
  88. 88. Calèche > Automobile > ?
  89. 89. 105 Innovations are changing… Uber, Waze, Blablacar, Drivy… and next ? New mobility behaviour at large scale Massives solutions Techno & Socio Identify, support and accelerate 1er sector for GHG, pollution, congestion FabMob version proto FABMOB A NEW WAY TO SUPPORT INNOVATION
  90. 90. Empower Entrepreneurs, Cities, Labs, Schools with Open Source for building sustainable Mobility 2 106 FabMob (NGO)
  91. 91. 107 BRINGING RESOURCES TO ENTREPRENEURS
  92. 92. Sans Android (et Linux, et iOS,...), votre mobile ne serait pas ce qu’il est 108juin 2017
  93. 93. Open Source is not anymore an option for Europe
  94. 94. 20 8Cities 7 930Persons clusters 300+startups 320 20+commons Companies Schools & labs communities 1+1 Wiki.fabmob.io Chat.fabmob.io 1 2000Network contacts 80 partners (09/2018) – France & Québec – Starting in Africa & Italy
  95. 95. Identification centralisée (login – mot de passe unique) - à finaliser - Wiki pour documenter Décrire, indexer les ressources Relier personnes, compétences, Projets, communs, communautés Chat pour discuter Sur tous les domaines Par communautés d’intérêt Site et Blog pour faire découvrir Présenter la Fabrique Et les adhérents Forum pour débattre Sur les principaux défis, Sur les actions à engager Pad pour rédiger ensemble Lors des ateliers, des événements Pour faciliter la documentation Et l’engagement d’actions collectives pour adhérer !! Et organiser la billeterie Des événements, AG et Ateliers
  96. 96. Create Open Assets useful for all stakeholders : data, soft and hardware 112
  97. 97. 113juin 2017 Les pouvoirs des communs ?
  98. 98. La Fabrique, une machine à créer des communs 114juin 2017 Une communauté (2 à 20) a besoin d’une ressource Est-elle existante et ouverte ? Indexation et documentation http://communs.lafabrique… Est-elle existante et fermée ? Accompagner l’ouverture Open Challenge Aider à la création Mutualisation, Co-financement, Choix de la licence Appel à commun OUI OUI NON NON NON
  99. 99. User Contributor Asset Community, Ecosystem License, Business Model Market Strategy New Culture
  100. 100. Market Education Research Idea Prototype MVP Available Improve Hubs Low cost Bike Sharing Connected Box Vehicle Open source Personal Tracker Ridesharing Certification Ridesharing DataBase Bike Vehicle Vehicle (behavior) Urbanism Mobility (behavior) Mobility Individual Acount Digital Transport 4 Africa
  101. 101. Research actions for Mobility 2.0 • Multi-field : socio to techno, ITS to logistic … • Users science : how generate confidance ? How to integrate new user behavior ? • Understanding & Optimisation of complex system, • New method to understand new demand, to design solutions with users and providers, • Tool for capitalisation in order to « industrialise » methodology (not the solutions) • Living labs, requested to test, design, validate
  102. 102. • Transition from Vehicle-object to Service is a chance for industry, citizen and environment, • New Value Chains, new actor, • Who will be multimodal mobility operator? • New ecosystem, user will be center • Data is the heart : to share • New culture to develop : education, learning in projects REMEMBER
  103. 103. http://fabmob.io http://wiki.fabmob.io http://gabrielplassat.fr

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