Commuting by motorcycle         impact analysisa study of Transport & Mobility Leuven for FEBIAC
Commuting by motorcycle1.Impact modal shift on traffic congestion     • Case study Leuven-Brussels     • Global impact on ...
Impact on traffic congestion    Case study Leuven-Brussels    1) Reference scenario: current morning peak (2011)    2) Sce...
Reference scenario (morning peak 2011)•Dynamic simulation of traffic flows by LTM•Realistic representation  in line with t...
Referentiescenario                                      9u30                                                        9u20  ...
Reference scenario (morning peak 2011)  Travel Times
Reference scenario (morning peak 2011)  Travel Times                           Total time loss                           (...
Modal shift scenario (morning peak 2011)Assumptions:•10% passenger cars replaced by motorcycles•Occupancy passenger car (c...
Modal shift scenario (morning peak 2011)Assumptions:•Passenger-Car-Equivalent (PCE) motorcycle  (How many cars would have ...
Referentiescenario                     9u30                                       9u20                                    ...
Modal shift scenario (morning peak 2011)  Travel Times
Modal shift scenario (morning peak 2011)  Travel Times                           Total time loss                          ...
Modal shift scenario (morning peak 2011)  Total time loss  (all vehicles Leuven-Brussels 6.30 – 9.30)  taking into account...
Modal shift scenario (morning peak 2011)  Travel Times                           25% modal shift                          ...
Global impact on traffic congestion  Extrapolate impact to Belgian highway network  Reference: 37.000 hours lost per day  ...
Global impact on traffic congestion  Impact on underlying road network:  - less (rat-run) traffic, shift to highway networ...
Impact on emissions    Emission factor ‘mean’ car (mean Belgian vehicle fleet)    Emission factor ‘recent’ motorcycle (250...
Impact on emissions   Total Emission costs (€/100 km)   (monetization based on environmental damage: NOX: 0.58 €/kg       ...
Impact on emissions   Total Emission costs in case study Leuven-Brussels:   (all vehicles Leuven-Brussels 6.30 – 9.30)    ...
ConclusionsImpact modal shift (10%) on traffic congestion:• Queues are shorter and disappear more quickly• Travel times ar...
Additional information    Isaak Yperman    Transport & Mobility Leuven    isaak@tmleuven.be    www.tmleuven.be    Stijn Va...
8.conference leuven study
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8.conference leuven study

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8.conference leuven study

  1. 1. Commuting by motorcycle impact analysisa study of Transport & Mobility Leuven for FEBIAC
  2. 2. Commuting by motorcycle1.Impact modal shift on traffic congestion • Case study Leuven-Brussels • Global impact on Belgian highway network2.Impact modal shift on traffic emissions • Emissions motorcycles vs. passenger cars • Case study Leuven-Brussels
  3. 3. Impact on traffic congestion Case study Leuven-Brussels 1) Reference scenario: current morning peak (2011) 2) Scenario 10% modal shift from car to motorcycle
  4. 4. Reference scenario (morning peak 2011)•Dynamic simulation of traffic flows by LTM•Realistic representation in line with traffic counts  42 detectors on 7 locations  May 2011, every 5 minutes: volumes, speeds, composition  Capacity network sections
  5. 5. Referentiescenario 9u30 9u20 9u10 9u00 8u50 8u40 8u30 8u20 8u10 8u00 7u50 7u40 7u30 7u20 7u10 7u00 6u50 6u40 Brussel Leuven Reference scenario - simulation results (6.30 – 9.30) Free-Flow Capacity Congestion
  6. 6. Reference scenario (morning peak 2011) Travel Times
  7. 7. Reference scenario (morning peak 2011) Travel Times Total time loss (all vehicles Leuven- Brussels 6.30 – 9.30) = 1925 hours
  8. 8. Modal shift scenario (morning peak 2011)Assumptions:•10% passenger cars replaced by motorcycles•Occupancy passenger car (commute) = 1.1•Occupancy motorcycle (commute) = 1.0
  9. 9. Modal shift scenario (morning peak 2011)Assumptions:•Passenger-Car-Equivalent (PCE) motorcycle (How many cars would have same effect on traffic flows?) • PCE = 1 for min. density • PCE = 0.5 at capacity • PCE = 0 for max. density
  10. 10. Referentiescenario 9u30 9u20 9u10 9u00 8u50 8u40 8u30 8u20 8u10 8u00 7u50 7u40 7u30 7u20 7u10 7u00 6u50 6u40 Brussel LeuvenScenario 10% modal shiftshiftScenario 10% modal 9u30 9u20 9u10 9u00 8u50 8u40 8u30 8u20 8u10 8u00 7u50 7u40 7u30 7u20 7u10 7u00 6u50 6u40 6u30 9u30 9u20 9u10 9u00 8u50 8u40 8u30 8u20 8u10 8u00 7u50 7u40 7u30 7u20 7u10 7u00 6u50 6u40 Brussel Leuven
  11. 11. Modal shift scenario (morning peak 2011) Travel Times
  12. 12. Modal shift scenario (morning peak 2011) Travel Times Total time loss (all vehicles Leuven- Brussels 6.30 – 9.30) = 706 hours (- 60% to reference)
  13. 13. Modal shift scenario (morning peak 2011) Total time loss (all vehicles Leuven-Brussels 6.30 – 9.30) taking into account newly attracted traffic on highway due to improved traffic conditions = 1158 hours (- 40% to reference)
  14. 14. Modal shift scenario (morning peak 2011) Travel Times 25% modal shift needed to avoid congestion
  15. 15. Global impact on traffic congestion Extrapolate impact to Belgian highway network Reference: 37.000 hours lost per day - 40% time lost in modal shift scenario Time savings: 15.000 hours per day Value of time commuter 13.96 €/h Time benefits: 210.000 € per day 50 Million € per year (indicative figure)
  16. 16. Global impact on traffic congestion Impact on underlying road network: - less (rat-run) traffic, shift to highway network - if also modal shift on underlying road network: similar time benefits
  17. 17. Impact on emissions Emission factor ‘mean’ car (mean Belgian vehicle fleet) Emission factor ‘recent’ motorcycle (250cc, Euro 3) (source: COPERT IV emission functions 2010) CO2 NOx PM2.5 HCEmissions CO2, NOX, PM2.5 lower for recent motorcycles
  18. 18. Impact on emissions Total Emission costs (€/100 km) (monetization based on environmental damage: NOX: 0.58 €/kg PM2.5: 135.5 €/kg HC: 7.5 €/kg CO2: 20 €/ton ‘mean’ car ‘recent’ motorcycle Emission costs 20% lower for recent motorcycles
  19. 19. Impact on emissions Total Emission costs in case study Leuven-Brussels: (all vehicles Leuven-Brussels 6.30 – 9.30) 6% lower in modal shift scenario c.t. reference 1% due to shift in traffic composition 5% due to avoided traffic congestion
  20. 20. ConclusionsImpact modal shift (10%) on traffic congestion:• Queues are shorter and disappear more quickly• Travel times are shorter• Total time losses reduced by 40%• Time benefits on Belgian highway network: 50 M€/yearImpact modal shift (10%) on traffic emissions:• Recent motorcycles emit less CO2, NOX, PM2.5, but more HC• Total emission costs 20% lower for recent motorcycles• Total case study emission costs 6% lower, 5% due to avoided congestion
  21. 21. Additional information Isaak Yperman Transport & Mobility Leuven isaak@tmleuven.be www.tmleuven.be Stijn Vancuyck FEBIAC SVC@febiac.be

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