SWINE SITUATION REPORT  2008 Prepared by:   Lary Nel B. Abao, MBA Bureau of Animal Industry-Marketing Development Division
I. Swine Industry Performance
Table 1.  Swine: Inventory by Classification and by Farm Type, as of January 1, 2006-2008 <ul><li>Total inventory in 2008 ...
Figure 1.  Distribution of Inventory by Classification,  Philippines, as of January 1, 2008 <ul><li>12% of inventory are s...
Figure 2.  Distribution of Inventory by Farm Type, Philippines, as of January 1, 2008 <ul><li>Backyard farms accounted for...
Table 2.  Swine Top Regions, in terms of Inventory  as of January 1, 2008 (no. of heads) <ul><li>Region III & CALABARZON a...
Table 3.  Inventory Series by Age and By Quarter, 2006 – 2007 (Number of Head) P – Preliminary estimates Source:  BAS
Table 4.  SWINE:  Total Farm Inventory, by Region, by Quarter, 2006-2007 <ul><li>Almost half (45%) of swine inventory came...
Table 5.  SWINE: Volume of Production, by Quarter, 2005-2007 (in metric tons) <ul><li>Total volume of  </li></ul><ul><li>p...
Table 6.  SWINE: Volume of Production, by Quarter, by Region 2005-2007 (in metric tons) Source:  BAS
Table 7.  SUPPLY AND DISPOSITION, PHILIPPINES, 2005-2007(Number of live animals) <ul><li>Total hogs disposed/slaughtered r...
Source:  BAI-MDD
II.  Analysis of Feed Ingredients Prices Source:  BAI-MDD
III.  Analysis of Hog Commercial Mixed Feeds Prices Source:  BAI-MDD Note: Only hog pre-starter mash is sold in 25-kg bags
Figure 6.  Logistics Situation: Hogs (Live) Source: BAI-MDD; UNDP Study on Seed to Shelf HOG FARM P.72/kg P0.17/kg P12.42/...
Figure 7.  Carabeef Imports (in Kgs), 2003-08 Source: BAI-NVQS
Table 8.  Carabeef Imports (in Kgs), 2008 Source: BAI-NVQS Month Forequarter Trimmings Grand Total Jan 5,859,954 951,000 6...
Figure 8.  Pork Imports (in Kgs), 2003-08 Source: BAI-NVQS
Table 9.  Pork Imports (in Kgs), 2008 Source: BAI-NVQS Note: *MDM Month Bellies Pork Cuts Deboned* Fats Offals Rind/Skin G...
CURRENT:  Supply = Production current  + Total Imports <ul><ul><li>where HProd = c + FAT t-1  +   GROW t-1  + SOW t-4  +  ...
Figure 9.  Quarterly Hog Production, Philippines, 2006-2009F  (in '000 MT)
Table 10.  Quarterly Hog Production, 2006-2009F  (in '000 MT) Month Production Percent Change Actual Forecast 07/06 08/07 ...
Table 11.  Quarterly Pork Imports,  2006 - 2008F ('000 MT) Qtr Year % Change 2007 2008 2009 08/07 09/08 Q1 2.05  4.83  12....
Figure 10.  Quarterly Pork Supply, Phils.,  2006-2009F ('000 MT)
Table 12.  Quarterly Pork Supply, 2007-2009F  ('000 MT) Qtr 2007 2008 2008 2009 % Change 2008F min 2008F 2008F max 2009F m...
CURRENT: Regression Model Dependent Variable  – based on household pork consumption of FIES (1994-2003) Independent variab...
Figure 11.  Quarterly Pork Demand, Philippines, 2007-2009F  ('000 MT)* F - Forecast *used 70% to convert as carcass
Table 13.  Quarterly Pork Demand,  2007-2009F ('000 MT) Qtr Year % Change 2007 2008 min 2008 2008 max 2009F min 2009F 2009...
IX. Pork Supply & Demand Forecast  for 2008
Figure 12.  Quarterly Pork Supply vis-a-vis Demand,  2007-2009F ('000 MT) F - Forecast * Actual Demand estimated by PCE
Figure 13.  Pork Supply and Demand, Quarterly,  2007-2009F ('000 MT)
Thank you very much!
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Lery Abao Presentation Farm Foundation

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Philippine Swine Situation Report 2008

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Lery Abao Presentation Farm Foundation

  1. 1. SWINE SITUATION REPORT 2008 Prepared by: Lary Nel B. Abao, MBA Bureau of Animal Industry-Marketing Development Division
  2. 2. I. Swine Industry Performance
  3. 3. Table 1. Swine: Inventory by Classification and by Farm Type, as of January 1, 2006-2008 <ul><li>Total inventory in 2008 stood at 13.7 M heads up by 1.8% vs. 2007 </li></ul><ul><li>Total sow is up by 2.1% </li></ul><ul><li>Fatteners/finishers are up by 1.85% </li></ul><ul><li>Growers are up by 1.99%. </li></ul>Source: BAS
  4. 4. Figure 1. Distribution of Inventory by Classification, Philippines, as of January 1, 2008 <ul><li>12% of inventory are sow </li></ul><ul><li>24% and 29% of inventory are fatteners/finishers and growers, respectively. </li></ul>Source: BAS
  5. 5. Figure 2. Distribution of Inventory by Farm Type, Philippines, as of January 1, 2008 <ul><li>Backyard farms accounted for 71% of the total swine inventory. </li></ul><ul><li>Commercial farm shared around 29% percent of the total swine stock </li></ul>Source: BAS
  6. 6. Table 2. Swine Top Regions, in terms of Inventory as of January 1, 2008 (no. of heads) <ul><li>Region III & CALABARZON are the top regions for commercial accounted for about 65%. </li></ul><ul><li>Region VI and Region VIII are the top regions for backyard accounted for about 23%. </li></ul>Source: BAS
  7. 7. Table 3. Inventory Series by Age and By Quarter, 2006 – 2007 (Number of Head) P – Preliminary estimates Source: BAS
  8. 8. Table 4. SWINE: Total Farm Inventory, by Region, by Quarter, 2006-2007 <ul><li>Almost half (45%) of swine inventory came from Luzon </li></ul>Source: BAS
  9. 9. Table 5. SWINE: Volume of Production, by Quarter, 2005-2007 (in metric tons) <ul><li>Total volume of </li></ul><ul><li>production in 2007 </li></ul><ul><li>was recorded at </li></ul><ul><li>1,886.01 m.t. up </li></ul><ul><li>by 2.72% vs 2006 . </li></ul>Source: BAS
  10. 10. Table 6. SWINE: Volume of Production, by Quarter, by Region 2005-2007 (in metric tons) Source: BAS
  11. 11. Table 7. SUPPLY AND DISPOSITION, PHILIPPINES, 2005-2007(Number of live animals) <ul><li>Total hogs disposed/slaughtered recorded at 22.3 M head about 14 hogs disposed/sow/year </li></ul><ul><li>2007 mortalities went up by 9.0% against 2006. </li></ul><ul><li>About 12% mortalities out of total pigs born . </li></ul>Source: BAS
  12. 12. Source: BAI-MDD
  13. 13. II. Analysis of Feed Ingredients Prices Source: BAI-MDD
  14. 14. III. Analysis of Hog Commercial Mixed Feeds Prices Source: BAI-MDD Note: Only hog pre-starter mash is sold in 25-kg bags
  15. 15. Figure 6. Logistics Situation: Hogs (Live) Source: BAI-MDD; UNDP Study on Seed to Shelf HOG FARM P.72/kg P0.17/kg P12.42/kg P0.17/kg P2.31 P0.84/kg --- P18.65 Slaughter house • GSC Port • stevedoring • arastre Manila Port • stevedoring • arastre Includes • shipping • feeds • labor • shrinkage • mortality P93.00/kg • P4.00 Shipper’s Margin P100.48/kg • P4.50 Wholesaler’s Margin P126.78kg • P17.31 supermarket’s margin P144.09/kg P157.07kg • P30.29 Wet market’s margin
  16. 16. Figure 7. Carabeef Imports (in Kgs), 2003-08 Source: BAI-NVQS
  17. 17. Table 8. Carabeef Imports (in Kgs), 2008 Source: BAI-NVQS Month Forequarter Trimmings Grand Total Jan 5,859,954 951,000 6,810,954 Feb 4,633,976 587,524 5,221,500 Mar 4,673,968 921,916 5,595,884 Apr 5,754,522 756,000 6,510,522 May 4,802,536 727,000 5,529,536 Jun 5,335,944 642,992 5,978,936 Jul 3,795,860 587,000 4,382,860 Aug 6,505,018 446,716 6,951,734   Total 41,361,778 5,620,148 46,981,926
  18. 18. Figure 8. Pork Imports (in Kgs), 2003-08 Source: BAI-NVQS
  19. 19. Table 9. Pork Imports (in Kgs), 2008 Source: BAI-NVQS Note: *MDM Month Bellies Pork Cuts Deboned* Fats Offals Rind/Skin Grand Total Jan 397,992 980,313 27,000 2,712,180 2,428,992 967,450 7,513,927 Feb 492,644 1,099,421 27,000 2,646,304 2,272,701 976,505 7,514,575 Mar 302,656 1,552,252 26,336 2,683,102 2,225,168 1,314,179 8,103,692 Apr 1,102,036 3,057,945 107,433 3,497,274 1,963,047 1,620,403 11,348,137 May 1,284,928 4,450,990 103,020 3,768,311 3,038,323 1,241,905 13,887,477 Jun 1,032,637 3,989,881 27,000 3,807,187 2,585,728 1,354,184 12,796,616 Jul 976,653 4,876,783 27,000 2,286,650 2,687,711 1,184,443 12,039,241 Aug 913,934 3,753,651 105,495 1,850,226 2,510,679 1,117,116 10,251,101   Total 6,503,480 23,761,236 450,284 23,251,235 19,712,348 9,776,185 83,454,768
  20. 20. CURRENT: Supply = Production current + Total Imports <ul><ul><li>where HProd = c + FAT t-1 + GROW t-1 + SOW t-4 + e </li></ul></ul>VII. Pork Supply Forecast for 2008
  21. 21. Figure 9. Quarterly Hog Production, Philippines, 2006-2009F (in '000 MT)
  22. 22. Table 10. Quarterly Hog Production, 2006-2009F (in '000 MT) Month Production Percent Change Actual Forecast 07/06 08/07 09/08 2006 2007 2008 2008 2009 min mean min mean Q1 450.27 462.08 442.70     460.93 479.75 2.62 (4.19) 8.37 Q2 439.18 454.58 434.25     495.63 514.45 3.51 (4.47) 18.47 SEM1 889.45 916.66 876.95     956.56 994.20 3.06 (4.33) 13.37 Q3 432.45 438.97   448.25 467.06     1.51 6.40 #DIV/0! Q4 514.24 530.38   546.65 565.47     3.14 6.62 #DIV/0! SEM2 946.69 969.35   994.90 1032.53     2.39 6.52   ANNUAL 1,836.14 1,886.00 876.95 994.90 1,032.53     2.72 1.24  
  23. 23. Table 11. Quarterly Pork Imports, 2006 - 2008F ('000 MT) Qtr Year % Change 2007 2008 2009 08/07 09/08 Q1 2.05 4.83 12.16 135.36 151.98 Q2 2.68 14.92 12.20 456.87 (18.22) Sem 1 4.73 19.74 24.36 317.49 23.38 Q3 5.06 12.07   138.84   Q4 3.66 12.12   230.72   Sem 2 8.72 24.19 0.00 177.45   Total 13.45 43.93 24.36 226.70   F - Forecast
  24. 24. Figure 10. Quarterly Pork Supply, Phils., 2006-2009F ('000 MT)
  25. 25. Table 12. Quarterly Pork Supply, 2007-2009F ('000 MT) Qtr 2007 2008 2008 2009 % Change 2008F min 2008F 2008F max 2009F min 2009F 2009F max 08/07 09Fmin/ 08 09F/ 08 09Fmax/08 Q1 325.51 314.72       334.95 347.98 361.02 (3.32) 6.43 10.57 14.71 Q2 320.88 318.89       359.27 372.31 385.35 (0.62) 12.66 16.75 20.84 Sem 1 646.39 633.61       694.22 720.30 746.37 (1.98) 9.57 13.68 17.80 Q3 312.34   325.98 339.02 352.06       (100.00) #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! Q4 374.93   394.90 407.94 420.98       (100.00) #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! Sem 2 687.26 0.00 720.89 746.96 773.04 0.00 0.00 0.00 (100.00)       Total 1,333.65 633.61 720.89 746.96 773.04 694.22 720.30 746.37 3.52 9.57 13.68 17.80 F–Forecast
  26. 26. CURRENT: Regression Model Dependent Variable – based on household pork consumption of FIES (1994-2003) Independent variables : PCE at current prices, wholesale price of pork in MM Error term is normal, heteroscedastic, has serial correlation but no multicollinearity R 2 = 95.9% MAPE = 2.08% <ul><ul><li>where HDem = c + PCE c + WPP BAS + e </li></ul></ul>VIII. Pork Demand Forecast for 2008
  27. 27. Figure 11. Quarterly Pork Demand, Philippines, 2007-2009F ('000 MT)* F - Forecast *used 70% to convert as carcass
  28. 28. Table 13. Quarterly Pork Demand, 2007-2009F ('000 MT) Qtr Year % Change 2007 2008 min 2008 2008 max 2009F min 2009F 2009F max 08Fmin/ 07 08F/ 07 08Fmax/07 09Fmin/ 08F 09F/ 08F 09Fmax/ 08F Q1 307.99 299.65 311.79 323.93 309.71 321.85 333.99 (2.71) 1.23 5.17 (0.67) 3.23 7.12 Q2 326.49 309.69 321.83 333.97 345.55 357.69 369.83 (5.15) (1.43) 2.29 7.37 11.14 14.92 Sem 1 634.48 609.33 633.61 657.89 655.26 679.54 703.82 (3.96) (0.14) 3.69 3.42 7.25 11.08 Q3 328.91 324.15 336.29 348.43       (1.45) 2.24 5.94 (100.00) (100.00) (100.00) Q4 373.39 370.65 382.79 394.93       (0.74) 2.52 5.77 (100.00) (100.00) (100.00) Sem 2 702.30 694.80 719.08 743.36       (1.07) 2.39 5.85       Total 1,336.78 1,304.13 1,352.69 1,401.25 655.26 679.54 703.82 (2.44) 1.19 4.82       F-Forecast Revised PCE from NSCB Latest FIES is 2006 from NSO 2006 pork fies based on 2003 ratio
  29. 29. IX. Pork Supply & Demand Forecast for 2008
  30. 30. Figure 12. Quarterly Pork Supply vis-a-vis Demand, 2007-2009F ('000 MT) F - Forecast * Actual Demand estimated by PCE
  31. 31. Figure 13. Pork Supply and Demand, Quarterly, 2007-2009F ('000 MT)
  32. 32. Thank you very much!

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